More Delay for HS2, and how should we proceed?

[MarkLong]

Sorry not to be fully-briefed, but is the Birmingham to Handsacre Junction line likely to survive this latest purge?

This section is in Phrase 1 in anyway, the pity thing is they cancel the p2a to Crewe.

For surely in P2b, a reasonable option maybe is waiting for inflation cooling down and maybe revise the design. But just cancel all phrase 2 is a mad decision.

and no mega project can run on budget, in China usually it is 50-100% overbudget, but you never seen this because of their media census.

Even for Japan, the HSR always over budget, similarity hardly known by others because their collective culture and a few journalistic have good Japanese to read local papers and reports.

 

[Roast Veg]

Let me get this straight - the treasury think cancelling phase 2 is a bad decision, business leaders think it's a bad decision, northern MPs of both colours think it's a bad decision, and rail professionals think it's a bad decision.

Who exactly is pressing for this, and why?

 

[Samzino]

This section is in Phrase 1 in anyway, the pity thing is they cancel the p2a to Crewe.

For surely in P2b, a reasonable option maybe is waiting for inflation cooling down and maybe revise the design. But just cancel all phrase 2 is a mad decision.

and no mega project can run on budget, in China usually it is 50-100% overbudget, but you never seen this because of their media census.

Even for Japan, the HSR always over budget, similarity hardly known by others because their collective culture and a few journalistic have good Japanese to read local papers and reports.

But overbudget by how much and how consistently is the question? Maybe I'm being a debby downer but I can't remember the last on budget project the uk had railway wise off thr top of my head that wasn't quite a bit over the Intial and subsequent budgets.

 

[MarkLong]

But overbudget by how much and how consistently is the question? Maybe I'm being a debby downer but I can't remember the last on budget project the uk had railway wise off thr top of my head that wasn't quite a bit over the Intial and subsequent budgets.

For example, the first inter province high speed railway, the bill firstly set in 98.6bn CNY in 2006, but when finished in 2011, it actually cost 236bn CNY.

 

[Gerald Fiennes]

Well, re Post 1975, look at the playback but he presumably was meaning the East- West link across the Pennines that is NPR. However, he glided over the point that HS2 Ph2b provides much of the new infra for the (scaled-back under IRP) NPR.... But the bigger point is surely that expectations have risen too far about each of these projects, something that is not new. The Oakervee review was the place where this debate should have been had....but No 10 just wanted to get on with it.

 

[JonathanH]

For surely in P2b, a reasonable option maybe is waiting for inflation cooling down and maybe revise the design. But just cancel all phrase 2 is a mad decision.

Inflation 'cooling down' doesn't really help. The inflation that has made this unaffordable in the eyes of government has already happened, and led to the panic. It can't be unwound.

There is no great untapped source of money coming in the future to save infrastructure projects, and presumably the thing that has brought about the government panic is that projections are suggesting that the net growth in the economy from building HS2 once its cost is taken into account is unlikely to be greater than money spent on other projects.

It is a shame that the economic analysis supporting these decisions doesn't get published for us to understand more about the level of concern.

 

[SynthD]

Who exactly is pressing for this, and why?

A pair of people who think that this will give them the financial room to give a funded promise of higher pensions after the election.

Could all the contracts not yet signed be rewritten to put the risk on the government? We’ve been told that the price is so high because the contractors are taking the risk, but that seems a poor choice. That would make it cheaper, and more deliverable in many ways.

 

[JamieL]

Let me get this straight - the treasury think cancelling phase 2 is a bad decision, business leaders think it's a bad decision, northern MPs of both colours think it's a bad decision, and rail professionals think it's a bad decision.

Who exactly is pressing for this, and why?

Sunak. He is desperate for votes and scrapping phase 2 will fund an inheritance tax giveaway to his core voters.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Sorry not to be fully-briefed, but is the Birmingham to Handsacre Junction line likely to survive this latest purge?

Both politicos and journalists are guilty of using confusing language on HS2.
Variously, they will say HS2 will be scrapped "to Manchester" or "Birmingham to Manchester" or "north of Birmingham".
Since the February "pauses", The Birmingham-Handsacre section of Phase 1 is aligned with Phase 2a (Handsacre-Crewe), and the OOC-Euston project, the aim being to get improved costs over the delayed sections.
Phase 2b (Crewe-Manchester) is going through parliament and was due to reach Royal Assent in 2025.

It looks like Crewe-Manchester is a dead duck, so the bill in parliament might well be stopped in its tracks.
Handsacre-Crewe also looks in the firing line, despite being the best value of any of the sections, with no major infrastructure challenges.
My guess is that Birmingham (Water Orton)-Handsacre will survive, so there is a connection with the WCML, but the inevitable bottleneck at Colwich says hello.
But beware politicians wielding axes, as they are inclined to chop too much to make their point.

I should also think the proposed Water Orton-East Midlands Parkway leg would also be scrapped, leaving HS2 as simply a WCML-south bypass.

Labour might bluster, but it would be quite hard to revive any cancellations once work has stopped, contracts terminated and teams dismantled.
Even worse would be not safeguarding the routes already approved, and selling the land back.
The 1975 Channel Tunnel project (with public money) was cancelled, yet 12 years later it was being built (with private money).
Not that the 1987 Channel Tunnel is a fine example of cost control and shareholder value.

Sunak. He is desperate for votes and scrapping phase 2 will fund an inheritance tax giveaway to his core voters.

This is not right - you can't equate capital spend with tax concessions.
But he might spend the HS2 capital money in other ways - schools, hospitals, defence equipment etc.

 

[MarkLong]

Sunak. He is desperate for votes and scrapping phase 2 will fund an inheritance tax giveaway to his core voters.

Did him even know B'ham to Crewe and Crewe to Manchester is totally different level of challenges and difficulties hence it is dumb to axe them all together?

 

[jfowkes]

This is not right - you can't equate capital spend with tax concessions

Yeah you can. If your goal is winning votes then as long as it makes a nice soundbite or headline, doesn't actually have to make sense.

 

[D869]

In a nutshell:
"Tory government announces new high-speed railway is unaffordable because of 13 years of Tory government."

 

[Roast Veg]

Labour might bluster, but it would be quite hard to revive any cancellations once work has stopped, contracts terminated and teams dismantled.
Even worse would be not safeguarding the routes already approved, and selling the land back.

So far, thankfully, not even the original eastern leg has been un-safeguarded, and will still show up in any land survey for future development on the line of route.

 

[JKF]

Really? All the people I knew in the Chilterns 50 years ago were extremely unhappy about the M40 going through their landscape!

The amount of fuss about the Chilterns just shows the low standards for beauty they have in the south. I mean, it’s not like Yorkshire or anything.

 

[chris2]

There’s plenty of work gone on north of the delta junction at Water Orton which would be totally redundant if the line is only ever going to Curzon St. If the thinking is that the works that have begun should be completed, then that would entail completing the link into WCML at handsacre as most of it is underway.

Phase 1 also includes the beginnings of the junctions for the continuation of the line to Crewe and the eastern leg. What would happen to these in the event that both lines get cancelled? Would they be redesigned or just installed as per current plans?

 

[Mikey C]

I'm baffled why they're cancelling expenditure that is years away, and won't free up any money to spend or give away now?

Politically it's a decision that can be left until later.

 

[zwk500]

I'm baffled why they're cancelling expenditure that is years away, and won't free up any money to spend or give away now?

Politically it's a decision that can be left until later.

Contracts would need to be signed reasonably soon, and of course there's a lot of preparatory work going on right now that isn't as visible but is still costing money.

 

[JonathanH]

I'm baffled why they're cancelling expenditure that is years away, and won't free up any money to spend or give away now?

Politically it's a decision that can be left until later.

Even if it is miles away, it still has to be allowed for in projections of expenditure and borrowing.

 

[LYuen]

What is really needed is the evaluation of the impact on the business case for each scale-down of the HS2 section.
For example when the Old-Oak Common to Euston section is scrapped, how much potential benefits of HS2 are lost and what the benefits/cost ratio it becomes.
And the same for Birmingham to Crewe, Crewe to Manchester.

Wonderful timing when the West Coast Partnership is just extended and this comes today, although I am doubtful of both projects anyway.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Another cancellation headache is that the railway contracts (track, signalling etc) were all being negotiated on a Euston-Birmingham-Crewe basis, in order to get the economies of scale for the longer route.
They will have to rework all that for a truncated line, with inevitably higher unit costs.

There was also an infrastructure depot at Stone and a train maintenance depot north of Crewe in the Phase 2 plans.
The train fleet will also not need to be as big, and Curzon St will not need as many platforms.
Without at least Phase 2a there will be new pinch points on the WCML north of Handsacre, and the released capacity benefits won't be forthcoming except on Euston-Birmingham.

 

[Mikey C]

Contracts would need to be signed reasonably soon, and of course there's a lot of preparatory work going on right now that isn't as visible but is still costing money.

The Crewe to Manchester expenditure in the next 2 years would be minimal in relation to the costs incurred in say 10 years time though.

 

[LYuen]

Even for Japan, the HSR always over budget, similarity hardly known by others because their collective culture and a few journalistic have good Japanese to read local papers and reports.

Not entirely true for Japan though - Delay and overbudget are reported in the news, but it doesn't translate into pressure towards the project.

For example, the Chūō Shinkansen (the new Maglev Line between Tokyo, Nagoya and Osaka) currently sits at 25% over budget.
However, since the project is basically privately funded, as long as the company can afford that, it will be fine.

On the other hand, the government-funded Hokkaido Shinkansen Sapporo extension is at least 35% over budget.
Although the project isn't at risk, it hinders the construction of other government-funded new high-speed lines.

 

[Luke McDonnell]

If this is true again I will be deeply disappointed and I believe that in the case that this government deserves a massive wipeout and the next election. After all at the moment nothing is confirmed officially it is just rumours and rumblings in the media so why do a lot on here think that this is a done deal - especially considering that there are many people not least in Government itself that don't want the Manchester leg to be cancelled? Yes I know Sunak is sceptical but other cabinet minsters are more enthusiastic and we are supposed to have a cabinet system of government under collective responsibility not a presidential system. As I would be disappointed do you think I should take heart in the fact that the current government will probably be out of office in a year and Labour will commit in full - a lot on here seem sceptical of that too surely Labour would not make the mistake of snubbing the northern mayors and MPs or are behind the project they need to step up IMO. Also do you think there is any chance the cancellation will not happen due to the potential backlash?

 

[HurdyGurdy]

My guess is that Birmingham (Water Orton)-Handsacre will survive, so there is a connection with the WCML, but the inevitable bottleneck at Colwich

You would have to assume this. With no connection to the WCML, HS2 trains would be captive on the new line serving just one intermediate station between Curzon St and Old Oak. Would there be enough demand for such a shuttle to fill even 3 x 230m trains per hour? As the solution to the UK's transport infrastructure needs it would look ridiculous, but you have to factor in the desperation of politicians who lead parties and will clutch at any straw to appear decisive and in touch with their base.

Assuming the Y network which is eventually committed to is Old Oak - Curzon St/Handsacre, its operation will be limited by the capacity of the station at Old Oak to terminate trains. Best use of Old Oak's ability to handle long trains may be to join/split trains at the Birmingham Airport Interchange. Old Oak to Euston is on hold because the detailed designs for the terminus are somewhere north of £4bn, whereas the fag packet figure was just over £2bn. If the missing £2bn gap can't be closed, either by radical redesign or finding a couple of billion down the back of the sofa, HS2 is condemned to be a fairly limited affair.

I may be looking at this down the wrong end of the telescope, but until there is a commitment to provide terminal capacity at the London end, such that the line's full capacity can be used, it would be difficult for any future government to make an economic case for extending beyond Water Orton in any direction, let alone integrating HS2 with NPR.

 

[matacaster]

Whilst it's bad from an economic man mic viewpoint, justification for 3 extra (ie in addition to wcml current offering) between London and Birmingham seems like plenty, certainly in the short term. You could get more wcml freight paths by cutting some of the commuter trains like bletchley (the frequency of which the north has never had, so people have to wait).

 

[Noddy]

I hear this talk of mismanagement all the time but can anyone actually point to examples of such, rather than just design choices being taken that people disagree with?

Phase one seems to be going pretty well to me.

I think you’ve missed my point slightly. I agree Phase 1 (OOC-Birmingham) is going pretty well now but this is precisely because it is (or was) past the point where there is significant government interference. Unfortunately, it looks like that government interference in Phase 2 may, in an unbelievable act of stupidity, absolutely destroy the business case (and future profitability) of the OOC-Birmingham section.

 

[SynthD]

Would there be enough demand for such a shuttle to fill even 3 x 230m trains per hour?

Yes, if the prices are right.

Best use of Old Oak's ability to handle long trains may be to join/split trains at the Birmingham Airport Interchange.

Good idea. Though, as the station was never designed for this, I’d like to know what it needs to be capable.

 

[The Ham]

You would have to assume this. With no connection to the WCML, HS2 trains would be captive on the new line serving just one intermediate station between Curzon St and Old Oak. Would there be enough demand for such a shuttle to fill even 3 x 230m trains per hour? As the solution to the UK's transport infrastructure needs it would look ridiculous, but you have to factor in the desperation of politicians who lead parties and will clutch at any straw to appear decisive and in touch with their base.

Assuming the Y network which is eventually committed to is Old Oak - Curzon St/Handsacre, its operation will be limited by the capacity of the station at Old Oak to terminate trains. Best use of Old Oak's ability to handle long trains may be to join/split trains at the Birmingham Airport Interchange. Old Oak to Euston is on hold because the detailed designs for the terminus are somewhere north of £4bn, whereas the fag packet figure was just over £2bn. If the missing £2bn gap can't be closed, either by radical redesign or finding a couple of billion down the back of the sofa, HS2 is condemned to be a fairly limited affair.

I may be looking at this down the wrong end of the telescope, but until there is a commitment to provide terminal capacity at the London end, such that the line's full capacity can be used, it would be difficult for any future government to make an economic case for extending beyond Water Orton in any direction, let alone integrating HS2 with NPR.

There's about £9.5bn of contingency (split between HS2 and government reserves) for phase one - so even an extra £3bn extra at Euston would still be manageable and still have extra for some future over spend (there's current been £1.8bn reported).

Which raises the question, the £8bn reported is that only linked to phase one (either way it's not exceeding the total reserves) as if it is the whole project then the amount from the "government reserve" may not actually be that significant. It could even be less than £1bn (which is a lot, but not really for the government - and it depends on the impact on the benefits side, as if not spending that £1bn results in £5bn of lost benefits then it's a really stupid thing to cut).

 

[Sniffingmoose]

I know most members of the forum we would love to have HS2 built, but think about it from jo public point of view. Is it a priority for more capacity on the West Coast Main line? They are certainly not bothered about a 20min faster journey Birmingham to London. The country feels poorer. 1 in 7 are stuck on NHS waiting lists. Most people I talk to want public money spent on NHS, Schools, Police, Pot holes, and local transport So I have to say its a vote winner to cancel the parts of the route that has been started. If politicians ask the public, they will want to cancel as much as the project as possible to get votes. I wonder if the cabinet is being briefed that the project is not a vote winner.

So I am not arguing weather the project should be built or its different because its capital spending but I can understand why politicians are having jitters about the project as the election looms.

 

[SynthD]

If politicians ask the public, they will want to cancel as much as the project as possible to get votes. I wonder if the cabinet is being briefed that the project is not a vote winner.

The polling disagrees, though it’s easy to be confident with any opinion if you set out to do it regardless of what the polling says.