More Delay for HS2, and how should we proceed?

[stuu]

From what I've seen someone else say, the problem isn't OOC, but Crossrail, which doesn't have enough capacity to take all those people into the city.

Yes it would. There would be 10tph at most, which is 6000 people. The 12 tph EL starters from OOC have a theoretical capacity of 18,000 people

 

[MattRat]

Yes it would. There would be 10tph at most, which is 6000 people. The 12 tph EL starters from OOC have a theoretical capacity of 18,000 people

It's already at capacity though. It's more like having to deal with 24,000 people, so would need upgrades (as crazy as that sounds).

 

[JonathanH]

It's already at capacity though.

The Elizabeth Line is not at capacity, in any sense of the word. The times of day at which it is well loaded may not necessarily coincide with when HS2 would be expected to be busiest.

 

[Nottingham59]

There would be 10tph at most, which is 6000 people.

The HS2 trains could be doubled up to 400m, so theoretically it could be 1100 passengers per train. (Assuming that HS2 is reservation only and places are limited to the number of seats.) Still well within the capacity of the EL starters, of course. And you'd expect the peak long distance arrivals to be around 9 to 10am, a bit after the local commuting peak on the EL

 

[stuu]

The HS2 trains could be doubled up to 400m, so theoretically it could be 1100 passengers per train. (Assuming that HS2 is reservation only and places are limited to the number of seats.) Still well within the capacity of the EL starters, of course. And you'd expect the peak long distance arrivals to be around 9 to 10am, a bit after the local commuting peak on the EL

Only the Birmingham ones though, so maybe a couple of peak trains might be doubled.

All this nonsense will mean far fewer trains are needed as well, there must be some interesting discussions going on with Hitachi

 

[tomuk]

Only the Birmingham ones though, so maybe a couple of peak trains might be doubled.

All this nonsense will mean far fewer trains are needed as well, there must be some interesting discussions going on with Hitachi

It is a JV with Alstom the HS2 sets are Bombardier Zefiro equipment fitted to a Hitachi built bodyshell.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

It is a JV with Alstom the HS2 sets are Bombardier Zefiro equipment fitted to a Hitachi built bodyshell.

Alstom are doing the bogies - nothing more.
I'd expect most of the other high-spec stuff will be Japanese, like the IEP.

 

[Benjwri]

Still well within the capacity of the EL starters, of course.

Although you have to remember OOC will likely be where everyone changes from the GWML as well.

 

[tomuk]

Alstom are doing the bogies - nothing more.
I'd expect most of the other high-spec stuff will be Japanese, like the IEP.

Alstom are building the bogies at Crewe and final assembly at Derby with propulsion equipment from Hennigsdorf in Germany. Hitachi are only making the bodyshells at Newton Aycliffe. They aren't Japanese.

 

[IndianPacific]

Not involved in HS2 so all speculation...

The HS2 trains could be doubled up to 400m, so theoretically it could be 1100 passengers per train. (Assuming that HS2 is reservation only and places are limited to the number of seats.) Still well within the capacity of the EL starters, of course. And you'd expect the peak long distance arrivals to be around 9 to 10am, a bit after the local commuting peak on the EL

The concern might not just be about numbers of seats on the trains, but keeping the concourse & platforms flowing with a larger than expected number of people transferring (both on & off the EL platforms). Although I'd imagine not terminating at Euston would probably have an impact on passenger numbers anyway.

Only the Birmingham ones though, so maybe a couple of peak trains might be doubled.

All this nonsense will mean far fewer trains are needed as well, there must be some interesting discussions going on with Hitachi

I was under the impression there was a 400m "Scotland" service that would split somewhere in Network Rail land to 2 x 200m for Glasgow & Edinburgh, so could be more than that. But yeah, I can't help be pessimistic about passenger numbers during this early phase, so probably not a major issue.

 

[Benjwri]

The concern might not just be about numbers of seats on the trains, but keeping the concourse & platforms flowing with a larger than expected number of people transferring (both on & off the EL platforms). Although I'd imagine not terminating at Euston would probably have an impact on passenger numbers anyway.

To be fair I would imagine the design is for quite a lot of people, and obviously it will have been designed so as many can evacuate in a fire.

Old Oak Common will be the quickest way to a range of destinations even when the section to Euston opens, so I imagine it’s designed for a far few people.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Alstom are building the bogies at Crewe and final assembly at Derby with propulsion equipment from Hennigsdorf in Germany. Hitachi are only making the bodyshells at Newton Aycliffe. They aren't Japanese.

What I don't understand about this contract is that, post award of the HS2 order, the Bombardier V300 assets were acquired by Hitachi and are not part of the modern Alstom.
So I don't know what that does to the balance of work in the contract (was 50/50) or the allocation of work to build HS2 trains.
Hitachi are on record as saying it will be a "brand new train" and not therefore a clone of the FR1000.
On top of that, the cutbacks on HS2 infrastructure mean that 54 trains will not be required, certainly not at first.

 

[Energy]

What I don't understand about this contract is that, post award of the HS2 order, the Bombardier V300 assets were acquired by Hitachi and are not part of the modern Alstom.
So I don't know what that does to the balance of work in the contract (was 50/50) or the allocation of work to build HS2 trains.
Hitachi are on record as saying it will be a "brand new train" and not therefore a clone of the FR1000.

Correct, the HS2 trains will be pretty different to the Italian ones, they need a new body shell and electrical equipment is Alstom not Bombardier. Alstom have a lot of high speed experience so I can't see any problems.

On top of that, the cutbacks on HS2 infrastructure mean that 54 trains will not be required, certainly not at first.

The majority of Avanti trains will still go via HS2 even if its phase 1 only. Phase 1 only does at least solve the capacity problem from Birmingham southwards, though running to Crewe would help even more.

 

[IndianPacific]

What I don't understand about this contract is that, post award of the HS2 order, the Bombardier V300 assets were acquired by Hitachi and are not part of the modern Alstom.
So I don't know what that does to the balance of work in the contract (was 50/50) or the allocation of work to build HS2 trains.
Hitachi are on record as saying it will be a "brand new train" and not therefore a clone of the FR1000.
On top of that, the cutbacks on HS2 infrastructure mean that 54 trains will not be required, certainly not at first.

Yeah, would be interesting to see how the JV politics are playing out. It's hard to get much detail from what is released publicly, but they did make a big deal about using both Newton Aycliffe and Derby factories, there is a bit of a summary in this press release.

Total speculation, but as its the same TOC as the WCML and the 390's will be 30 years old by the time HS2 really tries to open anything, they probably won't be too unhappy at having some spare trains.

 

[tomuk]

Yeah, would be interesting to see how the JV politics are playing out. It's hard to get much detail from what is released publicly, but they did make a big deal about using both Newton Aycliffe and Derby factories, there is a bit of a summary in this press release.

Total speculation, but as its the same TOC as the WCML and the 390's will be 30 years old by the time HS2 really tries to open anything, they probably won't be too unhappy at having some spare trains.

The press release is the usual PR puff emphasising the UK elements of the build, the quote from Hitachi describing it as a "British-built bullet train" isn't based in reality it isn't Japanese based at all, it is just a re-run update of the Ansaldo Bombardier FR1000 to match HS2 requirements transplanted to the UK. Hitachi are doing the bodies and Alstom everything else.

 

[Class 170101]

A major issue at Euston is the protected sight lines, which means that over site development is limited in height and location.

I guess that also affects the value of Euston because of the (limited) development that can be built over Euston. However what sight lines are we talking about here? St Pauls Cathedral or something else?

 

[stuu]

I guess that also affects the value of Euston because of the (limited) development that can be built over Euston. However what sight lines are we talking about here? St Pauls Cathedral or something else?

Both St Paul's and the Palace of Westminster. The sightlines to both pass over Euston, from Primrose Hill/Hampstead Heath. Wikipedia has a map

 

[tomuk]

I guess that also affects the value of Euston because of the (limited) development that can be built over Euston. However what sight lines are we talking about here? St Pauls Cathedral or something else?

Primrose Hill to St Pauls

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

The full debate makes interesting reading in Hansard (14 Mar 2023 at 12:42pm)

https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2023-03-14/debates/12BE7356-3FDA-4474-8D0A-C0F3EC649E36/HS2RevisedTimetableAndBudget#

Merriman didn't take long to become an expert at avoiding the question very disappointing given the good work he did as chair of Transport Select Committee

 

[matacaster]

Bearing in mind that prior to crossrail opening everyone wanting to travel to crossrail stations was accommodated on tube (albeit overcrowded) to it's difficult to accept that many of those who transferred to crossrail could be hmm persuaded to be told to go back to the tube. God, Londoners are so entitled.

 

[Killingworth]

Bearing in mind that prior to crossrail opening everyone wanting to travel to crossrail stations was accommodated on tube (albeit overcrowded) to it's difficult to accept that many of those who transferred to crossrail could be hmm persuaded to be told to go back to the tube. God, Londoners are so entitled.

Before the M25 opened I recall happy days driving from Yorkshire through London to Surrey. You just did because there wasn't a real road alternative. Parts of the original M25 were only 2 lane. The M25 created it's own increasing demand as more travelled around London. Crossrail is now doing the same for London's railways.

The M1 was an early victim of its own success, as have been most other motorways. If we'd just got on and completed HS1 more quickly (it took for ever) and now HS2 rail might stand a better chance of being the preferred way to travel longer distances.

Earlier today I was prompted to look at the Strategic Rail Authority's 2002 Strategic Plan - The way forward for Britain’s railway. It's worth a read if only for nostalgic insights into how we were.

My interest was a piece of infrastructure not more than 500 metres from where I sit. The way forward says a second platform and footbridge should be installed in 2003-4. Not quite. 2023-4, yes. It speaks of reopening the Northumberland and Leamside lines. The first will happen, the second might,eventually. 20 years ago they'd never have believed how difficult it would be for these relatively simple projects to happen.

 

[snowball]

Merriman didn't take long to become an expert at avoiding the question very disappointing given the good work he did as chair of Transport Select Committee

As I've said in another thread, I suspect he was limited in what he could say because he might be overruled by the Transport Secretary or the Treasury. I suspect he had not yet received clarity from them on what is going on between the delta junction and Handsacre.

 

[stuu]

TfL say they need to procure more Elizabeth Line trains to support OOC, with Euston not opening until the 2040s

Annual budget for 2023/24 shows TfL set to deliver operating surplus

PN-034 Despite the pandemic decimating TfL's income and recent economic pressures, TfL’s annual budget for 2023/24 shows the organisation can now fully cover operational costs while investing in new bus services, Tube improvements and walking and cycling schemes across the city and outer London...

tfl-newsroom.prgloo.com

Given the recent announcement around the delays to High Speed 2 terminating at Euston station, TfL also needs to begin procurement for additional Elizabeth line trains. These are needed to provide extra capacity once the new Old Oak Common station opens and High Speed 2 services begin in the early 2030s.

Without them, there is likely to be insufficient capacity on the Elizabeth line for those looking to travel on High Speed 2, as they will need to use the Elizabeth line to travel to and from Central London until HS2 is extended to Euston station in the 2040s.

Confirmation of government funding to cover the additional rolling stock is needed now to ensure that TfL can begin the procurement before manufacturing production lines at Alstom’s factory in Derbyshire are demobilised.

Failing to do so would mean delays and higher costs to remobilise the workforce, source materials and ensure the additional trains are ready to enter service.

 

[Fazaar1889]

TfL say they need to procure more Elizabeth Line trains to support OOC, with Euston not opening until the 2040s

Annual budget for 2023/24 shows TfL set to deliver operating surplus

PN-034 Despite the pandemic decimating TfL's income and recent economic pressures, TfL’s annual budget for 2023/24 shows the organisation can now fully cover operational costs while investing in new bus services, Tube improvements and walking and cycling schemes across the city and outer London...

tfl-newsroom.prgloo.com

lmao omds, I wanna rip my hair out

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

TfL say they need to procure more Elizabeth Line trains to support OOC, with Euston not opening until the 2040s

Annual budget for 2023/24 shows TfL set to deliver operating surplus

PN-034 Despite the pandemic decimating TfL's income and recent economic pressures, TfL’s annual budget for 2023/24 shows the organisation can now fully cover operational costs while investing in new bus services, Tube improvements and walking and cycling schemes across the city and outer London...

tfl-newsroom.prgloo.com

Surely lengthening the existing train fleet should be the first option

 

[stuu]

Surely lengthening the existing train fleet should be the first option

There would need to be some tricky platform extensions, also the stabling - are the sidings at OOC and elsewhere 11 cars long?

 

[JonathanH]

Surely lengthening the existing train fleet should be the first option

Is this a capacity issue, or a not having enough trains to extend them all to Old Oak Common issue?

 

[Chris125]

AIUI the plan was always to extend Paddington terminators to OOC, so any need for extra trains to do this hasn't been changed by recent events.

 

[Meerkat]

There would need to be some tricky platform extensions, also the stabling - are the sidings at OOC and elsewhere 11 cars long?

I thought it was all built for future expansion to 11 car (poss excepting platform doors) but that must just be the underground stations as aerial views suggest OOC stabling sidings can only take 9 with little space for expansion!

 

[Benjwri]

I thought it was all built for future expansion to 11 car (poss excepting platform doors) but that must just be the underground stations as aerial views suggest OOC stabling sidings can only take 9 with little space for expansion!

The underground stations were, the rest wasn't. Looking at it would an expansion of OOC even be possible? It looks like there are new high rise buildings right at the end of the stabling, and there isn't space for an extension to 11 cars.