More Delay for HS2, and how should we proceed?

[Trainbike46]

Tenement ownership is basically commonhold (similar to condominium ownership as is common in the US), which can be used in England now and would be if we banned leasehold as we should. The actual buildings are blocks of flats no different from any others.

Three-floor terraces are quite efficient while allowing people to have houses as British people generally prefer. There's quite a few in newer MK estates and they're quite desirable.



Leasehold is a feudalist scam and needs abolished.

Fully agree leasehold is terrible, and really shouldn't exist. It should have been abolished ages ago, and really needs to go soon. Unfortunately, leasehold appears to creep into non-flat houses as well now.

At the risk of going off topic I dont think the density of devlopment is the (only) issue, I think the problem is the quality of what is built.

There is real build quality issues in the UK, in all types of new builds. Personally, I suspect a lot of that comes down to insufficient quality controls - which is especially problematic for things that aren't immediately obvious to new houseowners (such as missing insulation, or missing fire safety features)

I'd probably agree. My mate lives in a housing association flat, and both the design and the construction quality is awful.

An extra problem here is though that whenever local authorities build something that is desirable in any way shape or form, it gets bought away via right to buy for way too little money - creating an incentive to purposefully build **** housing.

Though that shouldn't apply to housing associations, as they are not subject to right to buy despite the best efforts of BoJo

 

[HSTEd]

This an absolutely ludicrous position. Planning does more than prevent sprawl. Do you want heavy industry right next to your house? Or for it to be insulated with asbestos?

Planning permission is not the same as building control/building regulations.
So it would not be insulated with asbestos, and if it was, I simply wouldn't buy the house would I?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 28 Sep 2023 ==

And high-density doesn't necessarily mean flats - victorian-style terraces can achieve high densities while still offering people back gardens, so can be a valuable part of the mix.

I live in a Victorian style terrace, I would not qualify the tiny yard I have as a "garden"
And mines the largest on the row because it hasn't been extended like all the others.

The majority have no real outdoor space at all.

EDIT:

But this is all extremly off topic, we should probably park it unless someone wants a general discussion thread?

 

[Mikey C]

An example of a sprawling city is Auckland. Because land is plentiful, it sprawls forever for the size of its population, with everyone living in bungalows.

 

[BRX]

The approach was quite different here in Australia where areas to be preserved were turned into parklands or national parks that cannot be used for any purpose other that natural preservation or recreational activities. Anything else that was there before was removed.

Outside of those protected areas was open to urbanisation and miles and miles of cheap land was rezoned from agricultural to suburban growth. This was mostly done to prevent Australian cities from becoming too built up and ending up like new york.

And Australia consistently comes out as one of the worst countries on the planet for public transport accessibility and greenhouse emissions.

 

[eldomtom2]

Planning permission is not the same as building control/building regulations.

It's another thing restricting development...

So it would not be insulated with asbestos, and if it was, I simply wouldn't buy the house would I?

Do you understand the concept of inequality of bargaining power?

 

[Sussex Star]

What is the cost of building the Handsacre junction to connect phase 1 to the existing WCML just north of Brum?

If the government scraps everything north of Birmingham, will there really be significant savings* curtailing the project to a Birmingham-OOC shuttle, compared with retaining the ability to switch a few services from further north onto the HS2 route?

Even if it was just 1x Liverpool, 1xGlasgow and 1xManchester into OOC, it seems like a worthwhile PR win for what would be a relatively small cost.

*(I appreciate there's a debate about whether any of this actually is "savings" given spend is spread over decades, and construction inflation, but what's the headline price of the junction as of today?)

 

[BrianW]

It's another thing restricting development...

Do you understand the concept of inequality of bargaining power?

'Growth' means more, so sprawl, or New Towns, or densification, or combinations thereof, some of which may be supportive of more trains. More working from home may mean fewer, shorter or less frequent trains; flexible working may mean shallower, or differing, peaks. 'The market' may decide. 'The Planners' (Committees of 'elected representatives') may have influence. An appointed 'National Infrastructure Commission' may commission. What does the Great British public want; what will it pay? HS2 is a great Case Study- so sad.

 

[snowball]

The Guardian on money spent on buying up property:

£600m of public money spent buying up property in north of England for HS2

Homes and land purchased to make way for line that now appears to be in doubt, as Rishi Sunak refuses to commit to it

www.theguardian.com

Almost £600m of public money has already been spent buying up land and properties for HS2 in the north of England, despite uncertainty that the train line will ever get beyond Birmingham.

Rishi Sunak repeatedly refused to commit to bringing HS2 to Manchester on Thursday, amid concerns that the project’s cost could exceed £100bn, three times the original estimate.

So far almost £423m has been spent buying up 424 properties on the western leg from Birmingham to Manchester, despite no spades yet being in the ground on that imperilled section.

Of that, £219m has been spent on the Birmingham to Crewe section (phase 2a) and £204m on Crewe to Manchester (phase 2b west), the Guardian has learned. Among those to sell up include the comedian John Bishop, who reportedly sold his mansion in the Cheshire village of Whatcroft for £6.8m in 2019.

 

[The Ham]

The Guardian on money spent on buying up property:

£600m of public money spent buying up property in north of England for HS2

Homes and land purchased to make way for line that now appears to be in doubt, as Rishi Sunak refuses to commit to it

www.theguardian.com

However then there's the other side of the coin, which then the Daily Mail report (million earned from renting properties):

HS2 bosses make £30million renting out homes near the new railway line

Some families say they were forced to haggle to get a fair price and have now discovered their homes are being rented out by HS2 to recoup some of the money it paid out.

www.dailymail.co.uk

HS2 bosses make £30million renting out homes near the new railway line they encouraged owners to sell​

Some families say they were forced to haggle to get a fair price and have now discovered their homes are being rented out by HS2 to recoup some of the money it paid out.

At the start of February (2019) the state-owned company was renting out almost 700 properties, making £7.7million for the Treasury over the year – and almost £30million since 2014.

It has bought 1,189 properties, including 229 under compulsory purchase. HS2 said this money is returned to the Department for Transport and helps ensure 'value for money for the taxpayer'.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The Guardian on money spent on buying up property:

£600m of public money spent buying up property in north of England for HS2

Homes and land purchased to make way for line that now appears to be in doubt, as Rishi Sunak refuses to commit to it

www.theguardian.com

Though to be fair given that the property market always rises over time (there are dips and peaks, but over say a 30 year period the trend is always up, and significantly so), should they be sold off in the end it'll have been a profitable endeavour.

 

[Manutd1999]

What is the cost of building the Handsacre junction to connect phase 1 to the existing WCML just north of Brum?

If the government scraps everything north of Birmingham, will there really be significant savings* curtailing the project to a Birmingham-OOC shuttle, compared with retaining the ability to switch a few services from further north onto the HS2 route?

Even if it was just 1x Liverpool, 1xGlasgow and 1xManchester into OOC, it seems like a worthwhile PR win for what would be a relatively small cost.

Even for this government, cancelling Handsacre would be a ridiculous decision.

If Phase 2a/b is cancelled/delayed, then a sensible fallback would be to build Handsacre and also the 400m platforms at Crewe and Carlisle.

This would enable something like 3ph Birmingham (400m), 2ph Manchester (200m), 1ph Liverpool/Lancaster (400m, splitting at Crewe), 1ph Glasgow/Edinburgh (400m, splitting at Carlisle) and 1ph Macclesfield (200m). Capacity to turnback at OOC would probably be the limiting factor.

Journey times would still be reduced considerably vs today and there would be capacity benefits on the southern WCML.

 

[AndrewE]

Even for this government, cancelling Handsacre would be a ridiculous decision.

so prepare yourself...!
I cannot get used to the number of decisions which seem to fly in the face of all logic (to be polite.) I thnk it is down to pandering to vested interests, and paying off financial support. It used to be called corruption, but that doesn't seem to be a problem nowadays.

 

[HSTEd]

so prepare yourself...!
I cannot get used to the number of decisions which seem to fly in the face of all logic (to be polite.) I thnk it is down to pandering to vested interests, and paying off financial support. It used to be called corruption, but that doesn't seem to be a problem nowadays.

Or more likely that the Government no longer has any trust at all in HS2's costings and its ability to actually deliver what it claims.

I can see the argument for axing everything that is not already committed to construction just to staunch the bleeding. HS2 is turning into Berlin Brandenburg airport and the government really doesn't want a 20 year long saga of ever spiralling costs.

 

[London Trains]

Even for this government, cancelling Handsacre would be a ridiculous decision.

Handsacre being scrapped isn't that much of a bad idea provided phase 2a is built.

If they scrap both Handsacre and phase 2a then the government have gone mad in all honesty.

 

[chris2]

If they scrap both Handsacre and phase 2a then the government have gone mad in all honesty.

If you believe that the route from OOC - Birmingham is already too far advanced to cancel, then the same applies to some form of northerly connection - either (or perhaps both of) Handsacre and Phase 2A.

True, the short spur itself to the WCML is not far advanced but construction of the route north from Birmingham is as advanced as other parts of phase 1 until past Lichfield.

Well advertised construction milestones such as the Marston Box M42, Streethay A38 / Staffs freight line bridge drive and the huge delta junction / Water Orton viaducts are all on this part of the route north of the “Birmingham shuttle” line and literally have zero utility unless trains are going to go north of Birmingham in some form; in my view, at least one of Phase 2A or Handsacre will definitely happen.

 

[snowball]

in my view, at least one of Phase 2A or Handsacre will definitely happen.

I think just about everyone is agreeing with this. Not only because of the work already done north of Water Orton, but also because it would be nonsensical, even by this government's standards, to limit the scheme to not reaching north of Curzon Street.

However, as far as I can see, very little has so far been done on the ground that would be wasted if just one of phase 2A and Handsacre went ahead, and the other was dropped.

 

[Arkeeos]

it would be nonsensical, even by this government's standards, to limit the scheme to not reaching north of Curzon Street.

People say that but only a few weeks ago by all accounts Sunak had made up his mind about scrapping everything but OOC to Curzon street, we are unfortunately not being governed by reasonable people

 

[snowball]

People say that but only a few weeks ago by all accounts Sunak had made up his mind about scrapping everything but OOC to Curzon street, we are unfortunately not being governed by reasonable people

He probably didn't understand what the Handsacre link was a few weeks ago. But now he'e clearly dithering and pressured from all sides.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

He probably didn't understand what the Handsacre link was a few weeks ago. But now he'e clearly dithering and pressured from all sides.

Does anyone expect an announcement to be made during the Party Conference that will be held in Manchester of all places.

 

[jon0844]

Does anyone expect an announcement to be made during the Party Conference that will be held in Manchester of all places.

They probably think that if they cast enough doubt, they can announce there that it WILL happen and expect everyone to cheer.

 

[HSTEd]

The handsacre connection would probably considerably ease Network Rail's issues at New Street, so I think either it or Phase 2A will happen pretty reliably.

Curzon Street can be used for overspill for New Street for trains coming from the North in that case.

You could probably build a business case for Handsacre on that alone.

 

[class26]

Does anyone expect an announcement to be made during the Party Conference that will be held in Manchester of all places.

NO, It will be delayed until later and probably come out on a good day to "bury bad news" later in the autumn.
My thoughts, for what they are worth is that the decision is more or less made and the delay is for some back of fag packet ideas ie trams in Leeds snd other local transport ideas in various northern cities as a sop to HS2`s abandonment etc These will be little more than wishful think and no doubt get dropped later on after many expensive consultants reports, the one thing we are good at !

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

NO, It will be delayed until later and probably come out on a good day to "bury bad news" later in the autumn.
My thoughts, for what they are worth is that the decision is more or less made and the delay is for some back of fag packet ideas ie trams in Leeds snd other local transport ideas in various northern cities as a sop to HS2`s abandonment etc These will be little more than wishful think and no doubt get dropped later on after many expensive consultants reports, the one thing we are good at !

Of course, these days do not see as many "fag packets" as in days of yore...

 

[daodao]

Does anyone expect an announcement to be made during the Party Conference that will be held in Manchester of all places.

One scenario that would be entertaining would be for Sunak to hold a meeting with Burnham while in Manchester and at the subsequent press conference to announce that no more parliamentary time would be allocated to the HS2 phase 2b bill currently going through parliament.

 

[Sonik]

Or more likely that the Government no longer has any trust at all in HS2's costings and its ability to actually deliver what it claims.

I can see the argument for axing everything that is not already committed to construction just to staunch the bleeding. HS2 is turning into Berlin Brandenburg airport and the government really doesn't want a 20 year long saga of ever spiralling costs.

That's not really true though, it's simply a narrative that's been deliberately spread via sympathetic anti-HS2 press, to justify politically motivated priorities to move funding elsewhere. HS2 remains within both it's budget contingency and the IRP envelope.

If the government were doing this to push HS2 to pull their socks up, then it would be a credible move, but that doesn't appear to be their motivation. My view is that Sunak simply views HS2 as unpopular and therefore an easy cash grab

But he doesn't appear to have given much thought to the political & economic fallout of canceling it. Not least because besides being infrastructure, it's a multi billion pound economic stimulus that's supporting over 30k jobs spread right across the country. And I don't think anyone will seriously believe that money 'saved' will be invested in transport elsewhere, because after so many chops and changes already government promises have lost all credibility.

 

[The Ham]

Or more likely that the Government no longer has any trust at all in HS2's costings and its ability to actually deliver what it claims.

I can see the argument for axing everything that is not already committed to construction just to staunch the bleeding. HS2 is turning into Berlin Brandenburg airport and the government really doesn't want a 20 year long saga of ever spiralling costs.

Other than Euston (which had doubled) what else has seen spiralling costs? Not the tunnels (once they were added), not the rolling stock (which some reports have at least than the budget costs, probably not those bridges which were installed well within the allotted closure times (with the roads/rail handed back early).

If 5% of the budget has doubled, and there's a 10% contingency, then it's still within the contingency of the budget.

Unless there's other areas where it's significantly increased, I'm struggling to understand where the spiralling costs have come from (given we're talking about the construction budget costs, as any cost increases from 2009 to when the final budget was set are already baked into the decision to proceed at that time).

I'm happy for people to provide evidence.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

There is always the view that the Government see deliberate uncertainty on HS2 as a stick to beat the rail unions with, so they can say money would be better spent on other projects more welcoming.

 

[Sonik]

Unless there's other areas where it's significantly increased, I'm struggling to understand where the spiralling costs have come from (given we're talking about the construction budget costs, as any cost increases from 2009 to when the final budget was set are already baked into the decision to proceed at that time).

My understanding is that besides general inflation, it's a combination of scope creep and deliberately optimistic initial estimates, both of which have their roots in political wrangling.

All of this is par for the course with any public scheme, and while effective cost control is clearly essential in any project, the idea being sold that it's unaffordable, or will drain funds from elsewhere, is just short term politics with little basis in financial reality.

Another major cost driver is likely the increase in government debt rates, which itself was largely caused by government incompetence spooking the market (Truss effect). Further radical changes to government priorities aren't going to do anything to improve investor confidence.

Scheme engineering has been subject to significant cost optimization, but general spending, particularity on professional services, has been somewhat decadent, and this is only inflated by constant changes to scope. Any contractor will tell you they make most of their profit on variations, and unsurprisingly, elements of HS2 that haven't been interfered with (Interchange, Curzon Street) are all on budget or under.

HS2 is a debt-funded long term investment so canceling it won't even release much in the way of funds, especially since most of the repayment was to be funded from revenue, which will be hobbled by curtaining the scheme. So in the medium term, in cash terms, it may even cost more to cancel it, because the already committed debt will still need to be repaid from a much reduced revenue base. The return ratio on the whole scheme improves with every extension added.

Cancelling 2b is like doing up a house and trying to sell it half finished, that's obviously going to cost vs finishing it off and selling for the best price. Especially since the most expensive parts of the scheme are already committed.

 

[Mikey C]

People say that but only a few weeks ago by all accounts Sunak had made up his mind about scrapping everything but OOC to Curzon street, we are unfortunately not being governed by reasonable people

But we don't KNOW that. Stories get planted in the media, but we don't know what's really going on behind the scenes.

 

[Greybeard33]

The handsacre connection would probably considerably ease Network Rail's issues at New Street, so I think either it or Phase 2A will happen pretty reliably.

Curzon Street can be used for overspill for New Street for trains coming from the North in that case.

You could probably build a business case for Handsacre on that alone.

How would you conjure the capacity for HS2 Birmingham services through the 2-track Shugborough tunnel and the flat junction at Colwich? AIUI any HS2 services on the WCML through the Trent Valley would have to take the paths of existing Avanti services to/from Euston, thereby worsening connectivity between the North West and Milton Keynes, Rugby and Nuneaton.

It seems unlikely that the north to west curve of the Water Orton triangular junction will be used unless both 2a and 2b are built through to Manchester.