I was going to post this in the good news thread, but think it's worthy enough of its own thread:
www.theguardian.com
What they're saying is that based on 100,000 tests on adults, they're extrapolating that over 3 million people have shown up with Covid antibodies. This is very good news for a few reasons:
a) We can put to bed a lot of the completely ridiculous high IFR rate fears. (Edited out some bad maths)
b) This looks to be just based on antibodies. It doesn't seemingly take into account anyone with t-cell based protection, which is another large proportion of the country
c) This is looking at adults - not having read through the paper in full, it's unclear as to whether they're saying that the numbers they project are adults, but is based off all age groups. Ideally it wouldn't be, given children seem to be more or less invincible from this
This has pretty huge implications in terms of where we stand in terms of herd immunity (and this is clearly pointing more towards it than what the pessimists thought, particularly in areas that were harder hit, i.e. London), and what future strategy should be. It's just a case now of the Government listening to Imperial when they're saying we've all not died, rather than we're all going to die
Up to 6% of England's population may have had Covid, study shows
Imperial College home testing programme finds 13% of Londoners with antibodies
What they're saying is that based on 100,000 tests on adults, they're extrapolating that over 3 million people have shown up with Covid antibodies. This is very good news for a few reasons:
a) We can put to bed a lot of the completely ridiculous high IFR rate fears. (Edited out some bad maths)
b) This looks to be just based on antibodies. It doesn't seemingly take into account anyone with t-cell based protection, which is another large proportion of the country
c) This is looking at adults - not having read through the paper in full, it's unclear as to whether they're saying that the numbers they project are adults, but is based off all age groups. Ideally it wouldn't be, given children seem to be more or less invincible from this
This has pretty huge implications in terms of where we stand in terms of herd immunity (and this is clearly pointing more towards it than what the pessimists thought, particularly in areas that were harder hit, i.e. London), and what future strategy should be. It's just a case now of the Government listening to Imperial when they're saying we've all not died, rather than we're all going to die
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