Omicron variant and the measures implemented in response to it

[21C101]

The Times released an article at 2.30pm claiming no further restrictions are to be imposed before Christmas:

The Times & The Sunday Times

News and opinion from The Times & The Sunday Times

www.thetimes.co.uk

Whether a post-Christmas circuit breaker is considered still isn't clear, but Sunak seems to stand out as a strong rebel for further restrictions, but JRM, Shapps, Kwarteng and Liz Truss also seem to be opposed/concerned about more restrictions as well.

The reports I have seen said that a large number of cabinet ministers concluded "insufficient evidence" so case for further resurictions not proven.

I think we owe Fraser Nelson a great debt.

As just Mr Johnson. Nelson has enabled him to face down Labour and the Health-Industral Complex who have rabudly been calling for locdown and I suspect will be a busted flush when by the new year it is obvious that they were crying wolf on a monumental scale.

Ironically it migbt be partygate which, by turning the public against lockdown has saved the day

 

[bramling]

The reports I have seen said that a large number of cabinet ministers concluded "insufficient evidence" so case for further resurictions not proven.

I think we owe Fraser Nelson a great debt.

As just Mr Johnson. Nelson has enabled him to face down Labour and the Health-Industral Complex who have rabudly been calling for locdown and I suspect will be a busted flush when by the new year it is obvious that they were crying wolf on a monumental scale.

Ironically it migbt be partygate which, by turning the public against lockdown has saved the day

So the backbenchers have won this round of the power struggle.

Now let's watch SAGE go into overdrive.

Johnson looks completely beaten-up!

 

[quantinghome]

Pointless? No it's not. If it's such big crisis why isn't it being seen? The fact that numbers are still so low makes the whole thing a farce.

And another week? We were supposed to know now!!

Since the first wave of Covid hit the UK in March 2020, it's been well known that deaths lag hospitalisations which in turn lag infections.

We'd all like to know now (!!!!!) But that's not the way it works.

The earliest indication we will have is whether the increase we've seen in hospitalisations in London turns into increased fatalities.

 

[21C101]

I'm beginning to suspect you are actively trying to make the anti-lockdown argument sound ridiculous.

No doctor or medical professional has ever in my lifetime argued for lockdowns or other extreme impositions on society. But they have in the case of Covid. You think they're doing this for fun?

You are arguing for lockdown to stop staff shortages at hospitals functioning properly.

It is itrrelevant which disease causes this situation once you have accepted the argument that hospital shortages justify shutting the country down.

And yes, I am aware that until Covid they did not argue for this, which is why it is so worrying that they are attempting to set such a precedent.

 

[Bungle73]

Since the first wave of Covid hit the UK in March 2020, it's been well known that deaths lag hospitalisations which in turn lag infections.

We'd all like to know now (!!!!!) But that's not the way it works.

The earliest indication we will have is whether the increase we've seen in hospitalisations in London turns into increased fatalities.

Not the way it works? Moving the goalposts yet again!!

 

[brad465]

We're spared more measures...for now:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-59724766

No new measures but situation under constant review - PM​

Boris Johnson has just been speaking after this afternoon's cabinet meeting.
He says ministers agree the current situation is "extremely difficult".
"The arguments either way are finely balanced," he says noting that cases of Omicron are "surging and hospitalisations are rising quite steeply in London".
He says that the government will keep data under "constant review" and that "we will have to reserve the possibility of taking further action to protect the public and our NHS".
"We won't hesitate to take action," he says. urging the public to exercise caution and get vaccinated.
"It could not be more urgent," he adds.
Asked what kind of measures the government will take he replies: "We're looking at all kinds of things... we will rule nothing out."

 

[quantinghome]

Changing the goalposts yet again!!

What on earth are you talking about?

I'll say it again. The absolute state of this thread.

 

[Bungle73]

What on earth are you talking about?

I'll say it again. The absolute state of this thread.

I'm talking about the fact that when when masks were brought back we were told it would be for 3 weeks because then we'd have "more data". But apparently now that has turned out to be yet another lie. I really do think that the pro-lockdown brigade make it up as you going along. We already know the data we're supposed to be relying on has been skewed to look bad.

 

[bramling]

We're spared more measures...for now:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-59724766

A slightly better performance from Johnson than we've been used to of late, no doubt because he's been well and truly beaten up from inside the Conservative party.

A few takeaways:

* Door firmly open for restrictions being implemented. Could certainly be a case of keeping a lid on people for now, and then we go for restrictions straight after Christmas.

* Businesses under the bus (reading between the lines, it seems Sunak has put his foot down, perhaps?)

* Alcohol is apparently okay at work!

 

[MikeWM]

Are you aware of what Norovirus can do to a elderly person?

A few years back, my nan caught it in hospital. Despite it going around the ward and so it seeming almost certain she would get it, they discharged her anyway and barely hours after she was discharged she started being sick. While she was frail to begin with, she was never quite the same after that, a lot weaker.

My mother caught it from her and was unpleasantly ill for a fortnight or so.

I went to visit them both and, of course, caught it as well. While I recovered quicker than my mother, it was most unpleasant and very draining for quite some time afterwards.

Horrid thing.

 

[bramling]

I'll say it again. The absolute state of this thread.

If the point you're trying to make is that the opinions on this thread are out of step with majority public opinion, the proof will perhaps be how many people voluntarily curtail their mixing plans over the next few days. A walk around a typical town centre will be quite revealing, I suspect.

 

[adc82140]

I'm off out to the Panto this evening (oh yes I am) which I rescheduled from 27th just in case the government does something stupid. I'll let you know how many no shows there are. It was nearly sold out according to the seat selector.

 

[LiftFan]

Indeed, which is precisely how social credit systems work.

Note how many of the 'restrictions' we've had have involved getting permission to do something ('need to wear a mask', 'need to sign in', 'need to check there aren't too many people in here already', 'need to book ahead') that previously we've done freely.

We've got fairly used to this behaviour change, and it appears we're about to have one more round of it, so then they can 'make it all easier' with a Covid app (or, as they are experimenting with in Sweden, a microchip implanted in the wrist - yep, another conspiracy theory comes true...)

Tin-foil-hat time? Maybe, but doesn't it seem rather closer and rather more likely now, than when I was saying the same things 15 months ago?

Honestly one thing I'd be worried about is whether they'd utilise this kind of thing under the guise of stopping climate change. "Sorry, we can't allow you to book this flight as our records show you've driven xxx amount of miles in a car and eaten xxx amount of meat this year"

 

[21C101]

A slightly better performance from Johnson than we've been used to of late, no doubt because he's been well and truly beaten up from inside the Conservative party.

A few takeaways:

* Door firmly open for restrictions being implemented. Could certainly be a case of keeping a lid on people for now, and then we go for restrictions straight after Christmas.

Equally, unless they come up with better evidence, I don't see the "anti" ministers changing their minds.

* Businesses under the bus (reading between the lines, it seems Sunak has put his foot down, perhaps?)

He probably feels emboldened by Partygate weakening Johnson.

* Alcohol is apparently okay at work!

It is in many occupations, especially in office environments.

In fact it wasn't that many decades ago that it was on the railway and you could go to the bar on the top floor of Southern House and have a pint or five at Lunchtime...

 

[quantinghome]

If the point you're trying to make is that the opinions on this thread are out of step with majority public opinion, the proof will perhaps be how many people voluntarily curtail their mixing plans over the next few days. A walk around a typical town centre will be quite revealing, I suspect.

The point I'm making is that Railforums is in general a really good site for genuinely useful discussion. Members are receptive to different views, willing to have their minds changed, there's give and take, usually an attempt to get to the bottom of issues. If facts are presented they are often challenged but rarely dismissed out of hand. And there are plenty of members with decades of experience on the railways who regularly make insightful comments. It's a genuine pleasure to take part.

Then there's this sub-forum, which isn't any of those things. It's like being sucked through a wormhole to a different planet where there's lots of heat, but no light.

 

[21C101]

The point I'm making is that Railforums is in general a really good site for genuinely useful discussion. Members are receptive to different views, willing to have their minds changed, there's give and take, usually an attempt to get to the bottom of issues. If facts are presented they are often challenged but rarely dismissed out of hand. And there are plenty of members with decades of experience on the railways who regularly make insightful comments. It's genuine pleasure to take part.

Then there's this sub-forum, which isn't any of those things. It's like being sucked through a wormhole to a different planet.

Does it not occur to you that you might, just conceivably be even slightly wrong and that so might the great and good in the medical elites?

All you seem to do is parrot their orthodoxy as if you are writing from NHS HQ Press Office.

Mind you, I'm pretty sure that at least one poster in the main forums is doing precisely that role in NRs PR department.

 

[MikeWM]

Honestly one thing I'd be worried about is whether they'd utilise this kind of thing under the guise of stopping climate change. "Sorry, we can't allow you to book this flight as our records show you've driven xxx amount of miles in a car and eaten xxx amount of meat this year"

Exactly. Once it is introduced and we're used to having to get permission to do things - based on whether we've done something the government 'asks' us to do, or not - they can impose any number of conditions on any number of things. And climate change would definitely be high on the list of excuses used to roll out all sorts of 'allowances' and 'limitations' on our activities and freedoms.

(And in case anyone is wondering - I do believe that climate change is happening, is largely or entirely man-made, and needs to be addressed with reasonable urgency. However, I very much do *not* like how it is used as an excuse for any old thing the government feel like doing).

 

[bramling]

The point I'm making is that Railforums is in general a really good site for genuinely useful discussion. Members are receptive to different views, willing to have their minds changed, there's give and take, usually an attempt to get to the bottom of issues. If facts are presented they are often challenged but rarely dismissed out of hand. And there are plenty of members with decades of experience on the railways who regularly make insightful comments. It's a genuine pleasure to take part.

Then there's this sub-forum, which isn't any of those things. It's like being sucked through a wormhole to a different planet where there's lots of heat, but no light.

That may well be because many of the arguments presented here are quite well backed up with evidence, and (2 years in to this) much has proven pretty prophetic.

It may well be the case that this section is a little bit ahead of full-on public opinion, but it certainly isn't another planet. People really are sick of all this now.

 

[Bantamzen]

What on earth are you talking about?

I'll say it again. The absolute state of this thread.

You've been banging on for some time that the restrictions are there to "save the NHS". Well here's the thing, the NHS is not a charity, a stricken child or poorly puppy. It is a publicly funded, government run health service. We pay our tax to help fund it, and to help manage it. We are not the ones that should be forever curtailing facets of normal life to make things easier for the government and their appointed NHS managers. The NHS has been a cluster-you-know-what for decades, 2021-22 is no different from every year. The NHS has had nearly two years to work out how to deal with covid along with everything else it has to cope with. Maybe instead of buying hundreds of millions of pounds on dodgy PPE, billions on tests the government and their respective managers could have come up with better strategies to deal with it.

But no, its the fault of the nasty public and it is they that need to be blamed again. Well more and more people have had enough, too many people's lives have been messed up through restrictions which have wholeheartedly failed. That's on the government. That's one the NHS management. It is not on us.

 

[quantinghome]

Does it not occur to you that you might, just conceivably be even slightly wrong and that so might the great and good in the medical elites?

I appreciate I've made a lot of posts on this thread and it's unreasonable for you to track back to find out my views. Nevertheless in the 'cut and thrust' of this enlightening debate it appears the nuance of my argument may have been lost.

So to quickly recap my position, I'm not yet convinced that there is a need for more restrictions on Omicron. That's because we don't know enough about it yet, and how serious it may be. As I've said before, I hope it turns out to be nothing to worry about. But we'd don't know yet. Restrictions may be needed, they may not. I don't know. And neither do you or anyone else on this forum unless you have access to a time machine.

Separately, I've been attempting to explain what "protect the NHS" actually means. That it means "protect people" by trying to ensure that the NHS has capacity to treat those who need it. Now, it may well be that Omicron doesn't overwhelm the NHS, that it doesn't fall over, and that people having heart attacks aren't turned away from A&E. And I'd be very happy if that turns out to be the case.

So might I be wrong? No, because I don't know what's going to happen anyway! But I would tend to trust the views of "the great and good in the medical elites" over random forumers.

 

[backontrack]

What on earth has people's view on the EU got to do with this? Some of the most anti-lockdown people on here are pro-EU.

I was a Remainer. I think there's a difference between support for the EU, whether tentative or enthusiastic, and the way that many Twitter uses with #FBPE on their profiles seem to promote lockdown.

For those in the middle class who believe they have 'enlightened' third-way neoliberal values, siding with the scientists - who also 'know better' than the hoi-polloi - seems to be a badge of honour. It's a weird phenomenon.

 

[NorthKent1989]

How can we possibly have more restrictions? What would be the point? Omicron is less severe than delta

Quite frankly I’m sick and tired of bedwetters begging for more restrictions for a virus that we must live with? Don’t these people care about mental health or people’s livelihoods?

I want 2022 to be free of any restrictions whatsoever, I’m done

 

[backontrack]

You've been banging on for some time that the restrictions are there to "save the NHS". Well here's the thing, the NHS is not a charity, a stricken child or poorly puppy. It is a publicly funded, government run health service. We pay our tax to help fund it, and to help manage it. We are not the ones that should be forever curtailing facets of normal life to make things easier for the government and their appointed NHS managers. The NHS has been a cluster-you-know-what for decades, 2021-22 is no different from every year. The NHS has had nearly two years to work out how to deal with covid along with everything else it has to cope with. Maybe instead of buying hundreds of millions of pounds on dodgy PPE, billions on tests the government and their respective managers could have come up with better strategies to deal with it.

But no, its the fault of the nasty public and it is they that need to be blamed again. Well more and more people have had enough, too many people's lives have been messed up through restrictions which have wholeheartedly failed. That's on the government. That's one the NHS management. It is not on us.

If we want to save the NHS, we should vote the Tories out! Absolute wreckers.

 

[asw22]

It is only one week since Plan B was implemented, recommending several restrictions like work from home where possible.
Also the school holidays start this week.
Many people have cancelled parties etc over the past 7 days or so and are using lateral flow tests regularly to protect christmas day.
Boosters are almost 1 million per day

The rate of increase of cases has slowed a bit - the first 3 measures should start to help mitigate against the spread.

Delta showed a slightly different strategy compared to previous strains - as the road map was allowed to continue - some say that it was released too quickly (forgetting the original release date was put back from June). Was the NHS overwhelmed?

A lockdown is only really a short term strategy to buy time in order to find something more effective longer term.
Two years ago there were no vaccines, no proven antivirals, and no covid virtual wards - surely these should be the preferred way forwards?

 

[Lampshade]

I'm pretty sick and tired of hearing about the NHS, and how we need to have our lives restricted to "protect" it. If the NHS can't do the job it is there to do without such draconian restrictions on people every few months than maybe it's time we looked at a better system.

Which is probably why the Tories are doing it.

 

[21C101]

I was a Remainer. I think there's a difference between support for the EU, whether tentative or enthusiastic, and the way that many Twitter uses with #FBPE on their profiles seem to promote lockdown.

For those in the middle class who believe they have 'enlightened' third-way neoliberal values, siding with the scientists - who also 'know better' than the hoi-polloi - seems to be a badge of honour. It's a weird phenomenon.

The FBPE lot are wealthy middle class types who disproportionately benefited from EU membership (simpler frequent foreign holidays and cheaper domestic staff due to EU freedom of movement).

Similarly they are disproportionately insulated from the downside of lockdown as they live in large agreeable houses and have jobs that can be done at home in organisations that won't be bankrupted by lockdown.

 

[Cdd89]

So to quickly recap my position, I'm not yet convinced that there is a need for more restrictions on Omicron. That's because we don't know enough about it yet, and how serious it may be. As I've said before, I hope it turns out to be nothing to worry about. But we'd don't know yet. Restrictions may be needed, they may not.

On this point, I fully agree with you. In the interests of full disclosure, if the NHS were overloaded (or certain to be overloaded) to the point of being unable to treat critical cases, I would support restrictions for that period, primarily in the form of business closures and on gatherings.

Where we depart is that I am seeing increasing evidence by the day that, while it will be very bad in terms of cases/sickness and quite in terms of impact (I don’t see 5000 hospitalisations per day as inconceivable), it will likely not meet the threshold described above.

Data out of South Africa and Denmark, in relation to both hospitalisation and peaking of cases, as well as huge booster uptake in the at-risk population with known efficacy against Omicron, are all strongly in our favour. With Delta, the media was filled with grim imagery from India of panicked doctors - it was horrible to watch. I have not yet seen the same reporting in relation to Omicron from case-leader countries.

I get the impression - and I apologise if I have misread you! - that you downplay these optimistic signs while emphasising the uncertainty. My perspective is that if we are overloaded to the threshold described above, it will be because something unexpected has happened.

 

[21C101]

If we want to save the NHS, we should vote the Tories out! Absolute wreckers.

Quite frankly at the moment I would be more likely to vote for the Tories if they promised to abolish it.

It is wholly dysfunctional and I am furious that my freedom to go about my business freely is now a conditional freedom that the NHS can repeal upon request if they are in a spot of bother with too many customers and not enough staff.

They are not feudal Lords!

I suspect a lot of people in the UK will see the NHS in a very different light after this.

 

[duncanp]

I think we should lock down the whole country when there are too many staff shortages with train crews.

After all it elimates the risk of a crush at a station and eliminates the risk of more deaths in the roads due to commuters switching to driving.

After all if it saves one life it's worth it!

Didn't someone say the other week that, every day, 500 people die within 28 days of eating a potato?

And yet we wouldn't put "eating a potato" on the death certificate.

So should we ban potatoes, just to "..keep everyone safe.."?

 

[MikeWM]

Which is probably why the Tories are doing it.

It is definitely the case that if the Tories had been *trying* to turn those who 2 years ago were passionate defenders of the NHS - like myself - against it, they could hardly have done a better job.

Which, occasionally, has indeed crossed my mind