Lockdown future of Greater Anglia.

[RailWonderer]

While the Stadler trains are mostly in service besides the Stansted route, there is a major concern over the delayed entry into service of the 720 Aventras, and the lack of said units ordered.

A brief summary. There are 22 10 car units to replace 12 car formations, so if 1 720/1 = 3 legacy stock units, all 22 should replace 66 legacy EMUs. There are another 89 units roughly to replace one 4 car unit. 66+89 = 149 units.

There are 202 legacy EMUs in total. Added to that, the 379s have not been re-signed with MacQuarrie (Lloyds or whatever they're called now), which is majorly concerning.
Driver training is suspended, and with the 360s gone in August and possibly 379s to warm storage, and the 321 derogation expiring in December, they will have to go. This is before the new units are even in service.

The 317 derogation ending has come at a fortunate time that GA do not need so many, but when the lockdown eases or ends, GA are in major trouble with everything seemingly falling at the seems. Is there any plan from GA for when this lockdown is over? Only one 720 has been seen in testing and the deliveries can be counted on one hand so far as far as I am aware. I know the narrative is elsewhere at the moment but ToCs have to start thinking about a post-virus level of service.

 

[WrongRoad]

Well for 6 months the Government are paying a fee to the TOC’s for the continued running of services through the virus pandemic so there’s no financial risk. As far as stock issues I guess it will be for the government to decide service levels to the practicality if what can be physically run.

 

[StephenHunter]

The 379s operate on Stansted Express services and since demand for that isn't going to be high for a while, they can be moved onto other services.

 

[D365]

The 379s operate on Stansted Express services and since demand for that isn't going to be high for a while, they can be moved onto other services.

Are you sure that demand won’t return once lockdown begins easing?

 

[Class 170101]

I think Stansted demand won't be back for a while as it relies on other countries not being in lockdown too as well as them trusting that UK visitors won't spread it either.

 

[Glenn1969]

I think it could be a year before people are able to fly without restriction

 

[southern442]

Potentially the Stansted Express could be sacrificed whilst 379s cover for 317s/delayed 720s in the short term. Am I right in thinking the 321's *must* go by December? Are there legacy trains that could stay on for longer?

 

[jopsuk]

especially with the "temporary" structure GA isn't going to run out of trains- the government will just keep writing them derogations until there's enough 720s in service. It really is that simple.

 

[Bald Rick]

You are assuming:

1) rail demand returns to its normal level quickly
2) Stansted demand returns to its normal level quickly
3) the PRM compliant rolling stock going ‘off lease’ won’t have leases extended
4) the PRM non-compliant Rolling stock won’t have further derogations
5) Bombardier won’t deliver sufficient units
6) a 5 car unit will always replace a 4 car unit
7) the 379s are being replaced with 720s

In my opinion:
1) will take several months just to get back to 80%, and years before it fully recovers
2) will take a couple of years to get back to 80%, and the best part of a decade to get back to 2029 levels
3) leases will be extended
4) derogations will be granted if necessary
5) Bombardier will catch up pretty quickly. (A delivery tomorrow, I believe).
6) it won’t. On average, 2 x 5 car units will replace 3 x 4 car units.
7) the 379s are largely being replaced by 745s

You might want to do the maths again...

 

[swt_passenger]

So who is it that’s got “serious concerns”? Just the OP?

 

[306024]

So who is it that’s got “serious concerns”? Just the OP?

And a few other doom and gloom merchants The GA franchise was a financial liability in normal times, but now the whole economy is in the same boat the virus could be their get out of jail (free?) card.

 

[theironroad]

So who is it that’s got “serious concerns”? Just the OP?

Funnily I thought that when i saw the title, even before reading the posts.

 

[StephenHunter]

I think Stansted demand won't be back for a while as it relies on other countries not being in lockdown too as well as them trusting that UK visitors won't spread it either.

Yes. While lifting of restrictions vis a vis Europe will probably come quicker than most, it might be very variable between countries. Spain and Italy in particular might be later. Even then, a lot of older people are going to be relucant to fly.

 

[RailWonderer]

1) rail demand returns to its normal level quickly
2) Stansted demand returns to its normal level quickly
3) the PRM compliant rolling stock going ‘off lease’ won’t have leases extended
4) the PRM non-compliant Rolling stock won’t have further derogations
5) Bombardier won’t deliver sufficient units
6) a 5 car unit will always replace a 4 car unit
7) the 379s are being replaced with 720s

1) You are right about the rail demand, but a normal timetable still has to resume, albeit with cancellations if they don't have the stock and the demand isn't quite up there yet. 2) Stansted is only one small operation amongst the vast amount of East Anglia services. 3, 4)PRM derogations have been granted once, and for some stock twice. GA is abiding to the class 90 and 317 derogations so they have no reason not to abide by the current derogations. They will request a third derogation otherwise.
5) GA have already placed the order and at least 40 units are now confirmed to be completed. 6) All units are 5 car, a 4 car can only be replaced by a 5 car.
7) The 379s are being replaced by 745s on Stansted and by 720s on Cambridge and the limited Kings Lynn services.
I make time for you because I know you know a thing or two, I read your WCML planning/pathing posts but anyone who doesn't have serious concerns does not use the line regularly or is not in the least familiar with the region and the developments over the past months and years. Hence there is no need for those to start posting on here with strange comments ridiculing my post if you don't even use this part of the network.

 

[Wivenswold]

The Lockdown will not finish on Sunday and everyone's back to work on Monday. It will be a process that will extend into 2021, Government health experts have said as much today. Therefore a Sunday service will continue until non-essential workers are allowed to commute to London.

A lot of jobs will be lost in London, particularly in the retail and creative sectors. Jobs have been going already in the financial sectors as companies move their HQs ahead of Brexit. Things will never be the same and I don't say that in a negative way, suddenly families will be able to eat together because mom and pops aren't spending 4 hours commuting to their office.

The other big variable is what railway network emerges out of this. No 10 was preparing to announce a new franchising model using concession contracts, just before this all blew up.

However, if I'm wrong and it's all back to normal in August, there's still not a big problem. Nothing will be scrapped until there are enough trains to run the service on the GEML. We'll be in a national recovery phase similar to that after WWII, priorities will be very different.

 

[Bald Rick]

1) You are right about the rail demand, but a normal timetable still has to resume, albeit with cancellations if they don't have the stock and the demand isn't quite up there yet. 2) Stansted is only one small operation amongst the vast amount of East Anglia services. 3, 4)PRM derogations have been granted once, and for some stock twice. GA is abiding to the class 90 and 317 derogations so they have no reason not to abide by the current derogations. They will request a third derogation otherwise.
5) GA have already placed the order and at least 40 units are now confirmed to be completed. 6) All units are 5 car, a 4 car can only be replaced by a 5 car.
7) The 379s are being replaced by 745s on Stansted and by 720s on Cambridge and the limited Kings Lynn services.
I make time for you because I know you know a thing or two, I read your WCML planning/pathing posts but anyone who doesn't have serious concerns does not use the line regularly or is not in the least familiar with the region and the developments over the past months and years. Hence there is no need for those to start posting on here with strange comments ridiculing my post if you don't even use this part of the network.

I think you’ve misunderstood me, and apologies if my post came across sniffily.

A few clarifications.

Stansted is a small(ish) operation, but it is a significant slice of the GA traffic (and revenue).

I agree Bombardier have built plenty of the units, and when deliveries start in earnest, they will be delivered very quickly. The issue is going to be individual unit acceptance and driver training.

If they need another derogation for PRM, they will seek it, and the current circumstances are a reasonable excuse. Don’t forget that a not insignificant part of the existing EMU fleet already is PRM compliant. The virus has been very convenient for the Class 90 and 317 derogations; without it they would have been in a difficult place.

The point about unit length is crucial. The full existing fleet is only ever in passenger service in the peaks, and that is when you see the 12 cars out. These will be replaced by 2 x 720s (or 1 x 10 car). Which means that, using your numbers:

202x 4 car units
66 replaced by 22 x 10 cars
132 replaced by 89 x 5 cars (as a 3 unit train will in future be a 2 unit train)
20 replaced by 10 x 745s on the Stansteds**

Ie in theory 218 replaced, against 202 actually being replaced.


* this assumes that in peak everything runs as 12 cars today, which it doesn’t. However there is some of slack in the numbers.

** this assumes that the Stansteds run in 8 car formation. In the peaks they are often at 12.


I do know a little bit about the Anglia operation, having worked it in various capacities for the best part of a decade, and count many of those who run it today as my friends. In my opinion, what will happen is:

a) The Bombardier fleet is clearly late, but once the first couple are in service the rest will appear pretty rapidly.

b) The 379s and 321 Renatus will be kept for as long as necessary, and don’t rule out the 360s staying for a little while either.

c) derogations will be sought for PRM non compliance if a) doesn’t happen quick enough, even allowing for b)

d) demand will be sufficiently soft for the next year or so that having a slightly smaller fleet won’t be too much of an issue.

e) the additional services that some of these units were going to run probably won’t happen, as a direct result of the current crisis.

 

[RailWonderer]

A few clarifications.

Agree with most of what you said, only d) The demand on the entire network is a big unknown, but a bit less uncertain with Anglia. It is more of a commuting/business line than it is a leisure line, so I don't expect demand to change as radically as other lines. e) Additional services as per the bid may not run purely for congestion and infrastructure reasons. There isn't the capacity for a 4th Southend and a 3rd Hertford East per hour, capacity with 2 freights , 3 Southends and 6 GEML trains per hour Stratford - Shenfield is enough. The WAML is about as full, taking into account stopping patterns.

 

[StephenHunter]

Parts of it are leisure, mind; especially on the eastern ends.

 

[Bald Rick]

Agree with most of what you said, only d) The demand on the entire network is a big unknown, but a bit less uncertain with Anglia. It is more of a commuting/business line than it is a leisure line, so I don't expect demand to change as radically as other lines. e) Additional services as per the bid may not run purely for congestion and infrastructure reasons. There isn't the capacity for a 4th Southend and a 3rd Hertford East per hour, capacity with 2 freights , 3 Southends and 6 GEML trains per hour Stratford - Shenfield is enough. The WAML is about as full, taking into account stopping patterns.

I think the current crisis will be used as the reason for not running the extra services, rather than the Timetable not working. (The WAML bid timetable was never going to work; the GEML bid timetable can work but needs compromises and money).

 

[306024]

I think the current crisis will be used as the reason for not running the extra services, rather than the Timetable not working. (The WAML bid timetable was never going to work; the GEML bid timetable can work but needs compromises and money).

Not everyone agrees that even the GEML bid timetable can work, the compromises for some stations are not commercially sensible, or politically acceptable in part of the Home Secretary’s constituency. Four Southend’s is arguably the easier part of the bid, depending on where you draw the line on congestion. Getting everything to work from Shenfield to Haughley, including freight is the main challenge.

 

[Bald Rick]

Not everyone agrees that even the GEML bid timetable can work, the compromises for some stations are not commercially sensible, or politically acceptable in part of the Home Secretary’s constituency. Four Southend’s is arguably the easier part of the bid, depending on where you draw the line on congestion. Getting everything to work from Shenfield to Haughley, including freight is the main challenge.

Oh I totally agree, but compromise is all about politics! (Although electric freight would really help)

 

[Bikeman78]

If they need another derogation for PRM, they will seek it, and the current circumstances are a reasonable excuse. Don’t forget that a not insignificant part of the existing EMU fleet already is PRM compliant. The virus has been very convenient for the Class 90 and 317 derogations; without it they would have been in a difficult place.

The point about unit length is crucial. The full existing fleet is only ever in passenger service in the peaks, and that is when you see the 12 cars out. These will be replaced by 2 x 720s (or 1 x 10 car). Which means that, using your numbers:

202x 4 car units
66 replaced by 22 x 10 cars
132 replaced by 89 x 5 cars (as a 3 unit train will in future be a 2 unit train)
20 replaced by 10 x 745s on the Stansteds**

Ie in theory 218 replaced, against 202 actually being replaced.


* this assumes that in peak everything runs as 12 cars today, which it doesn’t. However there is some of slack in the numbers.

** this assumes that the Stansteds run in 8 car formation. In the peaks they are often at 12.

Of the 27 class 317 earmarked for PRM mods I think there are three or four being worked on and around five still to be done. Prior to lockdown they needed 46 diagrams for 55 units so yes they would have struggled. The April 15 deadline for the unmodified PRM units is a bit of a strange one. How was it arrived at? If that was the date when AGA/DFT thought all 27 would be done, they have miscalculated pretty badly. All the other 317s can run until October.

Regarding Stansted Express, the 12 car peak workings ceased last May. The pair of 317s were allocated elsewhere so Stansted reverted to nine pairs of class 379 all day.

Regarding the 720s, AGA have mentioned Autumn as a start date on the Southend line. Provided they keep the 379s then they should manage without the non PRM 317s. The large fleet of non PRM class 321s is the bigger problem.

Of course there are many unknowns at the moment, e.g. when will driver training resume?

 

[Class 170101]

Oh I totally agree, but compromise is all about politics! (Although electric freight would really help)

Or insisting on a 1600 tonne path on the down road when its mostly empty containers or flats going past the window...

Not everyone agrees that even the GEML bid timetable can work, the compromises for some stations are not commercially sensible, or politically acceptable in part of the Home Secretary’s constituency. Four Southend’s is arguably the easier part of the bid, depending on where you draw the line on congestion. Getting everything to work from Shenfield to Haughley, including freight is the main challenge.

As for Patel the main station there is Witham the rest are relatively small in the grand scheme of things concerning the GEML, she needs to pipe down.

 

[Bald Rick]

Thing is, the boxes aren’t empty. A lot of them are heavier than import, as many are full of scrap metal. Or whisky. I agree those with empty flats are not going to be 1600t, but each path only needs to be 1600t occasionally to have the timetable fall over if it’s pathed at 1375 or whatever it is.