Integrated Rail Plan (IRP)

[Purple Orange]

Apparently the IRP will be published this week (I won’t hold my breath), so assuming it is imminent and we will see it this coming week, what do you think will be in it? Given the timings, now is probably a good time to have a bit of a speculative thread prediction!

1. What do you think will happen with HS2?
2. What do you think will become of Northern Powerhouse Rail (NPR)?
3. Where do you think electrification of the wider network fits?
4. What do you expect to come of Midlands Engine Rail (MER)?
5. What considerations do you think will be given to service provision?
6. What do you think will be the sequencing?

All of that considered, my ‘prediction’ from being sat in my arm chair is the following to be included:

• HS2 phase 2b to Crewe to Manchester
• Manchester Piccadilly HS2 station to be a 6-platform terminus station on the surface
• NPR line from Manchester Piccadilly HS2 station to the upgraded Trans Pennine mainline, with Huddersfield being a key stop on the route. The alignment through Guide Bridge to be utilised.
• Existing Trans Pennine mainline from Diggle to York will be a part of NPR.
• Full Trans Pennine Route upgrade
• HS2 eastern branch to East Midlands Parkway
• Midland Mainline electrification to Sheffield
• Promises of East Coast Mainline (ECML) upgrades.

What do others think?

 

[GRALISTAIR]

I also heard this week. So either Monday 14th or Friday 18th would be my guesses. Midnight Sunday would be perfect for me selfishly.

My speculation btw is MML sparks will not stop at Sheffield but be a rolling programme and go from Sheffield to Doncaster then Leeds then York and also go Nottingham to Sheffield.

 

[Halifaxlad]

I suspect we will see something akin to the NIC report, possible alterations to the proposed HS2 Eastern leg that is much more integrated with the existing network. Some new bits of new line rather than a completely new line between EMP and Leeds.

As for NPR if it goes via Huddersfield I suspect they will also proposed to reopen the Anchor Pit - Wyke line so that Bradford could have a direct fast service to Manchester via Huddersfield.

Probably a new line South of Huddersfield before running South West towards the M62 below Rochdale before joining the existing line, which would probably be four tracked all the way into Manchester.

Anyway does the IRP mean publishing the planned routes or not ?

 

[Ianno87]

.

Anyway does the IRP mean publishing the planned routes or not ?

As it's a strategy document, almost certainly just a schematic network - not detailed alignments.

 

[nick.c]

As it's a strategy document, almost certainly just a schematic network - not detailed alignments.

Let's hope that everybody will be pleasantly surprised. My guess though is that they won't be....

The basic problem is that the Capex Budget for heavy rail is around £90 billion (sorry can't remember the NIC timeline), but completing HS2 Phase 2, NPR, TRU and Midland Express is forecast to be in the range of £140 - £180 billion.

One idea (potential economy) I've read is the HS2 Leeds station extension complete with a new line to Clayton Junction for Sheffield bound NPR services is built which coincidently also provides a convenient and faster route into Leeds for Leeds to London ECML services.

 

[Purple Orange]

I suspect we will see something akin to the NIC report, possible alterations to the proposed HS2 Eastern leg that is much more integrated with the existing network. Some new bits of new line rather than a completely new line between EMP and Leeds.

As for NPR if it goes via Huddersfield I suspect they will also proposed to reopen the Anchor Pit - Wyke line so that Bradford could have a direct fast service to Manchester via Huddersfield.

Probably a new line South of Huddersfield before running South West towards the M62 below Rochdale before joining the existing line, which would probably be four tracked all the way into Manchester.

Anyway does the IRP mean publishing the planned routes or not ?

How would a line via Rochdale connect to Piccadilly?

As Ianno87 said, we probably won’t know much about 4-tracking and the details behind upgrades to existing lines. I suspect we will know either new build or upgraded lines.

I’m also doubting if there will be anything on NPR from Bradford if the line is via Huddersfield. The line is meant to be the fast line between Leeds & Manchester first and foremost. So we should expect it to be something like Edinburgh/Newcastle-Manchester and/or possibly Newcastle-Leeds-Manchester-Birmingham.

 

[Jorge Da Silva]

From what i have read over a few articles:

1. A new line to East Midlands Parkway
2. Upgraded routes to Nottingham/Derby and Sheffield and on to Leeds
3. New line to Leeds from Clayton
4. New station at Bradford (even if the line east west doesnt happen)
5. New station in Manchester next to existing Piccadilly but likely to be a terminus

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Let's hope that everybody will be pleasantly surprised. My guess though is that they won't be....

Sadly I agree. It has been hyped up so much I bet it ends up being a damp squid or wet blanket or whatever the phrase is.

 

[Killingworth]

Remind me, when did electric trains first run to Bristol and Swansea?

We spend many millions on plans and grand announcements. It would be good if we could finish what we've already started. Then we might have more belief in the next press release.

 

[Ianno87]

Remind me, when did electric trains first run to Bristol and Swansea?

They've both got their improved IET services (or at least would have done were it not for Covid).

Electrification is only an input, train services are the output. Don't confuse the two.

 

[daodao]

All of that considered, my ‘prediction’ from being sat in my arm chair is the following to be included:

• HS2 phase 2b to Crewe to Manchester
• Manchester Piccadilly HS2 station to be a 6-platform terminus station on the surface

I would ditch these, but sadly I suspect that you are right. I don't understand why Manchester is going to be given such preferential treatment; it doesn't deserve or need it. IMO, HS2 should stop at Crewe. London-Leeds trains should not be running via Manchester, given the huge existing rail capacity problems in Manchester.

Some sort of link from HS2 to the Midland main line near Derby/Trent Junction would be desirable, assuming that the eastern leg as hitherto proposed is shelved. Improving train services from London to Derby and Sheffield is desirable, given that the Midland main line is a poor relation as far as inter0city services are concerned.

 

[Ianno87]

I would ditch these, but sadly I suspect that you are right. I don't understand why Manchester is going to be given such preferential treatment; it doesn't deserve or need it. IMO, HS2 should stop at Crewe. London-Leeds trains should not be running via Manchester, given the huge existing rail capacity problems in Manchester.

Some sort of link from HS2 to the Midland main line near Derby/Trent Junction would be desirable, assuming that the eastern leg as hitherto proposed is shelved. Improving train services from London to Derby and Sheffield is desirable, given that the Midland main line is a poor relation as far as inter0city services are concerned.

Every time you copy and past this poste, I'm still waiting for an answer on how Stockport's know and long-standing capacity issues get solved without doing something that looks an awful lot like Phase 2b....

 

[daodao]

Every time you copy and past this poste, I'm still waiting for an answer on how Stockport's know and long-standing capacity issues get solved without doing something that looks an awful lot like Phase 2b....

I would:

• build additional [electrified] sidings east of Victoria to permit trains from Lancaster and north thereof, and the North Wales service, to terminate there instead of running to the Airport
• run most of the proposed HS2 services via the Styal line (except for 1 tph to call at Stockport), as capacity would have been released on the Styal line by running fewer trains to the Airport from the Castlefield line.

 

[Ianno87]

I would:

• build additional [electrified] sidings east of Victoria to permit trains from Lancaster and north thereof, and the North Wales service, to terminate there instead of running to the Airport

So that's 2tph released. Maybe 3tph.

• run most of the proposed HS2 services via the Styal line (except for 1 tph to call at Stockport), as capacity would have been released on the Styal line by running fewer trains to the Airport from the Castlefield line.

That would be 4tph (5tph HS2 Phase 2b, less 1tph via Stockport). You haven't released enough capacity (above) to enable this. Including nothing in Piccadilly shed.

 

[Purple Orange]

No point wasting time re-litigating the need for HS2 to go to Manchester. The case is well and truly established that it is very much needed and it releases capacity for stopping services. No chance you can run the Manchester-Birmingham HS2 trains through Wilmslow plus the Manchester-London, and the stoppers and South Wales.

The articles today give encouragement but it looks like NPR will just be upgrades from what I’ve read. That in itself may be fine if journey times are improved to where they need to be and it takes Leeds-airport services off castlefield. Good news that the eastern branch will at least be partially built.

 

[daodao]

5tph HS2 Phase 2b

While proposed, IMO that is excessive, as these trains would primarily serve Manchester and not intermediate stations in historic Cheshire/Staffordshire. unlike current inter-city services.

Using HS2, 2 tph from London, and 1 tph from Birmingham, should suffice for traffic just to Manchester itself, IMO.

The levelling up agenda is not needed for South Manchester and North Cheshire; it should be focussed elsewhere. Much of this area is already very prosperous, with house prices on a par with desirable commuter areas in the Home Counties.

 

[Ianno87]

While proposed, IMO that is excessive, as these trains would primarily serve Manchester and not intermediate stations in historic Cheshire/Staffordshire. unlike current inter-city services.

Uh....that is precisely the point.

Think of a typical Greater Manchester resident (say in urban Salford) who can connect using HS2 services to reach Birmingham or London (and associated opportunities) much quicker than today.

The levelling up agenda is not needed for South Manchester and North Cheshire; it should be focussed elsewhere. Much of this area is already very prosperous, with house prices on a par with desirable commuter areas in the Home Counties.

The residents of Levenshulme or Stoke, say, would have quite a different view.

 

[NoRoute]

Be interested to see what it includes for the south Midlands and providing some rail services along the M1 corridor, closing the rail gap between Nottingham, Derby & Leicester and Northampton & Milton Keynes. There were some reports over the last year or two of investigations into re-opening a route along that corridor, but it has gone very quiet, so be interested to see if it features in the plan.

 

[The Planner]

Be interested to see what it includes for the south Midlands and providing some rail services along the M1 corridor, closing the rail gap between Nottingham, Derby & Leicester and Northampton & Milton Keynes. There were some reports over the last year or two of investigations into re-opening a route along that corridor, but it has gone very quiet, so be interested to see if it features in the plan.

I suspect you have more chance of 6 numbers on the lottery.

 

[daodao]

The residents of Levenshulme or Stoke, say, would have quite a different view.

Since when is Stoke in South Manchester and North Cheshire?

In practical terms. South Manchester comprises areas of Greater Manchester south of the River Mersey (thus not including Levenshulme) that were formerly in Cheshire, such as Altrincham and Bramhall. Apart from the Wythenshawe estate, most of this area is fairly prosperous.

 

[Ianno87]

Since when is Stoke in South Manchester and North Cheshire?

In practical terms. South Manchester comprises areas of Greater Manchester south of the River Mersey (thus not including Levenshulme) that were formerly in Cheshire, such as Altrincham and Bramhall. Apart from the Wythenshawe estate, most of this area is fairly prosperous.

The railway that would benefit from release of capacity from Phase 2b serves more than the area you are describing. You're just picking an area that fits your argument.

"If you ignore all the deprived bits, then it's all fairly prosperous"

 

[Purple Orange]

Moving the conversation on to more relevant aspects, could Leeds-London services realistically be faster than the east coast mainline if travelling on the 23 mile stretch south of Leeds and the 42 mile stretch from East Midlands Parkway to the HS2 phase 1 line?

 

[MidlandMainlie]

Sunday times reporting on "three new" High Speed lines but the full Eastern leg of HS2 is to be scrapped.

The new high-speed routes include:

•A 42-mile line from Birmingham to East Midlands Parkway, just south of Nottingham. This is expected to cut journey times between the two cities from 72 minutes to 27 minutes.

•A second high-speed route will run south from Leeds for about 23 miles, helping to cut the journey time to Sheffield from 42 to 24 minutes.

•A third stretch will run for 33 miles from Crewe to Manchester, to complete the western leg of HS2. It is unclear whether a new high-speed line will also be built from Manchester to Leeds, or whether this section will simply be upgraded.

Really just confirms what we all expected re parts the Eastern leg of HS2 not being built in full but just in parts.

 

[HST43257]

I just hope that they leave whatever of the Eastern Leg that they do build in a state where it can be developed to be the full thing as once planned.

 

[David Bullock]

Moving the conversation on to more relevant aspects, could Leeds-London services realistically be faster than the east coast mainline if travelling on the 23 mile stretch south of Leeds and the 42 mile stretch from East Midlands Parkway to the HS2 phase 1 line?

The National Infrastructure Commission estimated 93 minutes on the “prioritising regional links +50%” outcome. Which is the one that builds a new line to East Mids Parkway and some high speed line out of leeds

https://nic.org.uk/app/uploads/RNA-Final-Report-15122020.pdf

This is the paper I’m on about ^

 

[ABB125]

According to that Sunday Times article, the Eastern leg bit to East Midlands Parkway will be 42 miles long. It also runs alongside the M42/A42 for most of its length. I know it doesn't actually mean anything significant, but I think that's quite interesting!

 

[snowball]

According to that Sunday Times article, the Eastern leg bit to East Midlands Parkway will be 42 miles long. It also runs alongside the M42/A42 for most of its length. I know it doesn't actually mean anything significant, but I think that's quite interesting!

Presumably it's exactly the currently proposed route of the eastern arm (which does run alongside the M42 and A42 for much of the way), curtailed and minimally modified where it crosses the MML.

Similarly the run out of Leeds is presumably the currently proposed route of the eastern arm, curtailed and minimally modified where it crosses the Sheffield to Church Fenton line.

 

[ABB125]

Presumably it's exactly the currently proposed route of the eastern arm (which does run alongside the M42 and A42 for much of the way), curtailed and minimally modified where it crosses the MML.

Similarly the run out of Leeds is presumably the currently proposed route of the eastern arm, curtailed and minimally modified where it crosses the Sheffield to Church Fenton line.

I'd have thought so

 

[InTheEastMids]

I'd have thought so

42 miles seems like a lot for what is roughly the M42/m6 toll junction to Trent Junctions? From Google Earth it's more like 32 miles.

 

[nick.c]

OK - so the "The new high-speed routes include:

•A 42-mile line from Birmingham to East Midlands Parkway
•A second high-speed route will run south from Leeds for about 23 miles
•A third stretch will run for 33 miles from Crewe to Manchester".

Sorry to be pedantic but - if my map reading is correct ...
a) HS2 Leeds Junction (east of Birmingham) to East Midlands Parkway is only 30 miles
b) Sounds about right
c) Crewe to Manchester is almost 37 miles

Could the mileages quoted for a) and c) be reversed? Or are the routes going to be slightly different?