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Offer for Go Ahead Group

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TheGrandWazoo

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13 June 2022

The Go-Ahead Group plc

Statement re. possible offers

The Board of The Go-Ahead Group plc ("Go-Ahead", the "Company or the "Group") notes the recent movement in its share price and confirms that it has received separate unsolicited, conditional approaches regarding possible cash offers for the entire issued, and to be issued, share capital of the Company from each of:

· Kelsian Group Limited ("Kelsian"); and

· a consortium consisting of Kinetic Holding Company Pty Ltd and Globalvia Inversiones S.A.U (the "Consortium").

The Board of Go-Ahead carefully evaluated the approaches from each of Kelsian and the Consortium together with its financial adviser, Rothschild & Co. Following the response by the Board of Go-Ahead to their respective approaches, Kelsian and the Consortium each submitted a series of revised proposals.

The most recent revised proposals received from each of Kelsian and the Consortium are both at a level which, should a firm offer be made, the Board of Go-Ahead would be minded to recommend such a firm offer to Go-Ahead shareholders, subject to the agreement of other customary terms and conditions. Accordingly, both parties have been given access to undertake confirmatory due diligence.

A further announcement will be made if and when appropriate.

Important Takeover Code notes

In accordance with Rule 2.6(a) of the Code, each of the Consortium and Kelsian is required, by not later than 5.00 p.m. on 11 July 2022, to either announce a firm intention to make an offer for the Company in accordance with Rule 2.7 of the Code or announce that it does not intend to make an offer for the Company in which case the announcement will be treated as a statement to which Rule 2.8 of the Code applies. These deadlines can be extended with the consent of the Panel on Takeovers and Mergers in accordance with Rule 2.6(c) of the Code.

This announcement has been made without the consent of the Consortium or Kelsian.

There can be no certainty either that an offer will be made nor as to the terms of any offer, if made.

The person responsible for arranging the release of this announcement on behalf of the Group is Carolyn Ferguson, Company Secretary.

Notice related to financial adviser

N.M. Rothschild & Sons Limited ("Rothschild & Co"), which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the United Kingdom, is acting exclusively for Go-Ahead and for no one else in connection with the subject matter of this announcement and will not be responsible to anyone other than Go-Ahead for providing the protections afforded to its clients or for providing advice in connection with the subject matter of this announcement.

Disclosure requirements of the Code

Under Rule 8.3(a) of the Code, any person who is interested in 1% or more of any class of relevant securities of an offeree company or of any securities exchange offeror (being any offeror other than an offeror in respect of which it has been announced that its offer is, or is likely to be, solely in cash) must make an Opening Position Disclosure following the commencement of the offer period and, if later, following the announcement in which any securities exchange offeror is first identified. An Opening Position Disclosure must contain details of the person's interests and short positions in, and rights to subscribe for, any relevant securities of each of (i) the offeree company and (ii) any securities exchange offeror(s). An Opening Position Disclosure by a person to whom Rule 8.3(a) applies must be made by no later than 3.30 pm (London time) on the 10th business day following the commencement of the offer period and, if appropriate, by no later than 3.30 pm (London time) on the 10th business day following the announcement in which any securities exchange offeror is first identified. Relevant persons who deal in the relevant securities of the offeree company or of a securities exchange offeror prior to the deadline for making an Opening Position Disclosure must instead make a Dealing Disclosure.

Under Rule 8.3(b) of the Code, any person who is, or becomes, interested in 1% or more of any class of relevant securities of the offeree company or of any securities exchange offeror must make a Dealing Disclosure if the person deals in any relevant securities of the offeree company or of any securities exchange offeror. A Dealing Disclosure must contain details of the dealing concerned and of the person's interests and short positions in, and rights to subscribe for, any relevant securities of each of (i) the offeree company and (ii) any securities exchange offeror, save to the extent that these details have previously been disclosed under Rule 8. A Dealing Disclosure by a person to whom Rule 8.3(b) applies must be made by no later than 3.30 pm (London time) on the business day following the date of the relevant dealing.

If two or more persons act together pursuant to an agreement or understanding, whether formal or informal, to acquire or control an interest in relevant securities of an offeree company or a securities exchange offeror, they will be deemed to be a single person for the purpose of Rule 8.3.

Opening Position Disclosures must also be made by the offeree company and by any offeror and Dealing Disclosures must also be made by the offeree company, by any offeror and by any persons acting in concert with any of them (see Rules 8.1, 8.2 and 8.4). Details of the offeree and offeror companies in respect of whose relevant securities Opening Position Disclosures and Dealing Disclosures must be made can be found in the Disclosure Table on the Takeover Panel's website at www.thetakeoverpanel.org.uk, including details of the number of relevant securities in issue, when the offer period commenced and when any offeror was first identified. You should contact the Panel's Market Surveillance Unit on +44 (0)20 7638 0129 if you are in any doubt as to whether you are required to make an Opening Position Disclosure or a Dealing Disclosure.

Rule 26.1 disclosure

In accordance with Rule 26.1 of the Code, a copy of this announcement will be available (subject to certain restrictions relating to persons resident in restricted jurisdictions) at www.Go-Ahead.com/investors.com by no later than 12 noon (London time) on the business day following the date of this announcement. The content of the website referred to in this announcement is not incorporated into and does not form part of this announcement.

Rule 2.9 information

In accordance with Rule 2.9 of the Code, Go-Ahead confirms that as at the close of business on 10 June 2022 its issued share capital consisted of 43,177,390 ordinary shares of 10 pence each (excluding shares held in treasury). The International Securities Identification Number for Go-Ahead's ordinary shares is GB0003753778.

Additional Information

This announcement is not intended to, and does not, constitute or form part of any offer, invitation or the solicitation of an offer to purchase, otherwise acquire, subscribe for, sell or otherwise dispose of, any securities, or the solicitation of any vote or approval in any jurisdiction, pursuant to this announcement or otherwise. Any offer, if made, will be made solely by certain offer documentation which will contain the full terms and conditions of any offer, including details of how it may be accepted. The distribution of this announcement in jurisdictions other than the United Kingdom and the availability of any offer to shareholders of Go-Ahead who are not resident in the United Kingdom may be affected by the laws of relevant jurisdictions. Therefore any persons who are subject to the laws of any jurisdiction other than the United Kingdom or shareholders of Go-Ahead who are not resident in the United Kingdom will need to inform themselves about, and observe any applicable requirements.
 
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KenA

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What value can they see in Go-Ahead? It is not that profitable. A lot of Go-Ahead outside of London makes a loss. Will they just keep London and the odd profitable division outside of London and sell of the rest if they can find a buyer?

There was an offer for First Bus by another company but that offer was rejected. They may come back with another offer
 
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dmncf

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It feels like there's a lot of change at the moment, with the Stagecoach, First and Go-Ahead all subject to offers from buyers.
Does this mean anything for the health of the UK's public transport industry?
I'm not a follower of mergers and acquisitions. In other industries, does it mean anything when all the mature big players are targeted by buyers in a short period of time?
 

E-Rail

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They're all asset strippers. We are about to see stripping to the bone, shoestring management and asset sales that will make Souter and Gloag look like they were preservationists in the 1990s.
 

KenA

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They're all asset strippers. We are about to see stripping to the bone, shoestring management and asset sales that will make Souter and Gloag look like they were preservationists in the 1990s.
There is not a lot left to strip out outside of London. Most bus services outside of the large cities are little more then a skeleton service. You need a car if you work.
 
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smtglasgow

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It feels like there's a lot of change at the moment, with the Stagecoach, First and Go-Ahead all subject to offers from buyers.
Does this mean anything for the health of the UK's public transport industry?
I'm not a follower of mergers and acquisitions. In other industries, does it mean anything when all the mature big players are targeted by buyers in a short period of time?

I’m not sure we can really tell much from recent financial results. The Covid support has masked passenger/income volatility and probably saved a few poorly performing businesses from embarrassment. But I’d say that the Go-Ahead portfolio is generally sound – although what were they thinking getting involved in East Anglia? – and losses at North West and North East can be turned around.

I genuinely think there is a reasonably bright future for urban public transport – pollution might move down the agenda with de-carbonisation, but congestion will still be with us. Outside of the big urban centres, I’m not so sure. Buses in small town Britain seems to be dying a slow death. But even here, modest support from government might help stem the tide.

We assume that everybody drives, or aspires to. But the cost of motoring is spiralling – and not just fuel. Fewer young people have a driving license. So with the right products and sensible pricing there should be a sustainable business worth buying.
 

Bletchleyite

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They're all asset strippers.

Are they? Kelsian appears to be a major Australian transport operator a bit like First/Stagecoach/NatEx which already has a UK interest in Tower Transit:

 

GusB

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Are they? Kelsian appears to be a major Australian transport operator a bit like First/Stagecoach/NatEx which already has a UK interest in Tower Transit:

Hasn't the remainder of Tower Transit just been hived off to Stagecoach? Presumably this was a move to eliminate any possible opposition from the Competition and Markets Authority about taking over the London operations of Go Ahead.
 

Anthony ross

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Deal to be completed later this month I believe with stagecoach taking control of Lea interchange
 

KenA

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Are they? Kelsian appears to be a major Australian transport operator a bit like First/Stagecoach/NatEx which already has a UK interest in Tower Transit:

The same company that just sold up their London operation to Stagecoach.

I'm not sure when all the Go Ahead companies report their figures but Konect Bus are due to report these at the end of the month. The figures for the last few years have been difficult to interpret due to covid and the Go-ahead East restructure where Heddingham & Chambers were absorbed in to Konect. They still exist as trading names though.

This year's report should be easier. We just need to strip out the Covid support and see what the figures show. Generally all 3 companies made losses typically.
 
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67thave

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Go-Ahead has apparently accepted Kinetic's offer.

Go-Ahead shares jumped after the transport company agreed to a £650 million takeover by a consortium including an Australian bus operator.

The UK-listed company, which runs London’s red buses on behalf of Transport for London, saw shares rise by 13.4% to 1,540p on Tuesday morning.

It came after Go-Ahead revealed on Monday evening that it would recommend its shareholders accept the offer of £15 per share including a special dividend.
The offer came from a consortium including Australian firm Kinetic Holdings and Spanish infrastructure investor Globalvia, which are both backed by a Canadian pension fund.

The deal is expected to complete by around October 2022, subject to conditions.

Kinetic's been on a bit of a spending spree recently, having purchased the urban bus operators in Mackay (Queensland) and Devonport (Tasmania) in the past few months.
 
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busesrusuk

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The same company that just sold up their London operation to Stagecoach.

I'm not sure when all the Go Ahead companies report their figures but Konect Bus are due to report these at the end of the month. The figures for the last few years have been difficult to interpret due to covid and the Go-ahead East restructure where Heddingham & Chambers were absorbed in to Konect. They still exist as trading names though.

This year's report should be easier. We just need to strip out the Covid support and see what the figures show. Generally all 3 companies made losses typically.
The Go Ahead financial year runs from 1 July to 30 June so you won't see anything until sometime in September at the earliest with divi's paid in November. Last years were delayed significantly because of the South Eastern issues and weren't reported until late Jan/early Feb IIRC.
 

jammy36

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It feels like there's a lot of change at the moment, with the Stagecoach, First and Go-Ahead all subject to offers from buyers.
Does this mean anything for the health of the UK's public transport industry?
I'm not a follower of mergers and acquisitions. In other industries, does it mean anything when all the mature big players are targeted by buyers in a short period of time?

I'm not an investor, but I suspect there are a couple of main factors at play that explain why the big groups are now being targeted with speculative takeover offers.

Partly, it will be about post-pandemic recovery timing. Looking at Go-Ahead's share price (as the example pertinent to this thread) over a longer 5-year time frame you can see that historically the share-price wasn't too volatile, so in the three years pre-coronavirus the group's share price ranged between a low of 1,368p per share in Feb-18 and a high of 2,278p per share in Nov-19, but generally and crucially the trend was one of gradual increase. The effect of the pandemic on the group's share price is obvious - 2,150p per share in Feb-20 vs a five year low of 473p per share in Mar-20. Thus even Kinetic's 1,500p per share offer (which values the group at 24% above the pre-offer close of play) is substantially below the share price immediately before the pandemic. Essentially the bidders seem to have judged that there had been enough growth to suggest recovery in the sector, but not so much growth that share prices had fully recovered, leaving Go-Ahead ripe for the picking.

The other factor is to consider the types of investors backing these takeovers. In the case of Kinetic and Globalvia the bids are both backed by pension funds, the type of investors who typically have a low-risk appetite, favouring low-gain, low-volatility acquisitions - the type often found in that broad category of infrastructure-type providers. Despite the doom and gloom that can sometimes be seen on enthusiast forums from an investors perspective the uk transport sector is generally thought to be a low risk (low reward) investment. Take for example First's recent direct award of a further 3-years on the Great Western franchise on a contract basis that First say has zero revenue risk and limited cost risk. If the groups get there sums right then having elements of overall revenue underwritten by government contracts can (longer-term) be very attractive, especially amid a period of high inflation and where contracts include for inflation-linked pricing structures. Indeed the biggest investor risk is probably UK government transport policy.

In a period of global volatility the relative investment safety of UK transport combined with a historically relatively low share price is attractive to certain classes of private equity, infrastructure and pension fund investors, hence why we are now seeing these speculative bids.

Ironically of course the one major group - Arriva - that hasn't seen any takeover action is the one whose owner has been publicly exploring disposal options for several years now...


They're all asset strippers. We are about to see stripping to the bone, shoestring management and asset sales that will make Souter and Gloag look like they were preservationists in the 1990s.

I'm not sure the various backers of these takeover bids fit into that particular mould of Private Equity investor - and if they were they might find an industry with little left to strip. Instead, as above, I think this recent round of takeover offers is driven by a certain category of investors with a low-risk appetite who have identified the UK transport sector as a comparatively safe place to invest money and where share-price has room for growth.

EDITED: to remove a random butcher's apostrophe.
 
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pepperpot80

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I think this recent round of takeover offers is driven by a certain category of investors with a low-risk appetite who have identified the UK transport sector as a comparatively safe place to invest money and where share-price has room for growth.
Exactly this. There are no assets to strip, and little efficiency to be found. If this was an attractive business for asset strippers they'd have jumped in a long time ago.

All three parties involved are successful transport or infrastructure operators, and their financial backers are pension funds. Those funds will be looking for steady dividend returns, not share price fluctuation nor a fire sale of assets.

Arguably the recent moves around the big transport groups reflect a significant vote-of-confidence in the stability of those businesses, and a tip-of-the-hat to the way they've been run.
 

InOban

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Is there another factor - the move towards London style franchising, eg in Manchester- may make for a more stable income stream?
 
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pepperpot80

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Go-Ahead's shareholders have accepted the joint offer made by Kinetic & Globalvia this afternoon. 1450p per share, plus a 100p special dividend.

Result of Meeting

16 August 2022

RECOMMENDED CASH ACQUISITION

of

THE GO-AHEAD GROUP PLC ("GO-AHEAD")
by

GERRARD INVESTMENT BIDCO LIMITED ("BIDCO")
a newly formed company indirectly owned by Kinetic TCo Pty Ltd and Globalvia Inversiones S.A.U.

to be effected by means of a scheme of arrangement


RESULTS OF COURT MEETING AND GENERAL MEETING

Go-Ahead is pleased to announce that, at the Court Meeting and the General Meeting held earlier today in connection with the recommended cash offer by Bidco for the entire issued and to be issued share capital of Go-Ahead (the "Offer") to be effected by means of a scheme of arrangement under Part 26 of the Companies Act 2006 (the "Scheme"), all the resolutions proposed were duly passed.

Full details of the resolutions passed are set out in the notices of the Court Meeting and General Meeting contained in the scheme document dated 11 July 2022 (the "Scheme Document"), which, subject to certain restrictions relating to persons resident in Restricted Jurisdictions, is available on Go-Ahead's website at https://www.go-ahead.com/investors and Bidco's website at https://www.gerrardbid.com/.

VOTING RESULTS OF THE COURT MEETING

The Scheme was approved by the requisite majority on a poll vote at the Court Meeting held at 12.00 p.m. on 16 August 2022. A majority in number of the Scheme Shareholders who voted (and who were entitled to vote), either in person or by proxy, representing over 75 per cent. in value of the Scheme Shares held by such Scheme Shareholders present and voting, voted to approve the Scheme.

VOTING RESULTS OF THE GENERAL MEETING

The special resolution to provide for the implementation of the Scheme was passed by the requisite majority on a poll vote at the General Meeting held at 12.15 p.m. on 16 August 2022.

Completion of the Offer remains subject to the satisfaction or, if applicable, waiver of the other Conditions set out in the Scheme Document, including the Court sanctioning the Scheme at the Court Hearing which is expected to take place in October 2022.

Next moves in October, pending anything unexpected.
 
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