Open Access operators should start looking elswhere to serve

[A S Leib]

If there was a curve connecting the Snow Hill lines to the WCML, I could see an alternative London - Glasgow service running London Marylebone - Banbury - Moor Street - Snow Hill - Wolverhampton - Stoke - Manchester Piccadilly - Blackburn - Settle - Kirkby Stephen - Appleby - Carlisle - Dumfries - Kilmarnock - Paisley Gilmour Street - Glasgow Central. Although that’s a lot of stops, so it may need to be broken down (London - Manchester, London - Carlisle, London - Glasgow).

I don't see how that would take less than eight hours end-to-end when the first-stop Warrington Avanti services are 4:30, at which point you'd be struggling to compete with coaches time-wise, let alone other train services (and Paisley Gilmour Street isn't even accessible from Kilmarnock without going via Glasgow or the Ayrshire coast as far as I know).

Looking at the busiest flows with no current direct services (including and excluding London), and taking ones out where there's no direct service because there's direct services to another station in the same town / city, the only somewhat popular ones now which aren't very short journeys seem to be Brighton – Horsham (Arun Valley might have capacity; I'm guessing the BML and West Coastway don't), Oxford – Bristol (and that's getting at least one direct service from September, I think), Newcastle – Glasgow (as is being discussed in the LNER Glasgow / Stirling withdrawal thread) and ones to / from southeastern branches e.g. Chelmsford – Southend and Henley – Paddington / Reading.

 

[The Planner]

You've got access to places like Reading, Oxford, Bournemouth, etc from Moor Street and from Snow Hill you've got the South West as well as Reading and Oxford, so places like Bristol, Cardiff, Plymouth could be used etc. Especially as WMR run a 10/20 frequency and have no current intention of evening it out or reinserting the missing services, the paths from those could be used by a OAO maybe.

Plus Moor Street/Snow Hill could be used as a calling point en route from a smaller station to one of those destinations (for example the former branch platform at Langley Green could be reinstated and used, or work with the SVR to run a Brum to Bewdley commuter service as an extension of a longer distance OAO route from Brum)

You would never break even. Presumably the OAO is paying for the reinstatement at Langley Green, as NR would have no interest.

 

[Masboroughlad]

Surprised the Blackpool OA service plan didn't get reinstated, or taken by another player.

Pity some TOCs don't go off-piste again, like in the early days.

 

[Chester1]

I really don’t see how LUMO brings anything new at all to the market and I’d like to bet that 99% of its passengers are abstracted from LNER, despite all LUMO’s guff about competing with airlines. Where LUMO could bring something new is if it became the vehicle for DfT’s experiments with removing off peak flexible tickets from the ECML, and the DfT left LNER alone to provide a decent flexible service connecting ALL the towns and cities on the ECML. I do get the impression that DfT think that the only purpose of the ECML is to get Londoners to and from the Edinburgh Festival quickly.

I don't know if the main issue's a lack of will on Lumo's part or a lack of capacity on the ECML, but if all Lumo services called at Stevenage it would be easier to claim that they were attracting passengers who'd otherwise have gone to Luton or Stansted.

Its not guff. Lumo's operation has coincided with a significant modal shift away from air travel for Edinburgh - London journeys. To pass the abstraction test an OAO needs to demonstrate that 30% of passengers would not have otherwise travelled by rail.

The OPs routes are not viable. Imagine a Voyager or 80X travelling around the Cumbrian Coast! London - Windermere might work as an Avanti service at weekends but there are too many infrastructure problems on the branch for it to be practical.

 

[JonathanH]

Surprised the Blackpool OA service plan didn't get reinstated, or taken by another player.

Do the Avanti trains into Blackpool load well? They seem to just use Blackpool North as a convenient reversal point.

 

[A S Leib]

Do the Avanti trains into Blackpool load well? They seem to just use Blackpool North as a convenient reversal point.

~150 passengers per day to / from Euston, Crewe, Wolverhampton, Birmingham New Street, Coventry and Milton Keynes Central. With three or four direct trains per day it's almost certain that some of those would be changing at Preston, although I don't know how much more demand destinations via but not on the WCML provide (e.g. if somebody going from Blackpool to Oxford would be more likely to change at Wolverhampton or Manchester Piccadilly).

 

[AzureOtsu]

I'd love to see an open access compete with the Brighton to Cardiff central route forcing GWR to actually provide a decent service

 

[cle]

~150 passengers per day to / from Euston, Crewe, Wolverhampton, Birmingham New Street, Coventry and Milton Keynes Central. With three or four direct trains per day it's almost certain that some of those would be changing at Preston, although I don't know how much more demand destinations via but not on the WCML provide (e.g. if somebody going from Blackpool to Oxford would be more likely to change at Wolverhampton or Manchester Piccadilly).

I would love to know how many folks travel between Blackpool and Oxford.

As mentioned, it's a convenient place to turn trains. Yes it is a large settlement, but a very poor one with little outbound demand. And much closer connections to the NW than to London or the Midlands. And yes, Glasgow jokes. But in seriousness, people in the South do not go to Blackpool in meaningful numbers. It's not in the zeitgeist for seaside places, at all. Weather is worse, food inedible, it's rough and horrible.

I personally would have an hourly service to Lancaster instead - either via TV or WMids. Covers a lot of the Crewe-Lancs demand, and it has onward connections too.

 

[A S Leib]

As mentioned, it's a convenient place to turn trains. Yes it is a large settlement, but a very poor one with little outbound demand. And much closer connections to the NW than to London or the Midlands. And yes, Glasgow jokes. But in seriousness, people in the South do not go to Blackpool in meaningful numbers. It's not in the zeitgeist for seaside places, at all. Weather is worse, food inedible, it's rough and horrible.

Would it be possible to have a regular all-stations northern WCML service (Oxenholme, Penrith, Carlisle, Lockerbie, Carstairs, Motherwell)? Although I doubt there's tonnes of demand between them except possibly to / from Oxenholme for the Lakes at times, and taking Oxenholme / Penrith / Motherwell calls off of Warrington fasts wouldn't save much time or be massively popular, I'd suspect.

 

[43096]

Would it be possible to have a regular all-stations northern WCML service (Oxenholme, Penrith, Carlisle, Lockerbie, Carstairs, Motherwell)? Although I doubt there's tonnes of demand between them except possibly to / from Oxenholme for the Lakes at times, and taking Oxenholme / Penrith / Motherwell calls off of Warrington fasts wouldn't save much time or be massively popular, I'd suspect.

That's not exactly the sort of business case needed for an Open Access operator!

 

[JonathanH]

I'd love to see an open access compete with the Brighton to Cardiff central route forcing GWR to actually provide a decent service

Are you sure it would 'force' GWR to provide a decent service?

Same route, same infrastructure, same congestion. Even if there were some hypothetical clear path on the route which there isn't, or perhaps GWR were somehow forced to give up half their paths between Portsmouth and Cardiff for an open access operator, exactly how would it be better?

 

[Clarence Yard]

I'd love to see an open access compete with the Brighton to Cardiff central route forcing GWR to actually provide a decent service

Force GWR? No chance - they are not on the hook for any revenue loss so why would they bother to do anything. With the Government paying all their bills and taking all their revenue, they won’t be too fussed, unless the DfT instructs them to do something.

 

[Eskimo]

GWR seem to be doing a good job of keeping OAO’s out of their territory in recent years - Paignton, Weston-super-Mare, Cheltenham Spa etc. all seem to have fairly new, and regular, Paddington services.

 

[JJmoogle]

GWR seem to be doing a good job of keeping OAO’s out of their territory in recent years - Paignton, Weston-super-Mare, Cheltenham Spa etc. all seem to have fairly new, and regular, Paddington services.

They sort of swallowed up the only existing and original OAO(Heathrow Express) on the route too.

The Grand Union to West Wales express looks pretty interesting but I still don't know when that's actually going to start, I thought it was the end of this year but... where are the trains?

 

[The Planner]

They sort of swallowed up the only existing and original OAO(Heathrow Express) on the route too.

The Grand Union to West Wales express looks pretty interesting but I still don't know when that's actually going to start, I thought it was the end of this year but... where are the trains?

Dec 25, if it does.

 

[NSE]

Yeah, a lot of people seem to have this romantic idea an OAO ‘forces’ a provider to improve, but in reality, the only successful ones (Grand Central & Hull) are successful because they broke into untapped markets. Yes, Hull was served 1tpd by the ECML intercity operator, but that’s hardly a ‘tapped market’ on that frequency. If an OAO went on Brighton to Cardiff, it’d be 3/4 tpd and would have to ensure it wasn’t primarily abstractive, therefore it would likely miss some of the busy stations. At those frequencies, the vast majority of people are still going to be using the hourly SN/GWR services.

 

[PTR 444]

Yeah, a lot of people seem to have this romantic idea an OAO ‘forces’ a provider to improve, but in reality, the only successful ones (Grand Central & Hull) are successful because they broke into untapped markets. Yes, Hull was served 1tpd by the ECML intercity operator, but that’s hardly a ‘tapped market’ on that frequency. If an OAO went on Brighton to Cardiff, it’d be 3/4 tpd and would have to ensure it wasn’t primarily abstractive, therefore it would likely miss some of the busy stations. At those frequencies, the vast majority of people are still going to be using the hourly SN/GWR services.

What about a routing as follows? Brighton - Gatwick - Kensington Olympia - Reading - Swindon - Bristol Parkway - Cardiff. Would probably be faster than going via Southampton if paths were available.

 

[Prestige15]

This is highly unlikely to be popular, why is it calling at smaller stations and missing out the larger ones?

I don't see this being popular either with it missing out Manchester and Leeds, even if you did get paths through both. It's a non starter

This is just theory, we won't know until its tried.

Would you be happy if I added Leicester?

 

[whoosh]

Surprised the Blackpool OA service plan didn't get reinstated, or taken by another player.

Pity some TOCs don't go off-piste again, like in the early days.

Ah, the halcyon days of Burton on Trent, Matlock, Barnsley, York and Scarborough to London St Pancras; and Ipswich to Basingstoke!

With a dollop of surplus Eurostar North of London trains hired in for extra Kings Cross to York trips, and Stratigic Rail Authority funded St Pancras to Manchester Piccadillys!!

What a time to be alive!

 

[cle]

Non-London routes are quite a risk. There really isn't a second single market large enough (Birmingham is served from everywhere) - to uncover new markets. And new services often mentioned (e.g. Crewe-Preston, or Newcastle-Edinburgh stopper) would likely be with an existing person - these tend to be connecting skip-stop calls on mainlines. Preston-Glasgow would be another. The Corby is this to an extent, but without great connections. A Leicester EMU in time, perhaps.

Or find a cluster where smaller, very close-by markets might add up to something - e.g. Leicester-Nottingham-Chesterfield-Sheffield to York-Newcastle-Edinburgh (off the top of my head). Sort of what neo-Rio or an alt Leeds service might try.

If I had to argue anywhere beyond London, I would go two ways: Edinburgh. It has leisure, business, appeal from all over the nation (some of the other big places are only draws in their region) - and it has international tourist appeal too. The performance, variety and make-up of GLA vs EDI airports over the past 15 years has been quite stark.

The other way would be more seasonal, services towards Bath, Bristol, and even more seasonally, Devon and Cornwall - from more places. I actually think the Lakes are fairly well-served, other than an electrified Windermere. Maybe that would be a good home for a 350-style Crewe-Preston WCML shuttle option.

 

[anthony263]

Alliance rail proposed their Cardiff to Edinburgh service thats gone quiet

 

[The Planner]

Alliance rail proposed their Cardiff to Edinburgh service thats gone quiet

Still knocking about in the background

 

[Helvellyn]

Yeah, a lot of people seem to have this romantic idea an OAO ‘forces’ a provider to improve, but in reality, the only successful ones (Grand Central & Hull) are successful because they broke into untapped markets. Yes, Hull was served 1tpd by the ECML intercity operator, but that’s hardly a ‘tapped market’ on that frequency. If an OAO went on Brighton to Cardiff, it’d be 3/4 tpd and would have to ensure it wasn’t primarily abstractive, therefore it would likely miss some of the busy stations. At those frequencies, the vast majority of people are still going to be using the hourly SN/GWR services.

I'm surprised LNER haven't proposed withdrawing the one a day Hull service in their December timetable changes. Marginal time services to Glasgow and Stirling are going, so why keep Hull?

 

[NSE]

I'm surprised LNER haven't proposed withdrawing the one a day Hull service in their December timetable changes. Marginal time services to Glasgow and Stirling are going, so why keep Hull?

Yeah I agree. I mean, I like all these one off services for the variety, but from a purely business point of view, I’d agree 100%

 

[mangyiscute]

Or how about rather than handing out stuff to OAOs, we instead focus on running these services with trains operated under franchise agreements (or even better, renationalised) so that the profits go to further use on the railways rather than some private company's shareholders.
The way the railways should be run is that the more profitable routes subsidise the less profitable ones, and if the profitable routes are being sold off to the highest bidder that can't be a good thing.

 

[anthony263]

Still knocking about in the background

Haven't found any application on the ORRs website

 

[The Planner]

Haven't found any application on the ORRs website

Its a live proposal, Dec 25 introduction is the aspiration.

 

[anthony263]

Its a live proposal, Dec 25 introduction is the aspiration.

Probably depends if they can get hold of class 222s

 

[Clansman]

Or how about rather than handing out stuff to OAOs, we instead focus on running these services with trains operated under franchise agreements (or even better, renationalised) so that the profits go to further use on the railways rather than some private company's shareholders.
The way the railways should be run is that the more profitable routes subsidise the less profitable ones, and if the profitable routes are being sold off to the highest bidder that can't be a good thing.

Ideally this would be the case. But the UK government isn't willing to stump up the capital required to get 'would-be open access services' off the ground when it could be diverted to areas where the benefits are more certain (either social or financial).

Hence why there is a vacuum for private operators to do this - which isn't necessarily a bad thing if the contractual conditions are right (ie 'not primarily abstractive' etc).

Remember there's still a degree of risk involved where you could end up losing money if your analysis of a market doesn't reflect the reality if your operations. Look no further than Wrexham and Shropshire or Grand Central's 11th hour culling of Blackpool.

 

[30907]

I'm surprised LNER haven't proposed withdrawing the one a day Hull service in their December timetable changes. Marginal time services to Glasgow and Stirling are going, so why keep Hull?

The Hull isn't in marginal time - the train is part of the peak KGX provision. Short of a major timetable recast, it would have to run south of Doncaster (or at least Newark).
I can't see an obvious alternative use for the stock.

I notice the evening train is rather vulnerable to cancellation already!