Lack of duplicate coaches on National Express and Megabus during rail strike periods

[Martin1988]

Something that's struck me as odd is that National Express and Megabus seemingly haven't been running duplicates on their services during rail strike periods, at least out of the Bristol area. As far as known an NX service with a dupe can be identified from the journey planner as it will say "High Demand". Instead from looking at the journey planner they've been charging higher fares and letting the journeys sell out. This goes against action taken during previous periods of rail disruption where closures of certain major stations/railway lines has led to NX adding in extra coaches (eg the closure of Bristol Temple Meads back at Easter 2018).

Surely coach operators would want to take advantage of the fact that the trains aren't running and provide excess capacity at a time when surely demand for travel will have been forecast to be higher. A couple of suggestions have been made to me as to why they might not be scheduling dupes to provide extra capacity:

• The driver shortage means that drivers from appointed NX contractors and possibly private hire companies aren't available to provide dupes.
  
  
• Coach companies purposely increasing capacity to respond to the strike action might defeat support for the whole purpose of the strike and what the railway companies are trying to achieve?
  
  
• The extra demand for coach travel as a result of the lack of trains is maybe off set by the passengers who might choose not to travel due to the potential for congestion/disruption on the roads
  
  
• The frequency on some NX routes is now higher than it may have been during previous periods of disruption. For example the NX route between Bristol and London operates half hourly during the weekend period (between Friday and Monday) and up to half hour at times mid week whilst the frequency of the Bristol to Birmingham service is virtually hourly, 7 days a week.
  
  Does anyone have any opinions as to whether any of these suggestions are likely to be the reason as to why coach operators have not scheduled extra services during the recent rail strike periods?

 

[Gloster]

An opinion in answer to your post, particularly the second point. Coach companies are in it for the money: they will trim their coat to whatever gives them the biggest profit. If running their normal service and ramping up prices is best, that is what they will do: no extra costs but more money. In particular, they are not interested in helping or hindering the strike, although they probably have a vague hope that it might push a few long-term passengers their way.

 

[Martin1988]

Thanks for providing me with your opinion on this.

I totally get it that going for the option which provides the highest amount of outcome will be the preferred course of action for most operators.

Thinking about it during the Temple Meads Closure at Easter 2018 am pretty sure there were rail replacement buses and coaches being run so would NX's view then maybe have been "If you're traveling by train you'll end up on road transport anyway and it'll cost more so why not just book a coach the whole way?" Also presumably due to it being a bank holiday the planners at NX must have forecast that there would be higher demand and possibly were going to run the same dupes anyway?

 

[richard13]

I think it comes down to a very practical problem.

Events like the Bristol Temple Meads Closure are planned several years ahead and geographically are very specific. The companies providing the direct rail replacement services and others competing with the rail replacement have the time to plan and move resources to match what they think is cost effective.

The rail strikes are very different. They are short notice and over a wide geographic area. The resources of vehicles and drivers is, particularly at present, very finite. Recently not all planned rail replacements have run and some emergency ones have had no replacement road transport. National Express say in their quarterly briefing that they have been quick to respond to the opportunities offered and have raise their income by 33%. However this is not going to be a duplicate for every coach by a long way, but to very specific flows with two way travel.

(Route One Magazine for one, says: "Nat Ex cites its quick reactions to industrial action on the railways and a growth in demand for coaches during the funeral of Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II as primary factors in the recovery")


Post Covid, general life is different and often more flexible. Working from home actually means working away from the office at any suitable location. Thus people can adjust life to travel on non-strike days and "work from home" somewhere else on a strike day. My daughter changed her weekend away to use trains Thursday after work and return Sunday afternoon, which were strike free, but not free of cancellations for staff shortages.

They will not have any corporate view about the strikes, other than as a business opportunity. Some of the staff will be union members and some are not. However as government funding of the railways is likely to be reduced with fewer trains, then getting people on to coaches now is good forward planning.

 

[Martin1988]

Richard, thanks for a very interesting and very informative response. Something else I'd not considered.