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Passenger numbers heading into spring ‘24

Deafdoggie

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Joined
29 Sep 2016
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3,092
Which lines and what times?
Shepherds Bush to Euston (via Willesden) at 17.30 & 18.30 both trains at both times were very empty with lots of spare seats. I was assured I was travelling in the peak direction as I was hoping I'd be going against the flow!
 
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Adrian1980uk

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Joined
24 May 2016
Messages
494
The trains may offer more seats but there’s 1 fewer peak service 06:48 ex NOR and 18:10 back and the 06:28 is 11 x 755 (with only 550 seats) so the overall number of peak seats provided on Norwich services now is pretty much similar to that of May 2019. That said the changes to the peak GEML service from June add in more outer suburban services with 17 trains in the high evening peak hour (compared to 14 at the moment). Though again back in May 2019 it was 20.
I wonder if the missing 6 suburban services are suppressing demand or the the demand isn't there. To a certain extent the same would go for 06:48, I'm lucky I can get into work at 9:15 or 9:30 but getting into Liverpool Street dead on 9 won't work for a lot of people and 6:28 is an ungodly hour to most commuters.
 

dk1

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2 Oct 2009
Messages
15,983
Location
East Anglia
The trains may offer more seats but there’s 1 fewer peak service 06:48 ex NOR and 18:10 back and the 06:28 is 11 x 755 (with only 550 seats) so the overall number of peak seats provided on Norwich services now is pretty much similar to that of May 2019. That said the changes to the peak GEML service from June add in more outer suburban services with 17 trains in the high evening peak hour (compared to 14 at the moment). Though again back in May 2019 it was 20.
The 06:28 became a 745 last December. Only triple traction morning up departure is the 07:26.
 

Xavi

Member
Joined
17 Apr 2012
Messages
648
Business commuters, pre-pandemic, typically bought season tickets, at a premium
Season tickets are not premium priced, they offer some of the best value travel on the network. Lost volume means lost revenue though.
 

43066

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Joined
24 Nov 2019
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9,429
Location
London
Season tickets are not premium priced, they offer some of the best value travel on the network. Lost volume means lost revenue though.

They’re sold at a discount to the buyer, but of course guarantee upfront revenue for the railway.
 

The exile

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Joined
31 Mar 2010
Messages
2,725
Location
Somerset
Season tickets are not premium priced, they offer some of the best value travel on the network. Lost volume means lost revenue though.
What they do of course, is give the railway guaranteed income regardless of when or if the holder actually travels (other than “void days”).
Beaten to it!
 

nw1

Established Member
Joined
9 Aug 2013
Messages
7,103
The elephant in the room is the spare capacity on Fridays, and to a lesser extent on Mondays, and the need to get the railway being used all week, not just on Tuesday to Thursday. There is also the issue of there being higher use on less lucrative short journeys than more lucrative longer journeys. Switching more long distance capacity to short distance journeys doesn't necessarily bring in the same levels of income.

Perhaps one idea could be to bring back some of the peak additionals (e.g. the 1739 and 1748 mainline departures out of Waterloo) and run them Tues-Thurs or possibly Mon-Thurs only. Then on Friday, redeploy the stock to provide extra capacity for "weekend away" travel (e.g. more capacity towards Dorset in the case of the South Western).

Looking at Southeastern's CWN they do seem to have variable stock formations depending on day of week, with some peak trains longer Tues-Thurs than Mon or Fri. Generally, Southeastern seem to be one of the more "progressive" TOCs at the moment with a range of June improvements coming suggesting they are responding to the uptick in numbers, including some completely new peak additionals (half hourly frequency Charing Cross to Maidstone East in the peak, for example).

A lot depends on time of travel, does seem to be lot more later starts. Which has spread it.

If go back 10 or 20 years peak was busy about 07:30 - 09:15 as most were expected to start by 9am, with just few on later times. These days will rarely find physical office meetings booked for 9am or earlier.

The trains were often very quiet from 09:15 until off peak tickets started, so used to be empty trains at certain times.

Further back still I get the impression there were more post-9am starts and the morning rush hour was later. For example the peak services from Haslemere to Waterloo in the 1982-1985 period were every 10 mins from 0715 to 0825, arrival times in Waterloo approx. 0805 to 0925. The "prime" commuter service appeared to be the 0756, due around 0850, and there was just one non-overtaken service before 0715, the 0627. (There was also the 0705 overtaken stopping service).

This would suggest later starts in the 80s , does this sound correct?

Contrast that to the 2019 timetable which shows as many as 6 non-overtaken services from Haslemere to Waterloo before 0700 and three (!) between 0700 and 0715, but less departures after 0740 than in the 80s: just two between 0740 and 0830 compared to five in the 80s. Furthermore, all 5 of these services in 1982 (to pick one year where I have a CWN) were 10- or 12-car. Seems to indicate that the morning peak shifted earlier between the mid-80s and 2019.
 
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Xavi

Member
Joined
17 Apr 2012
Messages
648
They’re sold at a discount to the buyer, but of course guarantee upfront revenue for the railway.
Revenue that was necessary to pay for additional infrastructure and rolling stock to provide the peak service. Much of that cost is embedded in the railway we have today e.g., too many 720s in Anglia, and Waterloo rebuilt in 2018, hence the increased 'subsidy'.
 

hwl

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Joined
5 Feb 2012
Messages
7,398
Perhaps one idea could be to bring back some of the peak additionals (e.g. the 1739 and 1748 mainline departures out of Waterloo) and run them Tues-Thurs or possibly Mon-Thurs only. Then on Friday, redeploy the stock to provide extra capacity for "weekend away" travel (e.g. more capacity towards Dorset in the case of the South Western).

Looking at Southeastern's CWN they do seem to have variable stock formations depending on day of week, with some peak trains longer Tues-Thurs than Mon or Fri. Generally, Southeastern seem to be one of the more "progressive" TOCs at the moment with a range of June improvements coming suggesting they are responding to the uptick in numbers, including some completely new peak additionals (half hourly frequency Charing Cross to Maidstone East in the peak, for example).



Further back still I get the impression there were more post-9am starts and the morning rush hour was later. For example the peak services from Haslemere to Waterloo in the 1982-1985 period were every 10 mins from 0715 to 0825, arrival times in Waterloo approx. 0805 to 0925. The "prime" commuter service appeared to be the 0756, due around 0850, and there was just one non-overtaken service before 0715, the 0627. (There was also the 0705 overtaken stopping service).

This would suggest later starts in the 80s , does this sound correct?

Contrast that to the 2019 timetable which shows as many as 6 non-overtaken services from Haslemere to Waterloo before 0700 and three (!) between 0700 and 0715, but less departures after 0740 than in the 80s: just two between 0740 and 0830 compared to five in the 80s. Furthermore, all 5 of these services in 1982 (to pick one year where I have a CWN) were 10- or 12-car. Seems to indicate that the morning peak shifted earlier between the mid-80s and 2019.
Especially in some parts of the financial services industry
 

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