Ideas and predictions for trains serving Old Oak Common station

[Horizon22]

Personally I think it’s unlikley that any GW long distance services call at OOC, as the total journey time loss for ‘existing’ passengers will be far greater than the gain for those who do find it quicker / easier to change at OOC. Given future plans for the GWML, it will be necessary to stop everything on the main lines there, or nothing.

Indeed if there was a book on such things, I’d have a tenner on the Main (fast) line platforms not being built at all. Seems to be a lot of cash to spend to make things worse.

I concur mostly. I imagine there will be some benefit for at least something from the GWML to stop at OOC, but that will depend on GWR's service patterns at the time, space in the timetable for a suitable intercity stop without blocking several others in the rear and some demand analysis. That might help with everyone else changing at Reading to connect although nobody long-distance enjoys an extra change.

 

[Mikey C]

Brain teaser: The station will open from new with 14 platforms. Is that a UK record for a new station?

The only international comparitor I can think of is Berlin Hauptbahnhof, also 14 platforms (plus U-bahn).

I knew it was going to be a major station, but hadn't realised quite how large it will be. That's really impressive, unusual ambition for the UK, and there's the potential for additional nearby platforms on the Overground or the proposed Chiltern Line platforms as well

 

[The Planner]

However I am concerned that stopping all the GWML fast services at OOC does not serve well those passengers who journeys require them to use the Bakerloo, Circle, District and Hammersmith and City lines for their onward journey from Paddington. These lines cover a larger area of London than does Crossrail. A stop at OOC will add five or six minutes to their journey, making the Reading to Paddington journey time just about equivalent to that possible with a Class 52 on 10 coaches.

Back to the 1960s...it'll be as if the HST never existed.

That isn't comparing apples with apples though is it? Where does the 6 minutes come from, a stop at Reading doesn't even cost that much time. What would be the time taken for a Class 52 with 10 to do the same journey with a stop at OOC?

 

[pdeaves]

Indeed if there was a book on such things, I’d have a tenner on the Main (fast) line platforms not being built at all. Seems to be a lot of cash to spend to make things worse.

Whether GWR 'intercity' trains call or not, the main line platforms will be provided. They would be used for "two track railway" when there is planned maintenance on the relief line side. As a very small comparison, Burnham and Pangbourne cannot have trains calling when services have to use the main lines. I do not see somewhere as important as OOC going without; some maintenance provision will be provided, even with minimal facilities for occasional use.

 

[edwin_m]

Got to ask what the rationale is for Heathrow Express after Crossrail fully opens. Who's going to use it?

For a start, Heathrow passengers to and from the north changing at OOC, to keep them separate from Crossrail commuters. There's also the possibility of extending these services via a future Southern Link to Staines and beyond, linking those places to HS2 and new development around OOC as well as to Heathrow. Either would require Hex to become a more run-of-the-mill outer-suburban service rather than one with premium quality and premium fares.

 

[coppercapped]

It’s also what is known as the ‘Birmingham Airport connectivity’ project, part of the Midlands Hub proposals, and odds on to happen.

Thank you for the information. With the current patterns of service it does make sense - but as a way to get to Birmingham it does seem a long way round. Coventry is to the east of Leamington, north of Kenilworth one is going backwards!

 

[HSTEd]

For a start, Heathrow passengers to and from the north changing at OOC, to keep them separate from Crossrail commuters. There's also the possibility of extending these services via a future Southern Link to Staines and beyond, linking those places to HS2 and new development around OOC as well as to Heathrow. Either would require Hex to become a more run-of-the-mill outer-suburban service rather than one with premium quality and premium fares.

Given that Crossrail is de-facto an outer suburban service now that it runs to Reading, I'm not at all convinced by the argument that HEx has to be kept separate to operate either of those options.

I'm not sure how many commuters would use a Crossrail train that runs non-stop between OOC and Heathrow Airport.....

 

[Ianno87]

For a start, Heathrow passengers to and from the north changing at OOC, to keep them separate from Crossrail commuters. There's also the possibility of extending these services via a future Southern Link to Staines and beyond, linking those places to HS2 and new development around OOC as well as to Heathrow. Either would require Hex to become a more run-of-the-mill outer-suburban service rather than one with premium quality and premium fares.

Logically, taking an evening peak as an example, the number of people getting off Crossrail trains from Zone 1 at Old Oak (to change onto HS2 northwards) will create more than enough space on the train for the relatively fewer (in comparison) number of passengers then joining to reach Heathrow having alighted from HS2 from the north.

 

[MarlowDonkey]

Given that Crossrail is de-facto an outer suburban service now that it runs to Reading,

It's an all stations service though. Both Stansted and Gatwick have non-stop or limited stop services. GWR continue to run semi fast services between Reading and Paddington.

 

[Ianno87]

It's an all stations service though. Both Stansted and Gatwick have non-stop or limited stop services. GWR continue to run semi fast services between Reading and Paddington.

Gatwick/Stansted are however much further from Central London so the penalty for a slow train would be much higher.

Plus the fast trains serve dual purposes (e.g Brighton/Harlow etc respectively)

 

[Mikey C]

For a start, Heathrow passengers to and from the north changing at OOC, to keep them separate from Crossrail commuters. There's also the possibility of extending these services via a future Southern Link to Staines and beyond, linking those places to HS2 and new development around OOC as well as to Heathrow. Either would require Hex to become a more run-of-the-mill outer-suburban service rather than one with premium quality and premium fares.

Once HEx gets 387s it will already be slightly downgraded from the 332s which look and feel special

 

[si404]

Got to ask what the rationale is for Heathrow Express after Crossrail fully opens. Who's going to use it?

The premium on the product is less justifiable post-Liz, sure, but the Elizabeth line doesn't negate the need for other trains between Heathrow and London. 6tph, of which only 2tph go to Terminal 5 is not enough. There's not the room on the reliefs for more trains through Ealing Broadway. They might still carry a premium, but it might not be as big of one as currently.

Crossrail doesn't necessarily get people closer to their destinations - many will gain direct service, sure. Others will lose a change. However, there will still be people needing to change trains at Paddington, or picking up a taxi or bus there, or whatever. As such, going fast into the Brunel shed is going to be more appealing than stopping 6 or 7 more times (T5 trains skip Acton Main Line) into the new station and ending up no closer to where you want to be at Paddington (and further from taxis / H&C). Ditto with Old Oak Common - if you are changing there, do you get the train that stops repeatedly, or the one that goes non-stop?

Bare in mind that the Gatwick Express charging higher fees still exists, despite 4tph to Victoria from Gatwick making only two stops (East Croydon and Clapham Junction) as well as 4tph Thameslink only stopping at East Croydon before London Bridge. The differential between HEx and Liz at T5 is that the Liz is half the frequency and stops 6 times more en route to Paddington.

It's an all stations service though.

Not quite: Reading trains skip Acton Main Line and Hanwell. Oh, and at peak times, half of them will only stop at Twyford, Maidenhead, Slough, West Drayton and Ealing Broadway (off-peak the GWR Relief Line semi-fasts stop at the same stops other than Hayes & Harlington rather than West Drayton).

 

[The Planner]

Thank you for the information. With the current patterns of service it does make sense - but as a way to get to Birmingham it does seem a long way round. Coventry is to the east of Leamington, north of Kenilworth one is going backwards!

Its more to do with the other direction, the Airport want more direct connections to the East Mids and further afield.

 

[quantinghome]

Gatwick/Stansted are however much further from Central London so the penalty for a slow train would be much higher.

Also, Gatwick/Stansted expresses unlike HeX actually serve central London

In all seriousness there is bound to be a major drop in HeX passenger numbers once Crossrail is fully open. It will remain a marginally quicker for a minority of passengers and significantly costlier for everyone.

For a start, Heathrow passengers to and from the north changing at OOC, to keep them separate from Crossrail commuters. There's also the possibility of extending these services via a future Southern Link to Staines and beyond, linking those places to HS2 and new development around OOC as well as to Heathrow. Either would require Hex to become a more run-of-the-mill outer-suburban service rather than one with premium quality and premium fares.

This means Heathrow passengers alighting from HS2 at OOC will have a choice of service. Is that necessary? Wouldn't passengers just take the next train, whether Crossrail or HeX? Crossrail will be more frequent with 6tph planned for Heathrow and perhaps 8tph in the future.

I can see that some passengers would want to use HeX in preference to Crossrail. But it does seem like a bit of a nice to have given how many slots it takes up on the GW mains.

 

[si404]

Its more to do with the other direction, the Airport want more direct connections to the East Mids and further afield.

Surely it's also about
1) Meshing frequencies - if every service via the Airport is 2tph or multiple thereof, then the timetable works well
2) Not dropping Coventry off the IC network after being bypassed by HS2, and in fact improving its links to Oxford, Reading and the South and creating them to Derby and Yorkshire
3) Keeping the 4tph Coventry - International - New Street limited-stop pattern (and making it more clockface)

 

[edwin_m]

This means Heathrow passengers alighting from HS2 at OOC will have a choice of service. Is that necessary? Wouldn't passengers just take the next train, whether Crossrail or HeX? Crossrail will be more frequent with 6tph planned for Heathrow and perhaps 8tph in the future.

We don't know how many stops Crossrail Heathrow trains would be making at this rather distant future juncture, but if it's more than about four out of six then most Crossrail trains will be overtaken. There may also be issues of dwell time if people with luggage are trying to get onto a crowded train in the evening peak.

So it may or may not be appropriate to put OCC-Heathrow passengers onto Crossrail, but nobody has addressed the other point I made was the considerable benefit of extending what is now the Hex service via a Southern Link. Serving OOC with this service ties a large slice of population into HS2. You wouldn't want to do it with Crossrail (at least beyond a bay platform at Staines) as it would need a different type, length and fit-out of train.

 

[quantinghome]

... but nobody has addressed the other point I made was the considerable benefit of extending what is now the Hex service via a Southern Link. Serving OOC with this service ties a large slice of population into HS2. You wouldn't want to do it with Crossrail (at least beyond a bay platform at Staines) as it would need a different type, length and fit-out of train.

Agreed, in which case HeX would become similar to Gatwick express (but with added OOC!). But how far away is a Southern link? Seems like it's been going round in circles for years. A solution (admittedly a partial one) requiring zero additional infrastructure would be to run a Paddington-OOC-Reading-Basingstoke-Southampton service.

 

[HSTEd]

We don't know how many stops Crossrail Heathrow trains would be making at this rather distant future juncture, but if it's more than about four out of six then most Crossrail trains will be overtaken. There may also be issues of dwell time if people with luggage are trying to get onto a crowded train in the evening peak.

But Crossrail is no more inherently restricted to a certain stopping pattern than HEx is.
It only takes a relatively minor modification in terms of providing a flyover to allow Crossrail trains onto the fast lines at OOC.

Then we can have a notional "branch" that is on the fast lines instead of the slow.

This incidentally allows the elimination of the GWR semi fasts to Reading as they could also be folded into Crossrail.

That frees significant capacity at Paddington for other things.

So it may or may not be appropriate to put OCC-Heathrow passengers onto Crossrail, but nobody has addressed the other point I made was the considerable benefit of extending what is now the Hex service via a Southern Link. Serving OOC with this service ties a large slice of population into HS2. You wouldn't want to do it with Crossrail (at least beyond a bay platform at Staines) as it would need a different type, length and fit-out of train.

Isn't the service on the SWML essentially rigged for 200m trains anyway?
And aren't the core stations on the Crossrail infrastructure built to allow 240m trains anyway?

Given the relatively short travel time from running fast to Heathrow, I'm not convinced that the trains will end up with unacceptable running times, at least as far as somewhere like Woking, if thats where you want to go.
And interiors..... the quality of commuter interiors is pretty awful anyway.

 

[edwin_m]

That frees significant capacity at Paddington for other things.

What else could be done at Paddington with its only route in and out being via a capacity-constrained station at OOC (we came in on a suggestion that stopping trains on the Fasts would be difficult)?

Isn't the service on the SWML essentially rigged for 200m trains anyway?
And aren't the core stations on the Crossrail infrastructure built to allow 240m trains anyway?

The other reason I should have mentioned was that Crossrail wouldn't want their trains to be exposed to risk of delay on a network as complex as the South Western.

 

[edwin_m]

Agreed, in which case HeX would become similar to Gatwick express (but with added OOC!). But how far away is a Southern link? Seems like it's been going round in circles for years. A solution (admittedly a partial one) requiring zero additional infrastructure would be to run a Paddington-OOC-Reading-Basingstoke-Southampton service.

We don't know how far away it is, but it might credibly appear before HS2 phase 2.

 

[HSTEd]

What else could be done at Paddington with its only route in and out being via a capacity-constrained station at OOC (we came in on a suggestion that stopping trains on the Fasts would be difficult)?

Well setting aside partial redevelopment for non railway applications.

It still has a potential future use as a high speed rail terminal.
It is unlikely that all long distance transport demand forever will be satisified with Euston, and the number of potential station sites in London is vanishingly small.

 

[si404]

It will remain a marginally quicker for a minority of passengers

9 minutes quicker from Terminal 5 (21 vs 30), 8 minutes quicker for T2/T3 (15 vs 23). That's not 'marginally'. Especially with percentages: it's 70% of the time from T5, and 65% of the time from T2/T3.

significantly costlier for everyone.

Does the price have to remain the same? Of course not!

The price of HEx will be the main change to it due to the Elizabeth Line.

Wouldn't passengers just take the next train, whether Crossrail or HeX? Crossrail will be more frequent

From Central, sure 4 vs 6. For Terminal 5, however it's 4tph vs 2tph - more than half the time, HEx will be the next train. The extra 2tph is highly unlikely to happen due to a lack of space on the reliefs, HAL owning the track at Heathrow and the lawsuit demanding reasonableness in terms of access fees only really covering the 6tph.

But it does seem like a bit of a nice to have given how many slots it takes up on the GW mains.

If only there was room on the reliefs for more Heathrow services - they are the more constrained pair of tracks.

The Mains need HEx to allow calls at Slough or slewing over to the Reliefs at Maidenhead. The Dec '19 timetable, at the peak, had the same number of trains (16+4 HEx) as the 2043 Unconstrained Indicative Train Service Specification from the Western Route Study, so it's not like there's call for moving HEx off the Mains to add service there.

 

[The Planner]

Surely it's also about
1) Meshing frequencies - if every service via the Airport is 2tph or multiple thereof, then the timetable works well
2) Not dropping Coventry off the IC network after being bypassed by HS2, and in fact improving its links to Oxford, Reading and the South and creating them to Derby and Yorkshire
3) Keeping the 4tph Coventry - International - New Street limited-stop pattern (and making it more clockface)

They are important, but not top of the list. This has been on the list of aims irrespective of HS2 happening and still would be if HS2 was cancelled.

 

[si404]

This has been on the list of aims irrespective of HS2 happening and still would be if HS2 was cancelled.

It would be an aim, but it would be far harder to do!

Unless you simply move stuff around and pair different IC services either side of Birmingham.

 

[Ianno87]

But Crossrail is no more inherently restricted to a certain stopping pattern than HEx is.
It only takes a relatively minor modification in terms of providing a flyover to allow Crossrail trains onto the fast lines at OOC.

The flyover is probably the easy bit.

Finding paths on the Main Lines for 90mph Crossrail trains and fundamentally meshing the operation of the GWML main lines and Crossrail core, an order of magnitude harder.

 

[quantinghome]

9 minutes quicker from Terminal 5 (21 vs 30), 8 minutes quicker for T2/T3 (15 vs 23). That's not 'marginally'. Especially with percentages: it's 70% of the time from T5, and 65% of the time from T2/T3.

The vast majority of passenger will use HEx or Crossrail as part of a longer journey. How much of an inconvenience is that additional time going to be for long distance airline passengers, or those using HS2? The superior frequency of Crossrail means it'll be quicker unless a HEx train is imminent.

Does the price have to remain the same? Of course not!

The price of HEx will be the main change to it due to the Elizabeth Line.

Assuming you mean the price will drop in response to competition from Crossrail, won't this just make the service less economic to run? Or are they going to increase the fares given those using it attach a high value to those saved 7 or 8 minutes and won't be moving?

 

[si404]

The vast majority of passenger will use HEx or Crossrail as part of a longer journey. How much of an inconvenience is that additional time going to be for long distance airline passengers, or those using HS2?

Depends - if you are going Heathrow to Gloucester, or Heathrow to Stafford or having some other hourly onward connection, those minutes might save a whole hour off your journey!

You also have to deal with factors like "would you rather spend 8 or 9 minutes on a train, or waiting at an airport/station with its facilities like shops, cafes, restaurants designed to make waiting more pleasurable?".

The superior frequency of Crossrail

Undoubtedly superior from T4 (4 vs 0), slightly superior from Central (6 vs 4), significantly inferior from T5 (4 vs 2).

And if a HEx is just after a Liz at Central, then people might wait because they'd be at Old Oak / Paddington faster. That depends on how much the premium is, and how much time they save. Certainly they do it for Mets that get overtaken by Chilterns.

Let's say the 10tph (4+4+2) at Central going to London fit into a 5 minute headway pattern:
00: HEx
05: Liz from T4
10: Liz from T5
15: Hex
20: Liz from T4
25: blank
and repeat for 30 to 55

Then from 10-15, 20-30, 40-45 and 50-00, HEx is the next train. That's 30 minutes of each hour - half the time!

Let's flip it round then:
00: Liz from T4
05: HEx
10: Liz from T5
15: Liz from T4
20: Hex
25: blank
and repeat for 30 to 55

That's still 20 minutes (4 lots of 5 minutes) when HEx is next. And HEx would overtake the Lizzies from T4, which might mean people wait for the HEx.

And let's look at T5:
- the first pattern, maximising 'HEx-is-next' at Central puts the Liz 10 minutes behind the HEx, getting 20 minutes where it's the next train (but the HEx will overtake the Liz, so will always get you to OOC/Paddington fastest - which would be a selling point that will get people on HEx)
- the second pattern, minimising 'HEx-is-next' at Central puts the Liz 5 minutes behind the HEx, getting just 10 minutes an hour when it's the next train.

Assuming you mean the price will drop in response to competition from Crossrail, won't this just make the service less economic to run?

Not at all - it makes it more economical. Basic supply and demand!

Let's say continuing with a £20 fare means they get 10 passengers per train as most people decide that the £10 premium is too high a price - that's £200/train in revenue.
But if they lowered it to £12 - a premium of about £2 vs TfL - they might be able to persuade 150 passengers to board each train. Because £2 could very well be worth the quicker time to OOC/Paddington vs TfL. That's £1800/train in revenue.

HEx is running the trains whatever, but demand is much lowered due to the competition, so it needs to maximise revenue per train. The marginal costs per passenger are low, so it has two ways to go - rely on a handful of total idiots paying £100 each (perhaps because it is £100), or getting the masses on by not charging that much more than TfL.

 

[The Planner]

It would be an aim, but it would be far harder to do!

Unless you simply move stuff around and pair different IC services either side of Birmingham.

Involves partial re-doubling of Leamington to Cov, which is a scheme that is also likely to happen as well. That unlocks some of it.

 

[coppercapped]

Yet everything still must stop at your precious Reading for the commuters to crowd it out? OOC is arguably much more useful and important, and I hope everything does stop there.
SNIP.

Where did you get the impression that I said that everything must stop at Reading?

That isn't comparing apples with apples though is it? Where does the 6 minutes come from, a stop at Reading doesn't even cost that much time. What would be the time taken for a Class 52 with 10 to do the same journey with a stop at OOC?

I wrote five or six minutes. If one allows a two minute station stop at OOC and a minute and a half lost in braking and another minute in accelerating to an 80mph line speed (or thereabouts) for the last couple of miles into Paddington the train will, on these figures, take about four and a half minutes longer to reach its destination. So I exaggerated a bit - but not much. One thing the Corona virus has shown is that without passengers trains can maintain their sectional timings quite well; at the start of the 'lockdown' it was reported that on some days all trains were on time. So it seems that the timetable rules have underestimated the dwell times needed for normal passenger flows and especially those needed at peak times.

It may well be that future timetables will have to allow another half minute or so for stops to enable trains to be more punctual. So add another 30 seconds to the OOC stop. Makes five minutes.

In the days of steam express trains from Paddington needed about 40 minutes to a stop in Reading. A Hall needed a minute or two more, a Castle a minute or two less. Day to day train speeds were about 70 to 75mph, Castles and Kings in good nick reached 80mph and on an exciting day 85mph. The first diesels got the time down to 35 or 36 minutes - even time! - and then the Class 47s, 50s and 52s together with some judicious track improvements eventually got the time down to 28 to 30 minutes depending on load. In the reverse direction the time was about a minute longer because of the slower approach to Paddington than that at Reading. As a rule of thumb an intermediate stop in the Down direction, at Maidenhead or Twyford for example, cost about five minutes with the sharp braking then common. A theoretical stop at OOC in the Down direction would not have quite the same effect as the train probably wouldn't have reached 70mph before it had to brake - so four and a half minutes.

Real Time Trains shows that IETs are now typically scheduled for 23mins down, so adding another four or five minutes for a stop at OOC will, as I wrote, make the Paddington - Reading time equivalent, within a minute or so, to that achieved 50 years ago. This slowing will carry right through to the end of the journey - it is not, repeat not, simply an issue that effects Reading.

I have seen no published figures showing the expected numbers of people wanting to get from the Thames Valley to Birmingham by changing at OOC. And it is only Birmingham and points north which come into question as HS2 doesn't serve intermediate stations and such passengers will continue to use existing routes. Is this number large - or small? For the proposal to stop most or all expresses at OOC to be acceptable there had better be a large number of people on every GW express - and there will be 12 each hour - making the change at OOC otherwise the majority will suffer for the few.

I have no issue with stopping the suburban services at OOC - that does make a lot of sense. But one has to be very, very clear about what one is trying to achieve if the expresses are stopped there.

 

[Ianno87]

Real Time Trains shows that IETs are now typically scheduled for 23mins down, so adding another four or five minutes for a stop at OOC will, as I wrote, make the Paddington - Reading time equivalent, within a minute or so, to that achieved 50 years ago.

Accomodating a whole extra stop at a busy interchange on a considerably busier railway than 50 years ago with modern safety systems and defensive driving whilst matching that journey time is a pretty impressive achievement.