Omicron variant and the measures implemented in response to it

[Nicholas Lewis]

What Fraser Nelson has aired (blown out of the water) is that the authorities use modelling as a tool to justify policy, not to inform it.

This will impact public confidence in Climate Change forecasts as well.

personally i see this as more of a tussle between living with Covid or trying to fight it. to my mind we have passed the Rubicon this week where the policy is moving towards how do we live with it and the modellers have unwittingly helped that change of direction.

 

[yorksrob]

The circuit breaker lockdown concept was tried in Wales in October 2020.

It didn't work.

Last I heard, a definition of idiocy was doing the same thing again and again and expecting a different outcome.......

TPO

Yes, that's certainly the example that springs to mind !

 

[brad465]

Apparently new data on the severity of Omicron is due on Wednesday, so any decision on further restrictions is likely to come that afternoon/evening.

 

[adc82140]

I'm off out to the Panto this evening (oh yes I am) which I rescheduled from 27th just in case the government does something stupid. I'll let you know how many no shows there are. It was nearly sold out according to the seat selector.

Full House. The people of Southampton are obviously not scared to leave the house.

 

[Drogba11CFC]

Apparently new data on the severity of Omicron is due on Wednesday, so any decision on further restrictions is likely to come that afternoon/evening.

"The hospitalisations have stayed consistently low, so we are going into lockdown just to be safe."

 

[21C101]

"The hospitalisations have stayed consistently low, so we are going into lockdown just to be safe."

Steve Baker, Fraser Nelson and all the other sceptical ministers haven't gone away you know.....

 

[John Luxton]

Does this mean we need to add a Covid prosecutions and disputes section to the forum?

Might be a good idea.

Whilst I will admit to smashing the rules since March 2020 I have not been caught.

Those that have either show "attitude" or fall victim to those set ups were a few PC Polds take the media along to to film / photograph people being caught at border crossings or well known tourist honey pots.

So don't turn up at Pen-y-pass or Betws-y-coed - but no one will notice you near Cwmorthin Quarry, Carreghofa, Arddleen, Chirk Bank etc. Giving a few secrets away there - but should BoJo or Dripford try it again I will find new locations as these have already been explored and photographed along with others not mentioned.

When I had multiple trips to Wales during lockdowns and when they wanted to keep Tier 3 people out I chose my destinations carefully. Also avoided the odd publicised main road checking places.

I can't substantiate the figures but it is claimed on anti lockdown groups that few of the fines dished out have been paid and many have been successfully appealed.

 

[Evolution]

Boris has clearly lost control of Government. You dont spend nearly three hours talking to announce...nothing

Contrast that to Nicola Sturgeon, who I dont agree with politically at all. She was asked a question today if Scot restrictions would change (realting to Christmas mixing) and she gave a clear answer.

Boris lost control many moons ago, the guy is an incompetent waffling buffoon. In any other industry he would have had his sandwiches wrapped in a roadmap.

We need to learn to live with this and any future varients, it's obvious by now, that the virus will continue to keep mutating, so restrictive measures are merely kicking the can down the road when looking at the picture as a whole.

 

[Aaron1]

I am just waiting for Neil Ferguson's latest set of projections, he'll project something like "if we don't lock down immediately then everybody in the world will be dead from Covid within a week"

 

[John Luxton]

I am just waiting for Neil Ferguson's latest set of projections, he'll project something like "if we don't lock down immediately then everybody in the world will be dead from Covid within a week"

Perhaps Vladimir Putin will render his projections wrong and nuke us all before then?

Latest let's scare the public headline from Daily Express web site

"World holds its breath! Putin starts countdown to war as major naval strait blocked off"​

Perhaps the press are more concerned that the public are not quite so bothered about Covid now so lets get every one scared over something else.

Or perhaps the predicted (third time this year) Solar Flares will knock us out if Vad's nukes don't?

Newspapers no longer seek to inform us - but keep the weak minded in particular in a perpetual state of fear?

Having lived through much of the cold war and the Cuban Missile Crisis as a young child I don't scare easily -but I suppose some, in particular the younger generation do?

 

[Drogba11CFC]

Perhaps Vladimir Putin will render his projections wrong and nuke us all before then?

Latest let's scare the public headline from Daily Express web site

"World holds its breath! Putin starts countdown to war as major naval strait blocked off"​

Perhaps the press are more concerned that the public are not quite so bothered about Covid now so lets get every one scared over something else.

I see their wheel of scaremongering landed on "Putin" this time around. I suspect that once he's made a tough guy statement for domestic comsumption, he sells it to the Express.

 

[Jonny]

I'm beginning to suspect you are actively trying to make the anti-lockdown argument sound ridiculous.

No doctor or medical professional has ever in my lifetime argued for lockdowns or other extreme impositions on society. But they have in the case of Covid. You think they're doing this for fun?

Some of them may have kept quiet in the past and regretted it,

Also they may have been fringe voices that the media played up. That is what you have to be careful of in terms of the media.

A few years back, my nan caught it in hospital. Despite it going around the ward and so it seeming almost certain she would get it, they discharged her anyway and barely hours after she was discharged she started being sick. While she was frail to begin with, she was never quite the same after that, a lot weaker.

My mother caught it from her and was unpleasantly ill for a fortnight or so.

I went to visit them both and, of course, caught it as well. While I recovered quicker than my mother, it was most unpleasant and very draining for quite some time afterwards.

Horrid thing.

I would agree, I have had two or three bouts of it over the years

You've been banging on for some time that the restrictions are there to "save the NHS". Well here's the thing, the NHS is not a charity, a stricken child or poorly puppy. It is a publicly funded, government run health service. We pay our tax to help fund it, and to help manage it. We are not the ones that should be forever curtailing facets of normal life to make things easier for the government and their appointed NHS managers. The NHS has been a cluster-you-know-what for decades, 2021-22 is no different from every year. The NHS has had nearly two years to work out how to deal with covid along with everything else it has to cope with. Maybe instead of buying hundreds of millions of pounds on dodgy PPE, billions on tests the government and their respective managers could have come up with better strategies to deal with it.

But no, its the fault of the nasty public and it is they that need to be blamed again. Well more and more people have had enough, too many people's lives have been messed up through restrictions which have wholeheartedly failed. That's on the government. That's one the NHS management. It is not on us.

Some people have turned the NHS into something of an idol; even if they didn't get down on their knees and worship it then they might as well have done.

If the NHS hasn’t adapted to cope with this two years in, despite essentially unlimited funding, whose fault is that??



I think the NHS has a God complex, to the extent that its senior management now apparently believe that society should be restricted annually to suit the health service.



Yes it is. It “collapses” every year. Why has no other affluent western country adopted the centralised top down healthcare model we have? Because it doesn’t work.

It is useful, and even up to 2019 for a politician to make any threat to it would have been electoral suicide.

Does this mean we need to add a Covid prosecutions and disputes section to the forum?

IMO it depends on whether they are transport-related or not. That is based on the fact that anything happening on a transport system, especially the railway, regarding covid regulations would fit in the main Disputes & Prosecutions forums.

What Fraser Nelson has aired (blown out of the water) is that the authorities use modelling as a tool to justify policy, not to inform it.

This will impact public confidence in Climate Change forecasts as well.

Simulations produce their output based on their input. Those responsible for the simulations will have a lot to answer. Ironically, they would be using the same simulated mechanics (if you will), so they could have produced alternative models with relatively little effort (re-run with different parameters).

The circuit breaker lockdown concept was tried in Wales in October 2020.

It didn't work.

Last I heard, a definition of idiocy was doing the same thing again and again and expecting a different outcome.......

I bet they blame England for not having one at the same time. After all, Starmer was pushing for one.

I am just waiting for Neil Ferguson's latest set of projections, he'll project something like "if we don't lock down immediately then everybody in the world will be dead from Covid within a week"

My concern is that some people would believe that without at least asking for more information. Which is a pity, because I would not mind him making a public fool of himself.

---

Perhaps Vladimir Putin will render his projections wrong and nuke us all before then?

Latest let's scare the public headline from Daily Express web site

"World holds its breath! Putin starts countdown to war as major naval strait blocked off"​

Perhaps the press are more concerned that the public are not quite so bothered about Covid now so lets get every one scared over something else.

Or perhaps the predicted (third time this year) Solar Flares will knock us out if Vad's nukes don't?

Newspapers no longer seek to inform us - but keep the weak minded in particular in a perpetual state of fear?

Having lived through much of the cold war and the Cuban Missile Crisis as a young child I don't scare easily -but I suppose some, in particular the younger generation do?

I was wondering if the Omicron variant was getting a lot of news time to distract us from something else. I had my suspicions that a dispute between two certain European nations was involved, the same two as above.

I see their wheel of scaremongering landed on "Putin" this time around. I suspect that once he's made a tough guy statement for domestic comsumption, he sells it to the Express.

That is about right, but a certain Professor Ferguson has a modus operandi of doing similar things with his dodgy models presented as though they were fact.

 

[clagmonster]

A good letter which I thoroughly support. Make sure you get yourself to a forum event some time and we can talk about football

Seconded. As a supporter of a Football League club, I actually found it harder knowing that the games were being played and I couldn't be there to support my team. I actually found it easier to completely avoid iFollow and have as little to do with football as possible for that season and a half.

As I cannot possibly condone vaccine passports, i am left in the draining position again of being without my club, though at least this time I have the Ladies team to support and local non league to watch. Although not part of the passport scheme, I daren't turn up to reserve or youth games for fear of the passports being demanded.

Always happy to talk football at an event.

For the record, due to relatively recent medical issues I shalln't go into on here, I have both jabs and the booster. I am not anti vaccine, but I am anti mandatory papers.

 

[bramling]

This of course is the difficulty.

Australia appears to have replicated many of the benefits of the NHS without the fundamental difficulities.

The less said about their hysterical Covid response the better though.

It doesn’t help that we have a situation where Labour claim to “own” the NHS, and it suits them electorally to propagate the notion that the Conservatives are only ever one step away from destroying it, knowing that it’s a vote cow for them because of the way people seem to worship it. Indeed this may to some extent explain why Labour are so keen to demonstrate support for the NHS in the form of imposing restrictions.

We certainly need to move away from all this, and have a proper discourse about the NHS, free from misty eyes. At the moment it has proven unprepared for a pandemic, and increasing numbers of people are having bad experiences when trying to use it.

 

[Yew]

This virus mutates rapidly so it might not just be a case of 'hey presto, 70% vaccination achieved'. It might evolve into s strain that the vaccine is less effective against as is suspected with the Omicron strain. There might be the requirement for an annual booster. That was my initial suspicion and what I've seen so far has only strengthened that.

I hope we don't end up with mandatory vaccine passports but they will only work if applied universally. I foresee a political/ethical power struggle playing out in this regard..

Nicola Sturgeon suits a tash like.

I think we have to be clear what 'the pandemic being over' means. No matter how much rhetoric Johnson puts out, Sars-Cov-2 isn't going away; it just won't be an issue, as we'll have high immunity to it and any variants.

 

[Bantamzen]

Some people have turned the NHS into something of an idol; even if they didn't get down on their knees and worship it then they might as well have done.

Indeed, for some the NHS has become a cult for whom they must obey & serve. From clapping & pot banging on a Thursday night, through guilting 100 year old veterans to walk around their garden, children being asked to draw rainbows, right up to the "save NHS at any cost to society" mantra, the NHS has moved from government run, publicly funded health organisation to something of a new religion.

 

[43066]

It is useful, and even up to 2019 for a politician to make any threat to it would have been electoral suicide.

Well maybe that’s the problem. No publicly funded institution should ever be placed beyond criticism. Doing so simply ensures that said system will never improve, because it has absolutely no incentive to do so.

If we’re being honest, most of us would admit it’s a pretty rubbish system. It delivers some of the worst results in the developed world in terms of cancer treatment etc. For much of the last two years it has “done” nothing other than Covid. It’s also a bottomless money pit despite being ringfenced and having a perpetually increasing budget. As I have observed previously, if our centralised healthcare system is so good, how come we are the only ones using it?!

Covid has shown its failings into sharp relief. Let’s face it we constantly hear about how the U.K. has one of the worst Covid death rates in the world. That’s only generally mentioned when attacking politicians, but how much responsibility for it should actually be laid at the door of the NHS itself?

NHS faces questions over Covid infections contracted in hospital | Coronavirus | The Guardian

As bereaved families seek answers, number of cases and alleged failings cause concern in England<br>

amp.theguardian.com

Figures published by NHS England suggest that 39,088 people were likely to have been infected with Covid-19 in hospitals between 1 August last year and 21 February 2021.

If we can’t have an adult conversation about it could be improved it’ll never change. Despite Covid, it seems we still can’t, so it wont.

 

[21C101]

Drakeford has reminded us how we would be living now if Labour were in power, and why I suspect, providing Johnson holds his nerve, the Tories will be back in front in the opinion polls before January is out.

"The Welsh Government have announced fans will be unable to attend sporting fixtures [even non league fixtures] in the country from Boxing Day amid the surge of coronavirus cases across the United Kingdom.

First Minister Mark Drakeford had sought extra information on how the Omicron variant operates in the outdoors.

And after gathering the relevant data, the decision was reached that sporting events at all levels in Wales from December 26 would be played behind closed doors.

I would love to know what this data showing rapid outdoor spread of Omnicom in windswept non league grounds with about 100 supporters spread round the ground is?

Mark Drakeford explains ban on sports fans at games amid changes to restrictions

The Welsh Government has announced an exception to the restrictions on sporting events in Wales which come into effect from Boxing Day

www.walesonline.co.uk

 

[35B]

He is first among equals with his cabinet, not SAGE. They are there to advise, nothing more.

Quite agree

 

[Red Onion]

Drakeford has reminded us how we would be living now if Labour were in power, and why I suspect, providing Johnson holds his nerve, the Tories will be back in front in the opinion polls before January is out.


I would love to know what this data showing rapid outdoor spread of Omnicom in windswept non league grounds with about 100 supporters spread round the ground is?

Mark Drakeford explains ban on sports fans at games amid changes to restrictions

The Welsh Government has announced an exception to the restrictions on sporting events in Wales which come into effect from Boxing Day

www.walesonline.co.uk

Just like nightclubs, another area covered by vaccine passports designed to “keep them open” and “stop the spread.” And yet they are being closed down too. It shows just how utterly ineffective they are beyond being discriminatory. I really hope that someone in power will see that and potentially just remove them, though I suspect there will still be spurious “evidence” of just how super effective they are…

 

[island]

All C19 fines have about the same status as a car parking ticket and appear to operate in the same way with a discount if paid early which I don't think happens with normal fines.

This means they are really just a penalty charge notice from what I understand thus no one is criminalised if they are unlucky to get caught. But most were not caught last time.

Not quite right. Some offences have a 50% first offence/prompt payment discount, but others and repeat offences do not. Anyone who gets caught, is issued a fixed penalty notice, and pays will avoid court and a conviction, but non-payment can result in prosecution.

In this respect to continue your car analogy they are more akin to "moving violations" than parking.

 

[nedchester]

Indeed, for some the NHS has become a cult for whom they must obey & serve. From clapping & pot banging on a Thursday night, through guilting 100 year old veterans to walk around their garden, children being asked to draw rainbows, right up to the "save NHS at any cost to society" mantra, the NHS has moved from government run, publicly funded health organisation to something of a new religion.

I am a big supporter of the NHS but I cannot help but agree with this. It should be properly funded and part of the issue at the moment is as the result of 11 years of under investment.

Drakeford has reminded us how we would be living now if Labour were in power, and why I suspect, providing Johnson holds his nerve, the Tories will be back in front in the opinion polls before January is out.


I would love to know what this data showing rapid outdoor spread of Omnicom in windswept non league grounds with about 100 supporters spread round the ground is?

Mark Drakeford explains ban on sports fans at games amid changes to restrictions

The Welsh Government has announced an exception to the restrictions on sporting events in Wales which come into effect from Boxing Day

www.walesonline.co.uk

Natural Labour supporter (and still am because I loathe the Tories and especially Johnson and what he stands for); however on this issue I cannot support Labour's stance on reintroducing restrictions.

 

[initiation]

I'm sure we are in for another rollercoaster of a day today and tomorrow. What fun.

What absolutely needs to happen is for no more restrictions. Cases will naturally stop rising and hospitaliations remain at modest levels (nothing like January). A not unreasonable scenario considering the tentative data from South Africa and others. This will surely expose Sage, the modelling and the hysteria around omicron as a busted flush (although I would have thought the summer would have done that to the modelling).

On the other hand, if restrictions are introduced, any stabilisation/decline will 'prove' the fear was jutified and the worth of restrictions. We are then in a very dangerous position for the rest of winter and years to come.

 

[John Luxton]

Some of them may have kept quiet in the past and regretted it,

Also they may have been fringe voices that the media played up. That is what you have to be careful of in terms of the media.


I would agree, I have had two or three bouts of it over the years


Some people have turned the NHS into something of an idol; even if they didn't get down on their knees and worship it then they might as well have done.


It is useful, and even up to 2019 for a politician to make any threat to it would have been electoral suicide.


IMO it depends on whether they are transport-related or not. That is based on the fact that anything happening on a transport system, especially the railway, regarding covid regulations would fit in the main Disputes & Prosecutions forums.


Simulations produce their output based on their input. Those responsible for the simulations will have a lot to answer. Ironically, they would be using the same simulated mechanics (if you will), so they could have produced alternative models with relatively little effort (re-run with different parameters).


I bet they blame England for not having one at the same time. After all, Starmer was pushing for one.


My concern is that some people would believe that without at least asking for more information. Which is a pity, because I would not mind him making a public fool of himself.

---

I was wondering if the Omicron variant was getting a lot of news time to distract us from something else. I had my suspicions that a dispute between two certain European nations was involved, the same two as above.


That is about right, but a certain Professor Ferguson has a modus operandi of doing similar things with his dodgy models presented as though they were fact.

In this respect to continue your car analogy they are more akin to "moving violations" than parking.

Thanks for update on that.

 

[yorkie]

I don't agree with people who make the claim that vaccines are less effective against Omicron; it's a highly misleading claim as the purpose of a vaccine is to protect against severe illness, hospitalisations and deaths and the vaccines continue to be effective in that regard.

The people who claim vaccines are less effective against Omicron are either very misguided or are being disingenuous; they are saying that you are more likely to be infected with Omicron, but that's likely principally due to the nature of Omicron replicating much more in the upper respiratory tract compared to Delta.

Protection against infection is not a fair measure of vaccine effectiveness; people who suggest a vaccine is ineffective just because it does not prevent an infection are setting a very high bar and missing the point of vaccines.

In order to get the best possible immunity, I think we need exposure to the full virus, not just the spike. If a vaccine becomes available that includes more of the virus and is perhaps updated in some way that makes it a closer match for variants that are circulating at the time, then maybe another dose may be worth getting at that time; until/unless that happens, we probably need a full exposure to the actual virus in order to get the broadest possible immune response. We should not be hiding from the virus and expecting we can avoid being exposed to it as that is simply unrealistic and is not an approach we take with any other respiratory virus.

(note: the above was posted as areply to a post in another thread but is probably a better fit for this thread)

I'm sure we are in for another rollercoaster of a day today and tomorrow. What fun.

What absolutely needs to happen is for no more restrictions. Cases will naturally stop rising and hospitaliations remain at modest levels (nothing like January). A not unreasonable scenario considering the tentative data from South Africa and others. This will surely expose Sage, the modelling and the hysteria around omicron as a busted flush (although I would have thought the summer would have done that to the modelling).

On the other hand, if restrictions are introduced, any stabilisation/decline will 'prove' the fear was jutified and the worth of restrictions. We are then in a very dangerous position for the rest of winter and years to come.

Indeed; Sage must be desperate for restrictions because they know that based on the data from South Africa, a natural fall will occur within a matter of weeks if no restrictions are imposed. This could ruin their (already very poor) reputations.

Drakeford has reminded us how we would be living now if Labour were in power,...

A vote for Labour is a vote for restrictions and lockdowns. We must remember that when we are next at the ballot box.

 

[yorksrob]

If SAGE want to do something useful, instead of continually bleating about restrictions, why don't they get on and review the self isolation period.

 

[Eyersey468]

I understand what you are saying @yorkie and I agree we do need exposure to the full virus, however I don't trust this government not to try and effectively make a booster an annual thing for everyone. I don't believe everyone needs an annual booster.

 

[DustyBin]

If SAGE want to do something useful, instead of continually bleating about restrictions, why don't they get on and review the self isolation period.

You’ve answered your own question there…… That would actually be useful!

 

[Drogba11CFC]

If SAGE want to do something useful, instead of continually bleating about restrictions, why don't they get on and review the self isolation period.

But they don't want to do something useful.

 

[John Luxton]

We certainly need to move away from all this, and have a proper discourse about the NHS, free from misty eyes. At the moment it has proven unprepared for a pandemic, and increasing numbers of people are having bad experiences when trying to use it.

Exactly. Whilst fortunately I have never really required its services my parents did in later life my father in the late naughties and my mother between 2014.

I won't bore everyone what exactly happened but put it this way I wasn't exactly happy. Yes, they were elderly but deserved better.

My mother was particularly badly treated after breaking her leg in 2014. Lost her mobility thanks to lack of physio.

She was sent to a rehab centre for a month and all she did until a few days before discharge was sit around. My mother was bored stiff and from what she told me staff kept asking her daft questions the nature of which appeared both to her and myself designed to do a box ticking exercise to ascertain if she had dimentia, which she didn't. They would have done better to have got her mobile again.

When she was in both hospital and rehab centre no body made a point of speaking to me and when I did approach a doctor doing his rounds the response to my questions was "Don't ask me I am only the duty Doctor!". That really piddled me off. In my job if I was asked a question I would make a point of finding out or giving the contact details of someone who could provide information.

When her time for discharge approached they hurriedly gave her some exercises on using a Zimmer frame and then discharged her after someone from social services spoke to me.

They gave her a non folding Zimmer which didn't fit the car, some risers for her bed and for the sofa and that was it. I ended up buying her a decent wheelchair and better Zimmer.

She never regained her mobility and spiralled down hill until her demise in 2020.

Yes she was elderly but she had been fit and active until tripping she deserved much better. I dare say there are many others who have had similar experiences to mine.

That is why the NHS needs a total rebuild.