Possible TPE fleet reductions?

[Greybeard33]

Regarding Northern West, this Times article:

The Times & The Sunday Times

News and opinion from The Times & The Sunday Times

www.thetimes.co.uk

(possible paywall, sorry)

says:

Passengers also face having some services cut further with the TransPennine Express said to be considering reducing the number of carriages on trains from six to three.

Split from the May 2023 Changes thread as this is speculative.

DfT appears hellbent on reducing rolling stock leasing costs nationally, where opportunities arise to return trains to the ROSCO at the end of an existing contract (e.g GWR 769s). I believe (some of?/all of?) TPE's lease contracts will terminate this year, at the end of the 2016 franchise period. The above Times story suggests that there may be a plan to operate 185s as single 3-car units on services currently booked as 6-car formations. This implies that TPE might intend to send some stock off lease. Not necessarily 185s - for example the Mk5a sets might be returned, with 185s taking over their workings.

Taking the speculation a stage further, Northern lease contracts mostly run until 2025, limiting the scope for savings from near term service cuts. Whereas TPE currently do not have enough traincrew with the competencies needed to operate their timetable reliably. Might DfT be hatching a plot for Northern to take over some, or some parts of, TPE services, where routes currently overlap such that Northern traincrew already have the requisite route knowledge? Northern stock and crew could be released for this by cutting heavily subsidised services elsewhere on the Northern network. That would enable more TPE stock to be withdrawn.

Thoughts?

 

[Bletchleyite]

The Mk5 sets would be a shoe-in to replace HSTs in Scotland on the same basis as TPE originally got them, i.e. when the wires go up, replace the 68 with an electric locomotive, FWIW. So they wouldn't necessarily go in the bin.

397s, well, I've said before LNER need some EMUs and are open to CAF being the supplier...

That'd leave a retrenched TPE to operate all services using 802s and 185s (which are underused anyway).

 

[mike57]

Maybe long term plan (I use the word in its broadest sense, as anything to do with the current government and 'plan' shouldn't really exist in the same sentence) is to do away with TPE as a separate brand and roll everything into Northern. As for running 3 car units on Leeds - Manchester and Sheffield - Manchester, with current service level (not timetabled, actual delivered) it will just frighten off any remaining passengers.

As @Bletchleyite states Mk 5s would probably go, they promised much, but really failed to deliver, the plus of not having an underfloor engine was replaced by a very jiggly ride, and a lot of teething problems. I had hoped for something closer to the Mk3 experience.

Only had 1 experience of 397s, and it wasn't long enough to form an opinion, but would there be enough 802s to go around, assuming you tried to avoid using 185 under wires. (802s continue on Newcastle - Liverpools) assuming you have a sparser timetable than the current full timetable.

 

[Bletchleyite]

It's also of note that TPE are presently operating the Hudds stoppers which are really Northern services (used to be 142s) due to their extreme surplus of rolling stock.

Mk5s are fun for enthusiasts but in terms of what they deliver (bar First Class which is great) they're pretty rubbish to be honest. Though I could see, as I said, ScotRail taking them on and upgrading a bit, e.g. improving window alignment and seat comfort.

 

[xotGD]

Oh great. Yet another "bin the Mark 5s" thread.

 

[43096]

It's also of note that TPE are presently operating the Hudds stoppers which are really Northern services (used to be 142s) due to their extreme surplus of rolling stock.

Mk5s are fun for enthusiasts but in terms of what they deliver (bar First Class which is great) they're pretty rubbish to be honest. Though I could see, as I said, ScotRail taking them on and upgrading a bit, e.g. improving window alignment and seat comfort.

How many more times do you need to be told that the ScotRail HSTs are on a Section 54 agreement guaranteeing the lease through to 2030?

 

[nr758123]

Drive most of the passengers away by making the service unusable. Use this as a pretext to cut the timetable back further. Save money on the leasing chargers of rolling stock which is no longer required. Yes, I can see how that might work.

 

[DanNCL]

The 802s aren’t the fantastic reliable units that some on these forums seem to think they are - quite the opposite in fact, as from the fleet of 19 they can’t even get enough of them working to cover every diagram on the Newcastle route, the one time there was actually enough crew to run the diagrams there weren’t enough working units! As with just about anything that comes out of the former AnsaldoBreda site in Pistoia, the TPE 802s are poor performers when it comes to availability, quite a contrast with their Newton Aycliffe built 803 cousins with Lumo that are generally achieving good availability.

Bearing in mind the 802s can’t even cover all of the Newcastle route reliably, we can’t realistically plan to use them anywhere else on top of that. Which leaves Saltburn, Scarborough, Hull and Cleethorpes to the 185s and Mark 5s. The obvious solution here seems to be to double up the 185s on all Saltburn, Scarborough and Hull workings, and to exclusively use Mark 5s on the Cleethorpes route. And the 397s would have to stay put on the WCML, not least cause there’s nothing to replace them, but because they’re suitable for the route and are capable of running the WCML service with a reasonable level of reliability, even if not perfect they’re no worse than the 802s in that regard. There seems to be an obsession with some here to get rid of everything built by CAF at any cost.

So in short, no there isn’t any scope for cutting TPE’s fleet back. Anyone suggesting there’s scope for cutting the fleet, especially on the North TPE route, clearly doesn’t remember just how packed it was across the Pennines on a single 185 back when they were all there was on TPE!

As for the Huddersfield stoppers, it’s pretty obvious they should be with Northern and using Sprinters or 195s.

 

[Energy]

So in short, no there isn’t any scope for cutting TPE’s fleet back.

Given how low the utilisation of mk5s was at some point (and probably still is) they'll cope just fine. TPE were originally meant to loose a lot of the 185s.

The 397s should be kept for now, they are fairly self contained on the WCML routes.

 

[DanNCL]

Given how low the utilisation of mk5s was at some point (and probably still is) they'll cope just fine. TPE were originally meant to loose a lot of the 185s.

The 397s should be kept for now, they are fairly self contained on the WCML routes.

The Mark 5s saw an increase in diagrams in December. They now cover most Scarborough workings as well as a few Cleethorpes workings.

 

[Sorcerer]

I find it remarkable there's even suggestions of TPE's fleet being scaled back when the Mark 5As are currently the most underutilised passenger stock in the UK. I was personally hoping to ride them on the Scarborough route one day but I don't remember the last time the Liverpool-Scarborough service ran. I've only had the opportunity to use the 802s between Lime Street and Manchester Victoria on the Newcastle route, and while decent trains I think visually they are my least favourite of the Nova fleet.

 

[DanNCL]

I find it remarkable there's even suggestions of TPE's fleet being scaled back when the Mark 5As are currently the most underutilised passenger stock in the UK. I was personally hoping to ride them on the Scarborough route one day but I don't remember the last time the Liverpool-Scarborough service ran. I've only had the opportunity to use the 802s between Lime Street and Manchester Victoria on the Newcastle route, and while decent trains I think visually they are my least favourite of the Nova fleet.

Scarborough - Piccadilly has run every 2 hours since December and is mostly Mark 5 booked. York - Scarborough shuttles still run every 2 hours too, and are also mostly Mark 5 booked.

 

[Sorcerer]

Scarborough - Piccadilly has run every 2 hours since December and is mostly Mark 5 booked. York - Scarborough shuttles still run every 2 hours too, and are also mostly Mark 5 booked.

Beats me then as to why they stopped running through to Liverpool. TPE is truly a mess of an operation these days though so in some ways it's almost merciful that my area isn't subjected to their cancelled trains.

 

[DanNCL]

Beats me then as to why they stopped running through to Liverpool. TPE is truly a mess of an operation these days though so in some ways it's almost merciful that my area isn't subjected to their cancelled trains.

Cleethorpes now runs through to Liverpool instead of Scarborough.

 

[JonathanH]

I find it remarkable there's even suggestions of TPE's fleet being scaled back when the Mark 5As are currently the most underutilised passenger stock in the UK.

Sounds like a fairly good argument to give them up.

 

[nr758123]

As for the Huddersfield stoppers, it’s pretty obvious they should be with Northern and using Sprinters or 195s.

At the time the change was made, class 195s were not in service and sprinters were unable to match the timings of class 185s.

 

[gledhill56]

What is it with most members of this forum being against the Mk5a stock and constantly clutching at straws to bin them off?

 

[popeter45]

The Mk5 sets would be a shoe-in to replace HSTs in Scotland on the same basis as TPE originally got them, i.e. when the wires go up, replace the 68 with an electric locomotive, FWIW. So they wouldn't necessarily go in the bin.

397s, well, I've said before LNER need some EMUs and are open to CAF being the supplier...

That'd leave a retrenched TPE to operate all services using 802s and 185s (which are underused anyway).

issue would be their isnt enough Mark 5A sets
13 5 car sets + a few spare parts of a set would only cover half the 26 HST sets currently used by scotsrail

 

[HamworthyGoods]

How many more times do you need to be told that the ScotRail HSTs are on a Section 54 agreement guaranteeing the lease through to 2030?

A section 54 only guarantees the lease doesn’t guarantee them actually being used.

Partly depends if ASLEF continue their murmuring and cab crashworthyness needs addressing along with work to stop bogies becoming detached at which point it might become more financially viable rather than spend that money to instead park the HSTs up and use something else. It really does depend what needs doing and how expensive it is.

The same happened with 442s, the costs to keep on going with the project was outweighed by moving to a different solution with a different leasing company (Porterbrook) even though the last 5 years or so of the lease with Angel for the 442s had to be paid off (similar timescales to the Scottish HSTs in terms of remaining lease).

issue would be their isnt enough Mark 5A sets
13 5 car sets + a few spare parts of a set would only cover half the 26 HST sets currently used by scotsrail

Not all the HSTs are currently used, a number are in store and Scotrail has not pointed at any desire to increase the number of diagrams.

 

[Sorcerer]

Sounds like a fairly good argument to give them up.

With the money that was spent on them combined with their relatively little mileage I feel like it would make more sense to find some use for them as soon as possible, otherwise their procurement would be a total financial farce in my opinion.

 

[SuperNova]

From what I gather, TPE should be operating the following (except the state of TPE), as per MRTF. Please correct me if I'm making wrong assumptions (not including 802 diagram on WCML or hybrid rolling stock on Scarborough or Cleethorpes)

Liverpool - Newcastle: 7 x 802
Manchester - Newcastle: 6 x 802
Edinburgh - Newcastle: 2 x 802

Manchester Airport - Edinburgh: 4 x 397
Manchester Airport - Glasgow: 4 x 397
Liverpool - Glasgow 1 x 397

Liverpool - Cleethorpes: 8 x Mk5

Man Airport - Saltburn: 16 x 185s
Liverpool - Hull: 14 x 185s
Leeds - Huddersfield: 2 x 185
Manchester Pic - Huddersfield: 2 x 185
Manchester - Scarborough: 12 x 185

So that leaves:
15 of 18 802s accounted for (one 802 has gone for battery trial)
9 of 12 397s
8 of 13 Mk5s
46 of 51 185s

However, given TPE were set to extend Manchester Pic to Huddersfield services through to York via Wakefield and Castleford, you may need at least 5 185s to cover that route. And clearly the Scarborough route would then be a hybrid of Mk5s and 185s, but is that a waste?

Essentially, if TPE runs the services they should run there would be no need for fleet reductions.

 

[RobShipway]

I cannot see the need for TPE to reduce their fleet, especially if during the summer months TPE end up using all their fleet.

However, if the MK5A's where to be ditched by TPE, could they not replace the MK3 coaches at Chiltern?

 

[DanNCL]

At the time the change was made, class 195s were not in service and sprinters were unable to match the timings of class 185s.

Indeed, but they’re available now and have been for the past 3 years. Timekeeping isn’t so much of an issue on the stoppers as there isn’t time between stops to get up to full speed anyway.

Essentially, if TPE runs the services they should run there would be no need for fleet reductions.

Exactly. Any fleet cuts would mean shortening diagrams on the North TPE route to 3 car. This photo I took a few years back shows nicely what happens when 3 car 185s run the main service on North TPE…

 

[Philip]

From what I gather, TPE should be operating the following (except the state of TPE), as per MRTF. Please correct me if I'm making wrong assumptions (not including 802 diagram on WCML or hybrid rolling stock on Scarborough or Cleethorpes)

Liverpool - Newcastle: 7 x 802
Manchester - Newcastle: 6 x 802
Edinburgh - Newcastle: 2 x 802

Manchester Airport - Edinburgh: 4 x 397
Manchester Airport - Glasgow: 4 x 397
Liverpool - Glasgow 1 x 397

Liverpool - Cleethorpes: 8 x Mk5

Man Airport - Saltburn: 16 x 185s
Liverpool - Hull: 14 x 185s
Leeds - Huddersfield: 2 x 185
Manchester Pic - Huddersfield: 2 x 185
Manchester - Scarborough: 12 x 185

So that leaves:
15 of 18 802s accounted for (one 802 has gone for battery trial)
9 of 12 397s
8 of 13 Mk5s
46 of 51 185s

However, given TPE were set to extend Manchester Pic to Huddersfield services through to York via Wakefield and Castleford, you may need at least 5 185s to cover that route. And clearly the Scarborough route would then be a hybrid of Mk5s and 185s, but is that a waste?

Essentially, if TPE runs the services they should run there would be no need for fleet reductions.

The Manchester-Scarborough could probably be cut between Manchester and York and instead run as a shuttle from York, with single 185s. This would release about 9 185s or 4-5 mk5 rakes with the moving around of stock.

 

[Watershed]

Cleethorpes now runs through to Liverpool instead of Scarborough.

It's Hull through to Liverpool instead of Scarborough. The Cleethorpes service runs via the CLC, which the Scarborough/Hull service could only access if it crossed the Piccadilly throat once again.

From what I gather, TPE should be operating the following (except the state of TPE), as per MRTF. Please correct me if I'm making wrong assumptions (not including 802 diagram on WCML or hybrid rolling stock on Scarborough or Cleethorpes)

Liverpool - Newcastle: 7 x 802
Manchester - Newcastle: 6 x 802
Edinburgh - Newcastle: 2 x 802

Manchester Airport - Edinburgh: 4 x 397
Manchester Airport - Glasgow: 4 x 397
Liverpool - Glasgow 1 x 397

Liverpool - Cleethorpes: 8 x Mk5

Man Airport - Saltburn: 16 x 185s
Liverpool - Hull: 14 x 185s
Leeds - Huddersfield: 2 x 185
Manchester Pic - Huddersfield: 2 x 185
Manchester - Scarborough: 12 x 185

So that leaves:
15 of 18 802s accounted for (one 802 has gone for battery trial)
9 of 12 397s
8 of 13 Mk5s
46 of 51 185s

However, given TPE were set to extend Manchester Pic to Huddersfield services through to York via Wakefield and Castleford, you may need at least 5 185s to cover that route. And clearly the Scarborough route would then be a hybrid of Mk5s and 185s, but is that a waste?

Essentially, if TPE runs the services they should run there would be no need for fleet reductions.

That's broadly correct, although not all the 185 long distance routes are booked for double sets. Also there's supposed to be a second 397 on Liverpool-Glasgow.

If any of this materialises I'd expect something along the lines of:

• Manchester-Newcastle scrapped
• Manchester-Scarborough curtailed to a York shuttle once again
• Liverpool-Glasgow service scrapped
• Manchester-Glasgow frequency reduced to 1tp2h
• More 185s ran as singles

Which would (just about) allow the 397s and Mk5s to be sent off lease.

There are even more extreme options that might be considered, such as terminating the Saltburn service at Redcar again, or transferring Manchester-Huddersfield and/or Huddersfield-Leeds to Northern, which would additionally allow some 185s to be taken off lease.

I'm not suggesting this should happen, but you can imagine the government requiring TPE to do some or all of this as part of their May cutbacks - the currently published timetable does not yet seem to include any cuts.

 

[Bletchleyite]

]There are even more extreme options that might be considered, such as terminating the Saltburn service at Redcar again

It was traditionally Middlesbrough. Do they really need to do something that is a bit akin to extending Avanti Liverpool services onto Merseyrail to Crosby?

 

[Watershed]

It was traditionally Middlesbrough. Do they really need to do something that is a bit akin to extending Avanti Liverpool services onto Merseyrail to Crosby?

There's no additional cost in terms of units or crew to sending the service to Redcar - it's a marginal time extension. Given Middlesbrough's lack of a bay platform, it would simply sit in a siding otherwise.

 

[Philip]

Could it be the 185s the DfT are looking at cutting, since they are quite expensive to run?

 

[notadriver]

If a third platform at Middlesbrough was built I think terminating services there would be a real cost saving.

As for the Huddersfield stopping services - 185s were never designed for this kind of work - so I think adding a few minutes to stopping trains and allowing them to be overtaken at locations such as Mirfield, Marsden or Stalybridge would allow far less thirsty 75 mph sprinters to be used.

There's no additional cost in terms of units or crew to sending the service to Redcar - it's a marginal time extension. Given Middlesbrough's lack of a bay platform, it would simply sit in a siding otherwise.

There is no recovery time when services go through to Redcar. It’s a rushed turnaround.

 

[DanNCL]

It's Hull through to Liverpool instead of Scarborough. The Cleethorpes service runs via the CLC, which the Scarborough/Hull service could only access if it crossed the Piccadilly throat once again.


That's broadly correct, although not all the 185 long distance routes are booked for double sets. Also there's supposed to be a second 397 on Liverpool-Glasgow.

If any of this materialises I'd expect something along the lines of:

• Manchester-Newcastle scrapped
• Manchester-Scarborough curtailed to a York shuttle once again
• Liverpool-Glasgow service scrapped
• Manchester-Glasgow frequency reduced to 1tp2h
• More 185s ran as singles

Which would (just about) allow the 397s and Mk5s to be sent off lease.

There are even more extreme options that might be considered, such as terminating the Saltburn service at Redcar again, or transferring Manchester-Huddersfield and/or Huddersfield-Leeds to Northern, which would additionally allow some 185s to be taken off lease.

I'm not suggesting this should happen, but you can imagine the government requiring TPE to do some or all of this as part of their May cutbacks - the currently published timetable does not yet seem to include any cuts.

Hull definitely isn’t running through to Liverpool, at least not for the majority of the day, in the current timetable. Only Cleethorpes and one of the two Newcastle’s is.

Getting rid of Newcastle - Piccadilly only works if Newcastle - Liverpool moves back to the xx:43 path from Newcastle, as it would need to take over the Chester-le-Street calls.

Manchester - Glasgow is already only 1tp2h. It’s unlikely to be scrapped as Transport Scotland would kick off at the resultant loss of the daytime Lockerbie - Glasgow link.