Is there a case for extending some St Pancras to Nottingham services to Mansfield?

[pitdiver]

As a resident of Warsop Vale (5 mins from Shirebrook Stn) any improvement in the service on the Robin Hood line would be welcome. That is apart from a Sunday service which I would expect it to be carrying fresh air.

 

[paddy1]

Those figures for Newark Northgate cant possibly be right, that's more than the pax from Sheffield to London. Just checked and you seem to have doubled the pax numbers for all the other stations on your list. Am i missing something here?

The figures were extracted from 'railwaydata.co.uk, which (I believe was created by a member on this forum?). Whichever station you select, they only give the one way passengers flows, so you have to double them to get the two way flow for each station pair.

It says both ways, so London - X is added to X - London.
Though how the numbers are generated I don't know.

The passenger numbers for each station pair have been extracted from 'railwaydata.co.uk' (I believe it is a website created by a member of this forum). You just input the origin station and it generates a list of passenger numbers by station pair but only giving the one way flow, so you have to double them to get the two way flow for any given station pair. It also show a year by year comparison back to 2018/19 so you can plot increases or decreases in numbers over the years.

Those figures for Newark Northgate cant possibly be right, that's more than the pax from Sheffield to London. Just checked and you seem to have doubled the pax numbers for all the other stations on your list. Am i missing something here?

Sheffield to London (St Pancras) is 766.523 ( 2 x 383,253) so higher than Newark Northgate (2 x 269,296 = 538,592). There are lots of 'surprises' or 'unexpected' results when you compare various station pairs. Doncaster- London Kings Cross is 829,902, higher than Sheffield, but Sheffield is the regional centre of South Yorkshire.

There are many other examples like this - Stafford -Euston (454,662) compared to Stoke-on-Trent - Euston (349,822) and Wolverhampton - Euston (392,548), but Stafford has only a fraction of the population of the other two. So not population related but more about rail heading, catchment area, level of affluence/propensity to travel factors.

Having said that, there may well also be a "propensity to travel" effect. Historically Mansfield was a local employment centre rather than an origin for commuters, not least because it had no passenger service for several decades. So people who needed to travel to London would most likely choose to live somewhere with a better train service. The Robin Hood line has partly compensated for the loss of local employment by connecting residents to jobs in Nottingham, but the historic effect is likely to persist.

'Propensity to travel' of the resident population and hinterland is definitely a significant factor that is likely to persist with respect to former industrial/mining type towns and cities when trying to introduce new services, and are they often not places where people from outside want to travel to in large numbers (unlike York, Bath, Edinburgh etc). Grand Central have had to work very hard to build up demand on their London services from places like Bradford, Sunderland etc where the London flow is still very low (102,114 and 102,860 respectively) in relation to their populations.

 

[Palmerston]

Based on existing London flows to/from Mansfield (and Worksop), I would say a definite NO for a direct London service:-

LONDON FLOWS (total both ways) 2023/24

Mansfield 14.620
Mansfield Woodhouse 3,404
Worksop 7,544

Compare these with 2023/24 London flows via nearest mainline railhead alternatives for both towns

Nottingham 914,466
Newark Northgate 538,592
Chesterfield 219.478
Retford 222,644

It would appear (to me) that a disproportionate number of London passengers in both towns are already using railheads that offer a frequent and direct service, and that no rail operator would want to introduce a direct London service based on those figures.

Even more remarkable when you consider the populations of Mansfield compared to Newark (100k v 30k) and Worksop compared to Retford (60k compared to 20k). The same would apply comparing Nottingham v Newark figures. As many have already made the point numerous times on this site, it is not all about population.

Also, just how much would those Mansfield (and Worksop) flows have to increase by, and to what frequency, to justify direct services to London?

Based on the journeys and the population sizes, it feels to me direct services, if feasible, could attract a decent amount of passengers.

 

[LowLevel]

You can't turn anything longer than a 3 coach passenger train back at Mansfield Woodhouse and I'm not sure you can fit 5 at Worksop either so you'd be talking major signalling and station alterations.

 

[cle]

The figures were extracted from 'railwaydata.co.uk, which (I believe was created by a member on this forum?). Whichever station you select, they only give the one way passengers flows, so you have to double them to get the two way flow for each station pair.


The passenger numbers for each station pair have been extracted from 'railwaydata.co.uk' (I believe it is a website created by a member of this forum). You just input the origin station and it generates a list of passenger numbers by station pair but only giving the one way flow, so you have to double them to get the two way flow for any given station pair. It also show a year by year comparison back to 2018/19 so you can plot increases or decreases in numbers over the years.


Sheffield to London (St Pancras) is 766.523 ( 2 x 383,253) so higher than Newark Northgate (2 x 269,296 = 538,592). There are lots of 'surprises' or 'unexpected' results when you compare various station pairs. Doncaster- London Kings Cross is 829,902, higher than Sheffield, but Sheffield is the regional centre of South Yorkshire.

There are many other examples like this - Stafford -Euston (454,662) compared to Stoke-on-Trent - Euston (349,822) and Wolverhampton - Euston (392,548), but Stafford has only a fraction of the population of the other two. So not population related but more about rail heading, catchment area, level of affluence/propensity to travel factors.


'Propensity to travel' of the resident population and hinterland is definitely a significant factor that is likely to persist with respect to former industrial/mining type towns and cities when trying to introduce new services, and are they often not places where people from outside want to travel to in large numbers (unlike York, Bath, Edinburgh etc). Grand Central have had to work very hard to build up demand on their London services from places like Bradford, Sunderland etc where the London flow is still very low (102,114 and 102,860 respectively) in relation to their populations.

I agree with this, but Bradford and Sunderland do also have overshadowing neighbours, with better/faster service. Probably cheaper too.

Stafford and Doncaster I'm sure are just good old fashioned railheadding - fast services to London and a broad hinterland. Doncaster is a big junction and probably has decent feed, whereas I think Stafford sees more rural drop-offs, and even some double-backing from Wolvo.

 

[duffield]

You can't turn anything longer than a 3 coach passenger train back at Mansfield Woodhouse and I'm not sure you can fit 5 at Worksop either so you'd be talking major signalling and station alterations.

If you only wanted to run as far as Mansfield, it doesn't look like the turnback platform at Mansfield Woodhouse would be difficult to extend at the north end by 50-60m approx.

I don't see that would involve signalling alterations (as the signal is at the south end of the platform), just taking a bit of scrub land to extend the turnback north, and re-routing the access path around the far end of the new buffer stop. But that's just from the satellite view, I may be missing something.

 

[LowLevel]

If you only wanted to run as far as Mansfield, it doesn't look like the turnback platform at Mansfield Woodhouse would be difficult to extend at the north end by 50-60m approx.

I don't see that would involve signalling alterations (as the signal is at the south end of the platform), just taking a bit of scrub land to extend the turnback north, and re-routing the access path around the far end of the new buffer stop. But that's just from the satellite view, I may be missing something.

In 2025 railway civils terms that would probably cost silly money to achieve for an odd marginal service I think. Not sure what the geometry of the scrub land is like - Oxclose Lane to the north of the station has a very steep gradient to dive under the railway.

You could terminate at Worksop by shunting out over the level crossing and back into platform 1 I suppose but all in all I don't think it's worth it.

Much as I don't wish to lose any work the Robin Hood Line would in my opinion be best suited as a more frequent electric or battery service between Mansfield Woodhouse and Nottingham and I'd shut the north end entirely and replace it with a bus - it gets a little busy at times but the likes of Shirebrook are well down on pre COVID with less worker traffic to Sports Direct these days - the north end stations have some commuter traffic but except on Saturdays have little ridership during the day (except Worksop which isn't too bad) bar undesirables bouncing around doing whatever it is they do in the towns.

 

[duffield]

In 2025 railway civils terms that would probably cost silly money to achieve for an odd marginal service I think. Not sure what the geometry of the scrub land is like - Oxclose Lane to the north of the station has a very steep gradient to dive under the railway.

You could terminate at Worksop by shunting out over the level crossing and back into platform 1 I suppose but all in all I don't think it's worth it.

Much as I don't wish to lose any work the Robin Hood Line would in my opinion be best suited as a more frequent electric or battery service between Mansfield Woodhouse and Nottingham and I'd shut the north end entirely and replace it with a bus - it gets a little busy at times but the likes of Shirebrook are well down on pre COVID with less worker traffic to Sports Direct these days - the north end stations have some commuter traffic but except on Saturdays have little ridership during the day (except Worksop which isn't too bad) bar undesirables bouncing around doing whatever it is they do in the towns.

I agree that a London service to Mansfield (or Worksop) isn't worth it, even if extending the turnback at Woodhouse was actually "cheap".

I don't agree with closing the north end of the line. Shirebrook for example has a decent population,and the line's potential is wasted by the low speed, low frequency and lack of connections at Worksop. Rather than close it, I'd see it upgraded to allow decent speeds (combined with BEMUs for acceleration), run a 2tph service over the full line with maybe 1tph being limited stop, put in a bay platform at Worksop, and consider future through services to Sheffield - with at least decent connections in the meantime. Journeys like Mansfield to Sheffield are pretty useless by rail at the moment via Worksop or Nottingham even though the two places are geographically very close, there may be considerable untapped potential there.

Anyhow, I don't expect any of this to happen!

 

[Brubulus]

I agree that a London service to Mansfield (or Worksop) isn't worth it, even if extending the turnback at Woodhouse was actually "cheap".

I don't agree with closing the north end of the line. Shirebrook for example has a decent population,and the line's potential is wasted by the low speed, low frequency and lack of connections at Worksop. Rather than close it, I'd see it upgraded to allow decent speeds (combined with BEMUs for acceleration), run a 2tph service over the full line with maybe 1tph being limited stop, put in a bay platform at Worksop, and consider future through services to Sheffield - with at least decent connections in the meantime. Journeys like Mansfield to Sheffield are pretty useless by rail at the moment via Worksop or Nottingham even though the two places are geographically very close, there may be considerable untapped potential there.

Anyhow, I don't expect any of this to happen!

Pre COVID there was a Sheffield to Gainsborough Central and Nottingham to Mansfield Woodhouse service, those could be combined to become a Nottingham-Sheffield via Mansfield service.

 

[Zomboid]

Really the question is where do people from Mansfield actually want to go (by all modes), and can rail help with that?

There's a triangle at Worksop so if settlements towards Sheffield are where people actually want to go then there's no need to slow that hypothetical service with a call and reversal at Worksop. If it's London then could the service be extended beyond Worksop to Retford to connect with the ECML? With a sensible connection that's probably going to be reasonably competitive with going via Nottingham.

if units would just be luxuriating at Nottingham station waiting to go back to London in the time to would take to get to and from Mansfield then a through service might offer some benefits, but I suspect decent frequency local services and reliable connections would work just as well.

 

[Killingworth]

Is this people buying tickets from Barnsley? Those who choose to drive to a station with direct London trains might chose Doncaster for the quicker journey.

And cheaper parking.