Poor quality passenger rail service increases demand for private car purchases

[43066]

If people don't back to trains as normal, then that would blow the argument that strikes don't matter, because passengers come back anyway.

But the evidence shows passengers do come back, much as that might annoy you. Can you identify a historical railway strike where that hasn’t happened?

No I don't want to take that right away, but I want to create a scenario where there is no point going on strike because it won't work. What the point in having trains if you can't use them?

The other day you seemed to suggest we shouldn’t live in cities anymore, to avoid using trains, so I’m not sure how seriously to take this.

I question whether that reflects commercial reality of how most people wish to travel. To be persuaded to use a train, they want it to be as close as possible to the convenience of leaving at whether time they choose and getting into their car.

Who wants to to wait 40 minutes so that the rail industry can have 'consistency'?

Most people who use trains, and public transport generally, understand the concept that they run to a timetable, and that they need to go to a station to catch it. Very few public transport options, outside of intensely operated urban metros, are “turn up and go”.

Getting a £30 London-Edinburgh fare takes some considerable effort and flexibility (though Lumo makes it a bit easier). Not everyone is able to plan 3 months in advance. I don't think I've ever bought a ticket that far in advance. Using the car doesn't require planning in advance, though hotel bookings do so you'd not be doing Edinburgh without a bit of planning for the risk of having to kip on a park bench, but you can day trip anywhere reasonably short by car on zero notice and it not cost more.

Yet LNER trains are full to bursting, so the comments upthread about long distance rail travel being the preserve of the rich are clearly absurd. In my experience long distance trains are used by a broad cross section of people including students, day trippers etc. who clearly aren’t “rich”, but are savvy enough to benefit from the various discounts and railcards that are available.

 

[GoneSouth]

I'm not sure about that. I had more disposable income when I was living at home until I bought my first house in my late twenties and after I'd paid off the mortgage but was still working fulltime. Of course there is the Family Railcard for those with kids and Two Together for couples/friends travelling together. Both those groups would otherwise typically find the car much cheaper than the train, unlike lone passengers.

Apologies, you maybe correct given the increase in mortgage rates and the cost of rent recently.

I didn’t make it clear when I said 25 to 60, I was referring to the under 25s having access to a young persons railcard.

 

[12LDA28C]

Getting a £30 London-Edinburgh fare takes some considerable effort and flexibility (though Lumo makes it a bit easier). Not everyone is able to plan 3 months in advance. I don't think I've ever bought a ticket that far in advance. Using the car doesn't require planning in advance, though hotel bookings do so you'd not be doing Edinburgh without a bit of planning for the risk of having to kip on a park bench, but you can day trip anywhere reasonably short by car on zero notice and it not cost more.

I'll repeat yet again that the journey for the £30 fare quoted (with Lumo) was in less than a fortnight. Hardly months away.

 

[GoneSouth]

I'll repeat yet again that the journey was in less than a fortnight. Hardly months away.

If only all TOCs offered such easy access to reduced price advanced tickets.

You, yes you XC

 

[boxy321]

I gave two non-driving, train-using friends a lift to Heathrow from Coventry on Friday. Took less than 2 hours each way and £26 total in fuel. They never usually travel by car and I will be expecting a phone call if things are as bad as last week when they return.

 

[johncrossley]

But the evidence shows passengers do come back, much as that might annoy you. Can you identify a historical railway strike where that hasn’t happened?

Well, you don't know how many passengers there would be if there hadn't been a history of strike action on the railways. The only thing we can say for certain is that the railway famous for not striking carries more passengers per capita than any other in Europe, and doesn't even have the benefit of a huge megacity where train travel is almost unavoidable. If Switzerland went on strike regularly they may not be so successful. If you are travelling to central London there is basically no choice but to go by train. On strike days a small percentage may use coaches and their cars but in general you simply can't travel. People go to London by train because they have no choice, not necessarily because the service is excellent. Many if not most of the train travellers not going to London don't have much choice either, because they don't drive or don't have a car available. They are helpless on strike days.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Yet LNER trains are full to bursting, so the comments upthread about long distance rail travel being the preserve of the rich are clearly absurd. In my experience long distance trains are used by a broad cross section of people including students, day trippers etc. who clearly aren’t “rich”, but are savvy enough to benefit from the various discounts and railcards that are available.

I would say they are the preserve of the middle classes to a fair extent, with a few exceptions. And I don't think it should be necessary to be 'savvy' to get a good value fare, though I know some on here disagree because they're good at it!

Fundamentally, if a walk-up peak train fare for one costs more than driving+C-charge+parking in an average car, it's way too expensive. Even using the 45p/mile figure for the cost of driving (which is rather high as it takes account of purchase, insurance etc; the HMRC marginal figure is 25p), InterCity Anytimes are way overpriced.

 

[12LDA28C]

If only all TOCs offered such easy access to reduced price advanced tickets.

You, yes you XC

Indeed. A £30 fare is available Edinburgh - London early next week (Tuesday) on Lumo.

 

[O L Leigh]

Well, you don't know how many passengers there would be if there hadn't been a history of strike action on the railways.

To be entirely fair, neither do you so the point must remain moot.

The only thing we can say for certain is that the railway famous for not striking carries more passengers per capita than any other in Europe, and doesn't even have the benefit of a huge megacity where train travel is almost unavoidable. If Switzerland went on strike regularly they may not be so successful.

I don't think that you can completely attribute the Swiss, or indeed anyone else's, network's supposed success solely to the absence of industrial action. There are other factors to consider also.

 

[12LDA28C]

Fundamentally, if a walk-up peak train fare for one costs more than driving+C-charge+parking in an average car, it's way too expensive. Even using the 45p/mile figure for the cost of driving (which is rather high as it takes account of purchase, insurance etc), InterCity Anytimes are way overpriced.

Were we not discussing long-distance travel? I find it unlikely that most people would make a snap decision to make a long-distance train journey so quoting walk-on fares which is always going to make the railways seem expensive seems disingenuous.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Were we not discussing long-distance travel? I find it unlikely that most people would make a snap decision to make a long-distance train journey so quoting walk-on fares which is always going to make the railways seem expensive seems disingenuous.

Most people probably know they're going to Manchester for the day next weekend, but most people don't know three months in advance.

Plus, it's fairly normal to go somewhere and not know exactly what time you need to come back. Most of my long distance trips could probably stand an Advance outward (as I know which day I'm going) but would need a walk-up for the way back.

Plus there are never many super-cheap Advances on peak time trains. There may be one or two as a lead-in, but once sold anyone wishing to travel has to cough up royally. And while most trips might have a bit of flexibility of time, say +/- an hour or two in each direction, most don't have flexibility of day, e.g. I can't go for a weekend away with the kids on a Wednesday unless it's school holidays (and you can be sure the fare will be cranked right up then).

 

[43066]

I'll repeat yet again that the journey for the £30 fare quoted (with Lumo) was in less than a fortnight. Hardly months away.

I do suspect some of those who regularly complain about fares either simply can’t be bothered to search for discounts, aren’t very good with tech, or a combination thereof.

I would say they are the preserve of the middle classes to a fair extent, with a few exceptions. And I don't think it should be necessary to be 'savvy' to get a good value fare, though I know some on here disagree because they're good at it!

I would agree, but that still isn’t most peoples’ definition of “rich”, and it does include many students and young people.

Re your second sentence, isn’t that much the same as any form of transport? To be fair even mainstream websites such as The Train Line now offer split tickets, so this kind of thing is open to the casual traveller who won’t want to spend hours hunting for obscure easements.

Obviously it would be better if more options were available but AIUI the DfT has prevented that and seems to want to keep the traditional peak/off peak model.

Fundamentally, if a walk-up peak train fare for one costs more than driving+C-charge+parking in an average car, it's way too expensive.

But if people are willing and able to pay, and clearly they are based on how busy the trains are, who’s to say it’s too expensive?

 

[Bletchleyite]

But if people are willing and able to pay, and clearly they are based on how busy the trains are, who’s to say it’s too expensive?

It depends on what your model is.

It has always been the case that the high Anytime fares pioneered by Virgin maximise income/profit, but that in doing so they leave trains half-empty (which then stop "off-Takt" at MKC to pick up commuters and fill up there, so Virgin basically got to charge twice).

In a subsidised operation, I think it's fair to argue that simple maximising of income isn't acceptable, as it doesn't make best use of the subsidy, and instead that what you want to aim for with your yield management is "all seats full throughout", or as near as you can get to it, i.e. maximising a balance of income and utility. That demands a lower Anytime fare. Not necessarily price-dumped, but I worked out that "driving+parking+CC" figure using the HMRC 45p rate earlier in the thread and for Manchester to London it comes out about £230, not £350. That gives you an idea. Still pricey, but not outrageous.

Now clearly if a TOC was wholly commercial like Lumo then that's kind of up to them what they want to do. But if it's a subsidised, franchised TOC then simply maximising income using tax money paid by the rich and the poor alike is just plain morally wrong.

 

[TUC]

Family Railcards help, but I'd agree for adults that it quickly gets expensive unless it's the same adult all the time so the Two Together applies. But full cars aren't really an issue and so aren't really worth concentrating on. A full car makes pretty good use of roadspace and is environmentally quite efficient - not as good as a coach, but if you consider how big a gap you need to leave between trains it's probably up there with those, particularly DMUs.

The problem is more, as is too often the case, that it isn't just a full car that's cheaper than a train. Just two people in the car can often be cheaper.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The problem is more, as is too often the case, that it isn't just a full car that's cheaper than a train. Just two people in the car can often be cheaper.

And with Anytime fares one often is - and that's downright wrong.

 

[miklcct]

Cheap and easily available car hire should be the answer. I've not seen car hire offices at many rail stations, unlike airports. Isn't this the ideal compromise and couldn't train companies be a bit more imaginative with linked deals? As someone who hates driving but enjoys exploring country areas I'd love to see this. (Or examples of it already happening)

Car clubs do that. I can hire a car near multiple train stations through my car club, for example, Eastleigh, Bournemouth, Bristol, etc.

 

[12LDA28C]

Most people probably know they're going to Manchester for the day next weekend, but most people don't know three months in advance.

Plus, it's fairly normal to go somewhere and not know exactly what time you need to come back. Most of my long distance trips could probably stand an Advance outward (as I know which day I'm going) but would need a walk-up for the way back.

Plus there are never many super-cheap Advances on peak time trains. There may be one or two as a lead-in, but once sold anyone wishing to travel has to cough up royally. And while most trips might have a bit of flexibility of time, say +/- an hour or two in each direction, most don't have flexibility of day, e.g. I can't go for a weekend away with the kids on a Wednesday unless it's school holidays (and you can be sure the fare will be cranked right up then).

Again, where are you getting the 'three months' from?

I can get a single Euston - Manchester in 8 days' time for £32. Admittedly it's not a peak time train but if you're cost conscious and travelling for leisure (say a few days away) then wouldn't you just adjust your plans to accommodate the cheapest fare?

 

[43066]

In a subsidised operation, I think it's fair to argue that simple maximising of income isn't acceptable, as it doesn't make best use of the subsidy,

Well yes that’s a fair point, but unfortunately the government clearly views minimising and offsetting subsidy as being more important than ensuring it is used effectively!

 

[TUC]

Well, you don't know how many passengers there would be if there hadn't been a history of strike action on the railways. The only thing we can say for certain is that the railway famous for not striking carries more passengers per capita than any other in Europe, and doesn't even have the benefit of a huge megacity where train travel is almost unavoidable. If Switzerland went on strike regularly they may not be so successful. If you are travelling to central London there is basically no choice but to go by train. On strike days a small percentage may use coaches and their cars but in general you simply can't travel. People go to London by train because they have no choice, not necessarily because the service is excellent. Many if not most of the train travellers not going to London don't have much choice either, because they don't drive or don't have a car available. They are helpless on strike days.

As with so many aspects of public policy, if you want to identify the right approach for the UK as a whole, disregard London.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Again, where are you getting the 'three months' from?

I can get a single Euston - Manchester in 8 days' time for £32. Admittedly it's not a peak time train but if you're cost conscious and travelling for leisure (say a few days away) then wouldn't you just adjust your plans to accommodate the cheapest fare?

And an Off Peak Return is about £100 (just under, I think), so while that's discounted it's not heavily discounted.

I'm not saying Off Peaks are outrageous, I think they're a reasonable cap on the WCML (and are typically about 10% below other routes). I'm saying Anytimes are outrageous.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 9 Jan 2023 ==

Well yes that’s a fair point, but unfortunately the government clearly views minimising and offsetting subsidy as being more important than ensuring it is used effectively!

Which is part of the problem. In the end under no circumstances whatsoever am I willing to pay £350 for a return journey between Euston and the North West. I'd rather not go, drive or use a road coach.

£200 I might be willing to pay if I really need to go at that time/day. It should certainly be no more than that, ideally a bit less - £150 return peak would be heading into the world of "actually reasonable".

 

[miklcct]

And with Anytime fares one often is - and that's downright wrong.

The proper comparison should be with off-peak fares since the anytime fares are just outrageous that no one will bother pay it.

 

[43066]

As with so many aspects of public policy, if you want to identify the right approach for the UK as a whole, disregard London.

And as has been pointed out time and again the majority of UK train journeys take place in London and the South East (counting both commuter routes entirely within that region, and long distance trains to and from).

 

[TUC]

And an Off Peak Return is about £100 (just under, I think), so while that's discounted it's not heavily discounted.

I'm not saying Off Peaks are outrageous, I think they're a reasonable cap on the WCML (and are typically about 10% below other routes). I'm saying Anytimes are outrageous.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 9 Jan 2023 ==



Which is part of the problem. In the end under no circumstances whatsoever am I willing to pay £350 for a return journey between Euston and the North West. I'd rather not go, drive or use a road coach.

£200 I might be willing to pay if I really need to go at that time/day.

It is striking how the much greater level of completion on the ECML than the WCML has driven many prices lower.

 

[Bletchleyite]

And as has been pointed out time and again the majority of UK train journeys take place in London and the South East (counting both commuter routes entirely within that region, and long distance trains to and from).

Which would tend to mean that you need different policies for the former NSE than IC than regional in the rest of the country. And BR got that, because despite being one organisation it did!

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 9 Jan 2023 ==

It is striking how the much greater level of completion on the ECML than the WCML has driven many prices lower.

Has it? ECML Super Off Peaks are about 10% higher than WCML ones (for historical reasons, but the competition hasn't made LNER reduce them). Yes, Advances, but not everyone can fix their time of travel, particularly on their return, while the car offers total flexibility.

To be fair to LNER air is the main competitor to Newcastle and Edinburgh so that model likely works, but it's still car from York/Leeds southwards.

 

[TUC]

And as has been pointed out time and again the majority of UK train journeys take place in London and the South East (counting both commuter routes entirely within that region, and long distance trains to and from).

Yes, but if you want to increase rail usage across the country, building policy around the needs of where it is already heavily used is the wrong approach. The density of population and the multiplicity of towns very close together in the South East is also unrepresentative of the UK.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 9 Jan 2023 ==

Which would tend to mean that you need different policies for the former NSE than IC than regional in the rest of the country. And BR got that, because despite being one organisation it did!

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 9 Jan 2023 ==



Has it? ECML Super Off Peaks are about 10% higher than WCML ones (for historical reasons, but the competition hasn't made LNER reduce them). Yes, Advances, but not everyone can fix their time of travel, particularly on their return, while the car offers total flexibility.

To be fair to LNER air is the main competitor to Newcastle and Edinburgh so that model likely works, but it's still car from York/Leeds southwards.

Grand Central, Hull Trains and Lumo fares are all cheaper alternative options to LNER, and have almost certainly played a role in Anytime fares being lower on the East Coast than the West Coast.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Grand Central, Hull Trains and Lumo fares are all cheaper alternative options to LNER, and have almost certainly played a role in Anytime fares being lower on the East Coast than the West Coast.

They aren't significantly.

London to Manchester: approx 200 miles, Anytime Return £350
London to Leeds: approx 200 miles, Anytime Single x2 (as there aren't returns) £291

Cheaper, but not anywhere near "cheaper enough". I suspect it's got more to do with GNER having different policies to Virgin in early privatisation days - since then there's been little major change to walk-up fare structure and pricing levels on most TOCs, all they've done is renamed tickets (BVR -> Saver, SVR -> Super Off Peak) and stuck the standard fare increase percentage on it.

 

[TUC]

They aren't significantly.

London to Manchester: approx 200 miles, Anytime Return £350
London to Leeds: approx 200 miles, Anytime Single x2 (as there aren't returns) £291

Cheaper, but not anywhere near "cheaper enough". I suspect it's got more to do with GNER having different policies to Virgin in early privatisation days - since then there's been little major change to walk-up fare structure and pricing levels on most TOCs, all they've done is renamed tickets (BVR -> Saver, SVR -> Super Off Peak) and stuck the standard fare increase percentage on it.

Ask most passengers if £51 difference is a significant amount of money and they will certainly say yes.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Ask most passengers if £51 difference is a significant amount of money and they will certainly say yes.

It's not enough to get anywhere near the realms of "reasonable" or "affordable". And as I said it's got absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with competition, it's just early-days privatisation policy with a load of standard-percentage fares increases whacked on top.

Let's say it was £1000 or £1500. £1000 is clearly less than £1500 by a major margin, but as neither is reasonable nor affordable it's irrelevant. Meanwhile ECML Off Peaks generally run about 10-20% higher than WCML ones, again directly due to early-privatisation fares policy with a load of standard increases piled on top. Competition working? I think not.

Leeds-London Super Off Peak x2 single: about £120
Manchester-London Off Peak Return: about £100

Edit: and 'angonnamo, wasn't it the case that First-FS were going to reduce some of those stupid fares a bit - I half recall hearing either £250 or even £200 for Manchester-London - but then COVID and the dead hand of DaFT got in the way?

 

[johncrossley]

Even before Covid you had the nonsense of WCML trains running half empty in peak and then overcrowding on the first off-peak train. Business is now too savvy to pay daft peak fares these days.

 

[A0]

Yet it's the single person age 18-60 who is penalised by the fares system !

There's an 18-25 railcard https://www.16-25railcard.co.uk/

So it's 25 to 60 - or in other words, those likely to be in full time employment as opposed to those who are either in education or retired who will have a lower income.