Impact on other viruses from Covid-19

[The Ham]

I've been wondering, due to the lack of children at school (some estimates put it at circa 5% of normal values), and the lack of social interaction from everyone (i.e. no children's parties, clubs, sorts, etc.), what is the likely impact on other viruses?

For instance, by now we must be getting close to things like Chicken Pox having nearly no new cases (clearly there's going to be some but there can't be that many, and in a week or two there's going to be fewer still).

As such could we see fairly few cases until international travel starts to become more normal again, or could the number of countries with lockdowns mean that even that may not result in the number of cars rising back to previous levels?

If this is the case, could we see a widening of the vaccination program so as to result in the near removal of viruses like this from the population?

Likewise with the better understanding of how we should wash our hands, could we see Flu and Colds becoming much less common? Again especially if we are international travel on a semi lockdown, or at least fairly uncommon, for 18 months to two years.

Which given that places like China are stating that most of their new cases are from international travel and so encouraging 14 day self isolation for those coming into their country will put a lot of people off travel. Likewise how's the US ban on international travel going? Given that there's several States with fairly low levels of Covid-19 I wouldn't image that they'll be overly keen to allow people from known hotspots to come into the USA just yet, or even for a good few months.

 

[Domh245]

I'd certainly be in favour of widening the vaccination program where possible. It's particularly poor timing as we'd been seeing the re-emergence of things like measles in different countries as the result of anti-vax movements

I did see somebody suggest that it's the perfect time to eradicate nits though!

 

[DaveTM]

It is noticable on Facebook and Twitter that the loony anti-vaxers who would like to see a world without vaccines have gone rather quiet now that we have a world that is very aware it is missing one particular vaccine!

 

[MotCO]

The alternative view could be that we will become 'too clean'. A few minor bugs never hurt anyone, and help build up immunity. If we become too clean, will we reduce our immunity levels?

 

[The Ham]

The alternative view could be that we will become 'too clean'. A few minor bugs never hurt anyone, and help build up immunity. If we become too clean, will we reduce our immunity levels?

Whilst I understand your concerns, it is why we'd need to carry on immunising against virus which we could still come into contact with.

 

[MotCO]

Whilst I understand your concerns, it is why we'd need to carry on immunising against virus which we could still come into contact with.

Yes, I completely agree with you. I'm just concerned that 'natural' immunisation, as opposed to vaccinations, might be compromised by people being 'too clean'.

 

[Mogster]

STIs must have fallen surely... No more bunk ups in the pub toilets

I’d like to thing that all this distancing and hand washing were sending rates of other infections that fall under the “influenza like illness” banner through the floor. Then there’s Hepatitis A and E, gastro infections like Norovirus. All of these as well as being a public health concern cause an economic hit through lost productivity.

 

[Bald Rick]

It is noticable on Facebook and Twitter that the loony anti-vaxers who would like to see a world without vaccines have gone rather quiet now that we have a world that is very aware it is missing one particular vaccine!

The one who seems to fill my FB feed hasn’t gone quiet, regrettably. Far from it. She’s just banging on about the Government restricting liberty, trying to hide something, and being in the pocket of pharmaceutical corporations.

 

[MattA7]

I wonder if/when a covid-19 vaccine is available how it will be deployed I assume it would be healthcare/emergency workers first, then at risk groups and finally the general population and if given the public health threat covid-19 poses if the vaccination will be a legal requirement

 

[Bayum]

I think a lot of it depends on mode of transmission. You mentioned ‘colds’ and flu and handwashing - both are transmitted in a variety of ways. Washing hands is not going to be the be all and end all. I think general infections will be slightly down, but don’t forget people are still going shopping, travelling on public transport and being involved with each other in some way or other. Fomites are an important part of transmission for a variety of viruses - including covid-19 - as they provide says for organisms to transmit disease from one person to another without necessarily being in direct contact.
Yes, it’s quite possible that general infection rates will be going down, but many will have been already at this time of year. Is it ever going to reduce it entirely? No. Would basic hygiene help reduce the spread? Yes. Quite why people believe handwashing is suddenly important baffles me. I was my hands a little more often than some people, but even the the lack of it before this always concerned me - thus my more frequent handwashing.

 

[MattA7]

I wonder if even after the pandemic things like wearing gloves and face masks will still stick around after all in some countries/cultures that has been the normal even before corona became a thing

 

[The Ham]

I wonder if/when a covid-19 vaccine is available how it will be deployed I assume it would be healthcare/emergency workers first, then at risk groups and finally the general population and if given the public health threat covid-19 poses if the vaccination will be a legal requirement

It's going a little off topic, but chances are you'll be tested to see if you've got immunity and then if not given the vaccine.

I suspect that NHS workers would be fairly much at the front of the queue, with other key workers and those in the most high risk categories behind them.

After those will be those who are unable to work whilst social distancing and those with conditions which put them at moderate risk of death.

Chances are school children (probably primary aged children would be of lower priority than secondary, as there's been at least one death already of a secondary school aged child) and those who can work from home would be fairly near the back of the quite.

 

[Gooner18]

I think due to its very nature this virus could all but irradiate HIV especially once it gets hold in Africa

 

[Starmill]

The one who seems to fill my FB feed hasn’t gone quiet, regrettably. Far from it. She’s just banging on about the Government restricting liberty, trying to hide something, and being in the pocket of pharmaceutical corporations.

I've found the 'snooze' option on Facebook most helpful in such circumstances.

 

[Jozhua]

The alternative view could be that we will become 'too clean'. A few minor bugs never hurt anyone, and help build up immunity. If we become too clean, will we reduce our immunity levels?

Typically we don't vaccinate for the more minor bugs.

The one who seems to fill my FB feed hasn’t gone quiet, regrettably. Far from it. She’s just banging on about the Government restricting liberty, trying to hide something, and being in the pocket of pharmaceutical corporations.

Oh god, do these people seriously think they're unique and special? I get we all think we're the protagonist of reality, but anti-vaxxers seem to have an even more warped sense of self worth.

I think a lot of it depends on mode of transmission. You mentioned ‘colds’ and flu and handwashing - both are transmitted in a variety of ways. Washing hands is not going to be the be all and end all. I think general infections will be slightly down, but don’t forget people are still going shopping, travelling on public transport and being involved with each other in some way or other. Fomites are an important part of transmission for a variety of viruses - including covid-19 - as they provide says for organisms to transmit disease from one person to another without necessarily being in direct contact.
Yes, it’s quite possible that general infection rates will be going down, but many will have been already at this time of year. Is it ever going to reduce it entirely? No. Would basic hygiene help reduce the spread? Yes. Quite why people believe handwashing is suddenly important baffles me. I was my hands a little more often than some people, but even the the lack of it before this always concerned me - thus my more frequent handwashing.

Yeah but the amount we're doing to push this quite infectious virus' reproductive value down might very well push less infectious things like cold/flu below 1, meaning the cases drop like a brick. I think we may see a quieter cold/flu season, obviously the flipside being we have a much deadlier, more infectious virus to worry about now!

I might consider getting the flu jab too once this is over, I want to do my part to get rid of as many diseases as possible, these things don't deserve time in my cells

It's going a little off topic, but chances are you'll be tested to see if you've got immunity and then if not given the vaccine.

I suspect that NHS workers would be fairly much at the front of the queue, with other key workers and those in the most high risk categories behind them.

After those will be those who are unable to work whilst social distancing and those with conditions which put them at moderate risk of death.

Chances are school children (probably primary aged children would be of lower priority than secondary, as there's been at least one death already of a secondary school aged child) and those who can work from home would be fairly near the back of the quite.

I doubt any testing for immunity will be done as a requirement for the vaccine, that's just extra resources. The antibodies test also appears to be delayed due to a lack of accuracy.

The anti-gen test is apparently not so good either, although significantly better than nothing.

I think due to its very nature this virus could all but irradiate HIV especially once it gets hold in Africa

Doubt it, remember HIV stays in its host for life. Whilst there might be a temporary reduction in new cases for now, things will probably carry on as usual after.

That said, the way out of HIV has been very similar to COVID, testing, testing, testing! Contact tracing too in a way, if you've been in "contact" with someone who turns out to be positive, you go get a test too. Then some fantastic progress has been made on drugs, considering the absolutely immense challenge of fighting something that literally attacks your immune system.

 

[Gooner18]

Doubt it, remember HIV stays in its host for life. Whilst there might be a temporary reduction in new cases for now, things will probably carry on as usual after.

That said, the way out of HIV has been very similar to COVID, testing, testing, testing! Contact tracing too in a way, if you've been in "contact" with someone who turns out to be positive, you go get a test too. Then some fantastic progress has been made on drugs, considering the absolutely immense challenge of fighting something that literally attacks your immune system.

I know , I meant Covid 19 Killing someone with HIV as they have a reduced immune system , especially in Africa where they don’t have access to the same level of treatment.

 

[Bayum]

I know , I meant Covid 19 Killing someone with HIV as they have a reduced immune system , especially in Africa where they don’t have access to the same level of treatment.

Actually, the data is rather interesting. Many people living with HIV haven’t been infected for one reason or another OR have been given very mild cases. Clinical trials have been developed for the ‘Truvada’ combination in addition to the prior mentioned ARRV (anti retroviral) therapy.

 

[Bayum]

Interesting little tidbit here from the BBC.

Measles resurgence fear amid coronavirus

Millions of children risk missing out on measles vaccines, Unicef warns.

www.bbc.co.uk

(I’ll edit to include the text later when I’m not on my phone)

 

[JonathanH]

As seen today in the data from the ONS, there has been a large increase in the number of deaths in England & Wales in the week ending 3 April, the highest number of deaths seen on a weekly basis since 2005. It is suggested that factors other than Covid-19 are contributing to the increase in death rates.

Coronavirus: One in five deaths now linked to virus

Coronavirus prompts spike in mortality with data showing weekly deaths have hit a record high.

www.bbc.co.uk

Coronavirus: One in five deaths now linked to virus

By Nick Triggle
Health correspondent

More than one in five deaths in England and Wales is linked to coronavirus, figures show.

The Office for National Statistics data showed the virus was mentioned on 3,475 death certificates in the week ending 3 April.

It helped push the total number of deaths in that week to more than 16,000 - a record high and 6,000 more than expected at this time of year.

Normally the number of deaths falls as winter ends.

This is because there is less flu circulating.

'Hugely significant'
ONS official Nick Stripe said it was clear the coronavirus pandemic had reversed that trend, saying the rising number of deaths was "hugely significant" given it had happened at the start of April.

"This is not normal," he added.

But what is not clear is what else is contributing to this spike in deaths - the coronavirus cases contributed just over half of the "extra" 6,000 deaths.

It could be that cases of coronavirus are going undetected or other factors related to the lockdown and outbreak are having an impact, such as people not seeking treatment for other conditions or mental health deaths going up.

The 16,000 weekly deaths is the highest number seen since the ONS started publishing data in 2005 and tops the highest toll during the 2015 flu outbreak, the most severe of recent years.

The ONS data lags behind the daily death figures reported by the government.

This is because it relies on death certificates, which are only often registered some days after the death, whereas the government figures are compiled from confirmed cases of deaths of patients who have tested positive for coronavirus, which can be gathered more quickly.

The underlying ONS reports are at https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...cesinenglandandwales/uptoweekending3april2020 and https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...glandandwalesprovisional/weekending3april2020

 

[PartyOperator]

Interesting little tidbit here from the BBC.

Measles resurgence fear amid coronavirus

Millions of children risk missing out on measles vaccines, Unicef warns.

www.bbc.co.uk

(I’ll edit to include the text later when I’m not on my phone)

This would be particularly worrying since measles can effectively wipe out immunity to a wide range of other viruses - not only is it a dangerous infection in its own right but a major epidemic could reduce the effectiveness of many other vaccines and make a non-measles epidemic (maybe including COVID) worse. Measles vaccines should generally be given a very high priority for this reason.

 

[The Ham]

As seen today in the data from the ONS, there has been a large increase in the number of deaths in England & Wales in the week ending 3 April, the highest number of deaths seen on a weekly basis since 2005. It is suggested that factors other than Covid-19 are contributing to the increase in death rates.

Coronavirus: One in five deaths now linked to virus

Coronavirus prompts spike in mortality with data showing weekly deaths have hit a record high.

www.bbc.co.uk

The underlying ONS reports are at https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...cesinenglandandwales/uptoweekending3april2020 and https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...glandandwalesprovisional/weekending3april2020

The only caveat that I would add to that is that there's likely to be some deaths which haven't been counted in the .gov numbers as the deaths didn't occur within a hospital and/or weren't a confirmed case through testing.

I'm aware of nursing homes which have had to push hard to get a few patients tested, which have now been confirmed, but have been told that they will not have any further testing. They are then behaving like everyone and no one has the virus (i.e. separating the residents so as to limit the risk of cross contamination).

This may well result in unconfirmed cases, however the death could well be a direct result of the virus.

 

[Greybeard33]

As seen today in the data from the ONS, there has been a large increase in the number of deaths in England & Wales in the week ending 3 April, the highest number of deaths seen on a weekly basis since 2005. It is suggested that factors other than Covid-19 are contributing to the increase in death rates.

Coronavirus: One in five deaths now linked to virus

Coronavirus prompts spike in mortality with data showing weekly deaths have hit a record high.

www.bbc.co.uk

The underlying ONS reports are at https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...cesinenglandandwales/uptoweekending3april2020 and https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...glandandwalesprovisional/weekending3april2020

There have been suggestions that, for deaths of elderly people in care homes and in the community, GPs in the UK were reluctant to put Covid-19 on the death certificate in the absence of confirmatory testing. Hence the ONS statistics underreport the number of deaths in which the virus was a factor. Some other countries have reported that the number of Covid deaths in their care homes is similar to the number in hospital, versus less than 10% in the ONS statistics.

Then there will have been deaths caused indirectly by the virus, e.g. people who were reluctant to call an ambulance after a heart attack or stroke, for fear of infection in hospital, or those whose cancer treatment was interrupted or postponed. Additionally the lockdown will have caused some excess deaths, e.g. due to stress or suicide, as well as saving some that would have otherwise occurred due to air pollution and traffic accidents.

Covid-19 infections are much higher now than they were in the week ending 03 April, to which the ONS statistics relate. By the time the ONS publishes statistics for this week, it might become clearer what proportion of the excess deaths are really directly caused by the virus.

Regarding the topic of this thread, I have not seen any suggestion that other viruses are a significant factor in the excess deaths. Seasonal flu cases dropped away in mid-February this year.

 

[Bayum]

This would be particularly worrying since measles can effectively wipe out immunity to a wide range of other viruses - not only is it a dangerous infection in its own right but a major epidemic could reduce the effectiveness of many other vaccines and make a non-measles epidemic (maybe including COVID) worse. Measles vaccines should generally be given a very high priority for this reason.

One of the most infectious diseases out there with an R value of between 12 and 18.

 

[The Ham]

One of the most infectious diseases out there with an R value of between 12 and 18.

Although if suggest that currently it's much lower than this.