More Delay for HS2, and how should we proceed?

[Snow1964]

Don't underestimate the time reduction for GWR passengers changing to the Elizabeth Line at Old Oak Common instead of Paddington.

I would not be surprised if lots change at OOC on way into London, where a proportion of Elizabeth line trains will be empty as starting from there.
But heading out of London going west, change at Paddington, which has lots of facilities, and can settle in your seat (when they are not suspended due to short form).
Time wise probably only going to be couple of minutes in it

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

IPA is basically saying to govt if you don't give it the money it needs you wont realise the outputs. ie its not saying its got a fundamental technical or construction issues.

The stark reality is this project should never have been started as it was always going to drain funds away from other more useful transport projects around the UKs major conurbations but no politician from any mainstream party will ever stop it now so they need to give it the extra cash to get Phase 1 built by 2029 now not 2033 and just get on with Euston.

 

[Snow1964]

IPA is basically saying to govt if you don't give it the money it needs you wont realise the outputs. ie its not saying its got a fundamental technical or construction issues.

The stark reality is this project should never have been started as it was always going to drain funds away from other more useful transport projects around the UKs major conurbations but no politician from any mainstream party will ever stop it now so they need to give it the extra cash to get Phase 1 built by 2029 now not 2033 and just get on with Euston.

Crossrail had 2 years of red in 2018/19 and 2019/20

So is also used to indicate when a project seems to have lost its way, and needs some serious focus (time, further development, investment, etc.) to move to successful operation.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Crossrail had 2 years of red in 2018/19 and 2019/20

Of course thats teh same IPA that had that project green for years and only when it didn't open on time it went RED

ie its another govt quango with questionable benefits to no one except those that get well remunerated by looking at the various projects

 

[DoubleLemon]

.

The stark reality is this project should never have been started as it was always going to drain funds away from other more useful transport projects around the UKs major conurbations but no politician from any mainstream party will ever stop it now so they need to give it the extra cash to get Phase 1 built by 2029 now not 2033 and just get on with Euston.

Totally disagree. It was not guaranteed to take money away from other projects. It has because the current government has decided that's how it works. It is and always will be a political decision. Money can always be found. Cough. 36 billion for a track and trace app that never worked. How much that money could have been spent on the railway. Reducing child poverty (estimated 10b) or building council houses.

We can easily afford both. If the government actually governed properly.

 

[JamesT]

Totally disagree. It was not guaranteed to take money away from other projects. It has because the current government has decided that's how it works. It is and always will be a political decision. Money can always be found. Cough. 36 billion for a track and trace app that never worked. How much that money could have been spent on the railway. Reducing child poverty (estimated 10b) or building council houses.

We can easily afford both. If the government actually governed properly.

Why are people still peddling this falsehood? We did not spend £36bn on an app. https://fullfact.org/online/track-and-trace-project-cost/

 

[snowball]

Totally disagree. It was not guaranteed to take money away from other projects. It has because the current government has decided that's how it works. It is and always will be a political decision. Money can always be found.

Truss thought that. Look what happened to her.

 

[Trainbike46]

Truss thought that. Look what happened to her.

Money for a tax cut with zero explanation of where it comes from, or what benefits it brings, is not at all comparable to money for infrastructure investment

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Money can always be found.....

...for what a Government in charge deems to be good for the country, such as the NHS.

 

[Meerkat]

Is the delay on some HS2 work helping contain the costs on the continuing bits, particularly on in demand trades and materials?

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Is the delay on some HS2 work helping contain the costs on the continuing bits, particularly on in demand trades and materials?

Not really.
At best, HS2 will be able to renegotiate some contracts and get a better price than before the pause.
But inflation is eating into all that and will probably end up more expensive.
The railway systems contracts have not been let, so the majors will all want their pounds of flesh.
The delay just caps annual spend at the figure the Treasury says it can afford.
Nobody knows what the outturn will be.

 

[Deepgreen]

Sorry if I'm being thick but what's WLC?

Whole Life Cost.

 

[jayah]

To put this in context, the IPA annual report was published on 20 July, and covers 244 projects of which about 20 involve rail (inludes MML, East Coast Digital, E-W Rail etc, as well as HS2).
The HS2 entries are on p54 of this:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1171218/IPA-Annual-report-2022-2023.pdf

The entries simply show the project status colour coding, and a short description of the project, without any analysis.
There is no discussion of HS2 elsewhere in the document.

On p40 at the head of the listings of project status is a generic paragraph on why a project is coded green, amber, red etc.
This is the paragraph on Red projects:


All the BBC has done is to repeat these paragraphs for red and amber, as though they refer specifically to HS2.
The report is not an analytical assessment of the HS2 projects (though we might well agree with the status they have given).
The BBC report then goes into the well-known budget and timescale issues from HS2's reports.

So I don't think the IPA report presents anything new, any more than the reports of the various Parliamentary committees do.
The IPA is a Cabinet Office agency advising the PM.
It's possible the PM will react to the advice being given, but then he has 200-odd other projects to worry about, many also flashing Red in the IPA report.

The report is nebulous to the extent Phase 1,2a,2b all have the same description. The person writing it probably doesn't know what the phases are.

The red rating (applicable to 2 of the 3 phases) is not uncommon, but pretty stark since none were red last year and Phase 2a has gone straight from Green to Red. There is no detail on why, but the travails of this project are something of a daily soap opera in the national media.

 

[Dan G]

Tony Berkley was just on the radio arguing that Euston and everything "north of Birmingham" should be scrapped immediately. Sounded a bit angry old man tbh.

Jayah if you read my post yesterday you'll see a bit more detail on why phase 1 and 2a are red.

 

[Grimsby town]

Tony Berkley was just on the radio arguing that Euston and everything "north of Birmingham" should be scrapped immediately. Sounded a bit angry old man tbh.

Jayah if you read my post yesterday you'll see a bit more detail on why phase 1 and 2a are red.

And knowing Tony Berkley he'll want it replaced by his ideas. Berkeley was supportive of HS2 in the early days and seemed to become an opponent when his Euston Cross idea was rejected. Could be a complete coincidence of course. He definitely underestimates the time taken for alternatives to be developed and adopted that's for sure. At least there's some acceptance that phase 1 has to be finished know which isn't the case for everbody against the project.

 

[class26]

And knowing Tony Berkley he'll want it replaced by his ideas. Berkeley was supportive of HS2 in the early days and seemed to become an opponent when his Euston Cross idea was rejected. Could be a complete coincidence of course. He definitely underestimates the time taken for alternatives to be developed and adopted that's for sure. At least there's some acceptance that phase 1 has to be finished know which isn't the case for everbody against the project.

I heard the interview and it was so one sided and ommitted much important information. He said the WCML was NOT at all full !!!

 

[abn444]

Tony Berkley was just on the radio arguing that Euston and everything "north of Birmingham" should be scrapped immediately. Sounded a bit angry old man tbh.

If that happened there'd definitely be no point in HS2. I really can't see it being hugely popular not having a central London terminus as it is

 

[irish_rail]

Tony Berkley was just on the radio arguing that Euston and everything "north of Birmingham" should be scrapped immediately. Sounded a bit angry old man tbh.

Jayah if you read my post yesterday you'll see a bit more detail on why phase 1 and 2a are red.

Sigh. I'm no supporter of HS2 but if he got his way then we are still stuck with Old Oak International and slowed down GWR trains, but with no discernible benefit whatsoever. Better to scrap Old Oak Common, sell the land for Tower blocks and leave GWR alone!

 

[BRX]

I wonder if ticketing will be arranged so as to allow GWR passengers to easily switch to an HS2 train direct to Euston, at OOC. That would give quick access to that part of London (and suburban destinations served by euston) without getting tangled in the underground.

 

[The Planner]

I wonder if ticketing will be arranged so as to allow GWR passengers to easily switch to an HS2 train direct to Euston, at OOC. That would give quick access to that part of London (and suburban destinations served by euston) without getting tangled in the underground.

Id expect OOC to be set down only towards Euston when/if it opens. Pick up in the other direction.

 

[snowball]

There was an item on Newsnight on BBC2 just now with Berkeley and Heni Murison.

 

[class26]

There was an item on Newsnight on BBC2 just now with Berkeley and Heni Murison.

Was anything interesting said ?

 

[snowball]

Not that I noticed but it'll doubtless be on iPlayer soon if anyone's sufficiently interested.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

There was an item on Newsnight on BBC2 just now with Berkeley and Heni Murison.

Was anything interesting said ?

Tony Berkeley was still pontificating about starting in the north and spending the money on regional lines rather than a new one.
He said the cost of HS2 would be £186 billion.
Henri Murison, of Transport for the North, wanted the government to let a new HS2 Chief Exec get on with the most efficient plan without micromanagement.
HS2 Ltd didn't turn up, and the IPA didn't send anyone to justify its award of "red" status.
As usual, the possibility of a serious debate was lost in the way it was conducted.

It is the silly season of course, with politicians on holiday and media with columns and air time to fill.

 

[snowball]

Tony Berkeley was still pontificating about starting in the north and spending the money on regional lines rather than a new one.
He said the cost of HS2 would be £186 billion.

Kirsty Wark said he'd got the jackpot with the highest figure.

 

[BRX]

Id expect OOC to be set down only towards Euston when/if it opens. Pick up in the other direction.

That would seem a bit of a waste of potential connectivity.

 

[AlbertBeale]

That would seem a bit of a waste of potential connectivity.

Isn't "waste of potential connectivity" pretty much par for the course with the current HS2 plan?

 

[The Ham]

Isn't "waste of potential connectivity" pretty much par for the course with the current HS2 plan?

If we were building the motorway network, would we be looking to build motorway junctions for every village or even every house along the route?

In the same way, HS lines are akin to the motorway network, whilst the existing rail network is akin to the local road network.

Yes there's going to be those who will have to carry on using the existing rail network whilst being close to HS2. However, a significant number are likely to want to travel locally, so why slow down the significant number on HS2 for the benefit of only a few.

Obviously OOC is slightly different, but with a lot of other options to/from Central London or becomes less of an issue to have limits like pick up/set down only.

 

[Dan G]

An additional detail in the Telegraph article is that Euston is proving impossible to deliver for less than £2.6bn.
View attachment 140002

Following up on the Sunday Telegraph article, Construction News has the detail https://www.constructionnews.co.uk/...ld-be-cut-to-just-seven-platforms-31-07-2023/

Now, the leaked HS2 Ltd document appears to show that the body is looking at scrapping over-site development and lopping off three platforms to reduce the price to £3.5bn.

This is just one of five options reportedly under consideration, with the least dramatic involving re-phasing construction of the existing plans, which would save only £400m.

 

[JonathanH]

Seven platforms would presumably not allow the line to be used to its full 18tph capacity.

Is there a technical reason that makes seven platforms a cheaper construction exercise, for example giving more room for the throat or having the site less constrained, or is it just that it is cheaper to build seven platforms than ten for the obvious reason that it is less work?