The central London bus cuts are unlikely to result a substantial increase in extra car or taxi journeys. The affected passengers are almost certainly going to continue using buses which are still very frequent and still very comprehensive by European standards.
London is already a pretty unique market, with many passengers taking the bus by choice, not need.
This is a curious set of changes for two reasons, namely breaking connections and making the network appear less stable overall.
Reducing the number of direct links for people who likely are already changing modes and perhaps already have an expensive electric runabout sitting in their leafy inner suburban driveway, and are probably already only commuting for part of the week, might tip the balance for a few passengers.
It's also odd that they prefer tinkering over more direct cuts to whole routes where alternatives exist for say the two halves. Knowing the network is stable is a big selling point. Stability of specific routes that exist, similarly. Withdrawing a whole route is easier to reverse too, if conditions improve.
If passengers get the idea TfL's default approach when finances are tough is to introduce instability in a bean counter way to satisfy the hard core captured market, rather than thinking about casual or prospective user's needs, well, are they getting the benefits of Londom having a publicly subsidized integrated bus network at all?
To stop this bleeding, TfL are in the unenviable position of having to be even more anti-car at a time of cutting the usefulness of the bus network.
People really won't care if their historical bus provision is still very high, it only reminds people this only came as a result of splashing the cash of ordinary Londoners. Many of whom also now have to change buses, and must now be wondering if this was the reason for the hopper fare all along...
Most privatized operators and certainly smaller munipals long ago learnt the value of not tinkering with routes to save money, preferring instead to reduce frequencies or cut evening or weekend services.
The only major route revisions in my large city are extensions or re-routings to actually try and serve new markets.
Only yesterday I traveled a route that traces back to tram days. It's as useful as ever, linking a main artery and large suburb on one side, while being ghe only bus to travel the centre to hospital route on the other.
I saved money on the day ticket, needing only a return, despite it being an end to end journey. To my mind, the TfL approach to belt tightening would cut this route in half, my half.
They would perhaps see that my side of the route already has good services into town, and they probably don't care that this makes a just about bearable 45 minute run (barring the usual road blocking from inconveniently parked cars), into one that on a bad day or off peak might approach an hour, plus a wait at a city stop that is grim and uninviting, due to building works and congested city streets.
There is one tiny bit of road this would leave unserved, but it's only a few stops, so if adjusting other routes wouldn't do, re-routing the already zip ziggy peripheral air moving nonsense that has second class bus user written all over it, they could probably get away with arguing demographic changes mean this has less of an impact, since the suburb is now one of the nicer parts of town.
A consultation would do no good, since if you remove the negative effect of forcing changes, if probably looks like it would save a lot of money.
I can make that journey by bike in 30 minutes, withiut ever touching a road except to cross it. It's a fifteen minute run in the car or a taxi, and a taxi is probably only a few quid more. All because the route is only economical as a city crosser. This was true from the earliest tram days, and will only change when universal personal public transit becomes a thing, in maybe 50 years?
I am only an occasional user, but my early morning (6.30) run picked up plenty of custom, including I dare say a fair few hospital workers. People who, even the immigrants, seem to already be well off enough to be talking about houses and cars. Tfl is in a bad place if nurses are made to feel like it is anti-car policies not pro-bus policies that are keeping them on the Kahnbahn.