Operation Rampdown - UK Covid-19 exit strategy

[greyman42]

Even Kier Starmer's whining at the end of last year got us the January lockdown.

As long as people remember who was doing the whining.

England being an outlier amongst peer nations across Europe would pile pressure on a man who, despite an Eton education, has difficulty defending a position.

I think England's current position in Europe should be praised and give Johnson confidence to stand his ground.

 

[Jonny]

Yes that's my worry that he caves in to demands from SAGE. Even Kier Starmer's whining at the end of last year got us the January lockdown.

As long as people remember who was doing the whining.


I think England's current position in Europe should be praised and give Johnson confidence to stand his ground.

The trouble is that people focus in on one person, and forget the others.

We can keep our fingers crossed, and there are a number of reasons why he's less likely to cave in, however if push comes to shove I think he would still bottle it. I'd agree the bar is higher now than it has been previously. England being an outlier amongst peer nations across Europe would pile pressure on a man who, despite an Eton education, has difficulty defending a position.

The trouble is that the opponents appeal to emotion among other dirty tricks. Who remembers the January 2021 advertising campaign?

 

[Eyersey468]

The trouble is that people focus in on one person, and forget the others.



The trouble is that the opponents appeal to emotion among other dirty tricks. Who remembers the January 2021 advertising campaign?

I remember all too well how disgusting it was, whoever sanctioned it should be ashamed of themselves

 

[Jonny]

I remember all too well how disgusting it was, whoever sanctioned it should be ashamed of themselves

100% emotional blackmail. As I have passed on the vaccines thus far (the survival rates even for non-vaccinated individuals from the point of infection are pretty good even with a low factor-in of asymptomatic cases) I am awaiting the next wave of bravo-sierra oops I meant beta-sigma.

 

[Skimpot flyer]

Here's the three island local authorities over the past 90 days (plus Highland as the adjacent mainland authority) from Travelling Tabby.

Na h-Eileanan Siar which has the highest proportion of Gaelic speakers of all the Scottish local authorities went off on one during the second half of October with covid prevalence peaking at 630 cases per 100k early November. An Comunn Gàidhealach's Royal National Mod took place in Inverness from the 8th to the 16th October and it's not known as the whisky olympics for nothing... So there is a clear correlation with the spike in the Western Isles and arguably a clear indication that late night alcohol fueled indoor socialising is a particularly productive environment for coronaviruses!

There's not a such a clear link to anything for Orkney, but remaining restrictions on ferry capacity were lifted before the October school holidays, so more outward and inward travel will have occurred and Orkney is simply much more accessible than Shetland with a 90min ferry crossing with Northlink (60 minutes on the Pentland Ferries route) vs a 13 hour crossing with Northlink between Aberdeen and Lerwick for Shetland.

There is also some overlap with the discussion on the Scottish Vaccine passport thread - the argument that you can't prevent cases, only delay them. Indeed, low previous covid prevalence is likely a factor in the current high island rates vs lower Glasgow rates, but by delaying those infections the peak is coming in a highly vaccinated population with better knowledge of how to treat those who do end up in hospital despite being vaccinated.

It's also worth pointing out that the total population of these 3 island authorities is low, so a relatively small number of cases can cause big swings in the prevalence per 100k, this has been particularly noticeable throughout the panedemic with the tiny mainland council of Clackmannanshire .

Surely this measure of xxx cases per 100,000 is ridiculous with such small populations on those Scottish Islands?
If me and the wife, one other couple and a single man lived on a remote island, and the singleton tests positive, we’d have a case rate of 20,000 per 100,000 !!

 

[Jonny]

Surely this measure of xxx cases per 100,000 is ridiculous with such small populations on those Scottish Islands?
If me and the wife, one other couple and a single man lived on a remote island, and the singleton tests positive, we’d have a case rate of 20,000 per 100,000 !!

Worse, a couple both catch it and it hits 40,000 - while that may count for little ^on the ground^, it would be fodder for yellow/tabloid journalism and clickbait.