70014IronDuke
Established Member
- Joined
- 13 Jun 2015
- Messages
- 3,699
Is there any research into the impact of poor service levels on passenger usage? Or freight, for that matter?
If not, why not? Especially when we have universities offering degrees in transport and the like?
This site has daily reports on serious delays to trains and widespread cancellations. Every time the wind blows a bit worse than usual, there appears to be an awfully good chance of a pantograph snagging the wires somewhere between Peterborough and York.Or there is a fatality somewhere. Or a failure blocking the line with trains waiting hours for relief.
And whenever a suggestion that spare crews/capacity/operating staff or whatever should be on call, the default answer comes that we can't afford to have folks/equipment hanging around for the odd times that they are needed.
Sounds plausible, but how do we know, unless we can estimate the damage to passenger and freight demand caused by disruptions?
Every time a new route opening is discussed, or a current route upgrade is proposed, any suggestion that the new or upgraded route could have value by dint of acting as a diversionary route (or increase the capacity of a current diversionary route) – is dismissed by contributors (who it would appear to have worked in planning) that such considerations do not figure in the calculations of those who evaluate new routes or upgrading of current alternative routes.
But again, how can anyone say this unless we know the hit on demand caused by disruptions?
IIRC, in the early days of Inter-City travel, BR reckoned that 1 mph increase in average speed typically resulted in a 1% increase in passenger demand.(If I've got that wrong, I'm sure someone will quickly correct me.)
Of course, I don't know how provable this was, but surely, in these days of vastly improved train performance monitoring and ticketing sales data, some estimates could be made?
Obviously, to some extent the elasticity of demand will depend on the local circumstances. Long-suffering Southern commuters would appear to be almost impervious to a disastrous performance, the vast majority simply have to travel by train – whereas, say, a sustained poor performance of the Heart of Wales or Cumbrian coast services would probably result in a far sharper (relatively) drop off in demand as people turn to use or buy cars, or use buses or taxis.
But what evidence is there to show this, and map it out mathematically?
We certainly seem to have a vast supply of potential case studies. So, what is the state of research on this vitally important aspect of forecasting demand trends? Anyone know?
If not, why not? Especially when we have universities offering degrees in transport and the like?
This site has daily reports on serious delays to trains and widespread cancellations. Every time the wind blows a bit worse than usual, there appears to be an awfully good chance of a pantograph snagging the wires somewhere between Peterborough and York.Or there is a fatality somewhere. Or a failure blocking the line with trains waiting hours for relief.
And whenever a suggestion that spare crews/capacity/operating staff or whatever should be on call, the default answer comes that we can't afford to have folks/equipment hanging around for the odd times that they are needed.
Sounds plausible, but how do we know, unless we can estimate the damage to passenger and freight demand caused by disruptions?
Every time a new route opening is discussed, or a current route upgrade is proposed, any suggestion that the new or upgraded route could have value by dint of acting as a diversionary route (or increase the capacity of a current diversionary route) – is dismissed by contributors (who it would appear to have worked in planning) that such considerations do not figure in the calculations of those who evaluate new routes or upgrading of current alternative routes.
But again, how can anyone say this unless we know the hit on demand caused by disruptions?
IIRC, in the early days of Inter-City travel, BR reckoned that 1 mph increase in average speed typically resulted in a 1% increase in passenger demand.(If I've got that wrong, I'm sure someone will quickly correct me.)
Of course, I don't know how provable this was, but surely, in these days of vastly improved train performance monitoring and ticketing sales data, some estimates could be made?
Obviously, to some extent the elasticity of demand will depend on the local circumstances. Long-suffering Southern commuters would appear to be almost impervious to a disastrous performance, the vast majority simply have to travel by train – whereas, say, a sustained poor performance of the Heart of Wales or Cumbrian coast services would probably result in a far sharper (relatively) drop off in demand as people turn to use or buy cars, or use buses or taxis.
But what evidence is there to show this, and map it out mathematically?
We certainly seem to have a vast supply of potential case studies. So, what is the state of research on this vitally important aspect of forecasting demand trends? Anyone know?
