New 4-tier system for England

[packermac]

The news conference will be to try (and fail) to explain his ineptitude over the border closures, and to attempt to keep the bog roll bandits at bay. (Andrex is made in Essex BTW so not affected by the border)

Perhaps you can explain how other countries closing their borders is the fault of the UK Government?, especially as the WHO said yesterday the new strain already exists in some of those countries.

 

[Trackman]

The news conference will be to try (and fail) to explain his ineptitude over the border closures, and to attempt to keep the bog roll bandits at bay. (Andrex is made in Essex BTW so not affected by the border)

It bet he goes on about Tier restrictions too, in my experience nobody is giving a stuff these days.

 

[adc82140]

Perhaps you can explain how other countries closing their borders is the fault of the UK Government?, especially as the WHO said yesterday the new strain already exists in some of those countries.

If the health secretary uses inflammatory language like "the virus is out of control" and constantly referring to it as a "mutant" rather than being more measured, then what did anyone expect other countries to do?

 

[Richard Scott]

If the health secretary uses inflammatory language like "the virus is out of control" and constantly referring to it as a "mutant" rather than being more measured, then what did anyone expect other countries to do?

He can't do much else, seems more people on this forum understand more about this than he does. Way out of his depth.

 

[joncombe]

He can't do much else, seems more people on this forum understand more about this than he does. Way out of his depth.

What needs to be answered, and urgently, is how much he knew about this new strain and when. I know someone stated at the conference it was identified in September. They may not have known it spread more easily then, but when did that come to light. Was it really Friday? Or was it earlier than that? If it was earlier this is very serious indeed as the WHO will want to know why they wern't notified as soon as it was known the rest of the world will be rightly furious with the UK.

If I'm honest, my gut feeling is that he knew earlier but time will prove it either way I hope.

 

[Envy123]

My town got off lucky with the tiers so far, but it seems like it wouldn't be for much longer? I have a feeling that it will be announced that it will go to Tier 4 too

 

[brad465]

According to the ZOE study there are currently 374,557 symptomatic infections estimated in the UK at the moment, having increased from 301,705 on the 13th December, when it stopped declining after the previous peak (they don't estimate asymptomatic so there could well be a lot more). In the space of 6-8 days they think it's gone from no change/slight decline to increasing by nearly 15,000 extra active infections per day (the last few days are usually revised in later updates), so I really doubt these restrictions will make much if any difference, particularly with Christmas day mixing still a thing for large parts of the country as things stand.

However schools being off could well make a difference short-term, plus the faster infections go up, the sooner it'll peak and go back down again.

 

[duncanp]

I can't help thinking there is an element of scaremongering by the government with statement such as "..mutant virus is out of control..." and "...tier 4 might be required until Easter..."

The idea seems to be to scare the public witless about the new strain of the virus, in the hope that they will comply with some of the rules, at least some of the time.

Then when the restrictions start to be lifted earlier than Easter, the government can take the credit.

 

[Baxenden Bank]

What needs to be answered, and urgently, is how much he knew about this new strain and when. I know someone stated at the conference it was identified in September. They may not have known it spread more easily then, but when did that come to light. Was it really Friday? Or was it earlier than that? If it was earlier this is very serious indeed as the WHO will want to know why they wern't notified as soon as it was known the rest of the world will be rightly furious with the UK.

If I'm honest, my gut feeling is that he knew earlier but time will prove it either way I hope.

Brazil knew of it in March, read it on Sky News website earlier, can't find the story at the minute.

 

[Bikeman78]

How's this for some perspective then?

So far, 66,500 Britons have died after becoming infected with coronavirus on the measure the Government uses - that's the equivalent of all the people in a town the size of Farnborough or Paignton dying. Plenty of them were not grannies - several hundred were NHS staff.

You can come out with all the pat phrases you like, along the lines of


or


but what do they actually mean? How about enlightening us to what such things would look like? And how they would rein in the current rapid spread of the virus?

Or are we just supposed to sit back and relax while thousands more people die during the year or so that it is being suggested it will take to vaccinate most of the UK population?

Even the Swedes have admitted their different approach is not working and are about to introduce restrictions looking a lot like those in other countries across Europe.

For a bit more perspective, 620,000 Britons die every year.

 

[adc82140]

plus the faster infections go up, the sooner it'll peak and go back down again.

Glad I'm not the only one thinking this. As 99% of infections will make a full recovery, this is the equivalent of 30,000 people a day getting both shots of a vaccine.

 

[Richard Scott]

Glad I'm not the only one thinking this. As 99% of infections will make a full recovery, this is the equivalent of 30,000 people a day getting both shots of a vaccine.

It has crossed my mind that if we're going to have these restrictions may as well keep the numbers up then rates will drop off sooner. Government only seem a interested in infections so we may as well have high numbers for next few weeks.

 

[Baxenden Bank]

Another news conference again today! For crying out loud!!! What is it now??? I can't take much more of this.

Things have to start getting better soon. This is an absolute joke. This is just wearing me down so much this is. I'm holding out as well as I can through all this in the hope that things will start getting progressively easier soon and normal life is back by April. If we get to April and this nonsense is still dragging on with still no end in sight, then I think I will just not be able to take it any longer, and call it a day with my life. That's how I feel.

Come on, you know the song, all join in.

One first tier of Christmas, my true love gave to me.....
Tier 4 on Saturday, another 8 to go.
Tier 13 involves inserting the whole tree somewhere, just like the fairy suffers the indignity of.

As an aside, I really do detest that song.

On a serious note, it may be best not to raise your hopes looking forward to any prospective relaxations, just to have those hopes dashed. Also, if you are following the news frequently - stop it. Look once a day and be despaired once, don't get it hourly. I looked forward to buses coming back - they didn't (or not fast enough), I looked forward to trains coming back - they didn't (or at least not without doom laden messaging and again not fast enough), I re-booked hotels and trains trips multiple times - none of them happened. There's always next year, and I spent the money saved on substantial, long-lasting things for the house, so I can actually look back and think 'coronavirus was **** but it paid for that laptop, smartphone, microwave, shoe bench, ottoman, dining table and nest of tables'.

 

[yorkie]

I have seen some posts in this thread which have made me very concerned for peoples' well-being; I have therefore created the following thread:

Online support group for people who are upset/anxious/angry/frustrated with Covid restrictions

(This is not for discussion in this thread please but just to make people aware of that thread, thanks )

 

[C J Snarzell]

My town got off lucky with the tiers so far, but it seems like it wouldn't be for much longer? I have a feeling that it will be announced that it will go to Tier 4 too

Yeah, only a matter of time before the new virus sweeps further north and everywhere else is plunged into Tier 4.

Tier 4 is a rebranded lockdown. Maybe the whole tiering will be changed again to some other fancy corporate nonscene in the New Year like -

Territory Alpha (Tier 1)
Territory Bravo (Tier 2)
Territory Charlie (Tier 3)
Territory Delta (Tier 4)

or maybe

Sector Green (Tier 1)
Sector Amber (Tier 2)
Sector Orange (Tier 3)
Sector Red (Tier 4)

I am sure there are government office jockeys being paid silly money somewhere to come up with all of this mumbo jumbo.

CJ

 

[Envy123]

Yeah, only a matter of time before the new virus sweeps further north and everywhere else is plunged into Tier 4.

I wonder what the government expected with such short notice and the London-centric economy and its huge commuter belt?

 

[Philip Elliott]

If there is a vaccine escape mutation, which is entirely possible, then the vaccine will have to be tweaked, which the developers have said is simple. Therefore a worst case scenario is a new vaccine every year, like the flu jab.

In practical terms, the flu mutates far quicker than this does. The R0 of flu is also significantly higher (something like 7 compared to Covid's 3-4). Yet even without the flu jab, you'd be unlucky to get it twice in one season.

The R0 of seasonal flu is 0.9-2.1, considerably lower than covid...

 

[yorkie]

The R0 of seasonal flu is 0.9-2.1, considerably lower than covid...

Is that the R0 of flu without any pre-existing immunity?

 

[DB]

I was in Leeds at lunch time (stopped off on the way to one of our offices) - busiest I've seen it for months in the city centre, and the trains I travelled on were no less busy than they've been in recent weeks (Northern / TPE). From what I saw of the XC and LNER ones, they were a good bit busier than they have been.

Does very much seem that a good proprortion of people are ignoring the scaremongering now.

 

[kristiang85]

One thing that really gets me is how Johnson is late for every single press conference. Again, it just shows utter contempt for everyone (even if he doesn't mean it).

 

[hwl]

Is that the R0 of flu without any pre-existing immunity?

Yes. The average of the last decade has been ~1.3, quite rare to get to "high" values around 2.

This is one of the reasons the government plans based on Flu went so wrong earlier in the year, they weren't expecting a high R0 value.
The NERVTAG estimated increases in R (not R0) of 0.4-0.9 effectively mean we are facing a new worse than average new flu strain but with the all restrictions and measures in place.

 

[ChrisC]

I can't help thinking there is an element of scaremongering by the government with statement such as "..mutant virus is out of control..." and "...tier 4 might be required until Easter..."

The idea seems to be to scare the public witless about the new strain of the virus, in the hope that they will comply with some of the rules, at least some of the time.

Then when the restrictions start to be lifted earlier than Easter, the government can take the credit.

Unfortunately it is scaring people. I’ve spoken to a number of elderly friends these last two day who are now absolutely terrified. They are not people who were frightened and locked themselves away during the first lockdown. They are people who were being sensible, keeping away from busy and crowded places, but they were getting out and about and going on walks in the country and even visiting small local shops. Now they are terrified of going anywhere out of their house because of this out of control mutant virus. It is frightening people who are already vulnerable and have had a difficult year without seeing members of their family and friends.

 

[DB]

Unfortunately it is scaring people. I’ve spoken to a number of elderly friends these last two day who are now absolutely terrified. They are not people who were frightened and locked themselves away during the first lockdown. They are people who were being sensible, keeping away from busy and crowded places, but they were getting out and about and going on walks in the country and even visiting small local shops. Now they are terrified of going anywhere out of their house because of this out of control mutant virus. It is frightening people who are already vulnerable and have had a difficult year without seeing members of their family and friends.

It's resulted in yet more polarisation in society - those who have had enough and will now just ignore restrictions, even if they were complying to some extent before, and those who are increasingly terrified. The long term damage which this causes is going to be considerable.

 

[6862]

Just seen this on the BBC Live News page:

PM: We can look forward to a different world by Easter

Sounds ominous - I wonder what devious plan he has to ruin the country even more by Easter?

 

[bramling]

Just seen this on the BBC Live News page:

PM: We can look forward to a different world by Easter

Sounds ominous - I wonder what devious plan he has to ruin the country even more by Easter?

Dread to think. Also Sky are making a thing of Vallance hinting that more restrictions are likely in due course.

 

[Mag_seven]

Just seen this on the BBC Live News page:

PM: We can look forward to a different world by Easter

Sounds ominous - I wonder what devious plan he has to ruin the country even more by Easter?

I'm rather hoping he means a return to normality by Easter!

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

Dread to think. Also Sky are making a thing of Vallance hinting that more restrictions are likely in due course.

Drat, you just got there before me! It's even on their Breaking News twitter account.

 

[DB]

Drat, you just got there before me! It's even on their Breaking News twitter account.

Ah, their usual formula - more threats.

 

[johntea]

They've managed to vaccinate 500,000 with the first dose in 2 weeks so if they carry on like that 13 million a year - 5-6 years to vaccinate everyone in the UK (just theory of course as there will never be 100%)

But of course there is the second dose so you can double that figure to 10-12 years!

I'll be interested to see how fast they ramp it up as at the moment it isn't happening very quickly and I'll be impressed at some form of normality by Christmas 2021 never mind easter!

 

[packermac]

Unfortunately it is scaring people. I’ve spoken to a number of elderly friends these last two day who are now absolutely terrified. They are not people who were frightened and locked themselves away during the first lockdown. They are people who were being sensible, keeping away from busy and crowded places, but they were getting out and about and going on walks in the country and even visiting small local shops. Now they are terrified of going anywhere out of their house because of this out of control mutant virus. It is frightening people who are already vulnerable and have had a difficult year without seeing members of their family and friends.

So are the 20 countries (so far) that have closed their borders to us just scaring their residents as well then?