More Delay for HS2, and how should we proceed?

[busesrusuk]

Page 44 of the report states length of motorway network. For the UK it has 3,380km in 1995 and 3,838 in 2020.

Curious to know where those 500km are - assume its primarily conversion of the A74 and A1 to Motorway status. I cant think of any brand new lengthy Motorway in recent years...

 

[zwk500]

Curious to know where those 500km are - assume its primarily conversion of the A74 and A1 to Motorway status. I cant think of any brand new lengthy Motorway in recent years...

Chronology Maps | Roads.org.uk

Roads.org.uk is the home of roads in the UK - from road project updates to maps of every motorway and expressway and detailed articles exploring the history of the network. It's the essential guide to the highways of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

www.roads.org.uk

 

[Merle Haggard]

Depends if smart motorways are "real" widening.

Well, having spent 10 years negotiating M1 J15 to J19 (widening, junction J15, J15a, started with J19 remodelling) and still going on I can say from experience it might not have been real widening but it must have cost a lot - not only in all the construction work but also the cost of disruption, congestion and delay (speed limits) to users. Before that, it was a similar story J14 to the M25 for years.

 

[stuu]

Curious to know where those 500km are - assume its primarily conversion of the A74 and A1 to Motorway status. I cant think of any brand new lengthy Motorway in recent years...

The M6 Toll was the last significant actual greenfield motorway opened... in 2002

 

[busesrusuk]

Chronology Maps | Roads.org.uk

Roads.org.uk is the home of roads in the UK - from road project updates to maps of every motorway and expressway and detailed articles exploring the history of the network. It's the essential guide to the highways of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

www.roads.org.uk

Thanks - really interesting. Forgot about the M6 Toll!

 

[Mikey C]

Page 44 of the report states length of motorway network. For the UK it has 3,380km in 1995 and 3,838 in 2020.

Just comparing the increase in the length of Motorway to the length of railway track is a pretty poor comparison anyway.

A massive sum has been spent on upgrading the Thameslink core for example, with minimal increases in track length. Indeed losing Farringdon to Moorgate probably means a net decrease!

The GWR section of the Elizabeth Line now has 9 car electric trains replacing infrequent pokey DMUs. All on the same track.

 

[JamesT]

Just comparing the increase in the length of Motorway to the length of railway track is a pretty poor comparison anyway.

A massive sum has been spent on upgrading the Thameslink core for example, with minimal increases in track length. Indeed losing Farringdon to Moorgate probably means a net decrease!

The GWR section of the Elizabeth Line now has 9 car electric trains replacing infrequent pokey DMUs. All on the same track.

Another part of the report compared how much had been spent on investment on the two. The UK was in a somewhat select group having spent more on railways over the period.

 

[The Ham]

On the first point you still aren't recognising that oil and gas are needed to produce the chemicals that modern life relies upon, as well as being used as fuels. Actually north sea oil is more suited to chemical production rather than fuel.

On the second point, that's risk for the oil and gas companies, which are private companies to bear. If the well is a duster then they move on to the next one. That not an argument against allowing exploration and production licences to be granted.

Maybe you missed my first paragraph (as you didn't quote it):

I was saying that there's not necessarily a strong link between oil extraction and other oil uses given how much oil we currently burn.

Basically I was saying that whist we certainly do use oil for other purposes, given the account of it we burn we may not need to extract as much as we do to produce all the other things we use oil for.

On the second point, yes the oil/gas companies are private and it'll be up to them if they'll apply for the licences. The point I was making was that of they're not offered it may not make that much of a difference, and it certainly won't make any difference for a few years yet (with new oil/gas production being over 5 years away).

By which time there'll be a few more years in New houses but having gas boilers intake, a few more years of houses getting better insulation, a few more years of industry moving away from gas, a few more years of declining ICE vehicle sales, a few more years of more renewables being built/installed and the like.

Whilst it could reduce our need to import oil and gas, it does follow rather rapidly on the last set of license (2023) bearing in mind the previous set were issued in 2019. Even then in the last set one of the mayor players opted not to bid for any.

 

[Dan G]

A mild plea that maybe we could keep this thread to being about potential delays to HS2?!

 

[fishwomp]

There's an FT article about inflation impact on HS2 this morning.

At the heart of Sunak’s dilemma is a question that has always dogged HS2: would the tens of billions of pounds of future spending be better spent on smaller capital projects — for example electric car charging infrastructure?

Not quite the trade-off that many here would have in mind. Feels like a drip drip of scene setting ahead of government decision.

 

[mike57]

I get the feeling that HS2 only survived by the skin of its teeth last year, and I think if there was an easy way to kill it off the Government would have done so, as it is they going to cut it back to the bare minimum. Todays inflation figures may help the cause slightly, but I think the government see it as an albatross around their neck. Its too far advanced to abandon so my guess is we will get Birmingham - OOC with just about every other part of it 'postponed/delayed'

Would a different incoming government change or reverse this, probably not, they might like to, but the financial reality will probably mean that apart from Euston, which seems fairly crucial to me, the rest of it will remain firmly in the tomorrow pile, they may pay lip service, but that will be about all.

Its an unfortunate situation which to some degree has been shaped by event outside UK control.

I think that the main take away is that cost control and budgeting has to improve on major infrastructure projects, we have seen it time and time again, Crossrail, GWR electrification, to name two. Unless this happens future governments are going to very wary of these sort of projects as they end up being political banana skins.

I would also question why we went for a 400km/hr solution, other countries with far better developed high speed rail networks seem to have settled on 300-320km/hr, even China where the distances are huge compared to the UK seem to have settled on possible 350km/hr in the future but are sticking with 320km/hr currently.

My own view: If the original concept had been delivered (i.e. East and West legs, to Leeds and Manchester) it could have been a game changer, based on what is likely to be delivereds it just feels like a previous pm's vanity project, and I am not sure that investment v benefit is positive.

 

[Roast Veg]

I would also question why we went for a 400km/hr solution, other countries with far better developed high speed rail networks seem to have settled on 300-320km/hr, even China where the distances are huge compared to the UK seem to have settled on possible 350km/hr in the future but are sticking with 320km/hr currently.

This is not the reason that HS2 has suffered any cost control issues.

 

[stuu]

I would also question why we went for a 400km/hr solution, other countries with far better developed high speed rail networks seem to have settled on 300-320km/hr, even China where the distances are huge compared to the UK seem to have settled on possible 350km/hr in the future but are sticking with 320km/hr currently.

The trains won't run that fast, the alignment is suitable if it is ever needed, that is all

 

[matacaster]

How many extra freight paths is HS2 going to free up on WCML? I think that freight should be prioritised on wcml regardless.

 

[jfowkes]

How many extra freight paths is HS2 going to free up on WCML? I think that freight should be prioritised on wcml regardless.

According to HS2: https://www.hs2.org.uk/why/capacity/

"HS2 could provide space for an extra 20 WCML freight paths"

This is of course just one estimate/projection/guess.

 

[fishwomp]

This is not the reason that HS2 has suffered any cost control issues.

If anything - it (400km/h speed) has actually been helpful for cost control! As the cost has risen, it's given the project a lever to dial down on the spec to save money.

 

[snowball]

If anything - it (400km/h speed) has actually been helpful for cost control! As the cost has risen, it's given the project a lever to dial down on the spec to save money.

Can you cite any examples where this has happened?

 

[camflyer]

Sunak just refused to comment on HS2 at his statement on Net Zero.

 

[fishwomp]

Can you cite any examples where this has happened?

Down-spec'ing of Euston.
Rolling stock with lower speed: The Guardian .. Feb'23

Ministers are planning on cutting HS2 services and train speeds in an attempt to drive down the cost of the heavily delayed project, it has been reported. [..]

HS2, which the government greenlit in 2012, was initially designed to run services at up to 400 km/h (248 mph). This was reduced to an average of 330 km/h (205 mph) and maximum of 360 km/h once contracts to build new trains were awarded. [..]

and of course, getting a Old Oak - Birmingham line for the price of a Y network to Leeds and Manchester

..

 

[HSTEd]

Down-spec'ing of Euston.
Rolling stock with lower speed: The Guardian .. Feb'23


and of course, getting a Old Oak - Birmingham line for the price of a Y network to Leeds and Manchester

..

HS2 studies only ever had 360km/h services specced.
400km/h was purely for the alignment.

 

[PG]

Well I guess I will get my high speed tube-style operation after all! Just it will be only going as far as Curzon Street and OOC.

Time to palm off HS2 to TfL then - by the time it opens they'll be able to name it after the incumbent monarch

Something currently still being played out in Central London - where one of a number of current telling features is the amount of space in bus garages now given over to staff car parking !

May I refer you to this post:

I'm speaking as a "terminally in car" who uses a car to get to work at 4am to run your public transport network, because there's no public transport to get me to work.

 

[Merle Haggard]

1833; London & Birmingham Railway.
2033 (ish) Ealing & Birmingham Railway to replace it.
Progress.

 

[WatcherZero]

Sunak just refused to comment on HS2 at his statement on Net Zero.

"I am making the hard long term decisions on infrastructure with our children in mind and not short term political decisions*".

*Proceeds to put back dates for implementation of green infrastructure policies by five years to satisfy the 'people in the middle of the argument' that are silently calling out for them to be delayed but not abandoned that apparently only he can hear.

 

[Class 170101]

How many extra freight paths is HS2 going to free up on WCML? I think that freight should be prioritised on wcml regardless.

According to HS2: https://www.hs2.org.uk/why/capacity/

"HS2 could provide space for an extra 20 WCML freight paths"

This is of course just one estimate/projection/guess.

But thats a fat lot of use on the southern part WCML (south of Crewe) as very little freight is contained within those limits. It wanders off to Felixstowe, Southampton and many otrher places besides, capacity released beyond the WCML at the moment is none.

 

[The Planner]

But thats a fat lot of use on the southern part WCML (south of Crewe) as very little freight is contained within those limits. It wanders off to Felixstowe, Southampton and many otrher places besides, capacity released beyond the WCML at the moment is none.

That makes the assumption that its all going to/from Camden and Mitre Bridge. There is no reason to assume it doesnt release capacity to Felixstowe via Nuneaton, DIRFT and via E-W towards Oxford.

 

[Fazaar1889]

At certain points in the latest HS2 project update video, there were 4 tracks shown. I was under the assumption that HS2 would be 2 track. Where will it be 4 track?

 

[JamesT]

At certain points in the latest HS2 project update video, there were 4 tracks shown. I was under the assumption that HS2 would be 2 track. Where will it be 4 track?

Either in stations or their approaches, or possibly it’s leading up to a junction. The high speeds will need longer sections for trains to speed up or slow down, which may be running in parallel.

 

[James Finch]

At certain points in the latest HS2 project update video, there were 4 tracks shown. I was under the assumption that HS2 would be 2 track. Where will it be 4 track?

Might be due to the potential 2x2 track section from the meeting point at Calvert/Claydon, to Aylesbury Vale Parkway - the track bed is 4 tracks wide to provide the option for EWR to extend alongside to AVP

 

[The Planner]

Might be due to the potential 2x2 track section from the meeting point at Calvert/Claydon, to Aylesbury Vale Parkway - the track bed is 4 tracks wide to provide the option for EWR to extend alongside to AVP

Most of that section of EWR will be single.

At certain points in the latest HS2 project update video, there were 4 tracks shown. I was under the assumption that HS2 would be 2 track. Where will it be 4 track?

Fair bit of 4 track and flyovers near Birmingham Interchange.

 

[david_g]

There is (or maybe was if the plans have changed) a short 4 track section where the maintenance loops are at Wormleighton