Out of all rolling stock existing today, which do you think will survive the longest?

[GWVillager]

I think people are being overly optimistic with the 150s. They’ve kept running for a long time so far, but seeing the rust issues developing on some units, and the severe corrosion on similar 156s, I think it will be a swift axing in the not too distant future.

 

[PTR 444]

Not sure whether the question is asking

a) which of these current classes will be the last to be withdrawn, or
b) which of these current classes will have the longest life.

If (a), then the most recent stock will be the last to be withdrawn (other than the Hitachi 80*s which seem a bit brittle)
If (b), then the Desiros seem pretty solid. I can see them being cascaded to quieter routes when replaced on the Southwestern routes.

If all rolling stock always lived to the exact same age, there’d be little point in asking either question.

I think it’s down to interpretation really. I doubt the Sprinters will outlast all of the others on the list, although I could see them taking the title for longest lifespan if they manage to trundle on for another decade or so, even with newer rolling stock in foresight.

 

[birchesgreen]

Class 37

Probably be still a few grunting around the network when the Sun expands and envelops the Earth.

 

[Trainguy34]

Class 37

Probably be still a few grunting around the network when the Sun expands and envelops the Earth.

I wouldn't go that far but they'd be on a heritage railway definitely.

 

[The exile]

I think people are being overly optimistic with the 150s. They’ve kept running for a long time so far, but seeing the rust issues developing on some units, and the severe corrosion on similar 156s, I think it will be a swift axing in the not too distant future.

As others have pointed out, it depends whether you mean “have the longest lifespan” or “will be withdrawn at the furthest date in the future”. Sprinters are pretty clearly not going to be the answer in the second case, but could be in the first.

 

[brad465]

Voted for 185s. They may be a less-than-ideal fit for anywhere other than the routes they were specified for, but they are built like (as someone suggested about Desiros generally) the proverbial brick outhouse.

If one encountered the Newport shredder, I'm not sure which would win!

Maybe 185s will become the new Newport shredder, which by default means they win as they literally eat up all the competition.

 

[Royston Vasey]

I am sure it will be a locomotive. How many 60s and 70s multiple units are operational right now (only the HSTs and a few Merseyrail PEPs, neither of which for much longer) and how many 60s and 70s locomotives? Dozens of 37, 47, 56, 57, 69 and some 43s*. Even a few 20s!


*Yes folks... it's Schrödinger's power car... both a unit and loco

 

[Mikey C]

The correct answer for the longest lived stock, if you include it's full life from when it was first built for the Underground in the late 70s, will surely be the IoW Class 484s, seeing that they were already 40 years old when introduced

 

[Krokodil]

I am sure it will be a locomotive. How many 60s and 70s multiple units are operational right now (only the HSTs and a few Merseyrail PEPs, neither of which for much longer) and how many 60s and 70s locomotives? Dozens of 37, 47, 56, 57, 69 and some 43s*. Even a few 20s!


*Yes folks... it's Schrödinger's power car... both a unit and loco

If we're counting locos then a gronk will surely have the longest lifespan.

 

[cjmillsnun]

Agreed, unless the tradition of the WCML getting new units for stopper services continues, I could see the 350s lasting over 40 years, they still feel like relatively modern trains, 18 years later - and they've won golden spanners, they're incredibly reliable, solid units. Sadly, if they were to go off-lease, I don't know if they'd have anywhere to go to.

The 450/444 certainly will.

 

[michael74]

I think people are being overly optimistic with the 150s. They’ve kept running for a long time so far, but seeing the rust issues developing on some units, and the severe corrosion on similar 156s, I think it will be a swift axing in the not too distant future.

GWR are putting them through C6 exam which includes rust and corrosion, the axe will have to wait.....

 

[Krokodil]

GWR's 150s have already had quite a lot of repairs done to deal with years of Dawlish seawater trapping itself behind multiple layers of vinyl.

 

[michael74]

GWR's 150s have already had quite a lot of repairs done to deal with years of Dawlish seawater trapping itself behind multiple layers of vinyl.

Indeed, one knocking around with a hole under the drivers window you could fall into, but it's nothing that can't be cut out.... GWR have yet to even put out a tender for Operation Churchward, 150s will be here for some time to come.

 

[davart]

I voted CAF civity DMUs not because of what they're actually like a units, but because the 195s specifically are operating for northern, who seem to have a history of getting no funding to replace rolling stock. I can totally forsee the same happening in 40 years

That's essentially what I thought too. Perhaps they'll end up cascaded to the Penistone line, which is currently served almost exclusively by class 150s.

 

[eldomtom2]

Definitely not any DMUs. If anything slips past the 2050 decarbonisation date it'll be diesel freight locos, not the far easier to battery-ify multiple units.

 

[DaveTM]

I suspect it will be like with signalling infrastructure where semaphores are outliving at least two generations of what was supposed to replace them. If it can be repaired by someone with little more than a blacksmith's skills, it will last forever, being repaired like Trigger's broom. If it relies on electronic parts that are going out of production within a decade, it will be replaced when it wears out.

That being the case, it is going to be a fight between class 08/09 and class 37...

 

[Bevan Price]

I think that Class 66 may have to be rebuilt with less-polluting engines if it is to have a long term future. 2-stroke diesel engines are not exactly "pollution-free". I also think that a new type of light axle load diesel (or hybrid) loco may be needed to replace Class 37, as a few locos will always be needed for infrastructure trains, etc., on lines where Class 66s, etc., are too heavy.

 

[61653 HTAFC]

That's essentially what I thought too. Perhaps they'll end up cascaded to the Penistone line, which is currently served almost exclusively by class 150s.

They've already worked the Penistone line, there was a regular Sunday turn for them in a previous timetable period. Not sure if that's still the case, presumably not.

Though I agree with the crux of your post and the one you were replying to- the 195s (and their gangwayed counterparts) will likely be the last non-battery or non-electric units in use in the more rural parts of the country.

 

[Bigvernicus]

Depends on the technology, many new vehicles are so complex, that the electronic systems will become life expired and need replacing as not many electronic sytems will last 40 years without it. hence more modern stock scrapped before older stock, unless electronic systems are replaced.

 

[McRhu]

The 9Fs and Black Fives in Box Tunnel must surely be candidates. By definition they'll be rolling out when everything else is hors de combat.

 

[Intercity110]

The 9Fs and Black Fives in Box Tunnel must surely be candidates. By definition they'll be rolling out when everything else is hors de combat.

I don’t get it. Is this something to do with the cold war?

 

[driverd]

Has everyone just missed the locomotive option? The Class 37s seem to be indestructible now, so I reckon the 66s will still be around once all of the other options are gone.

Seconded. The oldest Class 37s are now pushing 65 years old, which has to make them a fair contender for oldest stock on the network already.

No passenger unit has ever got close to that.

I'd say it's absolutely fair to assume the 66s will soldier on far longer than anything else in the poll.

 

[eldomtom2]

I'd say it's absolutely fair to assume the 66s will soldier on far longer than anything else in the poll.

That depends on how willing people in the future are to keep dirty diesels around...

 

[m79900]

I voted Desiro City, because they’re fairly new and built by Siemens.

 

[61653 HTAFC]

No passenger unit has ever got close to that.

Apart from the IoW 483s of course!

 

[m79900]

Apart from the IoW 483s of course!

And the Chiltern 121s weren’t far off.

 

[james_the_xv]

Pendolino, dependent on how journey-time focused the classic wcml lines will be post HS2. DFT won't spec any new tilting stock for the foreseeable so they'll be kept going by whichever operator has the WCML. IETs won't make 390 SRTs and WCML journey times will be substantially longer as a result. Tilt-operated services may be the new 'flagship' on the classic lines so wouldn't surprise me if they go for a huge refurb at some point in the next 15 years to keep them going.

 

[McRhu]

I don’t get it. Is this something to do with the cold war?

Strategic Reserve....

 

[Mat17]

I really like the 185s but I think they're sadly going to be one of those fleets that although they are superb, they will struggle to find a home when taken off of TPE.

I vote for the 170s, they're fantastic units and they're spread quite widely across the network. I think they'll find a home anywhere.

158s are a good shout too.

I suspect 150s will keep going longer than expected as they are the last of the shorter length trains.