Media Coverage of COVID -19

[WelshBluebird]

It seems to me you’re trying to make out that masses of people were still traveling which really wasn’t the case at all.

Not at all. I literally said that, and I quote, "Yes travel was greatly reduced compared to normal but that doesn't mean nobody at all was travelling".
You were the only who literally said that "nobody was travelling".

If people are quarantining for a certain amount of days (usually ten) and isolating from others then how could the virus spread so far and wide?

1. Some people were exempt from the quarantine.
2. Some people just skipped the quarantine totally.
3. Some people broke the quarantine to do things (e.g. go to a bar).

It doesn't take many people in those categories to have the virus to then spread it on and start an outbreak (indeed that is the whole concept of exponential growth - it only takes a small number at the start of an outbreak to end up with a huge number at the end of it).

You can’t say that people were breaking the rules and marching because that never happened last year

In terms of the quarantine in Australia? Some people absolutely were. There's quite a few news articles about it if you want to use Google.
In terms of lockdown in the UK? Some people were breaking the rules (even those in favour of lockdown knew that they wouldn't get 100% compliance with the rules), and as I've explained other people had legitimate reasons to travel too.

Remember this part of the conversation started because you said that the virus wasn't spread by humans travelling.
I am not trying to get into an argument - however you are claiming some very specific things that are just not true ("nobody was travelling during lockdown 1", "Australia had its borders locked shut with nobody in or out", "humans travelling didn't spread the virus"). If you do not believe that the virus was spread by people travelling, then how do you think it spread? (I've asked you a few times now, you haven't actually given an answer).

 

[Bantamzen]

What are you talking about? I'm afraid I'm not following your train of thought.

Australia has largely avoided the long lockdowns and other restrictions we've had to endure by implementing strict border control and quarantine, then short sharp lockdowns to stamp out any local outbreak. As a result, within Australia life has been able to carry on pretty much as normal. That is, until the Delta variant appeared, which is much more transmissible and has got through their defences.

As someone who places a very high value on personal liberty I'd have thought you would have preferred Australia's approach.

If you think what the Aussies have is personal liberty, you haven't been paying attention.

 

[NorthKent1989]

Not at all. I literally said that, and I quote, "Yes travel was greatly reduced compared to normal but that doesn't mean nobody at all was travelling".
You were the only who literally said that "nobody was travelling".

1. Some people were exempt from the quarantine.
2. Some people just skipped the quarantine totally.
3. Some people broke the quarantine to do things (e.g. go to a bar).

It doesn't take many people in those categories to have the virus to then spread it on and start an outbreak (indeed that is the whole concept of exponential growth - it only takes a small number at the start of an outbreak to end up with a huge number at the end of it).

In terms of the quarantine in Australia? Some people absolutely were. There's quite a few news articles about it if you want to use Google.
In terms of lockdown in the UK? Some people were breaking the rules (even those in favour of lockdown knew that they wouldn't get 100% compliance with the rules), and as I've explained other people had legitimate reasons to travel too.

Remember this part of the conversation started because you said that the virus wasn't spread by humans travelling.
I am not trying to get into an argument - however you are claiming some very specific things that are just not true ("nobody was travelling during lockdown 1", "Australia had its borders locked shut with nobody in or out", "humans travelling didn't spread the virus"). If you do not believe that the virus was spread by people travelling, then how do you think it spread? (I've asked you a few times now, you haven't actually given an answer).

I linked in an article from an Australian magazine that literally said that their borders have been tight with very very limited travel with some not even allowed to return home, so you can’t say that what I said wasn’t true

Australia is so isolated even citizens can’t easily enter. For the next year, it’s happy to stay that way

Australia’s COVID border restrictions are some of the world’s harshest, and may remain even as vaccination rates climb.

fortune.com

Australians in India aren’t even allowed to go home so many are stranded, so I’m correct in saying that their borders have been tight and there’s been very few going in or out of that country.

And yes some people were “breaking the rule” but not nearly the amount your trying say were.

What are you talking about? I'm afraid I'm not following your train of thought.

Australia has largely avoided the long lockdowns and other restrictions we've had to endure by implementing strict border control and quarantine, then short sharp lockdowns to stamp out any local outbreak. As a result, within Australia life has been able to carry on pretty much as normal. That is, until the Delta variant appeared, which is much more transmissible and has got through their defences.

As someone who places a very high value on personal liberty I'd have thought you would have preferred Australia's approach.

Australians have not had any personal Liberty, a case only has to be in the single digits and an entire city is put under lockdown

 

[WelshBluebird]

I linked in an article from an Australian magazine that literally said that their borders have been tight with very very limited travel with some not even allowed to return home, so you can’t say that what I said wasn’t true

Australia is so isolated even citizens can’t easily enter. For the next year, it’s happy to stay that way

Australia’s COVID border restrictions are some of the world’s harshest, and may remain even as vaccination rates climb.

fortune.com

Australians in India aren’t even allowed to go home so many are stranded, so I’m correct in saying that their borders have been tight and there’s been very few going in or out of that country.

And yes some people were “breaking the rule” but not nearly the amount your trying say were.

Once again, borders being tight does not mean "nobody going in or out" though.
And I am not saying a large number of people were breaking the rules. Just some. But some is enough to start an outbreak.
And you once again don't answer the question of if you do not believe that the virus was spread by people travelling (which remember is what you claimed), then how do you think it spread?

 

[NorthKent1989]

Once again, borders being tight does not mean "nobody going in or out" though.
And I am not saying a large number of people were breaking the rules. Just some. But some is enough to start an outbreak.
And you once again don't answer the question of if you do not believe that the virus was spread by people travelling (which remember is what you claimed), then how do you think it spread?

Not talking about politicians going in or out of Australia, I’m talking about the ordinary citizen not even allowed to enter back into Australia from India which if you read the article you would know that.

And yet despite this precaution the delta variant from India still got into Australia, I would say that the all dangerous delta variant has another way of spreading

 

[WelshBluebird]

Not talking about politicians going in or out of Australia, I’m talking about the ordinary citizen not even allowed to enter back into Australia from India which if you read the article you would know that.

And yet despite this precaution the delta variant from India still got into Australia, I would say that the all dangerous delta variant has another way of spreading

I will keep asking - if you do not believe that the virus was spread by people travelling (which remember is what you claimed), then how do you think it spread?

 

[NorthKent1989]

I will keep asking - if you do not believe that the virus was spread by people travelling (which remember is what you claimed), then how do you think it spread?

I believe I answered your question just not the way you wanted it to be answered.

Now I’ve answered that question you answer me this, with virtually no travel between India and Australia with citizens not allowed to return from India to Australia how do you think the delta variant got there?

 

[35B]

And do you have any evidence that lockdowns haven’t caused more issues and deaths that were preventable?

Australia has had the harshest of lockdowns, the borders were shut tight, this is factual and yet the delta variant still got in, laugh all you want, I find myself laughing at some of the things you come out with.

Delta got loose in Australia because of one of the holes in Australia's border protocol (limited PPE for the drivers taking inbound passengers from airport to quarantine hotel) combined with one 60-something driver refused vaccination because of worries about blood clots that were a minor risk to under 40s.

 

[NorthKent1989]

Delta got loose in Australia because of one of the holes in Australia's border protocol (limited PPE for the drivers taking inbound passengers from airport to quarantine hotel) combined with one 60-something driver refused vaccination because of worries about blood clots that were a minor risk to under 40s.

From India? and do you have the source for this?

So blood clots are about as minor as as Covid is for under 40s then?

 

[quantinghome]

Not talking about politicians going in or out of Australia, I’m talking about the ordinary citizen not even allowed to enter back into Australia from India which if you read the article you would know that.

And yet despite this precaution the delta variant from India still got into Australia, I would say that the all dangerous delta variant has another way of spreading

Let's put some numbers to this.

Overseas Travel Statistics, Provisional, May 2021 | Australian Bureau of Statistics (abs.gov.au)

Currently over 100,000 arrivals per month,
20,000 per month at the start of the pandemic,
around 2 million in normal times.

So a very large drop but clearly still a significant number travelling to Australia. Once again, this was not difficult to find.

 

[35B]

Australians have not had any personal Liberty, a case only has to be in the single digits and an entire city is put under lockdown

A friend in Australia tells me very different about how life is there, despite the lockdowns. She also tells of what she has been able to do through the Australian summer within the border.

 

[Mcr Warrior]

I will keep asking - if you do not believe that the virus was spread by people travelling (which remember is what you claimed), then how do you think it spread?

Not long to go now before this particular question will have been asked more often than Jeremy Paxman did with his own (oft-quoted) clarificatory question when interviewing Michael Howard back in 1997!

 

[35B]

From India? and do you have the source for this?

So blood clots are about as minor as as Covid is for under 40s then?

As I recall, the reporting was in the Times - I've taken it as established fact for a while.

As for the clotting risk, the risk from vaccination even for those "at risk" from AZ side effect groups has been far less than from Covid. What matters is that he was deterred from taking a vaccine that wouldn't cause him risk, and that this disproportionate fear caused him to act as a vector for a disease outbreak that's caused the current round of lockdowns. Which rather takes us back to the questions of population immunity levels, and the wider consequences of individuals choosing not to take vaccines.

 

[kristiang85]

A friend in Australia tells me very different about how life is there, despite the lockdowns. She also tells of what she has been able to do through the Australian summer within the border.

But you still have a completely inability to make any kind of long term plans as you never know when a lockdown will be triggered - my Aussie mate says planning his wedding has been a stressful nightmare.

And imagine running a pub, not knowing if you will need to lock down at a day's notice and lose all your stock. Or any kind of events or travel business.

 

[MikeWM]

Did anyone ever work out how the crew of the Echizen Maru caught covid?

Fishermen test positive despite spending 35 days at sea and testing negative before they left

Argentinian health officials are scrambling to understand how nearly every crew member of a ship which spent 35 days at sea were found to have contracted coronavirus upon returning to land.

All 61 sailors aboard the trawler, Echizen Maru, tested negative for the virus upon departure from Buenos Aires in late May.

They were then flown to the Ushuaia, a typical jumping-off point for Antarctic voyages nicknamed “the end of the world”, where they were quarantined in a hotel for two weeks before setting sail.

After weeks at sea, some crew members started to display symptoms typical to Covid-19, and the ship returned to port.

All but four aboard the ship tested positive upon their return, local health authorities in the Tierra del Fuego province said on Monday. Two have been hospitalised in Ushuaia Regional Hospital, one of whom is receiving oxygen.

The health officials may have been 'scrambling' at the time, but did they ever find an explanation? I see nothing in the almost 12 months since this story was reported that actually explains what happened here.

(I remembered this given the above discussion about how transmission occurs).

 

[quantinghome]

I can see a number of potential routes of transmission in that scenario.

 

[35B]

But you still have a completely inability to make any kind of long term plans as you never know when a lockdown will be triggered - my Aussie mate says planning his wedding has been a stressful nightmare.

And imagine running a pub, not knowing if you will need to lock down at a day's notice and lose all your stock. Or any kind of events or travel business.

She works in the exhibitions business.

 

[greyman42]

There’s a point at which people need to make a stand, morally, rather than go along with something that isn’t right.

I think the last 16 months have shown us that unfortunately that ship has long sailed.

 

[NorthKent1989]

I can see a number of potential routes of transmission in that scenario.

Like what? It sounds to me that these people took every precaution possible

 

[greyman42]

That fundamentally is not true. Viruses basically only travel thanks to humans (or animals) travelling. To suggest otherwise is simply false.

I remember when the media were reporting that Covid 19 was travelling around on the back of parcels and letters and some people lapped it up.

 

[WelshBluebird]

Did anyone ever work out how the crew of the Echizen Maru caught covid?

Fishermen test positive despite spending 35 days at sea and testing negative before they left


The health officials may have been 'scrambling' at the time, but did they ever find an explanation? I see nothing in the almost 12 months since this story was reported that actually explains what happened here.

(I remembered this given the above discussion about how transmission occurs).

Potential options:

• At least one of them was actually infected initially but tested negative (either due to a false negative or due to it being in the few days where you can be infected but still test negative).
• Someone else on the the flight at the start spread it to them (if there were any that is - but thinking of people like flight crew etc).
• Someone else at the hotel spread it to them (one of the hotel staff for example).
• At least one of them broke the quarantine at the hotel.

And probably a few more I can't think of off the top of my head.
As with the discussions about Australia and the UK lockdowns / quarantine, there are often multiple vectors where a virus may spread even within what initially looks like a fairly solid and locked down plan. It only takes one human link in all of that to pass on the virus.

 

[MikeWM]

Potential options:

Well, yes, all may be possibilities. But were any of those actually found out to be the case? It seems like they were keen to try to find out the answer, but I can't find any further reports on any resolution.

 

[quantinghome]

Well, yes, all may be possibilities. But were any of those actually found out to be the case? It seems like they were keen to try to find out the answer, but I can't find any further reports on any resolution.

Obvious we don't know; if a report was readily available someone would have looked it up and posted a link. But it's generally best to go with the most obvious explanation - someone broke quarantine - rather than suggest a novel transmission vector.

 

[NorthKent1989]

Obvious we don't know; if a report was readily available someone would have looked it up and posted a link. But it's generally best to go with the most obvious explanation - someone broke quarantine - rather than suggest a novel transmission vector.

But the article said they all took precautions, no one broke quarantine and they went with the rules yet some one still got Covid.

You could argue that someone is lying and didn’t take quarantining seriously but why would they?

 

[MikeWM]

Obvious we don't know; if a report was readily available someone would have looked it up and posted a link. But it's generally best to go with the most obvious explanation - someone broke quarantine - rather than suggest a novel transmission vector.

Perhaps so. Though I note also that for example there is this interesting case that I've mentioned before

https://www.cambridge.org/core/jour...te-isolation/1D3A49463583D06CEACE1CCF9C1A25B4

Six of 12 men wintering at an isolated Antarctic base sequentially developed symptoms and signs of a common cold after 17 weeks of complete isolation. Examination of specimens taken from the men in relation to the outbreak has not revealed a causative agent.

It may be an idle thought, but I wonder if we know quite as much about the transmission of viruses as we seem to think we do.

 

[35B]

But the article said they all took precautions, no one broke quarantine and they went with the rules yet some one still got Covid.

You could argue that someone is lying and didn’t take quarantining seriously but why would they?

There are plenty of posts on this forum that suggest opponents to Covid measures might make life hard for contact tracers, for example by leaving gaps in the trail for contact tracing.

Ultimately, it's a human process, and humans are falliable. As @WelshBluebird says, there are opportunities within that chain of events for transmission even with all involved behaving compliantly, especially if you accept the observation from @MikeWM that our knowledge of the transmission of viruses is incomplete.

However, those failures do not support the argument that those measures are useless. Australia and New Zealand have had the ability to run much more normally than we have, with massively reduced death and serious illness. Knowing what I know now, I'd have sooner the UK'd done what Australia and New Zealand did - their challenge is now about how they exit their current status.

 

[NorthKent1989]

There are plenty of posts on this forum that suggest opponents to Covid measures might make life hard for contact tracers, for example by leaving gaps in the trail for contact tracing.

Ultimately, it's a human process, and humans are falliable. As @WelshBluebird says, there are opportunities within that chain of events for transmission even with all involved behaving compliantly, especially if you accept the observation from @MikeWM that our knowledge of the transmission of viruses is incomplete.

However, those failures do not support the argument that those measures are useless. Australia and New Zealand have had the ability to run much more normally than we have, with massively reduced death and serious illness. Knowing what I know now, I'd have sooner the UK'd done what Australia and New Zealand did - their challenge is now about how they exit their current status.

I wouldn’t say Australia and New Zealand did it the best way, because they lock down over the smallest of cases and they are far from back to normal.

We on the other hand are heading for that on July 19th any further infringement on our lives would be laughable at this point.

 

[DustyBin]

Australia and New Zealand have had the ability to run much more normally than we have, with massively reduced death and serious illness. Knowing what I know now, I'd have sooner the UK'd done what Australia and New Zealand did - their challenge is now about how they exit their current status.

We’ve probably had this conversation before, but I don’t see any way we could have adopted the Australia/New Zealand strategy (and I use the word strategy loosely). We’re too close to mainland Europe, both in terms of geography and more importantly trading arrangements. I honestly don’t think it’s feasible for us to cut ourselves off from the world in the way they have.

How they exit the situation I have no idea. Well I do, it requires very high vaccine take up and an acceptance that even then there will be a certain level of attrition, but they don’t seem to be ready for either. I actually think we’re now in a better place than they are, certainly in terms of returning to normality.

I wouldn’t say Australia and New Zealand did it the best way, because they lock down over the smallest of cases and they are far from back to normal.

We on the other hand are heading for that on July 19th any further infringement on our lives would be laughable at this point.

Yes we’ve taken the pain at this point and can move on. Apologies if that sounds rather matter of fact but that’s the reality of coming through a pandemic over which we have little if any control. I genuinely believe any talk of controlling or beating the virus is nonsense; we can tinker with it but ultimately it will do what it “wants” to do.

 

[35B]

I wouldn’t say Australia and New Zealand did it the best way, because they lock down over the smallest of cases and they are far from back to normal.

We on the other hand are heading for that on July 19th any further infringement on our lives would be laughable at this point.

I hope your confidence is justified. I believe it is but there’s a way to go yet

 

[NorthKent1989]

I hope your confidence is justified. I believe it is but there’s a way to go yet

It’s pretty clear that Javid wants an end to further lockdowns and restrictions, unlike his useless, hypocritical, crocodile tears predecessor we have to learn to live with Covid at some point and that time has now come, there is no “there’s a way to go yet” because that could be years from now, and We’ve already sacrificed nearly 2 years already, the time to open up fully is now and to stop living in fear, there’s zero justification in doing another round of restrictions and lockdowns.

Cases will go up, but life shouldn’t be put on hold any longer than what it has, of course the doom mongers at SAGE would have us locked down until Easter 2026.