Omicron variant and the measures implemented in response to it

[yorkie]

I understand what you are saying @yorkie and I agree we do need exposure to the full virus, however I don't trust this government not to try and effectively make a booster an annual thing for everyone. I don't believe everyone needs an annual booster.

If anyone thinks boosters should be essential (other than to make up for the fact that most 1st & 2nd doses were not spaced out as widely as is perhaps optimal, which could be as long as 6 months) and/or that an annual dose should be essential, I suggest they listen to TWiV podcast 844 with Paul Offit hosted by Vincent Racaniello:

Paul Offit returns to TWiV to discuss new CDC guidance on J&J vaccine, why children should be immunized against COVID-19, and whether or not booster doses are scientifically justified.

The key parts start around the 20 minute mark (boosters) and the 51 minute mark (annual doses)

20:48 boosters
20:50 so i think about six months ago i
20:52 wrote a blog post
20:54 reviewing why i thought that the
20:56 evidence wasn't there
20:58 supporting a booster and you wrote to me
21:00 and you and you said you agreed ....

51:40 people talk about a yearly Covid 19
51:42 vaccine they're thinking of the flu
51:43 vaccine but that that is really not the
51:45 reason we would be doing it i just think
51:47 we need to explain that so for flu we do
51:48 it because of anthogenic variation
51:50 correct that's right right

The mainstream media do not like these podcasts because they are informative and non-alarmist.

They don't rule out the possibility of these being required, but the data isn't there (at least not yet) to support claims that they are required.

In other news, closer to home John Campbell remains upbeat and does not support a lockdown at this stage:

00:20 well these lockdowns all they're going
00:22 to do is delay the progress of this
00:24 omicron variant because it's in every
00:26 country in europe already so even though
00:28 the omicron levels in germany at the
00:30 moment are quite low it is there
00:32 probably two three percent of cases so
00:34 all this is going to do is delay things
00:36 by a small amount of time basically
00:38 everyone in europe needs to be ready to
00:40 be infected or exposed at least to
00:43 omicron in the next few weeks...

01:46 ...research out of hong kong shows
01:48 that the omicron virus replicates very
01:50 much in the upper respiratory tract
01:52 rather than in the lungs and this means
01:54 there's going to be an awful lot of the
01:55 virus around and people are going to be
01:57 exposed now every time someone's exposed
01:59 to the virus they will generate an
02:01 immune response that will improve their
02:03 immunity so as as millions of people
02:06 tens of millions of people in the next
02:08 few weeks in europe are going to be
02:09 exposed to the virus then then that
02:11 inevitably means that community or herd
02:13 immunity is going to be increased...

02:55... i'm
02:58 really hopeful that this sort of herd
03:00 immunity that's developing will take
03:01 over and make that make this particular
03:03 omicron variant like the other four
03:06 common cold corona viruses that we
03:09 already have because we have corona
03:10 virus infections all the time it's just
03:12 that this is a new type of coronavirus
03:14 so we're hoping that this will blend
03:16 back down into the sort of endemic viral
03:18 ecosystem that i'm afraid we all live in....

 

[35B]

Exactly. Whilst fortunately I have never really required its services my parents did in later life my father in the late naughties and my mother between 2014.

I won't bore everyone what exactly happened but put it this way I wasn't exactly happy. Yes, they were elderly but deserved better.

My mother was particularly badly treated after breaking her leg in 2014. Lost her mobility thanks to lack of physio.

She was sent to a rehab centre for a month and all she did until a few days before discharge was sit around. My mother was bored stiff and from what she told me staff kept asking her daft questions the nature of which appeared both to her and myself designed to do a box ticking exercise to ascertain if she had dimentia, which she didn't. They would have done better to have got her mobile again.

When she was in both hospital and rehab centre no body made a point of speaking to me and when I did approach a doctor doing his rounds the response to my questions was "Don't ask me I am only the duty Doctor!". That really piddled me off. In my job if I was asked a question I would make a point of finding out or giving the contact details of someone who could provide information.

When her time for discharge approached they hurriedly gave her some exercises on using a Zimmer frame and then discharged her after someone from social services spoke to me.

They gave her a non folding Zimmer which didn't fit the car, some risers for her bed and for the sofa and that was it. I ended up buying her a decent wheelchair and better Zimmer.

She never regained her mobility and spiralled down hill until her demise in 2020.

Yes she was elderly but she had been fit and active until tripping she deserved much better. I dare say there are many others who have had similar experiences to mine.

That is why the NHS needs a total rebuild.

I could provide stories about the weakness of the NHS - but also of it's excellence. Both in an area where the local NHS has been in "needs improvement" or worse for donkeys years.

Saying "it needs a total rebuild" means nothing when it is so fragmented, and the issues of care quality depend so much on what happens locally. As Gerard Fiennes is oft quoted as saying, and the Lansely reforms proved, "when you reorganise, you bleed". The case for change needs to be made at a detailed level, not as a sweeping generalisation based on individual anecdote.

I also write from the perspective that the worst thing that happened to public healthcare in the UK was Nye Bevan.

 

[John Luxton]

A vote for Labour is a vote for restrictions and lockdowns. We must remember that when we are next at the ballot box.

But the Tories (with a growing number of exceptions) are not much better.

Only solution is Reform UK as they have pledged never to use lockdowns.

I could provide stories about the weakness of the NHS - but also of it's excellence. Both in an area where the local NHS has been in "needs improvement" or worse for donkeys years.

Saying "it needs a total rebuild" means nothing when it is so fragmented, and the issues of care quality depend so much on what happens locally. As Gerard Fiennes is oft quoted as saying, and the Lansely reforms proved, "when you reorganise, you bleed". The case for change needs to be made at a detailed level, not as a sweeping generalisation based on individual anecdote.

I also write from the perspective that the worst thing that happened to public healthcare in the UK was Nye Bevan.

I don't doubt in some places there is excellent care but I cannot say that from family experiences in Liverpool.

Obviously those areas where it is found to be providing good outcomes for patients then those do not need to be reformed. I thought even making a general statement it would be understood as suggesting and good / excellent areas would be retained?

I would not disagree with your comments about Nye Bevan.

I understand he based the NHS on the GWR's private health scheme for employees.

However, perhaps Labour should have arranged for the GWR to run the national scheme might have worked then!

 

[brad465]

Cases are now down across South Africa as a whole (down 5% over the last 7 days):

South Africa COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

South Africa Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

 

[Bantamzen]

I am a big supporter of the NHS but I cannot help but agree with this. It should be properly funded and part of the issue at the moment is as the result of 11 years of under investment.

Indeed.

Natural Labour supporter (and still am because I loathe the Tories and especially Johnson and what he stands for); however on this issue I cannot support Labour's stance on reintroducing restrictions.

I'm at a loss as to how Labour haven't seized on how badly the Tories have performed with the NHS over the last two years. They don't seem to have latched onto the political opportunity to demonstrate just how badly the NHS can perform when they get involved in crisis management and procurement. For all that the vaccination programme demonstrates a good side of the NHS, there have been many examples of how not to do things. Its almost as if Labour don't want to be in power.

I could provide stories about the weakness of the NHS - but also of it's excellence. Both in an area where the local NHS has been in "needs improvement" or worse for donkeys years.

Saying "it needs a total rebuild" means nothing when it is so fragmented, and the issues of care quality depend so much on what happens locally. As Gerard Fiennes is oft quoted as saying, and the Lansely reforms proved, "when you reorganise, you bleed". The case for change needs to be made at a detailed level, not as a sweeping generalisation based on individual anecdote.

I also write from the perspective that the worst thing that happened to public healthcare in the UK was Nye Bevan.

You are sounding a bit like the NHS bosses, sure there are lots of good things about the NHS. But then there are terrible ones, like tipping vulnerable elderly patients out of hospitals into care homes, dodgy procurement routes, even shutting GP networks to the very people they are supposed to be protecting. Its no use patting yourself on the back after making a fine meal if the kitchen is currently on fire.

 

[yorkie]

The Grauniad have an interesting article, where they appear to admit that [some] scientists are really worried that cases will fall without restrictions, which undermines their call for restrictions:

New year ‘too late’ for extra Covid rules in England, scientists say

Reaction comes after Boris Johnson announces there will be no additional measures put in place for now

www.theguardian.com

Scientists have reacted with dismay to Boris Johnson’s decision not to impose fresh restrictions to curb the spread of Omicron, emphasising that waiting until the new year would “almost certainly be too late to have a material impact on the epidemic”.

Because the rate of growth in infection rates may already have plateaued or fallen by then, it may also be too late to know what impact those restrictions would have had if they had been introduced earlier. “We are damned if we do and damned if we don’t,” said Paul Hunter, a professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia.

Yet, with Omicron infections currently doubling within 48 hours in most regions of the UK, the country may already have reached a ceiling where the rate of growth begins to fall and case numbers plateau.

Hunter believes that point could come within days, with or without interventions. “If we implement control measures now, they are unlikely to be sufficient to reverse the growth, only slow it,” he said. “But there may still be benefits in slowing the peak, in terms of flattening the curve.”

The Grauniad is a mouthpiece for far-left authoritarians but in this case it appears to have accidentally shown up how illogical the arguments can be.

I note the article quotes far-left authoritarian lunatics such as Christina Pagel and Trish Greenhalgh and gives them plenty of space in the article to promote utter tosh.

In a laughable attempt to pretend to be balanced, they do have a paragraph at the very end of the article that does acknowledge mental health. It's too little, too late and only serves to demonstrate how incredibly biased this rag for far-left extremists is. I don't think anyone who is politically centre left and not authoritarian could possibly trust the Grauniad. It's not a publication suitable for the moderate/centre left at all.

The admission has been picked up on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/hughosmond/status/1473242890746925065?s=21

If we don't bring in restrictions, we are worried that infections may fall without them....

The replies are interesting:

Can anyone point me to a peer reviewed paper analysing the impact of previous restrictions in the UK and showing that they had a positive net impact? I won't hold my breath.

Consider the ONS data for the last 5 days isn't yet available. Looks like the 20-29s is already starting to peak in London (and they have a low vacc rates too). I think that's a very strong possibility by the New Year, London will.

If the rates fall without restrictions, then it will be clear that the restrictions never made a lot of difference. That's why they're desperate to bring them in. So when the rates do fall, they can attribute it to their heroic intervention rather than the natural course...

Don't forget extremists like Pagel and Greenhaulgh (you're having a laugh if you listen to them) claimed that the 19th July 2021 relaxations would spell disaster; in reality case numbers plummeted.

Yet extremist publications such as the Grauniad are more than happy to give prominence to the views of these odious individuals despite them having been proven wrong time after time.

 

[stuartl]

Exactly. Whilst fortunately I have never really required its services my parents did in later life my father in the late naughties and my mother between 2014.

I won't bore everyone what exactly happened but put it this way I wasn't exactly happy. Yes, they were elderly but deserved better.

My mother was particularly badly treated after breaking her leg in 2014. Lost her mobility thanks to lack of physio.

She was sent to a rehab centre for a month and all she did until a few days before discharge was sit around. My mother was bored stiff and from what she told me staff kept asking her daft questions the nature of which appeared both to her and myself designed to do a box ticking exercise to ascertain if she had dimentia, which she didn't. They would have done better to have got her mobile again.

When she was in both hospital and rehab centre no body made a point of speaking to me and when I did approach a doctor doing his rounds the response to my questions was "Don't ask me I am only the duty Doctor!". That really piddled me off. In my job if I was asked a question I would make a point of finding out or giving the contact details of someone who could provide information.

When her time for discharge approached they hurriedly gave her some exercises on using a Zimmer frame and then discharged her after someone from social services spoke to me.

They gave her a non folding Zimmer which didn't fit the car, some risers for her bed and for the sofa and that was it. I ended up buying her a decent wheelchair and better Zimmer.

She never regained her mobility and spiralled down hill until her demise in 2020.

Yes she was elderly but she had been fit and active until tripping she deserved much better. I dare say there are many others who have had similar experiences to mine.

That is why the NHS needs a total rebuild.

Ah.. the famous 'Scientists have reacted with dismay' line, after picking their favourite one's who think the same as they do.

 

[35B]

You are sounding a bit like the NHS bosses, sure there are lots of good things about the NHS. But then there are terrible ones, like tipping vulnerable elderly patients out of hospitals into care homes, dodgy procurement routes, even shutting GP networks to the very people they are supposed to be protecting. Its no use patting yourself on the back after making a fine meal if the kitchen is currently on fire.

You mistake me. I believe there's a lot wrong in and around the NHS; the story @John Luxton tells about his mother has a lot of similarities to some I could tell. But to jump from that to "it needs a total rebuild" suggests that radical change will necessarily bring about the sort of improvement that's required. Lansley tried that 10 years ago, and it did very little to address the issues deeper down within the organisations that actually underpin those failings.

 

[LAX54]

Ah.. the famous 'Scientists have reacted with dismay' line, after picking their favourite one's who think the same as they do.

still saying.... maybe, could be, possibly, and my favourite about Hospital admissions a couple of weeks ago, "They may go up, but on the other hand, they well go down, we don't know "

 

[bramling]

Well maybe that’s the problem. No publicly funded institution should ever be placed beyond criticism. Doing so simply ensures that said system will never improve, because it has absolutely no incentive to do so.

If we’re being honest, most of us would admit it’s a pretty rubbish system. It delivers some of the worst results in the developed world in terms of cancer treatment etc. For much of the last two years it has “done” nothing other than Covid. It’s also a bottomless money pit despite being ringfenced and having a perpetually increasing budget. As I have observed previously, if our centralised healthcare system is so good, how come we are the only ones using it?!

Covid has shown its failings into sharp relief. Let’s face it we constantly hear about how the U.K. has one of the worst Covid death rates in the world. That’s only generally mentioned when attacking politicians, but how much responsibility for it should actually be laid at the door of the NHS itself?

NHS faces questions over Covid infections contracted in hospital | Coronavirus | The Guardian

As bereaved families seek answers, number of cases and alleged failings cause concern in England<br>

amp.theguardian.com

If we can’t have an adult conversation about it could be improved it’ll never change. Despite Covid, it seems we still can’t, so it wont.

This is an excellent post, and hits the nail on the head. As you rightly say, if the NHS is so “amazing”, how come we don’t seem to do particularly well in terms of outcomes, both for Covid and everything else?

We very much need to get away from the idea that the NHS is beyond criticism, and also the idea that any issues with it are solely down to lack of funding. It benefited from a massive uplift of funding in the Blair years, yet here we are.

 

[Eyersey468]

@John Luxton my condolences about your mum

 

[takno]

This is an excellent post, and hits the nail on the head. As you rightly say, if the NHS is so “amazing”, how come we don’t seem to do particularly well in terms of outcomes, both for Covid and everything else?

We very much need to get away from the idea that the NHS is beyond criticism, and also the idea that any issues with it are solely down to lack of funding. It benefited from a massive uplift of funding in the Blair years, yet here we are.

In terms of value for money the NHS does pretty well. Cancer outcomes, much like the ability to stave off a winter crisis, are primarily driven by the vanishingly small amount of GDP we spend on healthcare compared to other countries. If you want to tear the NHS apart, let's reverse a decade of stealth cuts, moronic reorganisations and pointless fights with medical professionals. We should start spending a half-decent amount of money on healthcare first, and if the NHS is still rubbish at that point then at least we are making a fair comparison.

I'm annoyed that the tories are using the NHS as a kind of human shield, and I'm annoyed that Labour's pandemic response is pathetic, but the bunch of right-wingers on here using the Tory-government-created crisis to justify implementing extremely right-wing economic decisions is probably worse than any of it.

 

[Yew]

May I suggest that if we want to discuss NHS reform, a new thread may be in order?

 

[Eyersey468]

If anyone thinks boosters should be essential (other than to make up for the fact that most 1st & 2nd doses were not spaced out as widely as is perhaps optimal, which could be as long as 6 months) and/or that an annual dose should be essential, I suggest they listen to TWiV podcast 844 with Paul Offit hosted by Vincent Racaniello:

The key parts start around the 20 minute mark (boosters) and the 51 minute mark (annual doses)


The mainstream media do not like these podcasts because they are informative and non-alarmist.

They don't rule out the possibility of these being required, but the data isn't there (at least not yet) to support claims that they are required.

In other news, closer to home John Campbell remains upbeat and does not support a lockdown at this stage:

Thank you they look interesting, I'll listen to them later

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

I'm sure we are in for another rollercoaster of a day today and tomorrow. What fun.

What absolutely needs to happen is for no more restrictions. Cases will naturally stop rising and hospitaliations remain at modest levels (nothing like January). A not unreasonable scenario considering the tentative data from South Africa and others. This will surely expose Sage, the modelling and the hysteria around omicron as a busted flush (although I would have thought the summer would have done that to the modelling).

On the other hand, if restrictions are introduced, any stabilisation/decline will 'prove' the fear was jutified and the worth of restrictions. We are then in a very dangerous position for the rest of winter and years to come.

Yesterday will be marked down as when govt policy changed from trying to manage the consequences of Covid to the start of how we learn to live with it and adapt ourselves as necessary to find a middle path through this. It will take a while to see the change and the path won't be smooth. Nicola Sturgeon showed the way and maybe more of convert to the philosophy of giving out the information and guiding people how to plot a course through the situation that limits the need for legal regulations.

 

[brad465]

According to this political commenter I follow, who has been fairly reliable with updates, more restrictions/lockdowns would result in more cabinet resignations, while pretending we're in a "light lockdown" (i.e. no closures/restrictions but many acting as if there are) is being used to keep the Government together:

https://twitter.com/nicktolhurst/status/1473184907748954112

+UPDATE+ UK govt has been told to expect further cabinet resignations if more Covid restrictions/lockdowns are brought in. Current strategy seems to be to encourage the country to act as if there’s a “light lockdown” without calling it that publicly to keep govt holds together.

 

[stuartl]

Even the Australians are now coming to that way of thinking as reported on the BBC news website

As Omicron looms Down Under, Prime Minister Scott Morrison says "we've got to treat Australians as adults" and "get past the heavy hand of government" in the context of rising coronavirus cases.

"We have to move from a culture of mandates to a culture of responsibility," he told reporters on Tuesday. "That’s how we live with this virus into the future.“

 

[yorkie]

Zero Covid and elimination strategies are effectively dead, at least outside dictatorships such as China.

I suspected that the elimination strategy was unviable from the very start. I don't think all of the general public in the UK understand how the epidemic needs to end but people are slowly coming around to understanding the truth. And that makes me feel a lot more relaxed now.

At the start I felt I was very much in the minority, with most people thinking the virus would be eliminated.

People may argue it would have been different without Omicron but I reject that and I also would point out that Omicron is entirely in line with what you would expect the natural evolution of such a virus to be. Some people may act surprised but the evolution that is occuring is consistent with that predicted and expected by virologists.

And while it may not seem a good thing right at this moment, Omicron is a good thing in the long term and it will help to bring the epidemic to an end, in due course.

 

[DustyBin]

Zero Covid and elimination strategies are effectively dead, at least outside dictatorships such as China.

I suspected that the elimination strategy was unviable from the very start. I don't think all of the general public in the UK understand how the epidemic needs to end but people are slowly coming around to understanding the truth. And that makes me feel a lot more relaxed now.

At the start I felt I was very much in the minority, with most people thinking the virus would be eliminated.

People may argue it would have been different without Omicron but I reject that and I also would point out that Omicron is entirely in line with what you would expect the natural evolution of such a virus to be. Some people may act surprised but the evolution that is occuring is consistent with that predicted and expected by virologists.

And while it may not seem a good thing right at this moment, Omicron is a good thing in the long term and it will help to bring the epidemic to an end, in due course.

I think you're absolutely correct. Omicron won't be the last "variant of concern" of that we can be sure, but I'm pleased to see people rejecting the idea that we need to "defeat the virus", albeit many are still cautious which is understandable given the misinformation they've been subjected to.

 

[duncanp]

More scaremongering, this time from the Health Service Journal, based on "..recent modelling.."

Give it a rest will you, you're becoming boring now.

How about paying attention to the actual figures, rather than those produced by the whatever random number generator the "modelling" uses.

NHS in London could be overwhelmed by Covid within 2-3 weeks according to leaked report

Both hospitals and ambulance service in the capital could reach breaking point, according to Health Service Journal

inews.co.uk

Omicron: NHS in London could be overwhelmed by Covid within two to three weeks, according to leaked report​

Both hospitals and ambulance service in the capital could reach breaking point, according to Health Service Journal​

The NHS in London is ‘likely to become overwhelmed due to rising Covid demand in the next two to three weeks’, leaked documents have revealed.

Analysis from NHS England London, seen by medical journal HSJ, predicts both hospitals and the ambulance service will be beyond breaking point by January as the capital suffers as the epicentre of Omicron infections.

The document, dated 20 December, stated: “NHS services in London are again facing significant operational pressure as a result of the current surge in covid-19 cases from the new variant of concern, omicron,” HSJ reported.

“Through recent modelling, it is predicted that the London Ambulance Service, Emergency Departments and the General and Acute bed base are likely to become overwhelmed due to rising covid demand in the next 2-3 weeks.

“These services, along with Primary and Community care, are under exceptional pressure given the increased ask being placed on covid vaccination capacity, and all being compounded by the impact of infection control social distancing measures and increasing Winter demand from other Long Term Conditions such as Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.”

The threat to the capital’s NHS follows the London Mayor Sadiq Khan’s declaration of a major incident over the weekend and reports that one in three NHS staff would be absent due to Covid by New Year’s Eve if the current rate of infection continues.

The NHSE document added that while local services could soon be told to restart “covid virtual wards” – a process by which patients can be discharged and monitored remotely and via home-oximetry services – there may not be enough staff to keep them running.


The leaked document added: “Many acute providers will not have the clinical workforce available to stand up their Covid virtual wards without further funding, or immediate access to redeployed clinical workforce.”It said staffing these services again might involve delaying “de-prioritised elective demand to enable those staff to be redeployed back into the covid virtual ward care models”.

There were 140,000 Covid cases in London in the past week after Omicron, which accounts for more than 80 per cent of all Covid cases in the city, led to 500 per cent increase in infections among young adults, with rates also rising among pensioners.

A spokeswoman for NHS London said: “The NHS is working with trusts in London to plan for any increases in demand and to ensure that everyone who needs urgent care receives it.

“The Omicron variant is spreading rapidly in London and this is affecting all Londoners, including NHS staff, which is leading to higher levels of staff absence and teams are working hard to minimise any impact from this and to work flexibly during this time.

“We are working to support trusts with their staffing levels, including deploying both clinical and non-clinical staff from arms-length bodies to help with the vaccination drive and in other clinical settings and are helping people who have recently left the profession to return to support the NHS at this time.”

PS

I wish I had £1 for every time I have seen "...the NHS could become overwhelmed.." and "..breaking point.." in the papers over the past few weeks.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Zero Covid and elimination strategies are effectively dead, at least outside dictatorships such as China.

I suspected that the elimination strategy was unviable from the very start. I don't think all of the general public in the UK understand how the epidemic needs to end but people are slowly coming around to understanding the truth. And that makes me feel a lot more relaxed now.

At the start I felt I was very much in the minority, with most people thinking the virus would be eliminated.

People may argue it would have been different without Omicron but I reject that and I also would point out that Omicron is entirely in line with what you would expect the natural evolution of such a virus to be. Some people may act surprised but the evolution that is occuring is consistent with that predicted and expected by virologists.

And while it may not seem a good thing right at this moment, Omicron is a good thing in the long term and it will help to bring the epidemic to an end, in due course.

We never went down the elimination route in UK but neither did we have an effective strategy for living with it hence the need to knee jerk when a new VoC appears. I do hope BoJo has recognised this need and has tasked Vallence/Whitty to advise what that requires oh and with base assumptions that a lockdown isn't an acceptable response.

 

[John Luxton]

@John Luxton my condolences about your mum

Thank you.

She was getting on a bit and the inevitable was going to happen eventually but just felt that the care or lack of it she received deprived her a few more years of active life.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

More scaremongering, this time from the Health Service Journal, based on "..recent modelling.."

Give it a rest will you, you're becoming boring now.

How about paying attention to the actual figures, rather than those produced by the whatever random number generator the "modelling" uses.

NHS in London could be overwhelmed by Covid within 2-3 weeks according to leaked report

Both hospitals and ambulance service in the capital could reach breaking point, according to Health Service Journal

inews.co.uk

PS

I wish I had £1 for every time I have seen "...the NHS could become overwhelmed.." and "..breaking point.." in the papers over the past few weeks.

What is fact though is whilst bed capacity may not get exceeded the staff to run the hospitals is being decimated with increasing levels of self isolation so the number of manageable beds is dropping by the day. this is what is going to cause the next pinch point and media storm which could trigger a knee jerk action. We should have had segregated Nightingale hospitals setup even if it meant siphoning off NHS resources so those patients were contained away from other patients and thus keep nosocomial infections down amongst patients and medical staff.

 

[Megafuss]

Judging by the number of people with suitcases and virtually all seats in the train carriage I am sat in being reserved and occupied from the start point, i think folk are taking matters in to thier own hands

 

[DustyBin]

What is fact though is whilst bed capacity may not get exceeded the staff to run the hospitals is being decimated with increasing levels of self isolation so the number of manageable beds is dropping by the day. this is what is going to cause the next pinch point and media storm which could trigger a knee jerk action. We should have had segregated Nightingale hospitals setup even if it meant siphoning off NHS resources so those patients were contained away from other patients and thus keep nosocomial infections down amongst patients and medical staff.

At some point we're going to have to do the unthinkable and stop testing and isolating.... Controversial!

 

[43066]

In terms of value for money the NHS does pretty well. Cancer outcomes, much like the ability to stave off a winter crisis, are primarily driven by the vanishingly small amount of GDP we spend on healthcare compared to other countries. If you want to tear the NHS apart, let's reverse a decade of stealth cuts, moronic reorganisations and pointless fights with medical professionals. We should start spending a half-decent amount of money on healthcare first, and if the NHS is still rubbish at that point then at least we are making a fair comparison.

I'm annoyed that the tories are using the NHS as a kind of human shield, and I'm annoyed that Labour's pandemic response is pathetic, but the bunch of right-wingers on here using the Tory-government-created crisis to justify implementing extremely right-wing economic decisions is probably worse than any of it.

So your view is: do nothing other than increase spending (as happens every year) and everything is the fault of the Tories?

Doing the same thing we’ve always done sounds like a great way to continue getting the results we’ve always got…

At some point we're going to have to do the unthinkable and stop testing and isolating.... Controversial!

That sounds dangerously like a sensible solution! As I understand it the NHS have already dispensed with the Covid app for staff etc. because (obviously) it means very little when working on a Covid ward.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

At some point we're going to have to do the unthinkable and stop testing and isolating.... Controversial!

Will be for some well connected Tories!!

Anyhow I agree and thats part of living with it and i do believe the thinking will come that way. Like any control system it takes a while for a demand to change something to be seen in a response. So my analogy is this is like a railway braking system - we are operating like a vacuum brake now with quite a lag on seeing action from an initiation of a brake demand but we will move to two pipe air then EP braking in how we respond to this over next 6-12 months.

 

[dave87016]

All these “expert scientists “ like Ferguson etc with their doom and gloom modelling projections which are always wishy washy do they have a wheel full of doom and gloom numbers on , give it one spin each day and go bandying it around to the media and goverment and to anyone who will get hysterical over it ?

 

[Eyersey468]

All these “expert scientists “ like Ferguson etc with their doom and gloom modelling projections which are always wishy washy do they have a wheel full of doom and gloom numbers on , give it one spin each day and go bandying it around to the media and goverment ?

I wouldn't put it past them

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

All these “expert scientists “ like Ferguson etc with their doom and gloom modelling projections which are always wishy washy do they have a wheel full of doom and gloom numbers on , give it one spin each day and go bandying it around to the media and goverment ?

I would have thought by now the govt would realise that all the previous modelling had low correlation with reality so my first question to them would have been - have yu worked out why the models were so poor and what have you done to re calibrate them .