There's no way I'm singing this because I mostly do return journeys, and we all know that there's
no way the TOCs are going to accept a drop in revenue due to making singles cheaper (especially not given other events at the moment!).
So you can forget seeing all returns staying the same and singles at half that.
If forced to simply make singles half the price of returns but no cap on how high unregulated returns can be, you'd see the (unregulated) CDR fares heavily increased in price.
It would make no difference to the long distance peak journeys, where SOSs are already half the price of SORs.
In the case of SVRs where the fare is protected they would just increase restrictions on singles to make them less attractive.
Capping fares has been proven to be a failure because the TOCs just introduce more and more restrictions on them, eventually undermining the whole principle. I have no doubt that forcing them to make singles half the price of returns would result in similarly underhand tactics by TOCs.
You can't just cut TOCs revenue and expect them to put up with it, they won't!
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They'll find a way of doing it if they choose this option; similar to the recent simplification. I'm a bit cynical, but I just have a feeling that, if they do it, they'll come up with a more restricted "Super-Duper Off-Peak Return" or something.
They'll certainly do something.
Take York-London, arriving after 1020 would be fine for most business meetings, and leaving London at around 1700 or 1800 (so evening peak).
The Off Peak Return (SVR) fare is £129.90 valid for this journey.
If forced to make singles half that fare, the fare for a single would be reduced to £64.95 - cheaper than the Super Off Peak single today, and the current cost of a single leaving King's Cross in the evenign peak is £111.50. NXEC won't accept this drop in income so what they would do is make the Off Peak Single fare (which currently does not exist) costing £64.95 very unattractive by making it very heavily restrictive. The Super Off Peak Return (SSR) is £84.00 and the SSS is £83, so they'd have to make the SSS as low as £42! They would make this ticket incredibly restrictive (like valid at, say, 11pm-1pm or after 9pm only or something daft). That's the only way they could protect their revenue if they are forced to have cheap fares, they make them restrictive. Then the vast majority of people who want to travel one way are forced to pay the Anytime Single (SOS) fare which is £111.50 so are no better off!
However even the above will not happen! And here's why....
Over time they abolished the original Super Off Peak fare (then called a Super Saver), and the Saver became the restrictive Super Off Peak which has it's price capped, but the new Saver does not have it's price cap. As the Off Peak return is not a protected fare they would, if forced to make singles half the price of returns, simply increase the price of the return ticket (say to £166 - this is still a lot cheaper than the £223 SOR!), then half of that is £83, the cost of today's SSS. They'd change the restrictions of this newly introduced SVS to match that of the old SSS (you can't stop them doing this!), thus nothing changes. Admittedly they'd be forced to introduce this £42 Super Off Peak Single, but they'd just make that ticket very, very, very restrictive and thus effectively useless.