Long term social distancing: Impact on public life & public transport?

[Huntergreed]

By the sounds of what Sturgeon has been discussing in her briefing today, it sounds like if the masses are allowed out more in England, in Scotland the current measures will still apply. It’ll be interesting to see, if this does indeed happen, what the rules will be surrounding crossing the border.

 

[Islineclear3_1]

According to the Sun newspaper, Scotland has indeed extended the lockdown and says "ditching stay-at-home message could be mistake"

Lockdown extended for 3 weeks with only minor tweaks after Boris orders 'maximum caution'

BRITAIN’S lockdown was extended by three weeks yesterday – after Boris Johnson urged “maximum caution”. Dominic Raab confirmed the news that there is “no change”…

www.thesun.co.uk

NICOLA Sturgeon has today confirmed Scotland will stay in lockdown and claimed easing any measures would be “too risky”.



Scotland First Minister revealed the lockdown would continue in Scotland despite signs of progress.

 

[111-111-1]

perhaps as I said with compulsory reservations.

You continually witter on with your obsession with compulsory resevations.

NOT practical or even possible on commuter services.

NOT workable on intercity services. If you have ever travelled on GWR when Glastonbury or West of England restrictions are on you might understand. Controlled at Paddington but west of there it all falls appart. Even in France and the like it only works where there are barrier controls and the high fines if you don't have a reservation.

 

[CaptainHaddock]

You continually witter on with your obsession with compulsory resevations.

NOT practical or even possible on commuter services.

NOT workable on intercity services. If you have ever travelled on GWR when Glastonbury or West of England restrictions are on you might understand. Controlled at Paddington but west of there it all falls appart. Even in France and the like it only works where there are barrier controls and the high fines if you don't have a reservation.

Indeed, and I think people are overcomplicating the issue here. What TOCs need to do is simply ask passengers to maintain social distancing "where possible", which makes it clear that it may not be possible to sit more than 1 metre away from the nearest person if you travel at busy times. No need for draconian measures such as compulsory reservations or facemasks.

I would also, as an experimental measure, allow leisure travel at weekends only, so TOCs can get a clear picture of how busy trains are likely to be post-lockdown. As recent opinion polls show that a majority of people would feel cautious about using public transport again I don't think they'll be quite as busy as some may think.

 

[Bikeman78]

This might for example at least allow one person per double seat/bay of seats rather than missing rows out, which, commuter times aside, starts to make the railway look a little more feasible to open up more widely, perhaps as I said with compulsory reservations.

I don't think reservations will be necessary at first. Valley lines was basically dead in the week leading up to lockdown. Even peak loadings were way down. Once the furlough scheme ramps down, the fun will start. I think people will overcome their fear of the virus if the alternative is losing their home!

The Guardian has an item which claims that walking and cycling could rise tenfold in London as people try to avoid the tube. Ironically this will probably result in a lot more cyclist fatalities. Scaring people off public transport is a risky strategy.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The Guardian has an item which claims that walking and cycling could rise tenfold in London as people try to avoid the tube. Ironically this will probably result in a lot more cyclist fatalities. Scaring people off public transport is a risky strategy.

I'm not sure it will. There's a concept with cycling called "critical mass". If there are enough of them that they basically control the road and the cars are guests, it makes them a lot safer. Perhaps bizarrely, more cyclists makes cycling safer.

 

[nedchester]

I don't think reservations will be necessary at first. Valley lines was basically dead in the week leading up to lockdown. Even peak loadings were way down. Once the furlough scheme ramps down, the fun will start. I think people will overcome their fear of the virus if the alternative is losing their home!

Yep. All these surveys about people not wanting to go to work but suspect things will change when the furloughing stops (which it will)

 

[Bikeman78]

I'm not sure it will. There's a concept with cycling called "critical mass". If there are enough of them that they basically control the road and the cars are guests, it makes them a lot safer. Perhaps bizarrely, more cyclists makes cycling safer.

Perhaps you're right. I've been commuting to work for 20 years without mishap. Had a few close shaves over the years. The old favourite of overtaking and immediately turning left being the most common.

 

[westv]

Yep. All these surveys about people not wanting to go to work but suspect things will change when the furloughing stops (which it will)

25% of employees are furloughed (according to something I read on the BBC the other day). That then leaves 75% of workers, a sizeable proportion of which won't currently be at work (but many are still working though)

 

[Freightmaster]

There's a concept with cycling called "critical mass". If there are enough of them that they basically control the road and the cars are guests, it makes them a lot safer. Perhaps bizarrely, more cyclists makes cycling safer.

While that is undoubtedly true, I can't see a city like London becoming another Amsterdam anytime soon,
even if 'coffee shops' were legalised!



MARK

 

[bramling]

In the 90s and 00s the railway, despite being an industry with a great deal of minute details that require to be managed to ensure it's successful operation, dispensed with a large amount of it's management experience following privatisation.

With management grades generally being in for little more pay than operational ones with much more mucking about there is little interest in progression in that direction from the shop floor.

Consequently there are a lot of railway managers out there who know nothing of operating a rail service. Not a single one of my current management team has ever done my job, and I'm not interested as someone who does a bit of overtime to afford a few luxuries in taking the paycut to have all the hassle including disciplinaries and on call.

An unintended consequence of all this is that much of your 'railway' expertise in terms of how things will work in practice with changes and new ideas, and particularly fairly technical things like diagrams, is actually gained when you run them by the unions for appraisal and it isn't at all unusual to have managers pop into the union reps or call them to ask 'what do you think about this?' regardless if they'd normally be consulted or not.

Just going by 'computer says yes' gets you things like a local service that is frequently curtailed or cancelled because the driver is scheduled a short cab environment break following working one of the worst performing long distance trains at the company.

The union can kick stuff like that back and say 'have you noticed this is a potential problem?'.

The same applies to building the rosters - the company comes up with the diagrams, they're run by local managers and the union reps to spot errors or make amendments with planning section having the final say and then the reps, who actually know how things go on the ground, build a roster to be approved by the managers.

Until you actually see it function it's hard to appreciate how and why it works and yes, there is occasionally some silliness over basic things, however for the most part it is beneficial for all parties.

Wonderful post, and sums things up absolutely perfectly IME.

A place I know has been going through hell with its ER as a result of all this. Once they finally sat down with the union reps a workable plan was thrashed out within hours, and now everyone - including management - are extremely pleased with the outcome.

On a different note, from what I’ve heard today, it looks like masks are very much on the menu going forward. Whether this is simply a London thing or public transport in general I’m not sure.

 

[greyman42]

By the sounds of what Sturgeon has been discussing in her briefing today, it sounds like if the masses are allowed out more in England, in Scotland the current measures will still apply. It’ll be interesting to see, if this does indeed happen, what the rules will be surrounding crossing the border.

In effect, there is no border.

 

[ruaival]

In effect, there is no border.

yet I recall the single bay smoking "compartment" at each end of GNER cross-border services during the time Scotland had banned it and England hadn't ... perhaps the Northbound train will pull up at Berwick-upon-Tweed station and an announcement invite all non-mask wearers to alight ?

 

[david1212]

....

Consequently there are a lot of railway managers out there who know nothing of operating a rail service. Not a single one of my current management team has ever done my job, and I'm not interested as someone who does a bit of overtime to afford a few luxuries in taking the paycut to have all the hassle including disciplinaries and on call.
In the 90s and 00s the railway, despite being an industry with a great deal of minute details that require to be managed to ensure it's successful operation, dispensed with a large amount of it's management experience following privatisation.



With management grades generally being in for little more pay than operational ones with much more mucking about there is little interest in progression in that direction from the shop floor.

An unintended consequence of all this is that much of your 'railway' expertise in terms of how things will work in practice with changes and new ideas, and particularly fairly technical things like diagrams, is actually gained when you run them by the unions for appraisal and it isn't at all unusual to have managers pop into the union reps or call them to ask 'what do you think about this?' regardless if they'd normally be consulted or not.

Just going by 'computer says yes' gets you things like a local service that is frequently curtailed or cancelled because the driver is scheduled a short cab environment break following working one of the worst performing long distance trains at the company.

The union can kick stuff like that back and say 'have you noticed this is a potential problem?'.

The same applies to building the rosters - the company comes up with the diagrams, they're run by local managers and the union reps to spot errors or make amendments with planning section having the final say and then the reps, who actually know how things go on the ground, build a roster to be approved by the managers.

Until you actually see it function it's hard to appreciate how and why it works and yes, there is occasionally some silliness over basic things, however for the most part it is beneficial for all parties.

This is something I am regularly commenting on almost regardless of the industry / business.

Once most people started at the bottom and climbed the ladder rung by rung. While some climbed faster than others it meant they had done the job and seen the real world practical issues.

Now they come out of university and go straight to the desk job. Whether using a computer program or their fundamentally their own work from theory they deliver something that will work so long as everything is perfect or at least within a nominal tolerance. Only when implemented is it found the nominal tolerances can not be adhered to in reality.

For rail how many times has it been said that " We could run a great railway if only there were no passengers " ? Similarly for bus routes but adding no other traffic.

 

[Pakenhamtrain]

Australia and New Zealand have clearly done very well in containing COVID-19 so far, but they are both heading into their Winter. I do wonder if they will be able to continue to contain or even in eradicate it over the winter months, or whether there will be a resurgence.

If it wasn't for the state premiers doing thier own thing we would be stuffed. The Feds had to be dragged kicking and screaming.
Whoever let those passengers off the Ruby Princess at Circular Quay needs to be shot. That's been the biggest stuff up so far.

We are about to start easing off restrictions. We will be all doing it in different ways.

Funny enough railway wise Metro has been running a normal service. As a result the railway has had the best on time performance since 2004.

 

[al78]

I already said so and I said it again - the first part of that sentence does not in any way imply the second.

Again, evidence please.

It think it is best to interpret his statement as a probabilistic assessment. When he says "it won't be the same", he means the probability that it will be the same is infinitesimally small, that to a first and very good approximation, it won't be the same. It is like saying that if a severe windstorm is forecast to hit the UK in five days time, it would a very good approximation to say it won't be like October 1987, because there are so many variables in play and the weather, like the economy, is a chaotic system.

 

[leightonbd]

According to the Sun newspaper, Scotland has indeed extended the lockdown and says "ditching stay-at-home message could be mistake"

Lockdown extended for 3 weeks with only minor tweaks after Boris orders 'maximum caution'

BRITAIN’S lockdown was extended by three weeks yesterday – after Boris Johnson urged “maximum caution”. Dominic Raab confirmed the news that there is “no change”…

www.thesun.co.uk

NICOLA Sturgeon has today confirmed Scotland will stay in lockdown and claimed easing any measures would be “too risky”.



Scotland First Minister revealed the lockdown would continue in Scotland despite signs of progress.

Scotrail remains on message too. Is that, in fact, a little over forceful, given what the regulations actually say about ‘reasonable excuse’?

 

[al78]

As Yorkie said, some people seem to want to. I suppose if you are sat at home happy on 80% of your wage, don't have much of a social life and are a bit of a couch potato, then this lockdown will have its appeal.

And don't have any friends or loved ones, so love and affection mean nothing.

 

[HH]

It think it is best to interpret his statement as a probabilistic assessment. When he says "it won't be the same", he means the probability that it will be the same is infinitesimally small, that to a first and very good approximation, it won't be the same. It is like saying that if a severe windstorm is forecast to hit the UK in five days time, it would a very good approximation to say it won't be like October 1987, because there are so many variables in play and the weather, like the economy, is a chaotic system.

Precisely.

And don't have any friends or loved ones, so love and affection mean nothing.

But this is daft. I think the number of people who are actually enjoying the lockdown is pretty small. It's simply that some are stoic and some are neurotic.

 

[317 forever]

By the sounds of what Sturgeon has been discussing in her briefing today, it sounds like if the masses are allowed out more in England, in Scotland the current measures will still apply. It’ll be interesting to see, if this does indeed happen, what the rules will be surrounding crossing the border.

There may well be some divergence in lockdown guidelines now. Apparently Scotland's R rate is nearer 1.0 than England's now.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotl...s/scotland&link_location=live-reporting-story

[/URL]

 

[Bungle73]

It seems once the lockdown is relaxed, they are going to have continue to have some kind of social distancing on public transport (for god knows how long). But what does this mean for the leisure traveller? Do you think we will be banned? This would be completely unacceptable, as it would leave me and a lot of other people effectively stranded and unable to go anywhere or do anything!

Thoughts?

Actually I'd like to include the Tube in that as well, as a major part of my leisure time is spent travelling up to London on the train,then using the Tube to visit museums, attractions, to get to the start of walks.

 

[greyman42]

By the sounds of what Sturgeon has been discussing in her briefing today, it sounds like if the masses are allowed out more in England, in Scotland the current measures will still apply. It’ll be interesting to see, if this does indeed happen, what the rules will be surrounding crossing the border.

This being the case then you would probably avoid visiting Scotland.

 

[JonathanH]

It seems once the lockdown is relaxed, they are going to have continue to have some kind of social distancing on public transport (for god knows how long). But what does this mean for the leisure traveller? Do you think we will be banned? This would be completely unacceptable, as it would leave me and a lot of other people effectively stranded and unable to go anywhere or do anything!

Thoughts?

Actually I'd like to include the Tube in that as well, as a major part of my leisure time is spent travelling up to London on the train,then using the Tube to visit museums, attractions, to get to the start of walks.

Realistically, the transport network is going to be prioritised towards essential travel for some time. Clearly it going to take a bit of time before travel is unrestricted even if people can travel a bit more locally after an initial level of lockdown easement.

In the normal course of events, there is less essential travel at the weekend and during off-peak times so, in time, there could presumably be some capacity for travel which is not essential but it is going to have to be limited.

I'd like to think that people don't consider themselves stranded just because they can't travel long distances or use transport - there is virtue in people exploring and walking in their own area, seeing things not noted before. There is always something new of notice, even within an hour or so of people's front door.

I think this is great https://www.lner.co.uk/our-destinations/travel-inspiration/virtual-days-out/ - providing virtual experience of days out in the current circumstances - yes, I know it isn't visiting in person but the experience of being taken through the gardens at Kew https://www.kew.org/about-us/virtual-kew-wakehurst or the British Museum https://britishmuseum.withgoogle.com/ is the next best thing to visiting. This sort of thing, with donations, is how attractions are going to have to adapt to survive.

 

[Huntergreed]

Realistically, the transport network is going to be prioritised towards essential travel for some time. Clearly it going to take a bit of time before travel is unrestricted even if people can travel a bit more locally after an initial level of lockdown easement.

In the normal course of events, there is less essential travel at the weekend and during off-peak times so, in time, there could presumably be some capacity for travel which is not essential but it is going to have to be limited.

I'd like to think that people don't consider themselves stranded just because they can't travel long distances or use transport - there is virtue in people exploring and walking in their own area, seeing things not noted before. There is always something new of notice, even within an hour or so of people's front door.

I think this is great https://www.lner.co.uk/our-destinations/travel-inspiration/virtual-days-out/ - providing virtual experience of days out in the current circumstances - yes, I know it isn't visiting in person but the experience of being taken through the gardens at Kew https://www.kew.org/about-us/virtual-kew-wakehurst or the British Museum https://britishmuseum.withgoogle.com/ is the next best thing to visiting. This sort of thing, with donations, is how attractions are going to have to adapt to survive.

There needs to be a balance struck, otherwise the system is discriminating against non-car owners and that's not acceptable at all. I imagine it'll be a careful combination of compulsory reservations, face masks and perhaps restricting it to essential work travel (with proof required through showing a letter/ID badge) during peak hours to prevent too much overcrowding

 

[JonathanH]

There needs to be a balance struck, otherwise the system is discriminating against non-car owners and that's not acceptable at all. I imagine it'll be a careful combination of compulsory reservations, face masks and perhaps restricting it to essential work travel (with proof required through showing a letter/ID badge) during peak hours to prevent too much overcrowding

Yes, as previously indicated, I am not an advocate of a free-for-all on car travel, particularly due to the 'honeypot' effect of people choosing to go to the same places.

Are you indicating that non-car owners should get priortity on public transport after essential travellers and that travel is the only way of getting out of the house for people?

 

[Huntergreed]

Are you indicating that non-car owners should get priortity on public transport after essential travellers and that travel is the only way of getting out of the house for people?

Not at all, I'm saying that peak hour travel should be restricted to essential purposes that requires proof of a letter or ID badge to show that travel is essential. Outside of these times, compulsory reservations should be made on all services (which would be available until they have run out, including on the day) accompanied with a seat allocation, wearing face masks and reducing the distancing to 1m (1 per table or bay of 2/3 seats unless from the same household (or 'social bubble' soon it may be) to ensure social distancing is maintained whilst the transport network is still open and available.

 

[JonathanH]

Not at all, I'm saying that peak hour travel should be restricted to essential purposes that requires proof of a letter or ID badge to show that travel is essential. Outside of these times, compulsory reservations should be made on all services (which would be available until they have run out, including on the day) accompanied with a seat allocation, wearing face masks and reducing the distancing to 1m (1 per table or bay of 2/3 seats unless from the same household (or 'social bubble' soon it may be) to ensure social distancing is maintained whilst the transport network is still open and available.

OK, I think I am saying that as there is some relaxation, if there is, people should consider whether their aspiration for travel exceeds that of anyone else, whether by car or by public transport.

In my case, that will mean that I will keep travel to an absolute minimum which may well mean that I don't board a train again for many, many years and keep car use to a minimum because I feel that I can manage without travelling in the future (but I am accepting that others will have different needs).

 

[Mogster]

Outside London I can’t see the railway being very busy for some time to come.

I commuted into Manchester each day from Wigan by rail because the road situation was so bad. I wont be returning to the railway until the road traffic situation becomes untenable again. I suspect many will feel the same. Enforcing mask wearing won’t exactly encourage people to return to public transport either as it’ll suggest public transport is dangerous.

It‘ll be interesting to see how quickly the roads are returned to gridlock status.

 

[Bikeman78]

Not at all, I'm saying that peak hour travel should be restricted to essential purposes that requires proof of a letter or ID badge to show that travel is essential. Outside of these times, compulsory reservations should be made on all services (which would be available until they have run out, including on the day) accompanied with a seat allocation, wearing face masks and reducing the distancing to 1m (1 per table or bay of 2/3 seats unless from the same household (or 'social bubble' soon it may be) to ensure social distancing is maintained whilst the transport network is still open and available.

I don't think reservations will be needed for quite a long time. I've been told that the average number of passengers per train in Wales is five. I've no idea how that figure has been calculated. A 150 could carry around 30 passengers so there is quite a lot of slack.

I honestly don't think seat reservations will happen on most routes, especially not on routes where the type of unit that turns up on the day is a lottery. Then of course there is the matter of disruption and cancelled trains. If the line is shut for two hours between Paddington and Reading, what then? You can't just tell people not to travel. Some will be heading home.

 

[al78]

Perhaps you're right. I've been commuting to work for 20 years without mishap. Had a few close shaves over the years. The old favourite of overtaking and immediately turning left being the most common.

Many cycling deaths in London are from left turning lorries at junctions, either when the cyclist has gone up the inside at traffic lights (which cycle lanes encourage), or the lorry has pulled alongside the cyclist. A cyclist can greatly reduce their risk of a serious injury or death by not going up this inside of large vehicles and by taking the lane (i.e. stop in the primary position, not next to the kerb).