National Grid, payment not to use electricity and the cost and risk of generation strategy.

[Bald Rick]

Agile is linked to the day ahead wholesale price, not the "system price" as used on the website quoted above. System price is more of a live price and wouldn't be helpful for Agile as you can't necessarily predict it.

Well, yes, but the day ahead price on a half hourly basis is rather more variable than anything else! (And is closely linked to the actual price, which varies by the half hour).

 

[Snow1964]

Being reported that National Grid will announce a decision Monday afternoon

Weather is turning much colder, increasing demand and some French Nuclear stations still off, so French don’t want to export their electricity

 

[Baxenden Bank]

Being reported that National Grid will announce a decision Monday afternoon

Weather is turning much colder, increasing demand and some French Nuclear stations still off, so French don’t want to export their electricity

Postponed, sorry, no big discounts for those able to meet the terms and conditions.

Emergency energy plan for Tuesday postponed

National Grid has decided not to activate a scheme on Tuesday to help the UK avoid power cuts after being poised to do so.

It would have seen some households offered discounts on their electricity bills if they cut peak-time use.

The move followed a warning that Britain's energy supplies were looking tighter than usual this week.

Alerts are sent out automatically when expected supplies drop below a certain level.

But they do not mean that blackouts are likely, or that the situation is critical.

National Grid said it was "confident" it would be able to "manage margins and demand is not at risk".

It said two alerts had been issued and then cancelled on Monday, after forecasts projected a large drop in the amount of power that Britain will be able to import from France.

Such warnings are not unusual - around 12 have been issued and cancelled without issue in the last six years.

However, they have become more common this year due to the energy crisis, and the most recent notice was sent out last week.

In response, National Grid said earlier on Monday that it was considering whether to pay households across Britain to reduce their energy use to help out on Tuesday evening.

Under its Demand Flexibility Service (DFS), announced earlier this month, customers that have signed up could get discounts on their bills if they use less electricity in a given window of time.

In homes, that could mean delaying the use of a tumble-dryer or washing machine, or cooking dinner in the microwave rather than the oven.

A number of major suppliers are taking part, including Octopus and British Gas, but only customers that have an electricity smart meter can take part.

Around 14 million UK homes have an electricity smart meter.

The DFS has already been tested twice but has not yet run live.

Forecasts have projected that Britain's grid will struggle to rely on electricity generated by French nuclear power stations on Monday and Tuesday evening.

The lack of strong winds to power turbines has also affected how much power can be generated within the UK.

 

[brad465]

Being reported that National Grid will announce a decision Monday afternoon

Weather is turning much colder, increasing demand and some French Nuclear stations still off, so French don’t want to export their electricity

We are also in a lull for wind power until at least Thursday.

 

[Bald Rick]

so French don’t want to export their electricity

Well, they are this evening!

But it is true that whilst they are generating more by nuclear than they have since early March, it’s still a long way short of historical norms.

 

[Mogster]

According to Gridwatch there’s almost no wind currently. 0.3GW from UK installed 28GW or there abouts…

Hopefully this won’t continue.

 

[philosopher]

According to Gridwatch there’s almost no wind currently. 0.3GW from UK installed 28GW or there abouts…

Hopefully this won’t continue.

The weather this week is not looking good in terms of electricity. It is forecast to be cold, dull and calm, meaning both electricity consumption will be high but electricity production will be low.

Hopefully there are not too many weeks with this sort of weather over the coming few months.

 

[Pete_uk]

Good job we have the gas!

 

[Class 317]

Show's the need to get serious about energy storage both short and long-term.
It's good to hear that pumped hydro schemes are being developed with SSE deploying one over the next decade that will double capacity.

More smart tariffs and demand side management needs to be deployed as well to reduce peaks in demand.

Also it's noticeable that current offshore wind development is very much concentrated on the east and south east coasts in the North sra. Maybe it's time to look at deploying more on the west coast for better diversity of supply?

Also the interconnectors are showing their worth today and it's good to know more are in the pipeline which will also help deal with days like today with less wind.

 

[brad465]

According to Gridwatch there’s almost no wind currently. 0.3GW from UK installed 28GW or there abouts…

Hopefully this won’t continue.

Last week it was often in the 15-20GW range, and from Thursday wind appears to be picking up again with easterly winds, putting all the North Sea wind farms in pole position. We're only noticing this wind lull now because for most of the autumn wind power has been very reliable.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Indeed. We broke the record for wind generation last night, with over 20GW (I saw it at 20.48GW around 2200). We were also exporting power at near record rates - 5GW for most of the day and over 6GW at some times.

With another 2GW of wind coming on line each year for the next few years, situations like this are going to be more common.

Great but now we are at 0.27MW wind and were even importing at current max level from France earlier this evening and as a result NG have had to pay out upto £1500/MWh to secure generating capacity. Im all for renewables but its naivety to think we won't need some thermal generation back up for decades yet.

 

[Bald Rick]

Great but now we are at 0.27MW wind and were even importing at current max level from France earlier this evening and as a result NG have had to pay out upto £1500/MWh to secure generating capacity. Im all for renewables but it’s naivety to think we won't need some thermal generation back up for decades yet.

Agreed. Although the use of the fossil fuelled thermal back up will get progressively less.

In about 10-15 years time when we have something close to double the current wind power capacity, at least 2 new nukes, new interconnectors to europe, the X-Links Morocco facility, at least 150GWh of grid side pumped storage / battery capacity, and 15 million+ electric vehicles, most of which with vehicle to grid technology; we’ll only need fossil fuelled thermal stations in quantity for prolonged periods of windless weather in the darker half of the year. It will be a steady journey to that point.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Agreed. Although the use of the fossil fuelled thermal back up will get progressively less.

In about 10-15 years time when we have something close to double the current wind power capacity, at least 2 new nukes, new interconnectors to europe, the X-Links Morocco facility, at least 150GWh of grid side pumped storage / battery capacity, and 15 million+ electric vehicles, most of which with vehicle to grid technology; we’ll only need fossil fuelled thermal stations in quantity for prolonged periods of windless weather in the darker half of the year. It will be a steady journey to that point.

That x-links proposal is cloud cuckoo thinking to run a cable that far along the seabed that any bad actor could easily disable. Makes absolute sense to install a much solar as possible in the desert but more sensible to ship the energy into Southern Europe.
150GWh of storage capacity would have covered around 4 hours of todays demand let alone that energy demand could well be higher in ten years time with more EVs. So my view is we will need considerably more storage than this but how practical that will be given we only have about 15GWh now of battery and pumped storage is debatable so I still see that at least 10GW of CCGTs are going to be needed beyond 10 years.

 

[Bald Rick]

That x-links proposal is cloud cuckoo thinking to run a cable that far along the seabed that any bad actor could easily disable.

it’s certainly pushing the boundaries, but it looks like it’s going to happen. The cable factory has planning permission, the grid connection is approved (and planning consent imminent), and I can’t see any difficulty getting investors on board. Besides I’d say a cable in those waters is safer from harm than any of the multiple cables we have in the North Sea.

150GWh of storage capacity would have covered around 4 hours of todays demand let alone that energy demand could well be higher in ten years time with more EVs.

complete demand yes, but with the nukes, the connectors, x-links and some other smaller base load (hydro, waste to energy, etc) able to provide 15-20GW baseload then it’s nearer 10 hours.…

So my view is we will need considerably more storage than this

…but yes I agree.

Vehicle to Grid will be a big part of this. 15 million vehicles could, in theory, provide 1 TWh of capacity, which would keep the country going for a few days (assuming 15-20GW baseload as above). I know it’s not that simple, of course.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Vehicle to Grid will be a big part of this. 15 million vehicles could, in theory, provide 1 TWh of capacity, which would keep the country going for a few days (assuming 15-20GW baseload as above). I know it’s not that simple, of course.

V2G is interesting concept but i can see a number of issues that means certainty of outcome can't be taken for granted. Firstly if your very dependant on your EV for your livelihood and your in the know about the situation of energy demand you may choose not to plug in on nights of high demand as you may find the following morning half your charge has gone! There is also the risk you won't even be able to fully charge either as the LV distribution network is the weak link in the system as majority of it was never designed with every household drawing high levels of power simultaneously so to avoid expensive upgrades your smart meter will regulate how much power you get so again you may find yourself short of what you expected when you plugged in. So a lot of behavioural issues to overcome although the reality is we will just have to accept it if we are to achieve net zero and govt need to embark on a campaign to explain changes ahead so it gets readily accepted.

 

[Noddy]

Vehicle to Grid will be a big part of this. 15 million vehicles could, in theory, provide 1 TWh of capacity, which would keep the country going for a few days (assuming 15-20GW baseload as above). I know it’s not that simple, of course.

And that’s just cars. If you include commercial vehicles it gets even bigger. An interesting trial in San Diego is using school buses and bi-directional 60 KW DC fast chargers. They’re even being paid $2 per KW to export in grid emergencies.

San Diego Electric School Bus Puts Electricity Into The Grid

School District Launches Region's First “Car-to-Grid” Project Featuring Electric School Bus Capable of Sending Power to the Electric Grid

cleantechnica.com

Certainly places I’ve worked in the past often had numerous vans parked up for large chunks of the day and all night inc the evening peak (the vans were purely for transporting kit and people rather than a delivery service).

 

[philosopher]

That x-links proposal is cloud cuckoo thinking to run a cable that far along the seabed that any bad actor could easily disable. Makes absolute sense to install a much solar as possible in the desert but more sensible to ship the energy into Southern Europe.
150GWh of storage capacity would have covered around 4 hours of todays demand let alone that energy demand could well be higher in ten years time with more EVs. So my view is we will need considerably more storage than this but how practical that will be given we only have about 15GWh now of battery and pumped storage is debatable so I still see that at least 10GW of CCGTs are going to be needed beyond 10 years.

Biomass could potentially be used as a power source when wind and solar power generation is low. However the green credentials of biomass do appear to be somewhat questionable.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Biomass could potentially be used as a power source when wind and solar power generation is low. However the green credentials of biomass do appear to be somewhat questionable.

Drax and Lynemouth are generally on the system everyday already as the two biggest biomass generators there are a number of smaller ones as well as they are classified as renewables so get first call. Today though with wind negligible again we have several coal units on line and potentially they will have to call up the standby coal units tonight as well if imports from France aren't available in the peak.

NG have also indicated they will run a live test with Demand Flexibility Service tomorrow so be interesting if they push it down to consumer level or not.

 

[Bald Rick]

Today though with wind negligible again we have several coal units on line

There’s only two!

 

[158756]

Well, they are this evening!

But it is true that whilst they are generating more by nuclear than they have since early March, it’s still a long way short of historical norms.

Maybe the crunch has come sooner than expected, but this was always an entirely foreseeable danger of the UK "energy strategy". We have over the past decade run down our ability to generate our own power, most coal plants are gone, nuclear plants close with replacements still years away from completion or not even started. The plan when the wind doesn't blow has simply been to assume that the continent will have electricity going spare, even as they allow their own plants to age without replacement and transition further towards the same weather-dependent sources.

Future plans are only going to continue on the same path - more wind turbines, more interconnectors, the remaining coal plants will close soon, all the existing nuclear sites will close before Sizewell C is built, if it ever gets built, and even then Sizewell and Hinkley Point will only put nuclear capacity back to where it is now and less than for most of the last 40 years. Biomass will probably disappear one day now it's green credentials are coming under scrutiny. The Xlinks plan is madness - we will pay a fortune to move generation and jobs away from the UK, and will be permanently beholden to the generosity of the Moroccan government and the reliability of an extremely long, vulnerable and difficult to repair undersea cable.

 

[Noddy]

Future plans are only going to continue on the same path - more wind turbines, more interconnectors, the remaining coal plants will close soon, all the existing nuclear sites will close before Sizewell C is built, if it ever gets built, and even then Sizewell and Hinkley Point will only put nuclear capacity back to where it is now and less than for most of the last 40 years. Biomass will probably disappear one day now it's green credentials are coming under scrutiny. The Xlinks plan is madness - we will pay a fortune to move generation and jobs away from the UK, and will be permanently beholden to the generosity of the Moroccan government and the reliability of an extremely long, vulnerable and difficult to repair undersea cable.

Why will we pay a fortune? Solar and Wind are clearly and easily the cheapest form of generation. Yes there is the issue of what happens when the wind doesn’t blow but this is where various storage solutions will come in - batteries, pumped storage, hydrogen etc.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

There’s only two!

Ratcliffe has four x 500MW sets, West Burton still has 2x500MW sets available and Drax has 2x660MW sets available. The latter two have extensions to March 23 currently bought at huge cost but im sure GBRf were able to make a few quid restocking them with coal.

 

[Mogster]

Why will we pay a fortune? Solar and Wind are clearly and easily the cheapest form of generation. Yes there is the issue of what happens when the wind doesn’t blow but this is where various storage solutions will come in - batteries, pumped storage, hydrogen etc.

The supporting infrastructure for wind and solar is extremely expensive, as are the potential storage options.

 

[Noddy]

The supporting infrastructure for wind and solar is extremely expensive, as are the potential storage options.

And yet the Xlinks project with all its supporting infrastructure (far more than UK based projects) is viable at a strike price less than half of Hinkley…

I accept that there may be additional hidden costs associated with some of the storage issues, but we have gigawatts and potentially terawatts of storage coming online in the near future in our EVs and the cost of this is very marginal in the scheme of things from an infrastructure perspective.

I’d really like to see your working out that show wind and solar are ‘extremely expensive’.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

The supporting infrastructure for wind and solar is extremely expensive, as are the potential storage options.

Doubly expensive especially wind as its been built out without a properly coordinated plan to have supporting transmission infrastructure in place to move it to where demand is and all too often its paid to switch off and then NG needs to pay over the odds in the balancing market to get gas fired power stations to fire up. Either we take climate change seriously and have a nationally coordinated plan or we might as well go and dig up the rest of the coal we have and build more efficient coal stations and at least have certainty of supply.

 

[Noddy]

Doubly expensive especially wind as its been built out without a properly coordinated plan to have supporting transmission infrastructure in place to move it to where demand is and all too often its paid to switch off and then NG needs to pay over the odds in the balancing market to get gas fired power stations to fire up. Either we take climate change seriously and have a nationally coordinated plan or we might as well go and dig up the rest of the coal we have and build more efficient coal stations and at least have certainty of supply.

Where is your evidence for this?

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Where is your evidence for this?

NG ESO publish a monthly report explaining how much they have spent on balancing the system. You have to look at constraint costs (115m in Sept 22) to see the impact transmission restrictions are having on the ESO taking decisions to switch off wind (curtail is technical term) and replace lost output with gas (these units are largely the only ones that can flex output rapidly). This situation has arisen because wind farms are allowed to connect to the system without downstream transmission being reinforced. The grid operators know this but it takes years to get planning agreed to reinforce or build new transmission lines so, particularly in Scotland, they are playing catch up. Hence my view is that a national coordinated approach is what is necessary not a market lead free for all. Its not as bad as it was but costs have rocketed because of the high price of gas that isn't on dispatchable contracts.

See https://data.nationalgrideso.com/balancing/mbss/r/monthly_balancing_services_summary_(mbss)_sep-2022 page 27.

 

[Noddy]

NG ESO publish a monthly report explaining how much they have spent on balancing the system. You have to look at constraint costs (115m in Sept 22) to see the impact transmission restrictions are having on the ESO taking decisions to switch off wind (curtail is technical term) and replace lost output with gas (these units are largely the only ones that can flex output rapidly). This situation has arisen because wind farms are allowed to connect to the system without downstream transmission being reinforced. The grid operators know this but it takes years to get planning agreed to reinforce or build new transmission lines so, particularly in Scotland, they are playing catch up. Hence my view is that a national coordinated approach is what is necessary not a market lead free for all. Its not as bad as it was but costs have rocketed because of the high price of gas that isn't on dispatchable contracts.

See https://data.nationalgrideso.com/balancing/mbss/r/monthly_balancing_services_summary_(mbss)_sep-2022 page 27.

Oh I don’t deny that grid balancing happens. But some of that has nothing to do with wind and solar and it still doesn’t make the ‘extremely expensive’ wind and solar ‘doubly expensive’. How much more are we paying for wind and solar?

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Oh I don’t deny that grid balancing happens. But some of that has nothing to do with wind and solar and it still doesn’t make the ‘extremely expensive’ wind and solar ‘doubly expensive’. How much more are we paying for wind and solar?

OK my "doubly expensive" comment was a figure of speech to illuminate there are other hidden costs from intermittent renewables.

Also we aren't seeing the benefit from "cheap" renewables either. Im with Octopus who tell me i get 100% green energy so when i asked them why im paying so much for cheap renewables was told oh its not as simple as that as the most expensive generator set the price for everybody. These generators are largely gas which as we know costs a bloomin fortune now. So many pre CfD wind farms along with a couple who have opted out are absolutely creaming it currently hence the windfall tax on them. However, the system needs changing so we consumers reap the benefits of the huge subsidies we gifted renewables over the last decade.

 

[Bald Rick]

The supporting infrastructure for wind and solar is extremely expensive, as are the potential storage options.

can you explain that? Ie why supporting infrastructure for wind and solar is ‘extremely expensive’ compared to the cost of supporting infrastructure for thermal power stations?