Lumo applies to operate Rochdale - London

[Grimsby town]

Clearly based on fact? Or finger in the air estimate?

Preston is a minimum 8 minute connection time so it should be based off that. Also estimations of the direct time are massively dependent on pathing as you always see with OA so could end up sat awaiting time at a few junctions.

So it’s all pretty moot at the moment as Lumo will be using BEMU’s.

The Blackburn and East Lancs has to be the largest urban area without a direct service to London. Population is a big determinant of demand. Sure the economy is fairly week but improved rail services are a way of growing that economy. Its not like I'm suggesting it deserves multiple trains pet hour.

Why should it be based on an 8 minute minimum connection time if there is no service where that is possible from Burnley. It should be based on actual journey time. Yes this whole conversation is path dependent but it would seem that the journey time via Manchester would be similar to that via Preston.

The whole conversation is moot because I don't see there being the paths for the Rochdale service (as I've already said). My argument was that Burnley is a large enough urban area to generate demand and has a poor service to both Manchester and London so is a logical extension. Definitely more logical than Bradford with its multiple London and Manchester services.

 

[Neptune]

The Blackburn and East Lancs has to be the largest urban area without a direct service to London. Population is a big determinant of demand. Sure the economy is fairly week but improved rail services are a way of growing that economy. Its not like I'm suggesting it deserves multiple trains pet hour.

Ok fair point however what is the target market?

You see remote working, online meetings etc… is a major thing now. London business trains aren’t what they were pre-2020.

As a for instance, thanks to flexible working I moved from suburban West Yorkshire (4tph) to remote North Yorkshire (1tph) because I’m only needed in the office a handful of times a year. Now I’m far from unique in that situation. I have a neighbour who works for a firm in Canary Wharf and once a month has to travel. All other work and meetings are done remotely. They used to live in Grantham and commute each day. Same with another neighbour who works for a firm in Edinburgh and used to live in North Berwick. We all have normal office jobs (not high flying finance or anything like that) that flexible working has changed beyond the pale. So that target market is clearly not their as this is a countrywide thing.

So what is it? Leisure? Can’t see there being a 7 day per week demand for that. What else is there?

Why should it be based on an 8 minute minimum connection time if there is no service where that is possible from Burnley. It should be based on actual journey time. Yes this whole conversation is path dependent but it would seem that the journey time via Manchester would be similar to that via Preston.

But will that path exist and join up with one along the East Lancs route or will there be the usual long waits typical of open access? My experience of Vic and the East Lancs is that the answer is ‘unlikely’.

The whole conversation is moot because I don't see there being the paths for the Rochdale service (as I've already said). My argument was that Burnley is a large enough urban area to generate demand and has a poor service to both Manchester and London so is a logical extension. Definitely more logical than Bradford with its multiple London and Manchester services.

I agree it will be tough but far easier to path from Rochdale than further out although as mentioned TRU will totally alter the landscape once that is further on.

Bradford/Halifax is just ridiculous and would never happen. It sounds more like a personal wish for a slightly quicker journey on a slightly bigger train from Halifax to Manchester and return rather than anything thought out for the greater good. The East Lancs would have a marginally better case due to current service provision but I’d still put that idea at ‘close to zero’ in chances of happening, especially as there will be no wires going up for these BEMU’s to take advantage of.

 

[Clarence Yard]

Can we move the discussion back to the proposal please? For some of the reasons mentioned above, there is no current desire to go beyond Rochdale. Rochdale is where the service ends.

 

[Grimsby town]

Ok fair point however what is the target market?

You see remote working, online meetings etc… is a major thing now. London business trains aren’t what they were pre-2020.

As a for instance, thanks to flexible working I moved from suburban West Yorkshire (4tph) to remote North Yorkshire (1tph) because I’m only needed in the office a handful of times a year. Now I’m far from unique in that situation. I have a neighbour who works for a firm in Canary Wharf and once a month has to travel. All other work and meetings are done remotely. They used to live in Grantham and commute each day. Same with another neighbour who works for a firm in Edinburgh and used to live in North Berwick. We all have normal office jobs (not high flying finance or anything like that) that flexible working has changed beyond the pale. So that target market is clearly not their as this is a countrywide thing.

So what is it? Leisure? Can’t see there being a 7 day per week demand for that. What else is there?

At the same time being able to work from home makes commuting easier to London from more isolated places like Burnley (and the surronding area) and it has grown the leisure market. Open Acess Operators are doing remarkably well at the moment in terms of passenger numbers so if anything the market has grown is Covid.

How do Grand Central make Bradord and Sunderland services work? They are bigger places than Blackburn and Burnley (although no massively bigger) but the open access routes have have poor journey times compared with interchanging at Leeds or Newcastle or driving to Durham in the case of Sunderland.

A service to Burnley via Victoria has the advantage of being competitive of travelling via Preston and providing competitive service to Manchester. In my book that makes it more feasible than the Grand Central services.

But will that path exist and join up with one along the East Lancs route or will there be the usual long waits typical of open access? My experience of Vic and the East Lancs is that the answer is ‘unlikely’.

I agree it will be tough but far easier to path from Rochdale than further out although as mentioned TRU will totally alter the landscape once that is further on.

Bradford/Halifax is just ridiculous and would never happen. It sounds more like a personal wish for a slightly quicker journey on a slightly bigger train from Halifax to Manchester and return rather than anything thought out for the greater good. The East Lancs would have a marginally better case due to current service provision but I’d still put that idea at ‘close to zero’ in chances of happening, especially as there will be no wires going up for these BEMU’s to take advantage of.

The biggest show stopper is going to be capacity through Manchester and on the WCML. The Calder Valley Line isn't completely at capacity as the TRU diversions show. The TRU diversions are another potential barrier to a service operating though. I can't say for definite if there are paths that join up obviously.

I know TfGM were looking into electrifying Rochdale, which might facilitate the extension. I think there's close to zero chance of the whole service happening, there won't be capacity until HS2 phase 2 is done and if HS2 phase 2 is finished, most London pax will use that.

Can we move the discussion back to the proposal please? For some of the reasons mentioned above, there is no current desire to go beyond Rochdale. Rochdale is where the service ends.

To bring it back on topic. I don't think the proposal will happen because:

• Paths are needed through Rochdale for TRU diversions
• Paths are needed in Victoria for additonal TPE trains
• The service has to go through the already constrained Ordsall Junction
• Greater Manchester wants a Wigan to Manchester service via Eccles for the new Golborne service
• HS2 needs capacity north of Handsacre

It'd probably be a popular service and I'd likely use it personally. It'd also potentially provide better connections for places like Hebden Bridge, Todmorden, Burnley etc. which can't access Piccadilly easily but there simply isn't the capacity.

 

[mike57]

Putting Rochdale to London into the National Rail Journey planner as Rochdale to London (all stations) for travel now shows 4 options over the next hour, 1 with a single change in Leeds at 3h49m and 3 via Manchester, all requiring transfer bewteen Vic and Pic at around 3h10m +-.

Given the Pic Vic transfer I would have thought Rochdale passengers for London would use a through service even if it didnt save much time, just for convenience, I could imagine people opting for the one change Leeds route currently if the have luggage, youngsters or mobility problems, just for the convenience, even although it 30-40mins slower (its also cheaper).

An interesting test would be what percentage of Rochdale London passengers choose that route.

By serving Man Vic what other London journeys would be simplified by changing there rather than Man Pic?

 

[pokemonsuper9]

By serving Man Vic what other London journeys would be simplified by changing there rather than Man Pic?

Pretty much any area with a direct service to Victoria would benefit.
When going South I usually go via Wigan rather than Manchester to avoid the change in the city (and because it's faster), but with a London service from Manchester Victoria going via Manchester would be more reasonable (Especially if it's cheaper ).

 

[mangyiscute]

Pretty much any area with a direct service to Victoria would benefit.
When going South I usually go via Wigan rather than Manchester to avoid the change in the city (and because it's faster), but with a London service from Manchester Victoria going via Manchester would be more reasonable (Especially if it's cheaper ).

Although most of the other lines to Victoria come from the west of Manchester, who will most likely do as you said and go over to the WCML to catch a faster train from there, or quite a few of those lines also have piccadilly services (or a change at salford crescent onto piccadilly services)

 

[cle]

Wouldn't dwell at Victoria be a big issue here? It'll be the largest demand generator on the route and is ostensibly a through-suburban/regional platform. Whereas you'll have doddery occasionals looking for their carriage, with luggage, etc etc - I wonder how long they can bag for the call.

 

[The Planner]

Wouldn't dwell at Victoria be a big issue here? It'll be the largest demand generator on the route and is ostensibly a through-suburban/regional platform. Whereas you'll have doddery occasionals looking for their carriage, with luggage, etc etc - I wonder how long they can bag for the call.

2 minutes tops more than likely.

 

[Killingworth]

Wouldn't dwell at Victoria be a big issue here? It'll be the largest demand generator on the route and is ostensibly a through-suburban/regional platform. Whereas you'll have doddery occasionals looking for their carriage, with luggage, etc etc - I wonder how long they can bag for the call.

Less of the doddery please My grandson uses Lumo and hasn't reported that to be an issue.

 

[Halifaxlad]

Can we move the discussion back to the proposal please? For some of the reasons mentioned above, there is no current desire to go beyond Rochdale. Rochdale is where the service ends.

Perhaps this thread needs splitting into two ?

I know TfGM were looking into electrifying Rochdale, which might facilitate the extension. I think there's close to zero chance of the whole service happening, there won't be capacity until HS2 phase 2 is done and if HS2 phase 2 is finished, most London pax will use that.

Hasnt NR tendered for design work to wire from Victoria to Rochdale ?

 

[mangyiscute]

2 minutes tops more than likely.

If it's going to be the main generator of traffic, you'd expect 200+ people boarding/alighting from about 8 doors, considering people won't spread evenly and some will take ages putting luggage away etc, I'd want at least 4 minutes scheduled to avoid any delays. Towards rochdale, less would probably be fine since it wouldn't matter too much if it was slightly delayed, but towards London with loads getting on you'd want that extra time. A similar situation is when the cotswold line service arrives in Oxford towards London, and I've seen trains spend 5 mins on the platform due to the amount of people boarding and crowding the platform (eg from yesterday: https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/service/gb-nr:G60498/2024-05-19/detailed)

 

[The Planner]

If it's going to be the main generator of traffic, you'd expect 200+ people boarding/alighting from about 8 doors, considering people won't spread evenly and some will take ages putting luggage away etc, I'd want at least 4 minutes scheduled to avoid any delays. Towards rochdale, less would probably be fine since it wouldn't matter too much if it was slightly delayed, but towards London with loads getting on you'd want that extra time. A similar situation is when the cotswold line service arrives in Oxford towards London, and I've seen trains spend 5 mins on the platform due to the amount of people boarding and crowding the platform (eg from yesterday: https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/service/gb-nr:G60498/2024-05-19/detailed)

Most GWML WCML and ECML stations cope with 2 or 3 minutes.

 

[Grimsby town]

Hasnt NR tendered for design work to wire from Victoria to Rochdale ?

Not sure to be honest. I was working on the stations on the CLC line a year or so ago, and staff member told me there'd been people surveying that line for electrification. I know the Rochdale like is at a similar level of development.

 

[td97]

Hasnt NR tendered for design work to wire from Victoria to Rochdale ?

Not sure to be honest. I was working on the stations on the CLC line a year or so ago, and staff member told me there'd been people surveying that line for electrification. I know the Rochdale like is at a similar level of development.

Correct, both under design development

 

[GJMarshy]

Victoria is woefully under-suited to long-distance TPE services, never mind trains with circa 600 people travelling to London. It just isn't fit for purpose as an intercity station, and that arena is going nowhere. This limits it to 4 cramped through platforms with a single over-bridge (no escalators) and very limited passenger facilities compared to Piccadilly with only one, relatively small gateline.

Having used it a few times very recently it really is an awful experience. It's a jack of all trades and master of none. It should be for local & regional Northern (& future GM Rail) services exclusively. Shorter dwell-times, higher throughput.

The idea of London-bound services using it seems completely bonkers. Not only is the station not up to scratch, but as others have pointed out there's no margin for error given how precarious the timetable through there is, and the frequent delays, cancellations and diversions. If an open-access operator (presumably a budget model) wants to run from Manchester to London service, it can only realistically be Manchester Airport to Euston. Yes you'd have onward-travel into the city, but if the target demographic is mostly residents or those looking for a cheaper option, it isn't difficult to get there from the city centre and all of south Manchester. In fact in some cases it's more convenient.

There's no more capacity through stockport so that rules that out, and running into Piccadilly via castlefield is clearly off the table. That puts Manchester Airport as the only viable terminus for such a service as far as reliability and managing passenger-flow is concerned. Heck roughly half of GM's population live south of the city centre. The airport may actually be far more convenient for them for a London-Bound service, rather than schlepping up to Piccadilly only to come back on yourself.

 

[Mcr Warrior]

Victoria is woefully under-suited to long-distance TPE services, never mind trains with circa 600 people travelling to London. It just isn't fit for purpose as an intercity station, and that arena is going nowhere. This limits it to 4 cramped through platforms with a single over-bridge (no escalators) and very limited passenger facilities compared to Piccadilly with only one, relatively small gateline.

Broadly agree, but wouldn't any London bound train originating from Rochdale and calling at Manchester Victoria be pathed to use platform 3, which doesn't necessitate use of the overbridge. (Different matter on the return journey from London to Rochdale, of course).

 

[pokemonsuper9]

This limits it to 4 cramped through platforms with a single over-bridge (no escalators)

There are 3 bridges, but barely anyone uses the other ones, excluding the barrier issue, Victoria could handle a lot of flow.

 

[Cestrian]

If Warrington Bank Quay were to prove extractive, could Hartford or Winsford be alternatives? Offers a catchment without direct London services currently?

 

[Mcr Warrior]

If Warrington Bank Quay were to prove extractive, could Hartford or Winsford be alternatives? Offers a catchment without direct London services currently?

Fair question, although not sure if the platform at Winsford station is particularly all that long. Max 4 cars?

 

[Bletchleyite]

There's no more capacity through stockport so that rules that out, and running into Piccadilly via castlefield is clearly off the table. That puts Manchester Airport as the only viable terminus for such a service as far as reliability and managing passenger-flow is concerned. Heck roughly half of GM's population live south of the city centre. The airport may actually be far more convenient for them for a London-Bound service, rather than schlepping up to Piccadilly only to come back on yourself.

But for one thing - the outrageous price of parking. That being the case Stockport is likely to remain the most popular way of going to London for this (not insubstantial) market.

 

[td97]

a single over-bridge

There are 3 bridges, but barely anyone uses the other ones, excluding the barrier issue, Victoria could handle a lot of flow.

It does seem wasteful for services to generally use the middle of the platforms, which encourages use of the single central footbridge, and also precludes permissive working.
There are some passenger improvement enhancements upcoming at Victoria. Hopefully this could include canopies over the two external footbridges.

 

[yorkie]

Putting Rochdale to London into the National Rail Journey planner as Rochdale to London (all stations) for travel now shows 4 options over the next hour, 1 with a single change in Leeds at 3h49m and 3 via Manchester, all requiring transfer bewteen Vic and Pic at around 3h10m +-.

Interestingly, GC isn't a bad option for Rochdale to London; an easy interchange at either Halifax or Brighouse (assuming the train actually runs, but that's a different topic )

However, GC aren't interested in that sort of market; a search on GC's site directs people to Avanti or LNER, at greater cost:


The forum's site (i.e. Trainsplit) offers results including GC (as well as affordable options on Avanti that bring the cost down, e.g. from £168 to under £61 at "peak" times)

Open access operators could use the same supplier (FastJP) that powers Trainsplit, which could specifically look for journeys including the open access operators, but they choose not to, and instead go for providers that prioritise their rivals services.

It's particularly bizarre given GC are promoting a slower option involving LNER (3h 46min) but won't promote their own service, which is slightly quicker at 3h 41min; it's almost as if open access operators are actively trying to dissade people using their services for anything other than through journeys.

 

[mike57]

It's particularly bizarre given GC are promoting a slower option involving LNER (3h 46min) but won't promote their own service, which is slightly quicker at 3h 41min; it's almost as if open access operators are actively trying to dissade people using their services for anything other than through journeys.

That feel like GC are 'leaving cash on table' (an expression my grandfather used, who was in business).

This relates to another gripe of mine, that journey planners cant be forced to promote an easy change, there are a lot of journeys where there a number of options, for example where 2 services run parallel for a distance like TPE between York and Huddersfield, and the change is always at York. Leeds will probably be easier, and Huddersfield easiest. If its an open ticket you can change at Huddersfield anyway, but if it an advance then you have to change at York. This matters if you have reduced mobility, heavy luggage, or are travelling with small children.

To be honest the whole fares system is an over complicated mess.

 

[JonathanH]

If its an open ticket you can change at Huddersfield anyway, but if it an advance then you have to change at York.

There are certain booking engines available which allow the change point to be specified rather than relying on chance.

 

[SuspectUsual]

This relates to another gripe of mine, that journey planners cant be forced to promote an easy change, there are a lot of journeys where there a number of options, for example where 2 services run parallel for a distance like TPE between York and Huddersfield, and the change is always at York

Off topic here but for @mike57 i asked a similar question and was told most booking sites force the change at the earliest point. So for me travelling Todmorden to York it’s a change at Hebden Bridge travelling east and at Leeds travelling west. Hebden would be better for both - same platform obviously guaranteed and a lot less busy

 

[AlastairFraser]

It does seem wasteful for services to generally use the middle of the platforms, which encourages use of the single central footbridge, and also precludes permissive working.
There are some passenger improvement enhancements upcoming at Victoria. Hopefully this could include canopies over the two external footbridges.

I don't think the issue is the standard of the footbridges at Victoria, it's the location relative to the barriers.
If they built a separate barrier for 1/2, then connected the easternmost footbridge to that, it would help significantly with peak passenger flow leaving the platforms.

 

[Halifaxlad]

Am I missing something really obvious about this idea?

Will it take a different route to the Northern services?

Bradford has 2 trains and hour to Manchester every day of the week. They take between 50 and 56 minutes, and call at 5 stations after Halifax.

Even running non-stop from Bradford to Manchester won't save that much time as the linespeed isn't that high - at a guess you could save around 10 minutes for the 5 stations after Halifax, Halifax itself has a 30mph speed limit through the platforms so the time lost by stopping is minimal.

I'm sorry if I'm missing something obvious but I don't see the point of this service as for someone who uses this line regularly I wouldn't plan my day around a few express services when there is clockface northern service that only takes an extra ten minutes.


That's precisely why it's primarily abstractive and won't be allowed to run.

If you do indeed use the line regularly then you do plan your day around a few express services as these services tend to skip Bramley, Low Moor, Sowerby Bridge, Mytholmroyd, Walsden to name a few!

 

[357]

If you do indeed use the line regularly then you do plan your day around a few express services as these services tend to skip Bramley, Low Moor, Sowerby Bridge, Mytholmroyd, Walsden to name a few!

How much time does it save?

 

[Halifaxlad]

How much time does it save?

Im not concerned with how much time it saves!