New DfT rail usage figures, big increase

[Bald Rick]

Whilst I'm aure this is true in some areas, I'm not aware of longer trains on the Portsmouth Direct or New Line Guildford.

Well, no, but since 2019 more vehicles (and/or higher capacity vehicles) have come to Anglia, c2c, LNER, Great Western, EMR, TfW, TPE, WMT, Merseyrail, and Avanti. I want to say Cross Country too, but I think that’s in the balance for now - it will be true from May. I could argue Northern too.

Public transport spending is way too low considering what should be a transport policy aimed at encouraging modal shift, especially for environmental reasons.

From the Modern Railways editorial this month:

”Since 2015/16, governments have spent in the order of £74billion over nine years on rail projects and upgrade.”

and

”… rail gets a far better deal from Government than one might suspect. £27billion of a total transport budget of £44 billion - a whopping 70% of DfT expenditure”.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

I seem to recall an aspiration - maybe a "standard" for Scotrail to aim for a maximum of a 10 min stand ! ...

It can be problematic in titivating the peak crush - hence my encouragement of AC services starting at Watford Junction and Tring starters - reducing the need for peak services starting at Bletchley , MK or Northampton (whilst giving the latter a decent service not crushed out by shorter distance travellers)

Living in St Albans , I always thought a few peak fast starters (neccesitating turning out to the fast lines at the first opportunity) , would have been transformational in busting some of the very worst peak crush - nice empty train to swallow up the hordes) - rather than everything coming from at worse Bedford - Luton semi-fast services quite popular in any case , with some chance of a seat.

The 130% requirement did not apply to Inter City services - pause for hollow laughter for say Reading (and doubless others)

Last but not least - the PSR* imposed by the DfT was always a constraint in making radical or semi-radical changes , certainly more than 6 months to offer, deliberate and process.

*(Passenger Service Requirements - or in some cases Service Level Commitment)

 

[Bald Rick]

Living in St Albans , I always thought a few peak fast starters (neccesitating turning out to the fast lines at the first opportunity) , would have been transformational in busting some of the very worst peak crush - nice empty train to swallow up the hordes) - rather than everything coming from at worse Bedford - Luton semi-fast services quite popular in any case , with some chance of a seat.

The St Albans issue is now largely solved by the pairing of up ‘fast’ trains in the morning high peak. The first one of each pair is all stations from Bedford (in one case a Flitwick starter), and they are busy - everyone gets on but there’s usually about 7-800 standing Tuesday - Thursday. The second of the pair 6/7 minutes later all skip the airport and Harlington on their way from Bedford, plus one of Leagrave or Flitwick. Thus they arrive at St Albans with a handful of seats but plenty of standing room. On Fridays a seat is almost guaranteed on these.

 

[Skipness]

It’s still there, albeit varies depending on the rolling stock.

Full details via the link below, lots of info there but the key passage is:

Rail passenger numbers and crowding statistics: notes and definitions

www.gov.uk

Try travelling between New Street and Cheltenham with pax making their way to and from the Cheltenham Festival race goers in a short Voyager.

 

[The Planner]

Try travelling between New Street and Cheltenham with pax making their way to and from the Cheltenham Festival race goers in a short Voyager.

Yes, but that isn't a consistent thing, that is a one off every year.

 

[Bald Rick]

Try travelling between New Street and Cheltenham with pax making their way to and from the Cheltenham Festival race goers in a short Voyager.

What do you suggest?

 

[12LDA28C]

That said, the growth in peak demand still has quite a geographic component -- not all lines are back to 91% of pre-Covid levels. SWR, Chiltern and GW don't seem to be too full at all, overall!

This is certainly not the case if the comments on social media are anything to go by with many Chiltern customers venting their frustration on a regular basis at not being able to get a seat. Indeed Chiltern are making a huge effort to acquire some new(er) stock in order to increase capacity across all their routes.

 

[Taunton]

[Split ticketing] That’s was happening long before the pandemic though.

Split ticketing before the pandemic was the province of geeks, and members here. What has happened is it has spread into mainstream usage. Our company's corporate travel agent's system now does this automatically, when I ask for a ticket to Manchester and back it is only when getting the tickets out of the machine at departure with a single collection reference that I get a whole slew of them, it having done split ticketing.

 

[david1212]

Try travelling between New Street and Cheltenham with pax making their way to and from the Cheltenham Festival race goers in a short Voyager.

Yes, but that isn't a consistent thing, that is a one off every year.

Directly yes but are there details anywhere of the number of services that do run beyond 100% seated capacity
- Birmingham <> Bristol
- Birmingham <> Derby
- Derby <> Sheffield
- Birmingham <> Reading
- Reading <> Southampton

If so it will be interesting to see the change for June - September

Combined with the ticket price the current demand in excess of capacity discourages discretionary travel.

... Chiltern ... don't seem to be too full at all, overall!

Some services can be rammed without an event at Wembley. Southbound 100% after Leamington then standing Banbury onwards so over an hour. Northbound High Wycombe is ~30 minutes & Bicester North ~50 minutes.

 

[MikeWM]

Directly yes but are there details anywhere of the number of services that do run beyond 100% seated capacity
- Birmingham <> Bristol
- Birmingham <> Derby
- Derby <> Sheffield
- Birmingham <> Reading
- Reading <> Southampton

It is notable that so many of the routes that I try to avoid (because they are always too busy) involve Birmingham. As well as the ones you mention, Birmingham <> Leicester and Birmingham <> Manchester are also usually way over-capacity. It's a very old debate, but it would be nice if there was any plan whatever to improve capacity on these routes in the future. It seems very likely that there is quite a lot of demand on these axes that the railway isn't satisfying.

 

[Bald Rick]

It is notable that so many of the routes that I try to avoid (because they are always too busy) involve Birmingham. As well as the ones you mention, Birmingham <> Leicester and Birmingham <> Manchester are also usually way over-capacity. It's a very old debate, but it would be nice if there was any plan whatever to improve capacity on these routes in the future. It seems very likely that there is quite a lot of demand on these axes that the railway isn't satisfying.

Birmingham - Leicester had capacity increases two years ago with the transfer in of centre cars for the 170s. Before that there was a lot of 2 car operation.

Birmingham - Manchester sees some longer trains from May, with the extra Voyagers being used across the Xc network.

 

[Wilts Wanderer]

The fact that Voyagers on long distance workings forms the entire Birmingham-Manchester service is pretty appalling. Its an electrified route linking the centre of the West Midlands with the centre of the North West in about 90 minutes and yet we provide overcrowded 4-car diesel trains. At the very least there should be an hourly 8-car EMU of Desiro standard or better, to provide a more attractive backbone to the service, perhaps allowing one of the XC paths to run via Crewe instead.

 

[MikeWM]

Birmingham - Leicester had capacity increases two years ago with the transfer in of centre cars for the 170s. Before that there was a lot of 2 car operation.

Probably I should have said 'improve capacity to the level that matches demand'. Yes, it is a bit better than before but still needs a lot more.

Birmingham - Manchester sees some longer trains from May, with the extra Voyagers being used across the Xc network.

Equally I suspect this will be a case of 'better but nowhere near enough'.

 

[dk1]

Split ticketing before the pandemic was the province of geeks, and members here. What has happened is it has spread into mainstream usage. Our company's corporate travel agent's system now does this automatically, when I ask for a ticket to Manchester and back it is only when getting the tickets out of the machine at departure with a single collection reference that I get a whole slew of them, it having done split ticketing.

From what my conductor colleagues told me years before the pandemic it was far more than geeks and those that frequent this forum. It’s just it’s become even more mainstream thanks to online advances.

 

[BlueLeanie]

This is certainly not the case if the comments on social media are anything to go by with many Chiltern customers venting their frustration on a regular basis at not being able to get a seat. Indeed Chiltern are making a huge effort to acquire some new(er) stock in order to increase capacity across all their routes.

It's the reality. I was in the office every day last week and I didn't get a seat all week.

Actually, got the last seat in the office too. After all the bluster about coming back to the office there's now hand-wringing because we're short of desks on Wednesdays and the milk is finished by 8am.

 

[SteelWeelApeal]

Well, no, but since 2019 more vehicles (and/or higher capacity vehicles) have come to Anglia, c2c, LNER, Great Western, EMR, TfW, TPE, WMT, Merseyrail, and Avanti. I want to say Cross Country too, but I think that’s in the balance for now - it will be true from May. I could argue Northern too.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but GWR and TPE have had a significant reduction in rolling stock since 2019, not an increase. Although they did have an increase running up to 2019.

 

[Bald Rick]

Correct me if I’m wrong, but GWR and TPE have had a significant reduction in rolling stock since 2019, not an increase. Although they did have an increase running up to 2019.

TPEs new fleet only started coming in during the 2nd half of 2019. Yes they lost the 170s, and the Mk5s (which werent ever in full service) but AIUI they have a net increase.

 

[BlueLeanie]

From what my conductor colleagues told me years before the pandemic it was far more than geeks and those that frequent this forum. It’s just it’s become even more mainstream thanks to online advances.

Haven't good ticket office staff always sold the best value tickets, including split ticketing?

I recall being advised to split at Banbury by ticket staff over 20 years ago. Likewise purchasing a single to London and a Network Railcard single to Haddenham in the evenings.

 

[Krokodil]

I suspect the proliferation of split-ticketing might have slightly inflated the statistics.

Passenger journey figures might be. Passenger km figures aren't. The latter were 6% down in July-September 24 versus the same period in 2019 compared with the former's 3% so it's not actually that big a change (source: https://dataportal.orr.gov.uk/media/s5bpixik/passenger-rail-usage-jul-sep-2024.pdf - new edition due out next week)

Without going into detail, the numbers I see regular show that the vehicle miles provided as a % compared to 2019 is several percent higher than the % of services run compared to 2019.

Really? This is from the ORR's July-September report:

Passenger vehicle kilometres include both the distance covered by locomotives and the
carriages they transport. In the latest quarter (1 July to 30 September 2024), there were
817 million passenger vehicle kilometres operated. This is an 8% increase on the 757
million kilometres in the same quarter in the previous year. However, this is still slightly
below pre-pandemic levels, at 96% relative to the 855 million five years ago (July to
September 2019).

The fact that Voyagers on long distance workings forms the entire Birmingham-Manchester service is pretty appalling. Its an electrified route linking the centre of the West Midlands with the centre of the North West in about 90 minutes and yet we provide overcrowded 4-car diesel trains. At the very least there should be an hourly 8-car EMU of Desiro standard or better, to provide a more attractive backbone to the service, perhaps allowing one of the XC paths to run via Crewe instead.

If only we had a project to build a new line between Birmingham and Manchester (not to mention Leeds) that would have cut 48 minutes (and 69 for Leeds) from journey times while guaranteeing a 200m train every half hour.

 

[dk1]

Haven't good ticket office staff always sold the best value tickets, including split ticketing?

I recall being advised to split at Banbury by ticket staff over 20 years ago. Likewise purchasing a single to London and a Network Railcard single to Haddenham in the evenings.

Yes but many don't have the time, knowledge or simply wouldn't bother.

 

[Wilts Wanderer]

If only we had a project to build a new line between Birmingham and Manchester (not to mention Leeds) that would have cut 48 minutes (and 69 for Leeds) from journey times while guaranteeing a 200m train every half hour.

Quite!

 

[Krokodil]

Haven't good ticket office staff always sold the best value tickets, including split ticketing?

They may have known the common ones but no human can try all possible combinations, especially once Advance tickets enter the equation

 

[jon0844]

The St Albans issue is now largely solved by the pairing of up ‘fast’ trains in the morning high peak. The first one of each pair is all stations from Bedford (in one case a Flitwick starter), and they are busy - everyone gets on but there’s usually about 7-800 standing Tuesday - Thursday. The second of the pair 6/7 minutes later all skip the airport and Harlington on their way from Bedford, plus one of Leagrave or Flitwick. Thus they arrive at St Albans with a handful of seats but plenty of standing room. On Fridays a seat is almost guaranteed on these.

I haven't travelled from there in the peak for ages but do a lot of people use the slow trains that start there, or opt to squeeze on the faster services no matter what?

 

[Bald Rick]

Really? This is from the ORR's July-September report:

Yes, really.

Compared to 2019, Vehicle km % (96%) is higher than number of services % (94%).

ie on average we are running trains with more vehicles now than in 2019.

Also, average train carriage length is longer - think all those 24m coaches on GA that replaced 20m coaches, 23m coaches replacing sprinters and pacers on Northern, 26m IEPs replacing 23m coaches etc. etc.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 14 Mar 2025 ==

I haven't travelled from there in the peak for ages but do a lot of people use the slow trains that start there, or opt to squeeze on the faster services no matter what?

Not many get the stoppers - perhaps 60-80 per train, quite a few get the semi fasts (maybe 100-120), but more often than not to change at West Hamsptead. Usually 300-500 boarding each fast. (Fridays Excepted).

 

[Sealink]

The fact that Voyagers on long distance workings forms the entire Birmingham-Manchester service is pretty appalling. Its an electrified route linking the centre of the West Midlands with the centre of the North West in about 90 minutes and yet we provide overcrowded 4-car diesel trains. At the very least there should be an hourly 8-car EMU of Desiro standard or better, to provide a more attractive backbone to the service, perhaps allowing one of the XC paths to run via Crewe instead.

And CrossCountry seem to be actively promoting Birmingham - Manchester. Which is their wont but if there is an overcrowding issue it seems odd.

Trains from Manchester to Birmingham | CrossCountry

Enjoy great savings on advance tickets on trains from Manchester to Birmingham with CrossCountry. Find out more about the route on our website.

www.crosscountrytrains.co.uk

 

[Krokodil]

Compared to 2019, Vehicle km % (96%) is higher than number of services % (94%).

ie on average we are running trains with more vehicles now than in 2019.

So that's still a reduction in capacity since 2019, it's just that trains are marginally longer to partially compensate for losses in frequency.

Also, average train carriage length is longer - think all those 24m coaches on GA that replaced 20m coaches, 23m coaches replacing sprinters and pacers on Northern, 26m IEPs replacing 23m coaches etc. etc.

Not all trains are equal in this respect. 197s are badly laid out and taken individually represent a reduction in seated capacity versus the 175s and 158s they're replacing, though the number of vehicles will eventually represent a 50% capacity increase despite this. 805s however are much more space-efficient than the Voyagers they replaced.

I don't suppose that there is a "seat km" statistic anywhere?

 

[Wilts Wanderer]

ie on average we are running trains with more vehicles now than in 2019.

What happens if the Elizabeth Line is removed from the calculation?

 

[infobleep]

Well, no, but since 2019 more vehicles (and/or higher capacity vehicles) have come to Anglia, c2c, LNER, Great Western, EMR, TfW, TPE, WMT, Merseyrail, and Avanti. I want to say Cross Country too, but I think that’s in the balance for now - it will be true from May. I could argue Northern too.

Alas out of those the only one I regularly use is Great Western Railway and then only on the North Downs Line.

That line has seen the Redhill only train be extended to Gatwick Airport for most hours, 7 days aweek, engineering works notwithstanding. This means 2 trains an hour to Gatwick Airport for most hours, and that is fantastic. So I have seen some improvements.

 

[Bald Rick]

So that's still a reduction in capacity since 2019,

Yes, but I didn’t say it wasn’t.

I don't suppose that there is a "seat km" statistic anywhere?

Sadly not that I can find. Individual TOCs do them I think.

What happens if the Elizabeth Line is removed from the calculation?

I don’t know, but because they run relatively short routes, and the 345s were well in service in 2019, I don’t think it will make much difference on the national stats.

 

[Meerkat]

If some days are at 98% of 5 years ago (pre covid) then surely there must be pressure to restore some of the cut services

Depends…
If commuters are significantly down but leisure is up then you might still need fewer trains - the extra leisure passengers are just occupying seats that ran around empty off peak pre-Covid.