January fares - what's happening?

[Paul Kelly]

Does anyone know if fares are actually going to change on the 2nd January as usual and if so, when the new fares should be put on sale? Traditionally it was 4 weeks in advance (so 5th December) but more recently RDG have usually announced a specific date fairly early in November. But I'm wondering if there's perhaps some government dithering going on which means the fares change is not going to happen again this year, similarly to last year? Does anybody have any idea?

 

[Haywain]

Does anyone know if fares are actually going to change on the 2nd January as usual and if so, when the new fares should be put on sale? Traditionally it was 4 weeks in advance (so 5th December) but more recently RDG have usually announced a specific date fairly early in November. But I'm wondering if there's perhaps some government dithering going on which means the fares change is not going to happen again this year, similarly to last year? Does anybody have any idea?

My understanding is that TOCs have had no firm instruction from DfT as yet, so there could be a delay.

 

[Mcr Warrior]

What's the scheduled rate of inflation increase, if price uplifts do go ahead?

 

[JonathanH]

What's the scheduled rate of inflation increase, if price uplifts do go ahead?

July RPI was 3.8%, to which 1% may be added.

 

[Gathursty]

Does the percentage increase apply to individual fares or baskets of fares in that some may go down to compensate some that go up?

In which case which tickets could go down in price in January?

 

[Mcr Warrior]

In which case which tickets could go down in price in January?

Somehow I doubt that, except, perhaps, for the most infrequently sold / obscure of flows.

 

[SickyNicky]

I have asked the question and will let you know when I get an answer.

 

[Starmill]

Somehow I doubt that, except, perhaps, for the most infrequently sold / obscure of flows.

Some ticket prices go down all the time, for political or practical purposes.

For example Milton Keynes Central to London prices very often go up and then go down again as thw two main dedicated fares compete to be the cheapest. York to Doncaster has gone down (or had a cheaper type of ticket reinstated) at least three times after becoming more expensive than York to Sheffield. Stockport to Manchester Off Peak Day Return has gone down by 10p at the September fares round. The Avanti West Coast only ticket therefore went down by 10p in reaction to this a few weeks later (they were exactly the same price for several weeks).

The market-wide price level of course pretty much never goes down.

So far the pandemic effects and GBR transition hasn't made much impact on these practices. I imagine they will do though in the coming years.

 

[Haywain]

Does the percentage increase apply to individual fares or baskets of fares in that some may go down to compensate some that go up?

I believe it applies to the 'basket' of fares, but it's more a case that some may go up by more than the percentage and some may go up by less. Although how much this is relevant now that the government is running the show remains to be seen - the rules were put n place to control the activities of private companies.

For example Milton Keynes Central to London prices very often go up and then go down again as thw two main dedicated fares compete to be the cheapest. York to Doncaster has gone down (or had a cheaper type of ticket reinstated) at least three times after becoming more expensive than York to Doncaster. Stockport to Manchester Off Peak Day Return has gone down by 10p at the September fares round. The Avanti West Coast only ticket therefore went down by 10p in reaction to this a few weeks later (they were exactly the same price for several weeks).

I suspect most of the cases you give are not regulated fares, so the controls don't apply.

 

[JonathanH]

I believe it applies to the 'basket' of fares, but it's more a case that some may go up by more than the percentage and some may go up by less. Although how much this is relevant now that the government is running the show remains to be seen - the rules were put n place to control the activities of private companies.

Wasn't the 'basket' approach stopped in recent years as it was getting challenging to justify from a political point of view? (That is, people were complaining to their MP about it.)

Clearly when it did apply, it was well used by TOCs to put up the fares of routes where demand was growing and increase fares on other routes at a lower rate.

 

[Starmill]

I suspect most of the cases you give are not regulated fares, so the controls don't apply.

Indeed, that's probably the case. Although there has also been an approach in some areas where unregulated fares have been maintained in a similar sort of way to the regulated ones anyway.

 

[Paul Kelly]

It seems Scottish fares are increasing from 24 January. Does anybody know when they went on sale at the new price? If it was the usual 4 weeks before, would be 27 December?

Also there have been several announcements about English fares increasing on 1st March - should these go on sale 4 weeks previously on 1st February? Anybody know?

 

[alistairlees]

It seems Scottish fares are increasing from 24 January. Does anybody know when they went on sale at the new price? If it was the usual 4 weeks before, would be 27 December?

Also there have been several announcements about English fares increasing on 1st March - should these go on sale 4 weeks previously on 1st February? Anybody know?

Big bang change on 1st March for English fares. Fares sold up to and including 28th February, for any future date, are at the old price.

 

[CyrusWuff]

Big bang change on 1st March for English fares. Fares sold up to and including 28th February, for any future date, are at the old price.

Just to expand on that a bit, that's the same situation as applied last year and it's a complete pain for ticket sellers as they can't tell you the new fares until the day they actually change. But it's a good spin opportunity for D(a)fT, so...

Additionally, the May and September fares rounds are expected to take place on the normal dates (i.e. Sunday 15th May and Sunday 4th September this year.)

 

[Paul Kelly]

Additionally, the May and September fares rounds are expected to take place on the normal dates (i.e. Sunday 15th May and Sunday 4th September this year.)

Thanks; I hadn't even asked about that but that's useful info! This information seems unbelievably hard to come by.

 

[thedbdiboy]

Thanks; I hadn't even asked about that but that's useful info! This information seems unbelievably hard to come by.

That's because with the DfT in charge, announcing fares becomes all about slotting it into the Whitehall spin machine rather than letting an industry and the many people and suppliers who manage fares get on with the actual pricing and distribution process in an organised and structured way

 

[MikeWh]

Does anyone know whether TfL have received the info for PAYG fares in time for delivery by March 1st? I've seen a suggestion that these fares may have to change at a later date.

 

[splashoutradio]

Not sure if it has been mentioned already, but Merseyrail's new fares and Scotland's forthcoming fare increases have been published on journey planners, and can also be viewed on the RailwayData fares search, by searching for a date of 24/01/2022 or later.

 

[alistairlees]

I know that the fares increase for England comes into effect on 1st March. Does anyone know if this is all English TOCs, or just DfT-managed ones? And if it applies to fares that they set that are either only partly in England, or wholly outside England?

The fares increase for Scotland comes into effect on 24 January (see https://www.transport.gov.scot/news/rail-fares-increase-level-confirmed/) - does this apply to all ScotRail fares including cross-border ones? And, as per the question above, does it apply to the fares of other TOCs wholly in Scotland?

The Welsh Government is apparently still 'considering' fares increases. Anyone know what's happening here, and when? There's quite a lot of cross-border stuff.

So far as I know, TfL have yet to increase fares, or announce when they will do so, though in December a 1st March increase looked likely to tie in with DfT. Is there any update on this.

It's all a bit of a mess right now.

 

[Dstock7080]

So far as I know, TfL have yet to increase fares, or announce when they will do so, though in December a 1st March increase looked likely to tie in with DfT. Is there any update on this.

TfL to change fares 1 March 2022.

 

[Haywain]

LNER fares all change at the same time, including those for flows wholly in Scotland.