Parliamentary debate today: reopening the railway between Aberystwyth and Carmarthen

[LNW-GW Joint]

Given that the largest town in North Wales is Wrexham, which would benefit not one jot from a West Coast North-South rail link, I fear there's a certain type of narrow-minded bigot within Plaid Cymru# who would happily ask for a new railway from Chirk to Abergavenny for the sole purpose of not having to set wheel in England.

Cue plan to reopen Gobowen-Merthyr via Welshpool, the Cambrian and Brecon...

I think people forget how primitive the old rural alignments were, in terms of curvature and open crossings.
They were generally 40mph with little scope for faster running.
Partly this was because of the need to build at the lowest cost through the challenging landscape.
Any half-modern alignment would have to be re-engineered to be time-competitive with the generally shorter road links.

 

[Tobbes]

I think people forget how primitive the old rural alignments were, in terms of curvature and open crossings.
They were generally 40mph with little scope for faster running.
Partly this was because of the need to build at the lowest cost through the challenging landscape.
Any half-modern alignment would have to be re-engineered to be time-competitive with the generally shorter road links.

When the analysis was done of Aber-Carmarthen, what were the indicative speeds? I thought it was faster than 40 mph.

 

[tomos dafis]

The important economic rail link between north and south Wales is the Marches route, now managed and operated entirely from within Wales despite crossing the border 4 times.
It also provides services across the English Marches and to the major economic areas of Bristol, Liverpool and Manchester which a coastal route could not do.
It may be indirect for folk in Bangor and the coast, but the journey time from Bangor (on WG's special express) is less than 4 hours which won't be improved via a coastal route.
It also connects more people in Wales (east-west as well as north-south) than any other possible route.
If there is a local business case for reopening sections along the coast then fine, but it's delusional to think that they could form a meaningfully economic through route.

I suspect this campaign is really a bid to pressure the Welsh Government to spend a large chunk of the HS2 "Barnett consequentials" in west Wales.
The UK Treasury/DfT will not pay much attention to such devolved matters, and other parts of Wales will have something to say about WG transport priorities.

You have clearly missed the crucial point that it has been decided by Westminster that Wales will get ZERO PERCENT of any Barnett consequential funding from HS2 spending whilst both Scotland and Northern Ireland get 100% Barnett consequentials which can be used to improve transport there. It is not about where in Wales money is spent but that Wales gets NOTHING from the HS2 pot to improve transport while HS2 gets many tens of billions and NI and Scotnd get a percentage of this.

 

[tomos dafis]

My wife comes from along the line, and we're heading there this weekend, but a railway would do little what a high quality limited stop bus service couldn't do a great deal cheaper, except that if the railway is rebuilt the bus will still be needed as on the southern half the line is usually well away from the main road and the towns and villages along it. There's better cases for reopening elsewhere in Wales, nevermind the rest of Britain.

I take the point that the proposal to use this re-opening as part of a major north- south route within Wales is not really feasible and is arguably more of a political rather than economic or commercial proposition, though I recognise there are those who would neither deny nor apologise for that and I understand their viewpoint.
Within the uk as a whole there is a need to rebalance infrastructure investment and resultant economic growth among its various parts.

 

[Tobbes]

I take the point that the proposal to use this re-opening as part of a major north- south route within Wales is not really feasible and is arguably more of a political rather than economic or commercial proposition, though I recognise there are those who would neither deny nor apologise for that and I understand their viewpoint.
Within the uk as a whole there is a need to rebalance infrastructure investment and resultant economic growth among its various parts.

I am all for the improvement in public transport and (obviously) esp in favour of rail reopenings. Indeed, I'm pretty relaxed about the fact that most schemes will never make a contribution to their capital costs, but I do expect them to cover their direct operating costs.

But to argue that "everywhere should win a prize" is only getting you so far; the marginal £1 spent on rail in a heavily populated corridor is almost always going to generate a better return than a rural line between two smallish towns via some very small places plus Lampeter (whuch at least has student demand).

If the basis is solely political, then (like Borders, which was a thing my Libdems insisted on) then the WG can pay for it.

 

[tomos dafis]

I am all for the improvement in public transport and (obviously) esp in favour of rail reopenings. Indeed, I'm pretty relaxed about the fact that most schemes will never make a contribution to their capital costs, but I do expect them to cover their direct operating costs.

But to argue that "everywhere should win a prize" is only getting you so far; the marginal £1 spent on rail in a heavily populated corridor is almost always going to generate a better return than a rural line between two smallish towns via some very small places plus Lampeter (whuch at least has student demand).

If the basis is solely political, then (like Borders, which was a thing my Libdems insisted on) then the WG can pay for it.

Sorry, from where did the direct quote "everyone should win a prize" come? If it is a metaphor for spreading investment more widely and fairly across the WHOLE UK (including the Regions of England) to relieve the pressure on the Southeast and stimulate prosperity for all then it is neither apt nor helpful.
In terms of covering operating costs, you would have to close many many existing lines which currently rely upon subsidies to continue.
I said that I understand the political viewpoint, I did not say I supported it - there has been too much money lost by WG on unsuccessful ventures with poor business cases but potential political benefits and this has to stop.

 

[tomos dafis]

I'm aware of that. My point is why is the UK Parliament even giving time over to discuss it? Transport has been devolved, a budget has been agreed. Work within it and if you want extra cut back on other things. Don't demand devolution and then expect the rest of the UK to pay for extras.

Trust you are now rather better informed having read the highly relevant post from LN -GW JOINT (#10). There is a lot of misunderstanding around the fact that many powers are not fully devolved to WG but shared with ministers at Westminster e.g. for the Wales and borders franchise WG procure and manage it but DfT specify conditions for operation of TFW services when they enter England or if they operate entirely within England e.g Crewe to Chester. If you pick through the details it is complex and messy.

 

[Tobbes]

Sorry, from where did the direct quote "everyone should win a prize" come? If it is a metaphor for spreading investment more widely and fairly across the WHOLE UK (including the Regions of England) to relieve the pressure on the Southeast and stimulate prosperity for all then it is neither apt nor helpful.

I'm sorry if you don't like it as a metaphor, but it is a reality. If you were to rank transport infrastructure investment proposals by BCR (including wider societal benefits to capture regeneration benefits) and fund them based on their BCR ranking, what do you think would happen? It would be even more skewed if you made allowance for regions to make a local contribution (see: Crossrail). The simple fact is that we don't do this because we do spread investment about, meaning that some higher BCR proposals must by defintion must not happen if lower BCR projects happen to spread investment about.

This is made worse, not better, by Barnett. Not only is whether a project counts for Barnett consequentials "an art rather than a science", what was a temporary bodge in the late 1970s is inherently unfair to Wales and the English regions; what is required is a regional needs based funding formula with more devolution in how the money is spent. (In this, I support the idea of an English Parliament, and all four national Parliaments having the powers that Holyrood has now, btw.)

In terms of covering operating costs, you would have to close many many existing lines which currently rely upon subsidies to continue. I said that I understand the political viewpoint, I did not say I supported it - there has been too much money lost by WG on unsuccessful ventures with poor business cases but potential political benefits and this has to stop.

My bad, I should have been more precise: I'd like to see reinstated lines cover their DOCs with any subsidy coming from the regional government, given that we're going to write off a big slug of capital to build a new line in the first place. In this, things are rather different to the subsidy of an existing line - how many years subsidy for the Heart of Wales would £700m cover? I appreciate that this raises the bar for new/reinstated lines over the existing network, but this reflects the capital costs.

Bottom line: would I rebuild Carmathen-Aber and Afon Wen - Bangor? Not to create a through route per se, no. But I'd look carefully at Afon Wen - Bangor, and then if you were minded to do the Carmathen-Aber rebuild, I'd want to provide something substantially better than the bus route, and this could include the much longer tunnel to avoid the old route that Gwili currently operate: after all, if you're going spend this sort of money, let's get the best possible route out of it.

 

[tomos dafis]

Totally agree with you about Barnett and about the need for four national parliaments icluding one for England, all with equal powers. Also take the point about ongoing subsidy for established lines versus new - build.
Re-instated lines such as Aberdare, Maesteg-Bridgend, Newport - Ebbw Vale and Vale of Glamorgan have been viable because lines and infrastructure were left in place for freight long after passenger service ceased and they were shorter than Aber-Carmarthen, where some of the infrastructure hss been acquired / reinstated by preserved railways like thd Gwili, Tefi valley and Vale of Rheidol (into Aber station). Providing an attractive rail alternative to bus travel on this route would, as you say, prove costly with uncertain future benefits and returns.

 

[mmh]

Could somebody please explain why investment creating new links with the rationale of improving connectivity and encouraging investment is a perfectly wonderful idea in the south east of England, but elsewhere in Britain it's an awful idea because "nobody goes between those places"?

 

[Bald Rick]

Could somebody please explain why investment creating new links with the rationale of improving connectivity and encouraging investment is a perfectly wonderful idea in the south east of England, but elsewhere in Britain it's an awful idea because "nobody goes between those places"?

It’s not because “nobody goes between those places”, it’s becaise “nobody lives between those places” and “there is no prospect of significant traffic between those places”.

 

[Llanigraham]

Could somebody please explain why investment creating new links with the rationale of improving connectivity and encouraging investment is a perfectly wonderful idea in the south east of England, but elsewhere in Britain it's an awful idea because "nobody goes between those places"?

Quite simply because the South East of England has a large population in a small area, whereas in the likes of the Aberystwyth Carmarthen corridor there is a very small population in a very large area, plus the line in question doesn't pass through any of the (small) towns that might generate traffic.

 

[adrock1976]

Also, the only large settlement between Aberystwyth and Carmarthen is Lampeter, roughly halfway between the two.

I am not sure how feasible or viable it would be to reconnect Lampeter to the railway network, which instead of reinstating the entire route, to either connect Lampeter from the Aberystwyth end or Carmarthen end.

I feel that reconnecting Lampeter from the Aberystwyth end would pose engineering challenges in that it would be most likely for the line to have the ETCS signalling, so as to match the Shrewsbury/Pwllheli route. Should if Lampeter ever gets reconnected to the railway network, I would favour the reinstatement from the Carmarthen side, with integrated bus links onwards to Aberystwyth.

Note that I have not looked at the original alignment to see where parts of it are obstructed, and that I am simply giving my thoughts regarding the original suggestion of reinstating the entire route.

 

[driver_m]

Can't the mods make this into a wider North - South Wales Rail Link if that's what is being talked about in the piece in the newspaper?

As someone who has had to use the road via Caernarfon on a regular basis and also tried to access West Wales a few times from that end, I would love a line like this to reopen, and given the money being spent now on tourism in the Lleyn Peninsula. If the Welsh want to better connect their country together, then who are we as English people to criticise for wanting to do that? Economically it may be a basket case, but there is a social and a growth aspect to wanting to do this too. And given that the UK govt currently spends money to supposedly better the whole UK and not just England, can my fellow countryman just drop the little englander pettiness and the "let the Welsh pay for it" rubbish just for once? These bus links that people keep talking about are unrealistic. Ain't no bus that'll get you from Bangor to say, Pwllheli in one go easily from the station. (And if there is, it ain't very well publicised because I've never seen it anywhere on that road)

Aberystwyth itself is one hell of a slog to get to from NW England considering the distance, so anything that helps our countries link themselves better has to take the Home Counties blinkers off and consider that some parts really do need infrastructure improvements. And if anyone wants to debate that point from down south, just look at Manchester-Sheffield, and tell me that Westminster deserves to dictate what gets spent.

 

[Llanigraham]

Also, the only large settlement between Aberystwyth and Carmarthen is Lampeter, roughly halfway between the two.

I am not sure how feasible or viable it would be to reconnect Lampeter to the railway network, which instead of reinstating the entire route, to either connect Lampeter from the Aberystwyth end or Carmarthen end.

I feel that reconnecting Lampeter from the Aberystwyth end would pose engineering challenges in that it would be most likely for the line to have the ETCS signalling, so as to match the Shrewsbury/Pwllheli route. Should if Lampeter ever gets reconnected to the railway network, I would favour the reinstatement from the Carmarthen side, with integrated bus links onwards to Aberystwyth.

Note that I have not looked at the original alignment to see where parts of it are obstructed, and that I am simply giving my thoughts regarding the original suggestion of reinstating the entire route.

The previous thread about this "proposal" has a link to the full study that has been written.
I suggest that it might be worth a few people actually reading that report, especially those who do not know the area.

 

[Llanigraham]

Can't the mods make this into a wider North - South Wales Rail Link if that's what is being talked about in the piece in the newspaper?

As someone who has had to use the road via Caernarfon on a regular basis and also tried to access West Wales a few times from that end, I would love a line like this to reopen, and given the money being spent now on tourism in the Lleyn Peninsula. If the Welsh want to better connect their country together, then who are we as English people to criticise for wanting to do that? Economically it may be a basket case, but there is a social and a growth aspect to wanting to do this too. And given that the UK govt currently spends money to supposedly better the whole UK and not just England, can my fellow countryman just drop the little englander pettiness and the "let the Welsh pay for it" rubbish just for once? These bus links that people keep talking about are unrealistic. Ain't no bus that'll get you from Bangor to say, Pwllheli in one go easily from the station. (And if there is, it ain't very well publicised because I've never seen it anywhere on that road)

Aberystwyth itself is one hell of a slog to get to from NW England considering the distance, so anything that helps our countries link themselves better has to take the Home Counties blinkers off and consider that some parts really do need infrastructure improvements. And if anyone wants to debate that point from down south, just look at Manchester-Sheffield, and tell me that Westminster deserves to dictate what gets spent.

But again you are comparing parts of rural Wales, where the largest population is sheep, to large urban centres of population.
We are not comparable!

 

[driver_m]

But again you are comparing parts of rural Wales, where the largest population is sheep, to large urban centres of population.
We are not comparable!

Maybe not, but it doesn't mean it's going to stay that way forever, Nice to see ambition, I wish our politicians would try it sometime in the North West.

 

[Llanigraham]

Maybe not, but it doesn't mean it's going to stay that way forever, Nice to see ambition, I wish our politicians would try it sometime in the North West.

Sorry, but a large increase in the human population in the area along the Aberystwyth Carmarthen corridor, enough to economically feed a reopened passenger line is frankly completely unlikely! It crosses an upland sheep farming area, a very large bog, and some narrow valleys. Other than Lampeter there are no centres of population anywhere near the line. Cardigan and Newcastle Emlyn were one branch, Aberaeron another, and New Quay didn't get one! Even if there was a sudden increase in the size of Coleg Lampeter it wouldn't justify the rebuilding.

I suggest you read the feasibility study I mentioned above.
Link: https://beta.gov.wales/sites/defaul...then-rail-reinstatement-feasibility-study.pdf

Even as a member of Plaid Cymru I cannot support this reopening, and myself and other railwaymen have spoken to senior members of the Party about this.

 

[edwin_m]

But again you are comparing parts of rural Wales, where the largest population is sheep, to large urban centres of population.
We are not comparable!

Maybe not, but it doesn't mean it's going to stay that way forever, Nice to see ambition, I wish our politicians would try it sometime in the North West.

What would the locals (to say nothing of the sheep) think to several thousand houses being built in the area?

 

[mmh]

Quite simply because the South East of England has a large population in a small area, whereas in the likes of the Aberystwyth Carmarthen corridor there is a very small population in a very large area, plus the line in question doesn't pass through any of the (small) towns that might generate traffic.

Where that argument falls down is there are countless places in the south of England with small populations, but with people who commute long distances to London and nobody would dream of saying they're too small justify a railway.

Much of the south east would also be sparsely populated if it didn't have railways.

Why the difference?

 

[yorkie]

Where that argument falls down is there are countless places in the south of England with small populations, but with people who commute long distances to London and nobody would dream of saying they're too small justify a railway.

Much of the south east would also be sparsely populated if it didn't have railways.

Why the difference?

What railway line are you talking about reopening? Feel free to create a thread to discuss it, then create a link from here.

 

[mmh]

What would the locals (to say nothing of the sheep) think to several thousand houses being built in the area?

I don't think anyone's suggesting a new city will appear. But the locals would love having more of a chance of getting a job rather than having to move away.

That seems acceptable elsewhere, but not in Wales for some reason.

 

[Bald Rick]

Much of the south east would also be sparsely populated if it didn't have railways.

Why the difference?

The difference is that the railways already exist - built relatively cheaply in the form of cheap labour through the blood and sweat of thousands of blokes with shovels around 150 years ago and more. Labour isn’t cheap today, as anyone who has had recent work done on their house will testify.

The other difference is that these ‘small’ communities in the south east - most of which are far larger than any settlement between Aber and Carmarthen other than Lampeter - are all in commuting distance of London. That is the London that is the centre of the world financial markets, which drives the U.K. economy (much as though many people would like to pretend it doesn’t).

To suggest that building a new line in rural west wales would turn it into an economic powerhouse is right up there with the flat earthers and anti-vaxxers.

 

[6Gman]

It's hard to think of any potential reinstatement/new build in the South East of England remotely comparable to Carmarthen - Aberystwyth.

Something like the Kent & East Sussex perhaps?

 

[Tobbes]

It's hard to think of any potential reinstatement/new build in the South East of England remotely comparable to Carmarthen - Aberystwyth.

Something like the Kent & East Sussex perhaps?

If you were to complete the Mid-Suffolk all the way to Halesworth, then you'd be playing in the right league. Doubt it would cost £775m, though.....

 

[Bald Rick]

Doubt it would cost £775m, though.....

Neither would Carmarthen to Aber! (It would be more than that, considerably).

 

[Spartacus]

Transpose it away from the SE and reinstating the mere 7.5 miles of Low Moor to Thornhill Jn would put two towns bigger than either Carmarthen or Aberystwyth back on the railway map, both of which have severe traffic issues, none of which can be solved by the building of new roads due to a combination of geography and development. The trackbed all exists too, being a cycleway just like some of the Carmarthen -Aberystwyth line. Sounds a lot better than miles of line through mostly sheep and cattle country (the last stub remained open for dairy traffic after all) costing £775m+.

 

[Tobbes]

Neither would Carmarthen to Aber! (It would be more than that, considerably).

I thought that £775m was the Mott McDonald figure (2017 numbers?)

 

[tbtc]

The nationalist politician is successfully conflating three very different things here.

There's certainly an argument that different parts of the UK are under/over-represented by Barnett Formula decisions, something that becomes a lot harder to assess when deciding which things are "UK" projects (and therefore Barnett doesn't come into it). Problem is, this is a Grass Is Always Greener kind of debate, it's easy to see the things that they get in other regions/areas and be envious without appreciating that these things often come at the price of other things - e.g. prescription charges - I don't think we'll ever assuage people's concerns about this - even if you rip up the current UK and create a fully federal utopian structure you'll get nationalists keen to point out some discrepancy or other. Many other threads see the complaint that "if this small town were in Scotland/Wales then it'd have had it's railway reinstated ages ago because these Celtic countries are much more progressive", so it's interesting to see the argument here along the lines of "if Lampeter were in England then it'd have had it's railway reinstated ages ago because England would find the money". Grass is always greener

Secondly, there's the pure politics of the fact that a service from Holyhead to Cardiff has to go through England... does this really bother people? I have colleagues who commute from Halfway into Sheffield City Centre without worrying that their Supertram left Yorkshire and ran through The Midlands for part of it's journey, without worrying about it. Maybe that is a big issue if you're Welsh, but I find it hard to get particularly upset about.

Then lastly, even if you decide that Wales can have a billion pounds (because it's easy to misunderstand the DUP situation and the fact that Northern Ireland may have some fairly significant reasons for lack of public investment over the past generation, if you know nothing about the place)... is Carmarthen to Aberystwyth really the best place for it to be spent? Okay, it's seven hours between them at the moment but then few people would be daft enough to try such a journey by train - it's a long way from Rhymney to Merthyr Tydfil by train (compared to as the crow flies) and I don't see anyone insisting that we build a direct link there. What would be the demand? Normally, new lines work because you have a big city at one end (Edinburgh, Cardiff) and an economically deprived town at the other end (Galashiels, Ebbw Vale), so it's obvious what the service is targeting - people commenting into the big city, people unable to get jobs in the town, people unable to afford houses in the city and therefore looking at moving to somewhere cheaper. Simple.

But (ignoring the nice shape it makes with a crayon on your map), what's the main demand for a line in rural Wales? Are there large numbers of people in Carmarthen unable to find jobs in Swansea who are eager to commute to the booming metropolis of Aberystwyth? Or do people really think that there will be significant numbers of people in Aberystwyth willing to take the train for over two hours/ over a hundred miles to commute in Cardiff? I can see it being handy half a dozen weekends a year when the Students are arriving/leaving but what about the rest of the year?

Essentially, I can see the logic in the first point, I can see why you could look at HS2 and decide that "if there's money for that then there should be money spent in my back yard", I get that. It's a powerful starting point for an argument. Throw in some envious reference to the DUP and it's easy to believe that Wales is hard done by as far as infrastructure goes.

I'm unmoved by the "lack of internal north-south line", but I can see why it might play well to a certain demographic.

But, even if you buy the first two arguments, it's thin gruel to accept the idea of Carmarthen - Aberystwyth being what to spend a big pot of money on. I can see the attraction of hoovering up some 75mph DMUs and throwing them at a proper clock face service from Swansea to Milford Haven/ Pembroke - there's certainly an argument that these fringes lack a good enough service. But there are surely a lot of other better projects to spend Welsh money on - removing single track bottlenecks, trying to give Cwmbran a proper service into Newport/Cardiff (something equivalent to a Valley Lines frequency, instead of being dependent upon unreliable long distance services), more double track north of Wrexham, extending the wires west of Cardiff, using the TramTrain functionalities to expand Valley Lines services beyond their current termini. It's not like there's a shortage of things that the money could be spent on - I guess that it's more a case of politicians knowing that suggesting an Aberystwyth - Carmarthen line every few months plays well with the kind of nostalgists who like the idea of investing in rural areas, with a handy dose of nationalism (even if heavy rail is over the top for that kind of route, where the largest unserved town has fewer than three thousand people!).

Great politics, terrible business case. Spend the money on something better.

 

[Llanigraham]

What would the locals (to say nothing of the sheep) think to several thousand houses being built in the area?

Can I suggest you have a good look at a map of this area and then perhaps you would like to tell me why such a thing could happen?