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Missing submersible near wreck of Titanic

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Iskra

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It can't be that dangerous if the film director James Cameron did it 12 times. As long as you are prepared and somebody is willing to fund all the precautions taken it isn't dangerous. You just have do it with deep sea expedition professionals to lower the risk. http://www.deepseachallenge.com/the-team/james-cameron/
The probability of an accident occurring may be low, but unfortunately at the depths involved the result of even a minor mishap is incredibly likely to be fatal, which is something you need to consider before partaking. Personally, I wouldn’t but each to their own…
 
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The probability of an accident occurring may be low, but unfortunately at the depths involved the result of even a minor mishap is incredibly likely to be fatal, which is something you need to consider before partaking. Personally, I wouldn’t but each to their own…

That basically puts it there with Everest - you probably won't have something go wrong, but if you do rescue is close to impossible.

Another such pursuit is cave diving. A further one, were it commercially viable, would be space travel.

In the end people choose these pursuits knowing the risks.
 

dosxuk

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It can't be that dangerous if the film director James Cameron did it 12 times.
I don't think you can really give him as an example of an "everyman" who just happens to have been to the Titanic a few times. He was the first person to solo dive to the deepest part of the planet, and has apparently been fascinated by shipwrecks since he was a child. He also became very aware of the risks and dangers of working underwater during the filming of The Abyss, which pretty much ran into every problem imaginable.
 

ainsworth74

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Indeed. And then of course the never ending debate about whether the stern really did rise as high before the ship broke in half, as depicted in the film (and in some eyewitness accounts), but which various metallurgists and structural engineers have contradicted.
Absolutely! Looked cool though whatever the truth of the matter! I do think it might be a bit suspect, it's quite an acute angle and a lot of weight to be supported by the spine of the ship including heavy things like engines and boilers as depicted in the film (guess we just need to wait for that time machine to rock up so we can go back and see for ourselves).
Contact was lost one hour and forty-five minutes into the trip. I wonder whether it would have reached the bottom and was caught up in something from which it might just possibly be freed. Or whether a problem appeared during the descent, which is more ominous.
My understanding is it takes around two to two and half hours to reach the seabed. So losing contact after an hour and forty-five suggests that they hadn't gotten to the bottom yet. This is entirely speculative on my part but I can't help but think that some sort of structural failure occurred. If they'd reached the sea bed then getting entangled in something (I believe there have been near misses on other expeditions by other submarines?) might be quite a plausible reason for whatever went wrong. But in the middle of the descent there's not quite as much to go wrong other than the structure itself.
 

AlterEgo

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Apparently a writer, Mike Reiss, who had been on the submersible three times before lost contact on each of those missions - and has said he holds out little hope for the fate of the occupants this time.
 

Bletchleyite

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Absolutely! Looked cool though whatever the truth of the matter! I do think it might be a bit suspect, it's quite an acute angle and a lot of weight to be supported by the spine of the ship including heavy things like engines and boilers as depicted in the film (guess we just need to wait for that time machine to rock up so we can go back and see for ourselves).

My understanding is it takes around two to two and half hours to reach the seabed. So losing contact after an hour and forty-five suggests that they hadn't gotten to the bottom yet. This is entirely speculative on my part but I can't help but think that some sort of structural failure occurred. If they'd reached the sea bed then getting entangled in something (I believe there have been near misses on other expeditions by other submarines?) might be quite a plausible reason for whatever went wrong. But in the middle of the descent there's not quite as much to go wrong other than the structure itself.

Structural failure doesn't seem entirely unlikely - it may have looked OK before, but an invisible crack may have been developing with each compression and decompression. This has been the cause of many plane crashes and near-crashes over the years.
 

birchesgreen

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Off the shelf components are quite common, there is no need to keep reinventing the wheel if there is already some tech available that will do the job and it's features/foibles are well documented. Research aircraft, for example, often re-use parts from other production planes.
 

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Structural failure doesn't seem entirely unlikely - it may have looked OK before, but an invisible crack may have been developing with each compression and decompression. This has been the cause of many plane crashes and near-crashes over the years.
According to OceanGate’s website, the submersible weighs 10.4 tonnes and is made of carbon fibre and titanium. It claims the Titan is equipped with a real-time health monitoring system to monitor the effect of pressure on the hull, giving the crew enough time to return to the surface in the event of any problems. The Titan is the only crewed submersible in the world equipped with such a system, it said.

David Pogue, a correspondent with CBS News who made a brief trip on the submersible in 2022, reported at the time that it was controlled using a video game controller and its entrance hatch could be opened and closed from the outside only.
The rest of the article is quoting different people praying they come out alive, although this is seeming less and less likely.
 

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This video popped up in my YouTube feed:
It's not a channel I'm familiar with, but if accurate it doesn't sound good for those on board. Key points being the lack of emergency oxygen supply in the event of things going wrong, and the inability to vent any toxic gases which may accumulate within the submersible. Meanwhile as of a few hours ago the US Coastguard are (at least publicly) slightly more optimistic, suggesting that the occupants have around 40 hours of oxygen remaining... that sounds a lot considering the number of occupants on board and the relatively small size of the hull. My suspicion though is that the submersible has suffered some sort of catastrophic failure.
 

Ediswan

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It's not a channel I'm familiar with, but if accurate it doesn't sound good for those on board. Key points being the lack of emergency oxygen supply in the event of things going wrong, and the inability to vent any toxic gases which may accumulate within the submersible.
The complaint is that he has not seen any evidence of oxygen masks for use in the event of a fire. Much the same about venting. The whole video is full of 'ifs' which then get treated as if they were facts. I suspect he has misunderstood the Apollo 1 accident.
 

Ladder23

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It really does intrigue me how we have such limited, if any resources available for deep rescues and searches like this, in a time where space is being explored we struggle to explore our own seas.

I do hope something can come of this, though sea incidents like this are rare, there will no doubt be more in the future..
 

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As rare as they are, submersible/submarine accidents like this scare the living hell out of me. The Kursk, USS Thresher & Scorpion are among the most nightmarish sinkings I can think of (the losses of the Titanic herself, MS München, SS Edmund Fitzgerald & MV Derbyshire also keep me up at night if I think about them too much).

I would like to say I'm optimistic about them being found and rescued (putting the ethical/moral debate of diving to the Titanic aside), but that optimism has faded with the time that's passed.
 

Iskra

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It really does intrigue me how we have such limited, if any resources available for deep rescues and searches like this, in a time where space is being explored we struggle to explore our own seas.

I do hope something can come of this, though sea incidents like this are rare, there will no doubt be more in the future..
It would be kind if ironic if a failed dive on the Titanic lead to a load if safety improvements in the deep sea submersible industry, after the original ship did the same for ocean liners.

Personally, if I was a billionaire and was descending in such a vessel- I’d have paid the relatively small and easily affordable amount to rent a properly equipped rescue vessel to be at the site on the surface for the duration of the dive.

- - -

Apparently, the US authorities have turned down the services of a Jersey based submersible that can dive to the required depth and has a deep sea winch (not sure if that’s installed on a mother ship).


But even if they can get something to the site, it’s still looking for a needle in a haystack in such a dark place, and that’s if an implosion hasn’t already occurred.
 
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pdeaves

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Apparently, the US authorities have turned down the services of a Jersey based submersible that can dive to the required depth
I don't get this. 'Hey, we can help'; 'Nah, thanks all the same'. Why? As a concept it's no real difference to rescuing those South American miners or the children trapped in a cave, the world pulling together to help where there's a need.
 

Iskra

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I don't get this. 'Hey, we can help'; 'Nah, thanks all the same'. Why? As a concept it's no real difference to rescuing those South American miners or the children trapped in a cave, the world pulling together to help where there's a need.
Time, I imagine.

It would have to be loaded onto an aircraft, flown across the Atlantic. Loaded on to a suitable mother ship (assuming one is nearby and they can’t be that common). That ship would then need to sail to the site and then it would need to descend, find a needle in a very dark haystack and deploy a winch, by which point the window of opportunity would be closing or if not closed.
 

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This video popped up in my YouTube feed:
It's not a channel I'm familiar with, but if accurate it doesn't sound good for those on board. Key points being the lack of emergency oxygen supply in the event of things going wrong, and the inability to vent any toxic gases which may accumulate within the submersible. Meanwhile as of a few hours ago the US Coastguard are (at least publicly) slightly more optimistic, suggesting that the occupants have around 40 hours of oxygen remaining... that sounds a lot considering the number of occupants on board and the relatively small size of the hull. My suspicion though is that the submersible has suffered some sort of catastrophic failure.

That’s a pretty thorough debunking of the design from someone who appears to know their onions.

The mind boggles. No joke about the PS3 controller, a sub that looks like it was built on Scrap Heap Challenge, an inexperienced design team selected because the owner didn’t want 50yo white men doing it, and no evidence of proper testing of other safety features (or even those features being present) etc. It doesn’t exactly paint a picture of professionalism.

It really does intrigue me how we have such limited, if any resources available for deep rescues and searches like this, in a time where space is being explored we struggle to explore our own seas.

I do hope something can come of this, though sea incidents like this are rare, there will no doubt be more in the future..

Because why would “we” spend money (especially taxpayers’ money) creating rescue vehicles for the extremely deep ocean which hardly anyone visits, and where there’s no reason for anyone to go, other than for adventurers? Most scientific exploration can surely be much more easily and effectively done using unmanned craft, which don’t have to be engineered to sustain human life.
 

kristiang85

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Apparently overnight there has been sounds heard, which could be "tapping".

I'm now convinced a faster than expected current has got them stuck under the wreck at the bottom.
 

Iskra

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Apparently overnight there has been sounds heard, which could be "tapping".

I'm now convinced a faster than expected current has got them stuck under the wreck at the bottom.

Banging sounds might not mean all that much, there’s a lot of metal down there that presumably gets knocked about a bit by the currents.

However, I do think the sound of an implosion would have been detected, so the absence of that being detected suggests they still could be alive. A couple of years ago an Argentine sub exploded in the South Atlantic and the sound of that was picked up by several military vessels some distance away.
 

ainsworth74

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However, I do think the sound of an implosion would have been detected, so the absence of that being detected suggests they still could be alive. A couple of years ago an Argentine sub exploded in the South Atlantic and the sound of that was picked up by several military vessels some distance away.
The size and so volume of that Argentine sub was considerably more however (67m long versus 6m long for instance). So the implosion of that submarine will have involved a lot more energy and consequently a much louder and more detectable sound signature. It was detected in the end by monitoring stations used to look for nuclear tests (which gives an indication of the amount of energy involved). I'm not ruling it out but the implosion of the Titan seems much less likely to have had enough energy to register.
 

Iskra

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The size and so volume of that Argentine sub was considerably more however (67m long versus 6m long for instance). So the implosion of that submarine will have involved a lot more energy and consequently a much louder and more detectable sound signature. It was detected in the end by monitoring stations used to look for nuclear tests (which gives an indication of the amount of energy involved). I'm not ruling it out but the implosion of the Titan seems much less likely to have had enough energy to register.
Yes, that is all very true. Also the Argentine sub would have been carrying explosives too, which might have increased the sound.

There are underwater acoustic listening devices in the North Atlantic (and other seas) though as a left over from the cold war, plus no doubt some military submarines, aircraft and ships routinely patrolling the North Atlantic or training there- I appreciate it’s a big space though, but I believe such underwater sounds are quite discernible.
 

ainsworth74

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There are underwater acoustic listening devices in the North Atlantic (and other seas) though as a left over from the cold war, plus no doubt some military submarines, aircraft and ships routinely patrolling the North Atlantic or training there- I appreciate it’s a big space though, but I believe such underwater sounds are quite discernible.
Sure, SOSUS still exists in a diminished form (there aren't hundreds of Soviet submarines to worry about anymore!) and some of the old military hydrophones have been repurposed for civilian research instead but it really is a big big ocean and a noisy one to boot. Modern military sonars are incredibly sensitive (allegedly you can hear the sound of a helicopter hovering above the ocean, detect merchant ships hundreds of miles away, etc) but I really don't think it's particularly unlikely that the implosion could be missed in all that background noise especially when its not the sort of noise one is typically keeping an eye out for. Going back to the Argentine submarine. It was only realised that the implosion had been picked up when they went back and checked the tapes around the time that contact was lost because otherwise it just didn't register as significant. And that was a much more energetic implosion!

Certainly not ruling out that the submarine is intact on the ocean bed, trapped in the wreckage or a fishing net or similar. But equally I'm just not convinced that if it imploded that that would necessarily have been detected.
 

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There is also the possibility of a leak that was fast enough to knock out the communications and systems before the operator had realised. There would be no implosion and the submersible would fill and sink to the bottom.

There are 24 hours of air left, if estimates were correct and those on board have kept calm and not used it up in panic or activity. If the submersible is intact, it strikes me as unlikely that it can be brought to the surface quickly enough unless it is something simple like it being caught on a piece of wreckage or a net which a robot could easily cut or shift.

I think we are already moving into the, “Well, it is still possible…” stage, but there are plenty of variables. The blame and ‘If only they had asked me’ game seems already to have started.
 

Iskra

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Sure, SOSUS still exists in a diminished form (there aren't hundreds of Soviet submarines to worry about anymore!) and some of the old military hydrophones have been repurposed for civilian research instead but it really is a big big ocean and a noisy one to boot. Modern military sonars are incredibly sensitive (allegedly you can hear the sound of a helicopter hovering above the ocean, detect merchant ships hundreds of miles away, etc) but I really don't think it's particularly unlikely that the implosion could be missed in all that background noise especially when its not the sort of noise one is typically keeping an eye out for. Going back to the Argentine submarine. It was only realised that the implosion had been picked up when they went back and checked the tapes around the time that contact was lost because otherwise it just didn't register as significant. And that was a much more energetic implosion!

Certainly not ruling out that the submarine is intact on the ocean bed, trapped in the wreckage or a fishing net or similar. But equally I'm just not convinced that if it imploded that that would necessarily have been detected.
Yes, I can understand that line of thought, although I personally think a sonar operator listening in and hearing whale, engine, whale, engine etc then getting an implosion might stand out to them as something a little different. But that’s assuming anyone was in the right place at the right time, with the knowledge that a submersible had gone missing at that same moment in the first place.

There is also the possibility of a leak that was fast enough to knock out the communications and systems before the operator had realised. There would be no implosion and the submersible would fill and sink to the bottom.

There are 24 hours of air left, if estimates were correct and those on board have kept calm and not used it up in panic or activity. If the submersible is intact, it strikes me as unlikely that it can be brought to the surface.

I think we are already moving into the, “Well, it is still possible…” stage, but there are plenty of variables. The blame and ‘If only they had asked me’ game seems already to have started.

To get it to the surface now you’d need to have found the needle in a dark haystack with an ROV, have a ship with a deep sea winch that can lift the required weight on hand, and have another ROV with claws that can untrap the submersible and attach a hook. The logistics of having all those things, their support equipment and people to operate them in a place as remote as this, are vast.
 

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I think that SOSUS largely works on automatic listening: it is programmed to alert the operators if any one of the sounds in the sound bank appears or for anything particularly unusual. However, there must be a minimum level of volume, weirdness or whatever as otherwise it would constantly be crying wolf. If it sounded the alarm every time a penguin broke wind more powerfully than usual the system would be overloaded. It is possible that the sound from the submersible fell below this limit. I also have a feeling that this area is one where SOSUS is a bit thinner on the ground than elsewhere, such as the UK-Iceland-Greenland Gap. (I did read up about SOSUS a lot once, but that was quite a few years ago.)
 

Iskra

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I think that SOSUS largely works on automatic listening: it is programmed to alert the operators if any one of the sounds in the sound bank appears or for anything particularly unusual. However, there must be a minimum level of volume, weirdness or whatever as otherwise it would constantly be crying wolf. If it sounded the alarm every time a penguin broke wind more powerfully than usual the system would be overloaded. It is possible that the sound from the submersible fell below this limit. I also have a feeling that this area is one where SOSUS is a bit thinner on the ground than elsewhere, such as the UK-Iceland-Greenland Gap. (I did read up about SOSUS a lot once, but that was quite a few years ago.)
Automated listening would make sense, as when the US Navy listening post at RAF St Mawgan (Newquay Airport) was closed down in the late 00’s, only 22 positions were lost. If it was active listening you’d need many more operators and admin staff than that for 24/7 coverage.

In terms of hearing an implosion, the wreck of the Titanic lies on a shelf within a trench seemingly which may further disrupt or distort any sound emissions.
 

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Apparently tapping has been heard and has been interpreted as signs of life.
 
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