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Israel attacks Iran - What will be the wider implications?

Lewisham2221

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The BBC are now reporting that a ceasefire has been agreed. Announced by Trump, yet to be confirmed by Israel or Iran.

Trump says Iran and Israel have agreed to ceasefire​

US President Donald Trump has announced a "complete and total" ceasefire between Israel and Iran on social media.

Trump says the ceasefire will begin "in approximately six hours from now" after each country has "wound down" their military operations.

Trump's announcement contains a periodic unravelling of hostilities but says that "upon the 24th hour" the war will officially end.

Israel and Iran are yet to confirm a ceasefire has been reached.

Stay with us as we bring you more.

BBC News - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn7ze4vmk2pt
Trump says Israel and Iran have agreed to 'complete and total' ceasefire' - live updates - BBC News
 
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Belperpete

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That’s a bit more gentle than my leaving them on a desert island to fend for themselves idea.
Didn't we try that with Napoleon?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

I certainly support neither country's Government*. That is possible, you don't have to take a side! It's nothing like Russia vs Ukraine where it is a clear case of one aggressor invading another country that has not been aggressive.

* I specifically say Government as I have no issue with the people of Iran nor Israel. Indeed it's notable that most progressive Iranians do seem to want rid of the present regime and I don't blame them, though clearly they would suffer from the pain in achieving that.
I am not sure how many of the people of Iran support the policies of the current regime, or if it is even possible to know. However, the people of Israel voted Netanyahu into power with the clearly stated mandate to do what he is doing. In particular, the policy that the Palestinians never have a state of their own is widely held in Israel. The recent Louis Theroux documentary on the attitude of the Israelis towards the Palestinians was quite shocking. I do have an issue with people who hold those kind of views.
 
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GusB

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You are wrong. Certainly Israel has a right of pre-emption. Your question should be if the use of that right was appropriate. IRC ( and it is a while since I studied international law) this right turns on "imminence" of attack. Hence why Israel are putting a time line on Iran acquiring/creating a viable nuclear weapon.
Maybe you're wrong here. While a country has a right to enact a pre-emptive strike if it believes that it is in imminent danger of being attacked by another, I'm not entirely sure that there was any imminent danger; the American intelligence and that of the International Atomic Energy Agency both agreed that there was no imminent threat. I suppose it all depends on the definition of "imminent", really; Netanyahu has been crying imminence for decades now, so please forgive me for not believing him.

We went through the same nonsense 20 years ago when the Iraqi threat was "imminent" and it turned out to be a lie.

If Iran was really capable of developing a nuclear weapon and wanted to, why doesn't it have the bomb? It had the equipment and the know-how.

This is naïve in the extreme. Sometimes, sadly, you have to use force. The first gulf war was such a case. A sovereign nation was invaded and the aggressor refused to leave, even after lots of talking at the UN. They had to be chucked out. We could do that because Iraqi did not have forces able to resist and did not have a nuclear bomb.
The first gulf war was a completely different situation. It was a clear case of one sovereign state invading another and there was a UN resolution condemning Iraq's actions. I'm not aware of any UN resolution authorising the latest military strikes against Iran.
 

DarloRich

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I suppose it all depends on the definition of "imminent",
which is what I said!
I'm not aware of any UN resolution authorising the latest military strikes against Iran.
The UN is finished as a useful body without changes. Surely you can see that? The chances of any resolution passing at present are about zero due to the security council veto.

I am not happy about that but that is where we are.

If Iran was really capable of developing a nuclear weapon and wanted to, why doesn't it have the bomb? It had the equipment and the know-how.
because it is REALLY complicated! Life isn't a Tom Clancy novel.

Didn't we try that with Napoleon?
twice! second time finished him off though ;)

No, that's not correct.
I should have said expected rather than asked.
The U.S.A. enjoyed not being involved in Europe's wars until they were finally dragged into WWII. By this time they had already built up there military forces, but during and after WWII they continued to develop and fund their military. Whereas most of the other countries around the world (apart from the USSR) downsized their military over the years after WWII And then continued with this trend after the fall of the USSR
This is not quite correct. The USA had not built up thier military forces prior to entering the second world war. They quickly ramped up both manpower and production after entering the war. By comparison our total armed forces number at the start of the war was c.897,000.

The American national WWII Museum has the most easily accessible chart: https://www.nationalww2museum.org/s...tarters/research-starters-us-military-numbers

US Military Personnel (1939-1945)

Year Army Navy Marines Coast Guard Total
1939 189,839 125,202 19,432 334,473
1940 269,023 160,997 28,345 458,365
1941 1,462,315 284,427 54,359 1,801,101
1942 3,075,608 640,570 142,613 56,716* 3,915,507
1943 6,994,472 1,741,750 308,523 151,167 9,195,912
1944 7,994,750 2,981,365 475,604 171,749 11,623,468
1945 8,267,958 3,380,817 474,680 85,783 12,209,238
they clearly kept up thier military spending after the war and the size of that military underpinned peace in the west. The whole point of NATO was founded on that strength and size.

Not easy, but North Korea, India and Pakistan have managed it.
indeed - but it took them ages to do so with several false starts and failures.
Ooh ‘eck
There were clearly signals this missile attack was coming as the USA ( and UK) issued warnings ahead of time. The damage was limited and seems designed for domestic consumption in Iran ( same as the response to the first Israeli attack). It is part of the understood diplomatic response.

if Iran wanted to properly respond it would attack shipping and try to seal of the straights of Hormoz - they would also attack US bases in the area with more than a couple of scattergun missile shots!
 

Annetts key

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There were clearly signals this missile attack was coming as the USA ( and UK) issued warnings ahead of time. The damage was limited and seems designed for domestic consumption in Iran ( same as the response to the first Israeli attack). It is part of the understood diplomatic response.

if Iran wanted to properly respond it would attack shipping and try to seal of the straights of Hormoz - they would also attack US bases in the area with more than a couple of scattergun missile shots!
As I understand it, Iran informed it's neighbours ahead of the missile attack.

Which brings it back round to Iran not wanting a direct war with Israel...

Even before this nonsense from Netanyahu about Iran being close to having a nuclear weapon, Iran almost certainly knew that in an all out war with Israel, it would not go well for them. Old F-14 Tomcats, MiG-29, F-4 Phantoms and F-5 Tigers were never going to be of much use against Israel’s air force. And that's assuming that Iran had significant numbers of these that were actually airworthy. It looks like the air defence systems in Iran were also old and ineffective, with Iran not having recovered from the last time that Israel attacked them.

Don't get me wrong, the world would be a much better place without the current Iranian regime in power (assuming the Iranians could find a much better leader and put together a better system of government) but as I see it, the biggest cause of trouble in the Middle East is Netanyahu, his party and the current government in Israel. This region will never become peaceful while Israel is allowed to be the troublemaker...
 

brad465

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So the ceasefire didn't really last, and Trump is so furious with Israel over it he actually used the f-word in a live interview:


Watch: Trump expresses displeasure with Israel and Iran over ceasefire breach​

Earlier, US President Donald Trump spoke to reporters and gave an update on the ceasefire between Israel and Iran.

Using at times forceful wording, he said he was not happy with either Israel or Iran over what he said were breaches of the agreement he helped to broker.

Warning: The video below contains strong language.

Video attached to link

This post contains strong language.
More now from US President Donald Trump, who says he's "not happy" with Israel.

"There was one rocket that I guess was fired overboard after the time limit and now Israel is going out. These guys [have] got to calm down," he says, speaking to reporters before heading to the Nato summit in The Hague.

He adds that he didn't like "plenty of things" he saw yesterday.

"I didn't like the fact that Israel unloaded right after we made the deal," he says referring to the ceasefire he announced earlier. "They didn't have to unload."

The president continues: "We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don't know what the f*** they're doing."
 

DarloRich

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I cant really blame Trump - he thought he had taken a big step towards his coveted Nobel peace prize only to have it snatched away ;)

( plus he has used up political capital with his redneck SS by joining a foreign war when he promised not to)
 

brad465

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Two world leaders both using power to stay out of jail, but their means of doing so are now at odds with each other. Trump can't afford to be dragged into a long war, or else his base could turn on him and make the ability to remove him more likely, while Netanyahu on the other hand has to have perpetual war to stay in power, but needs the US to keep his war going on multiple fronts.
 

SHD

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Well yes, but will aggressive militarism solve anything?

All sorts of regimes are oppressive but we don't go throwing bombs at all of them. Apartheid was oppressive but we didn't bomb South Africa. Mugabe was oppressive but we didn't bomb Zimbabwe. Pinochet was oppressive but we didn't bomb Chile; indeed he was BFF of one of our former leaders.

Maybe having talks with them to understand what they want. I suspect a lot of the anti-Western feeling in that part of the world is down to the constant meddling in the region by the federal US.

I'm sorry but I despise this kind of militarism. I despise the Vietnam War, where, in my view, ridiculous paranoia resulted in the US Government sending many of its young men to their deaths in a far-away land, all dying for absolutely nothing. And, within my own memory, I despised both the 1991 and the 2003 Gulf Wars and the 2001 Afghan war with unbridled passion.

In the case of apartheid South Africa, western countries (Israel included) looked at their nuclear weapons program with benevolent negligence when they did not provide covert assistance.
 

DustyBin

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Can’t really criticise him too much for that, it’s probably the first time I’ve agreed with what he said.

I agree; regardless of what one thinks of Trump he's trying to sort this mess out. It's now being widely reported that following his little tirade and some banging together of heads, the ceasefire is in place and is holding. Netanyahu may have just learned that Trump isn't his poodle after all....
 

adc82140

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Can’t really criticise him too much for that, it’s probably the first time I’ve agreed with what he said.
I'm glad you said that. I can't stand the man normally, but I can't stop watching the video clip. He is 100% right.
 

DustyBin

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So is this ceasefire happening or not?

Everywhere I look gives conflicting information...

Apparently it is. It looks as though both sides landed blows after the (hopefully final) bell, but have now returned to their corners after a talking to from Trump.
 

AlterEgo

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Can’t really criticise him too much for that, it’s probably the first time I’ve agreed with what he said.
He is actually dead right either by accident or design - the animosity runs so deep and so long with Israel and Iran that neither does actually know what the (hell) they are doing. Israel may be a very competent military opponent but they are losing credibility by the day.
 

brad465

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I wouldn't be surprised if even with the expletive he used he was holding back; if that were me I'd relish the opportunity to drop a tonne of "bombs" that way.
 

Cowley

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I guess this was the first time an F bomb has been used in an official presidential statement then was it?

I can’t remember it happening before?
 

brad465

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I guess this was the first time an F bomb has been used in an official presidential statement then was it?

I can’t remember it happening before?
Bill Clinton used it before, although not sure it was an official statement. Funnily enough, despite it being 29 years ago, he used the f-word in reference to, believe it or not, Benjamin Netanyahu. It's almost as if he has been an arrogant nutjob his entire career:


After his first meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in 1996, Bill Clinton vented his fury before his staff about his visitor’s apparent presumptions about the balance of power in the bilateral relationship. “Who the f**k does he think he is?,” Clinton reportedly bellowed. “Who’s the f**king superpower here?” Twenty-seven years later, another American president should be asking himself the same question about the very same Bibi Netanyahu and the country he leads.
 

Trackman

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Biden did it too, 'dont f*** with Joe Biden' , wasn't an 'official statement' though.
edit: it's on you-tube
 

brad465

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Biden did it too, 'dont f*** with Joe Biden' , wasn't an 'official statement' though.
edit: it's on you-tube
While Vice-President, Biden infamously said into Obama's ear: "This is a big f*****g deal!" This was in reference to the recently passed "Obama-care" bill.
 

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