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Nottingham to Cardiff potential upgrade

CTS1990

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Modern Railways reports that surplus Class 68s could be deployed on Nottingham to Cardiff services. It's a shame this route has never been properly regarded as 'InterCity style' by XC. It feels more like a second-rate regional service given it is operated by 170s.

Is this likely to happen...or just general speculation?
 
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Class172

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For the avoidance of doubt, the section alluded to (p12) is quoted below:

“With TransPennine Express having confirmed it intends to stand down its loco-hauled Nova 3 fleet of Class 68s/Mk 5a coaches, various options are being considered for the future deployment of this fleet. While it is thought a move to Chiltern Railways is currently the favoured option, replacing the Mk3 loco-hauled coaches there, it is understood CrossCountry is considering taking on the fleet, which could be deployed on Nottingham to Cardiff services to provide an enhanced inter-city style offering on this important route.”
 

AdamWW

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Hmm.

So Cross Country get rid of their HSTs then take on another small fleet?
 

JonathanH

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So Cross Country get rid of their HSTs then take on another small fleet?
Indeed, it doesn't appear to make sense at all. Just seems like using an expensive to operate fleet for the sake of it, especially when you consider the need to set up suitable servicing facilities and the crew training involved.

One of the thoughts noted before on this is that it could free up 170s for Chiltern to remove their 68+Mk3 fleet.

I think the words 'considering options' are relevant.
 

daodao

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Modern Railways reports that surplus Class 68s could be deployed on Nottingham to Cardiff services. It's a shame this route has never been properly regarded as 'InterCity style' by XC. It feels more like a second-rate regional service given it is operated by 170s.

Given the negative experiences of TPE and TfW, TOCs would be well advised to steer clear with a bargepole of introducing a fleet of loco-hauled carriages.
 

edwin_m

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Given the negative experiences of TPE and TfW, TOCs would be well advised to steer clear with a bargepole of introducing a fleet of loco-hauled carriages.
Especially considering this is the very same fleet that has had problems including noise complaints, poor riding and structural defects. Aren't there still some Avanti 221s with no home to go to, which would be a much better fit here?
 

Halifaxlad

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It's a shame this route has never been properly regarded as 'InterCity style' by XC. It feels more like a second-rate regional service given it is operated by 170s.

I don't think a Nottingham is considered to be a major city, now if the service was to depart from Leeds it would probably be another story.
 

Starmill

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I don't think a Nottingham is considered to be a major city, now if the service was to depart from Leeds it would probably be another story.
Nottingham and Leeds are relatively similar-sized with relatively similar rail provision. What are you getting at?

Indeed, it doesn't appear to make sense at all. Just seems like using an expensive to operate fleet for the sake of it, especially when you consider the need to set up suitable servicing facilities and the crew training involved.

One of the thoughts noted before on this is that it could free up 170s for Chiltern to remove their 68+Mk3 fleet.

I think the words 'considering options' are relevant.
This reminds me of when Modern Railways printed an article about Leeds - Settle - Glasgow Central services with the CrossCountry HSTs.
 

cle

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Nottingham and Leeds are relatively similar-sized with relatively similar rail provision. What are you getting at?
Leeds has about 4x the rail users, and is not even double the size. It’s clearly economically / per capita punching above Nottingham. Which is a classic British overgrown large town.
 

edwin_m

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Leeds has about 4x the rail users, and is not even double the size. It’s clearly economically / per capita punching above Nottingham. Which is a classic British overgrown large town.
If you're looking at local authority population figures, bear in mind that much of what most people would consider to be Nottingham is actually in one of the three adjacent authorities.

Leeds is the centre of a conurbation with much more commuter train service than Nottingham, and many long distance rail journeys from the surroundings of Leeds involve changing trains there. Many people travelling longer distances to/from the Nottingham area will use better train services at Derby or Grantham.
 

Snow1964

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One of the thoughts noted before on this is that it could free up 170s for Chiltern to remove their 68+Mk3 fleet.

I think the words 'considering options' are relevant.

I was thinking the same, with passenger numbers growing again (especially in leisure sector, if not business trains) then must be lot of local pressure for cascaded stock.

I think it is generally agreed there are plenty of trains (or will be once the 701, 730, 805, 807, 810 enter service), however many of the spare trains are wrong sort of train.

I do wonder if it is now realised in DfT (and some staff must have worked there for years), that cascades might be the solution. Not a bit of dabbling, but serious we need the 170s so what can we replace them with. So agree considering options seem likely.

To some extent comes back to no one has built a regional train since the 158s over 30 years ago, tend to have express trains or commuter trains and nothing between. Neither of which really suit the 3 hour semi-Intercity, semi-urban style service on part electrified lines.

For clarity my idea of a regional train is a 100mph (maybe 110mph on 25kv), with seats suitable for 3+ hour journeys, doors suitable for churn, and some commuter work, about 5 or 6 cars long and multi-mode traction
 

Starmill

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Leeds has about 4x the rail users, and is not even double the size. It’s clearly economically / per capita punching above Nottingham. Which is a classic British overgrown large town.
10km population from Old Market Square in Nottingham is 656,000, and from Milennium Square in Leeds is 670,000. Almost exactly the same. Arguably in Leeds I could have used City Square or somewhere on Briggate as my centre, but it makes very little difference.

If you take it out further, Nottingham does grow much less after 10km because it doesn't have Bradford on its doorstep, wheras from Leeds a 15km catchment includes all of Bradford city centre and inner suburbs. Derby is of course the closest equivalent but it's further away from Nottingham city centre.
 

Bartsimho

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To some extent comes back to no one has built a regional train since the 158s over 30 years ago, tend to have express trains or commuter trains and nothing between. Neither of which really suit the 3 hour semi-Intercity, semi-urban style service on part electrified lines.

For clarity my idea of a regional train is a 100mph (maybe 110mph on 25kv), with seats suitable for 3+ hour journeys, doors suitable for churn, and some commuter work, about 5 or 6 cars long and multi-mode traction
I'll be honest that does sound very much like the 755's. About a 2 hour journey, Bi-mode, 100mph max speed, 3 to 4 cars, Part of the FLIRT (Fast Light Intercity and Regional Train) family so Stadler consider them to be like that. Although I would always prefer 110mph on both wires and diesel traction.

So the families would need to be FLIRT, Coradia or Desiro Verve from the manufacturers already in the UK
 

cle

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10km population from Old Market Square in Nottingham is 656,000, and from Milennium Square in Leeds is 670,000. Almost exactly the same. Arguably in Leeds I could have used City Square or somewhere on Briggate as my centre, but it makes very little difference.
this is my point, population is not equal - and doesn't translate to rail use or economic activity. Bradford is 3x bigger than Cambridge, etc. Leeds is a far bigger city from an inbound/economic point of view, and being the dominant place in the region - the East Midlands is polycentric and also economically very close to Birmingham and Sheffield - so it's more murky - but I take the points on railheadding.
 

Starmill

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this is my point, population is not equal - and doesn't translate to rail use or economic activity. Bradford is 3x bigger than Cambridge, etc. Leeds is a far bigger city from an inbound/economic point of view, and being the dominant place in the region - the East Midlands is polycentric and also economically very close to Birmingham and Sheffield - so it's more murky - but I take the points on railheadding.
Er, Leeds is closer to Sheffield than Nottingham is. The suburban areas of Leeds have about the same population as Nottingham. Yes, Nottingham is surrounded by open country and small villages to the east and south for many kilometers, and Derby is smaller and further away than Bradford is from Leeds, but that's not what the post you quoted was about, and they're not fundamentally different in structure or rail use otherwise than the region as a whole has more population in West Yorkshire than Nottingham, south Nottinghamshire, Derby and south Derbyshire. Nottingham city centre is very clearly the regional centre over Grantham, Derby, Mansfield, Alfreton, Belper, Ilkeston, Long Eaton, Loughborough, Chesterfield, Burton-upon-Trent or Newark-on-Trent.
 

cle

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Yes but Leeds is stronger economically, so Sheffield doesn't detract in quite the same way. And I said the EM region, not Nottingham specifically, so for Sheffield, I was thinking Worksop, Mansfield, Chesterfield.

Whereas if anything pulls or detracts from Leeds, it's Manchester - we are going further as Leeds is the apex.
 

Starmill

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Yes but Leeds is stronger economically, so Sheffield doesn't detract in quite the same way. And I said the EM region, not Nottingham specifically, so for Sheffield, I was thinking Worksop, Mansfield, Chesterfield.

Whereas if anything pulls or detracts from Leeds, it's Manchester - we are going further as Leeds is the apex.
If you take the 35km population from Leeds City Square, which is the largest you can without including large areas of Greater Manchester and South Yorkshire, you get 2.9 million people. The East Midlands measured on a point half way between Old Market Square and Green Dragon Square is 2.5 million. At most, West Yorkshire is about a fifth bigger. The East Midlands as a whole is hardly polycentric because it only has two large business / employment and shopping / leisure centres, and most of the population just favours the one it's closest to out of Nottingham and Leicester.
 

edwin_m

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If you take the 35km population from Leeds City Square, which is the largest you can without including large areas of Greater Manchester and South Yorkshire, you get 2.9 million people. The East Midlands measured on a point half way between Old Market Square and Green Dragon Square is 2.5 million. At most, West Yorkshire is about a fifth bigger. The East Midlands as a whole is hardly polycentric because it only has two large business / employment and shopping / leisure centres, and most of the population just favours the one it's closest to out of Nottingham and Leicester.
However, it is more polycentric in terms of rail travel. Nottingham and Leicester both have services that are worse in many respects than those at Derby, so people may railhead to Derby (as well as Grantham and elsewhere for better London services). Hence Nottingham and Leicester are both likely to under-perform as rail services relative to their populations, compared to West Yorkshire where Leeds has generally better service than Bradford, Wakefield etc.
 

Starmill

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However, it is more polycentric in terms of rail travel. Nottingham and Leicester both have services that are worse in many respects than those at Derby, so people may railhead to Derby (as well as Grantham and elsewhere for better London services). Hence Nottingham and Leicester are both likely to under-perform as rail services relative to their populations, compared to West Yorkshire where Leeds has generally better service than Bradford, Wakefield etc.
Yes that is true about the structure of the provision. The East Midlands has lots of the most popular England - England flows where there's no direct service, such as Leicester - Coventry / Manchester / Leeds / Newcastle and Nottingham - Newcastle. Loughborough - Birmingham and Melton Mowbray - Nottingham are much smaller but in a similar situation where rail can't realistically compete under the current structure.
 
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cle

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Derby is smaller, and much less interesting, but due to Rolls Royce and the rail industry itself, a more wealthy/active economy, so there is plenty of regional inbound commuting to Derby employment - even if not into the city centre/via rail specifically.
 

Bartsimho

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Nottingham city centre is very clearly the regional centre over Grantham, Derby, Mansfield, Alfreton, Belper, Ilkeston, Long Eaton, Loughborough, Chesterfield, Burton-upon-Trent or Newark-on-Trent.
It isn't really like that. Chesterfield is more its own thing/points towards Sheffield.

Alfreton points to either Chesterfield or Derby rather than Nottingham. Ilkeston points to both Derby and Nottingham.

Derby is very much its own thing as well with Belper and even Burton pointing towards it. Long Eaton feels like a disconnect between Derby and Nottingham due to the station being on the Derby side and having more service to there.

Mansfield to Nottingham traffic could be expanded but the single track prevents it.

Newark feels like its own thing with a slight point to Nottingham.
 

edwin_m

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Bringing this back to topic, a Nottingham-Cardiff upgrade would benefit the East to West Midlands flow which is important and to be honest pretty poor at present. With the prospect of an east-west HS2 service being lost, I believe the industry should look at a direct service avoiding Derby via the Trent to Stenson route, which would save about 20min between Nottingham and Birmingham.
 

Dr Day

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Going back to the OP, whilst 'focusing on InterCity' sounds like the right thing to do whilst these services are branded as XC, the challenge is still how to provide some of the regional connectivity between the smaller stations given infrastructure capacity constraints. XC do provide some useful peak passenger carrying capacity and frequency between lots of combinations of places which arguably 'should' belong to the local TOCs but may not be easily replicated. eg University to Cheltenham, Chepstow-Cardiff and Beeston- Nottingham.
 

JonathanH

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With the prospect of an east-west HS2 service being lost, I believe the industry should look at a direct service avoiding Derby via the Trent to Stenson route, which would save about 20min between Nottingham and Birmingham.
It is normally stated that the flows to and from Derby are too significant to ignore, both between Nottingham and Derby, and Derby and Burton, Tamworth and Birmingham.

Would a five car operation between Nottingham and Birmingham avoiding Derby result in full loads?
 

The Planner

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It is normally stated that the flows to and from Derby are too significant to ignore, both between Nottingham and Derby, and Derby and Burton, Tamworth and Birmingham.

Would a five car operation between Nottingham and Birmingham avoiding Derby result in full loads?
I suspect a couple of fast peak services would do ok. Not convinced about all day.
 

edwin_m

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It is normally stated that the flows to and from Derby are too significant to ignore, both between Nottingham and Derby, and Derby and Burton, Tamworth and Birmingham.

Would a five car operation between Nottingham and Birmingham avoiding Derby result in full loads?
I'd divert only the hourly Cardiff, which would leave 3TPH between Nottingham and Derby and between Derby and Birmingham. Connecting at Derby is less important for Nottingham passengers now that Matlock and Crewe services run through. The Midlands Rail Hub, which allegedly will be funded in full after HS2 cancellation, provided for an hourly Birmingham-Nottingham fast via HS2, and also for local services on the only route out of Birmingham that doesn't have any. So ideally my proposed service would be non-stop through both Burton and Tamworth, but (particularly if that isn't possible) it should have reservable seats so longer-distance passengers aren't crowded out by shoppers and commuters. The Nottingham-Birmingham has never been reservable, and although you can book specific seats on the Cardiff, none of my journeys since Covid have actually had seat tickets put out.
 

Starmill

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It isn't really like that. Chesterfield is more its own thing/points towards Sheffield.

Alfreton points to either Chesterfield or Derby rather than Nottingham. Ilkeston points to both Derby and Nottingham.

Derby is very much its own thing as well with Belper and even Burton pointing towards it. Long Eaton feels like a disconnect between Derby and Nottingham due to the station being on the Derby side and having more service to there.

Mansfield to Nottingham traffic could be expanded but the single track prevents it.

Newark feels like its own thing with a slight point to Nottingham.
Sure but if you're going to split all of those hairs you'd say exactly the same things about West Yorkshire "my grandma lives in Shipley, which isn't in Leeds and never has been, and she always goes shopping in Bradford and never in Leeds" - it's all pretty meaningless. What I was getting at was that other than their structures being slightly different (two major centres vs one) and West Yorkshire having about a fifth more people, their economies are very comparable. What is different is the layout of the rail provision, which is based on accidents of history and random chance, rather than being based on a planned network or on the local economy. The principle wasn't that difficult to understand.
 

Rhydgaled

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To some extent comes back to no one has built a regional train since the 158s over 30 years ago, tend to have express trains or commuter trains and nothing between.
Agreed, we haven't had any new regional (express) trains for ages, apart from the class 175s (and there aren't many of them - although they are available). Assuming we are talking for non-electrified routes here - there has also been the class 444s for electrified routes which as far as the train is concerned is a reasonable regional design (interior fit out is changeable - bodyshells are not).

For clarity my idea of a regional train is a 100mph (maybe 110mph on 25kv), with seats suitable for 3+ hour journeys, doors suitable for churn, and some commuter work, about 5 or 6 cars long and multi-mode traction
I'm not sure why you include 'doors suitable for churn' - if you do that surely 158s wouldn't count and 170s/168s would. My specification for an ideal regional express train would be:
  • multi-mode traction (a pantograph, or provision for one to be easily retro-fitted, should be mandatory for all new rolling stock, not just regional express)
  • unit-end gangways (not relevant to regional express vs suburban, hence I consider the 175s to be a regional express design, but very much prefrable)
  • low track damage (ability to use Sprinter differential linespeeds) and low running costs (fuel economy etc.) to help the economics of rural lines (as above, the class 175s don't meet this requirement but are still a better choice than 170s for the buiser regional express routes like Cardiff-Nottingham and Manchester-Swansea)
  • top speed of at least 90mph, probably 100mph (could be higher, but must consider the above two points - I think I've seen 115mph suggested as the limit for end-gangways)
  • flush-closing (ie. plug) exterior doors
  • sufficient toilets to meet the rail delivery group best-practice for inter-urban services (85 seats per toilet if I recall correctly) - this is likely to mean one toilet per carriage
  • generous seat pitch (spacing between rows) - I think on the class 175s this figure is 84cm for the airline-style seats and would be my starting point*
  • roughly 50% of seats to be grouped in bays of four around tables, and these to be perfectly aligned with the windows to avoid even partial view-blocking
  • internal doors between vestibles and passenger saloons (and between passenger saloons and gangway connections, if applicable), to prevent draughts when the exterior doors are open (and cut noise from gangways)
  • toilets should be accessed from the vestibles and not the passenger saloons (so you always need to walk through two doors to go from toilet to seat or vice-versa)
  • a reasonable provision of luggage racks
  • large windows, both horrizonally (to ensure the tables can be aligned with them without compressing seat pitch) and vertically (Pendolino-style narrow-slits need not apply)
  • seats suitable for 3+ hour journeys* (not even InterCity stock is getting these at the moment, we seriously need a new design of seat that will appeal to car users who have been away from rail for a while and have not had their expectations managed downwards at each refurbishment / fleet renewal)
  • 2+2 seating
  • a high-quality door mechanisim that opens and closes as rapidly as possible, to limit the impact on dwell times
  • reasonable acceleration at low speeds, recognising that some regional express routes have lots of closely-spaced request stops on part of the route
  • a recognition that the comfort (and luggage) requirements above, plus the fact that passengers should not be expected to have to stand on such services,** mean that the design should provide the maximum possible furnishable space - thus vestibles (and therefore exterior doors****) should be as narrow as possible (or reduced in number) while still allowing wheelchair access etc. and crumple zones for high-speed operation should be avoided
Really, this is the same as an InterCity train but with fewer coaches (so no buffet, due to having fewer passengers to provide custom), no first class and a reduced top speed to improve acceleration (gear ratios), reduce running costs and allow end-gangways.

* the overall design needs to be tested with some sort of mock-up BEFORE any contracts for the actual fleet are signed, to allow changes if the initial supplier is not up to scratch
** regional express services make fewer stops on the more-congested parts of the network (in big cities) where passsenger numbers are highest (meaning a high number of passengers will be making journeys of well over 20 minutes***, compared to a much small number of passengers doing five minute hops between rural request stops)
*** I believe this is (or was) used as a PIXC definition for SWT services out of London Waterloo - for services that were not scheduled to stop within 20 minutes after departing Waterloo the definition of 'capacity' was equal to the seating capacity of the train - ie. ANY passengers standing on such a service would have seen the TOC penalised
**** this is the opposite of the wide doors that tend to be recommended for dealing with 'passenger churn'
 

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