North Wales Main Line Electrification

[76020]

There was Transport Questions in the House of Commons today and one of the questions asked was from Rob Roberts who is a independent MP from Delyn to the Transport Minister Richard Holden which was "When will the North Wales line get electrified", the Transport Minister completely by passed the question, nothing new there then. You can watch the brief exchange here https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m001l8rz/house-of-commons-transport-questions at 55:16
Personally at the moment I am looking at any new Rail Electrification this way, no more electrification schemes will get authorised for the time being, but also will any current projects that have been given the go ahead, i.e. The MML electrification, will be cut back.
If any rail electrification gets the go ahead in the near future than I would have thought the Didcot-Oxford and Chippenham/Bristol Parkway-Bristol Temple Meads would be near the top of the list, not the North Wales Main Line.

 

[zwk500]

North Wales will have to wait for a very long time. I would expect Bristol Parkway-Bristol TM and Didcot-Oxford first (Bath city council are apparently against electrification until everything around them has been done so they get 100% electric operation). MML will reach Derby and Nottingham, Sheffield is looking more likely now but could still be cut back.

I personally don't see electrification on North Wales ever getting beyond Llandudno without an Irish Sea tunnel, tbh. I can see Warrington-Chester-Llandudno being wired for the Manchester trains, with the Mickle Trafford-Manchester line being BEMU or electrified, and Crewe-Chester joining in to fill in the gap for Avanti, but the potential costs of Conwy Bridge, the tunnels east of Bangor, and Britannia Bridge electrification (although the Britannia Bridge may be relatively straightforward as I think the vertical clearance isn't too bad) would kill it for the limited traffic on offer when BEMUs aren't far off the range needed if you have a short stretch of wire and charging point at Holyhead.

 

[76020]

North Wales will have to wait for a very long time. I would expect Bristol Parkway-Bristol TM and Didcot-Oxford first (Bath city council are apparently against electrification until everything around them has been done so they get 100% electric operation). MML will reach Derby and Nottingham, Sheffield is looking more likely now but could still be cut back.

I personally don't see electrification on North Wales ever getting beyond Llandudno without an Irish Sea tunnel, tbh. I can see Warrington-Chester-Llandudno being wired for the Manchester trains, with the Mickle Trafford-Manchester line being BEMU or electrified, and Crewe-Chester joining in to fill in the gap for Avanti, but the potential costs of Conwy Bridge, the tunnels east of Bangor, and Britannia Bridge electrification (although the Britannia Bridge may be relatively straightforward as I think the vertical clearance isn't too bad) would kill it for the limited traffic on offer when BEMUs aren't far off the range needed if you have a short stretch of wire and charging point at Holyhead.

There is a big problem with any rail tunnel from England to Ireland, the Irish Rail gauge which is 5ft 3ins, the standard gauge is 4ft 8.5ins. We have had Stranraer and Larne rail tunnel talked about in the last few years, did anybody realise that any through trains from Scotland to say Belfast would not be possible.

 

[zwk500]

There is a big problem with any rail tunnel from England to Ireland, the Irish Rail gauge which is 5ft 3ins, the standard gauge is 4ft 8.5ins.

Indeed. Also signalling system incompatabilites etc. And it's simply not going to happen in the current economic and political climate, so I won't speculate too far off topic.

We have had Stranraer and Larne rail tunnel talked about in the last few years, did anybody realise that any through trains from Scotland to say Belfast would not be possible.

Yes, plenty of people. But Boris didn't care for trifling formalities like rail gauge.

 

[HSTEd]

There is a big problem with any rail tunnel from England to Ireland, the Irish Rail gauge which is 5ft 3ins, the standard gauge is 4ft 8.5ins. We have had Stranraer and Larne rail tunnel talked about in the last few years, did anybody realise that any through trains from Scotland to say Belfast would not be possible.

Well the obvious solutions would be to just dual gauge the track or buy talgo-type gauge changing rolling stock.

Either option would cost negligible amounts next to the cost of building the crossing.

Of all the problems with such a scheme, I think it is barely a footnote.

But once again, wildly off topic.


EDIT:
On topic - Given the total collapse of the mainline 25kV electrification programme, I doubt the NWML will be electrified in our lifetimes.
It will be battery trains or closure

 

[cle]

There is no demand for a rail tunnel to Ireland. Zero. Honestly, the fairly humdrum things which get shot down around here, like an extra tph, and people can talk about this with a straight face.

North Wales - very tricky and low priority, as mentioned. I could see Chester seeing wires to Warrington first, even before Crewe. Then maybe Llandudno and Halton.

 

[zwk500]

There is no demand for a rail tunnel to Ireland. Zero. Honestly, the fairly humdrum things which get shot down around here, like an extra tph, and people can talk about this with a straight face.

There's not zero demand, Holyhead is the second busiest Ro-Ro port in the UK and London-Dublin is one of the busiest air routes in Europe. However the costs are astronomical and the business case somewhere between laughably terrible and terribly laughable. We'll have Star Trek transporters before an Irish Sea tunnel becomes viable.

North Wales - very tricky and low priority, as mentioned. I could see Chester seeing wires to Warrington first, even before Crewe. Then maybe Llandudno and Halton.

Agreed.

On a side note, does anybody (@Bald Rick?) know if Conwy Bridge and the Tunnels east of Bangor would be major problems or if they're actually not too bad?

 

[GRALISTAIR]

……..and the business case somewhere between laughably terrible and terribly laughable.

Brilliant- may I use this quote?

 

[cle]

There's not zero demand, Holyhead is the second busiest Ro-Ro port in the UK and London-Dublin is one of the busiest air routes in Europe. However the costs are astronomical and the business case somewhere between laughably terrible and terribly laughable. We'll have Star Trek transporters before an Irish Sea tunnel becomes viable.

There are of course many people and objects that travel between the UK and Ireland. But they are dotted all over. Nothing which would add up to a tunnel.

What % of London-Dublin is via train and ferry in this century! It takes forever. Even from the NW. Ryanair have many flights from every British airport to Dublin for buttons, in under an hour.

 

[zwk500]

Brilliant- may I use this quote?

By all means

There are of course many people and objects that travel between the UK and Ireland. But they are dotted all over. Nothing which would add up to a tunnel.

What % of London-Dublin is via train and ferry in this century! It takes forever. Even from the NW. Ryanair have many flights from every British airport to Dublin for buttons, in under an hour.

Did you read the whole of my post?

 

[GRALISTAIR]

What % of London-Dublin is via train and ferry in this century! It takes forever. Even from the NW. Ryanair have many flights from every British airport to Dublin for buttons, in under an hour.

Exactly. Unless short haul flights get banned or taxed/priced out of existence, that is your main and low cost competition right there. Tunnel WILL NOT get built.

 

[tomuk]

London-Dublin is one of the busiest air routes in Europe.

Pre Covid Heathrow to Dublin was Rank #10 post covid it is 47/48th

 

[BrianW]

There was Transport Questions in the House of Commons today and one of the questions asked was from Rob Roberts who is a independent MP from Delyn to the Transport Minister Richard Holden which was "When will the North Wales line get electrified", the Transport Minister completely by passed the question, nothing new there then. You can watch the brief exchange here https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m001l8rz/house-of-commons-transport-questions at 55:16
Personally at the moment I am looking at any new Rail Electrification this way, no more electrification schemes will get authorised for the time being, but also will any current projects that have been given the go ahead, i.e. The MML electrification, will be cut back.
If any rail electrification gets the go ahead in the near future than I would have thought the Didcot-Oxford and Chippenham/Bristol Parkway-Bristol Temple Meads would be near the top of the list, not the North Wales Main Line.

Absolute discourtesy on the part of the minister to both the constituency MP questioner and to his constituents. Not only a non-answer to a plain question, which ought to have been answered by the Secretary of State or the RAIL minister (both of whom were 'in their place') but to suggest fairly directly that the roads of North Wales were more worthy of attention.

 

[cle]

By all means

Did you read the whole of my post?

I did. But you did say this:

I personally don't see electrification on North Wales ever getting beyond Llandudno without an Irish Sea tunnel, tbh.

which I think is a 'never' - whereas one day, a Welsh Govt might stump up. And Bangor is fairly busy (and getting the Manchester service I think)

 

[Bald Rick]

On a side note, does anybody (@Bald Rick?) know if Conwy Bridge and the Tunnels east of Bangor would be major problems or if they're actually not too bad?

I don’t know, it depends on the vertical clearance within the bridge.

 

[zwk500]

I did. But you did say this:

which I think is a 'never' - whereas one day, a Welsh Govt might stump up. And Bangor is fairly busy (and getting the Manchester service I think)

I personally think batteries and charging points for Bangor and Holyhead will be viable before OLE gets out as far as Bangor. Unless there was some other reason to rebuild the infrastructure (W10/12 or Double-decker trains) that made electrification part of the project. And I don't see double-decker or W12 traffic being needed to Holyhead for a long, long time.

 

[stuu]

On a side note, does anybody (@Bald Rick?) know if Conwy Bridge and the Tunnels east of Bangor would be major problems or if they're actually not too bad?

I looked up a diagram of the Conwy bridge when this was discussed a couple of years ago. They are quite big, they have a minimum internal height of 5.5m (from memory) as built, rising to the centre, although they may have been altered since

 

[Meerkat]

Isn't the NWML a handful of short trains an hour? Doesn't sound much of a business case for a lot of miles of electrification.
The only bit I would have thought would be any kind of priority would be Crewe/Warrington to Wrexham. I would say Runcorn to Chester too but the Liverpool trains are going to carry on beyond so that would have limited benefit.

 

[popeter45]

There's not zero demand, Holyhead is the second busiest Ro-Ro port in the UK and London-Dublin is one of the busiest air routes in Europe. However the costs are astronomical and the business case somewhere between laughably terrible and terribly laughable. We'll have Star Trek transporters before an Irish Sea tunnel becomes viable.

honestly Holyhead to Dublin may be one of the few routes if any were a Train ferry would be a better option than a fixed link

 

[zwk500]

honestly Holyhead to Dublin may be one of the few routes if any were a Train ferry would be a better option than a fixed link

No it wouldn't. The ferry takes 3 hours and would require approximately an hours shunting time on top (30 minutes at each end), a train would take in the region of 30-40 minutes. Also a fixed link would basically be able to have it's own self-contained standard gauge network like Eurotunnel with a gauge-transfer yard for freight while a Train ferry would mean dual-gauge or gauge conversion of the tracks to the dockyard (if they haven't been ripped up).
People who want to go by foot will fly, people who want to have a car can drive or Fly+hire. It's only people who are particularly against flying, or particularly in favour of trains, that go by train.

 

[BrianW]

honestly Holyhead to Dublin may be one of the few routes if any were a Train ferry would be a better option than a fixed link

Sir Peter Hendy's 2021 Union Connectivity Review made just 9 mentions of Holyhead (after all it links to the RoI which is part of the EU and not UK): https://assets.publishing.service.g...27/union-connectivity-review-final-report.pdf

It refers to the North Wales line as the main link between Wales and England and speaks of links to Liverpool and Manchester rather than to Birmingham or London or South or East Coast ports.

Perhaps it might have a future as part of an extended Northern Powerhouse below Sheffield and Hull.

IIUC trade flows from RoI via Holyhead are already reduced as more flows direct to and from the EU without needing UK.

It's hard to see the Holyhead route as worthy of significant early development.

 

[popeter45]

Sir Peter Hendy's 2021 Union Connectivity Review made just 9 mentions of Holyhead (after all it links to the RoI which is part of the EU and not UK): https://assets.publishing.service.g...27/union-connectivity-review-final-report.pdf

It refers to the North Wales line as the main link between Wales and England and speaks of links to Liverpool and Manchester rather than to Birmingham or London or South or East Coast ports.

Perhaps it might have a future as part of an extended Northern Powerhouse below Sheffield and Hull.

IIUC trade flows from RoI via Holyhead are already reduced as more flows direct to and from the EU without needing UK.

It's hard to see the Holyhead route as worthy of significant early development.

okay to reframe a bit, of all the option for a rail link a train ferry would be the cheapest if you wanted to increase freight flow or wanted a political route like a Euston-Belfast sleeper train akin to the Rome to Scilly night trains

 

[zwk500]

okay to reframe a bit, of all the option for a rail link a train ferry would be the cheapest if you wanted to increase freight flow or wanted a political route like a Euston-Belfast sleeper train akin to the Rome to Scilly night trains

Being cheapest often means being the worst value though. Freight travels on HGVs, the NWML isn't Swapbody or Container cleared (and most trade from Ireland won't be at trainload volumes to single distribution points), and there is absolutely zero political demand for overnight trains between london and NI when a flight is an hour and a half at most in the morning.

 

[cle]

Isn't the NWML a handful of short trains an hour? Doesn't sound much of a business case for a lot of miles of electrification.
The only bit I would have thought would be any kind of priority would be Crewe/Warrington to Wrexham. I would say Runcorn to Chester too but the Liverpool trains are going to carry on beyond so that would have limited benefit.

This is my thought. Chester - Warrington - Victoria is more of a mainline, in service these days, given the Leeds. Plus the Halton service giving Frodsham and Helsby more action - that could happily connect into a wired Wrexham. Possibly that Leeds shifts to via Huddersfield if it all got wired.

And with bi-mode stock around the place, hopefully, one day these types of routes could utilize wires where they exist. Newport-Cardiff is another short stretch on the Liverpool split service. And wiring to Llandudno would cover a piece also.

Rome to Scilly night trains

That would be quite the ferry ride

 

[RobShipway]

I doubt that electrification will go beyond Chester in my lifetime. But you have to remember that at Chester, you will have the problem of the nearby third rail dc of the Merseyside Wirral Line within the station that could effect the workings of the AC OHLE, as has been discussed in other threads on the subject of electrification.

I like @zwk500 think that it is more like you will have charging points at Holyhead, Bangor, Llandudno and possibly Llandudno Junction with trains being BEMU trains aka something similar to class 777. Electrification will I have no doubt remain stopped at Crewe, where it is currently.

 

[Philip]

No it wouldn't. The ferry takes 3 hours and would require approximately an hours shunting time on top (30 minutes at each end), a train would take in the region of 30-40 minutes. Also a fixed link would basically be able to have it's own self-contained standard gauge network like Eurotunnel with a gauge-transfer yard for freight while a Train ferry would mean dual-gauge or gauge conversion of the tracks to the dockyard (if they haven't been ripped up).
People who want to go by foot will fly, people who want to have a car can drive or Fly+hire. It's only people who are particularly against flying, or particularly in favour of trains, that go by train.

A lot of people tend to travel by ship from UK to Dublin; the ships still get very busy with passengers and if you book in advance you can take advantage of cheaper rail/sail advance tickets.

 

[Meerkat]

A lot of people tend to travel by ship from UK to Dublin; the ships still get very busy with passengers and if you book in advance you can take advantage of cheaper rail/sail advance tickets.

How many is 'a lot', particularly in comparison to flying?

 

[D365]

But you have to remember that at Chester, you will have the problem of the nearby third rail dc of the Merseyside Wirral Line within the station that could effect the workings of the AC OHLE, as has been discussed in other threads on the subject of electrification.]

It's not an insurmountable problem - that's what engineers are paid to deal with...

 

[zwk500]

It's not an insurmountable problem - that's what engineers are paid to deal with...

Indeed - And given how Chester P7 is used The OLE may even end before the third rail begins with some insulated joints in between. Even if the whole Chester area with triangle was wired, the short element of Merseyrail third rail wouldn't be any worse than any existing interface. Of course, with 777s now having batteries it may be easier to rip up the third rail anyway.

 

[Meerkat]

My crayons still want the 777s to go through to Crewe anyway.....