Potential up to 2,000 job losses at Alstom Derby

[LYuen]

Closing down BREL and allowing Metro-Cammell to be acquired by Alston are mistakes.

For the first one, the railway should manage the rolling stock and R&D lifecycle - to ensure rolling stocks are being built at the right time and cost.
The situation of either there is a production backlog and rolling stock shortage, or factories at risk of closing down because orders are completed, should be prevented.

For the latter, I see no reason Alston would build a train in the UK and export to elsewhere. Export is doomed when it is merged with a European giant.
Hitachi Italy turned out to be a perfect acquisition for Italy, despite Trentitalia being the main customer, they still have an independent marketing and R&D division in Italy.

 

[JonathanH]

The situation of either there is a production backlog and rolling stock shortage, or factories at risk of closing down because orders are completed, should be prevented.

Unfortunately, the length of time rolling stock lasts and the capacity in the replacement cycle aren't aligned. If they were, delivery schedules would be slower than they currently are.

 

[Dan G]

Only because the lack of investment before privatisation bunched everything up.

As I said earlier, Turbostars and Electrostars will begin needing replacement once the trains needed for Northern, Chiltern, Southeastern, and GWR have been built, plus whatever the Trans-Pennine route and MML will need after electrification.

 

[Snow1964]

At the moment Derby seems most vulnerable. CAF is not making any noises about closure with Rail and Modern Railways reporting that they have lined up export work for Newport. Siemens Goole will probably be busy with tube trains until early 2030s once the treasury and TfL stop pratting about. Hitachi have an easier job finding work for a smaller factory and the politics of doing so are much easier. Hitachi can divert some work from its home factories to keep Newton Aycliffe open. I don't think that is politically viable for a french company and Derby is three times the size. It wouldn't surprise me if Alstom decide to give the HS2 Derby work to Hitachi and just design trains there. Find a nice out of town location for design staff and free up a huge development site in Derby. An expanded Widnes site would be fine for small amounts of assembly.

Having done bit of reading between the lines of the Financial comments relating to Alstom cash flow problems this week (and not worrying to much about exact words as some were translations from French).

Blatantly obvious that Alstom sees Aventra platform as dead, and sooner what remains to be paid for are sold the better. They even call it a legacy platform. Seems about €600-700m is tied up in built trains not yet paid (roughly £500-600m)

As to Derby future, publicly keeping very quiet, but for now carrying on building some monorail cars, and getting the remaining Aventra fixed and finished so can be paid for, is clearly the priority.

Personally I can easily see Derby closure being announced this side of Christmas. Hitachi can probably build all the reduced number of HS2 trains (assuming less now needed), Siemens might pick up the Scottish EMU & BEMU project to replace 318, 320, 334, which would fit in between batches of tube trains. CAF Newport might get some smaller orders eg Chiltern.

Of the bigger orders (Northern, GWR project Churchward etc) probably not going to see production starting until 2025 or 2026 with trains being completed from 2026 or 2027 onwards which rather leaves Derby without anything, except any export orders it manages to pick up for 2 years.

 

[JonathanH]

Only because the lack of investment before privatisation bunched everything up.

The glut of units that has just been built aren't helpful in bunching everything up.

As I said earlier, Turbostars and Electrostars will begin needing replacement once the trains needed for Northern, Chiltern, Southeastern, and GWR have been built, plus whatever the Trans-Pennine route and MML will need after electrification.

Are you condemning Electrostars to a life of less than 30 years? Why? Once those have been replaced what goes next? 720s?

 

[HSTEd]

The National Rail system has around 16,000 passenger rail vehicles.
If we assume a growth rate in passenger rolling stock of 2% (to be optimistic) then we need 320 vehicles per year.
If we assume the existing stock of vehicles has a 35 year nominal life, that is about 460 vehicles.

We probably need 460-780 vehicles per year in the UK.
I don't think that is enough work to sensibly sustain four factories, let alone considering the problems of being threatened with closures if contracts aren't awarded to all four.

EDIT:

Especially as 35 years ago is 1988, and there is a lot of passenger rolling stock from before then, so 35 years is probably pessimistic. 40 years and 1% growth in rolling stock would be 400+160 for 460-560 total.

 

[The Ham]

Hitachi can probably build all the reduced number of HS2 trains (assuming less now needed),

The number could potentially need to increase, if the journey times aren't improving as much as if 2b was built.

Of course there's other factors, for instance how long a train can Manchester take - as it if they build (say) 300m units for it (12 coaches of 25m) & the journey time is 98 minutes rather than 68 minutes (or 128 currently) it would have a round trip time of 4 hours (rather than 3 hours).

This would mean:
11 coaches x 3 tph x 5 hours =165 coaches (current timetable with all 11 coach trains)
12 coaches x 3 tph x 4 hours = 144 coaches
16 coaches x 3 tph x 3 hours = 144 coaches

Therefore with a slower journey time but shorter trains there's the same number of coaches are needed.

 

[Snow1964]

The number could potentially need to increase, if the journey times aren't improving as much as if 2b was built.

Of course there's other factors, for instance how long a train can Manchester take - as it if they build (say) 300m units for it (12 coaches of 25m) & the journey time is 98 minutes rather than 68 minutes (or 128 currently) it would have a round trip time of 4 hours (rather than 3 hours).

This would mean:
11 coaches x 3 tph x 5 hours =165 coaches (current timetable with all 11 coach trains)
12 coaches x 3 tph x 4 hours = 144 coaches
16 coaches x 3 tph x 3 hours = 144 coaches

Therefore with a slower journey time but shorter trains there's the same number of coaches are needed.

You are correct, would need more for slower service

Does create an interesting problem of which line to put the 390s on if the are too slow to use HS2. The 390s are 19-22 years old (with some newer), so probably expected to survive until 2035-2040.
I guess about dozen for East Coast (to replace remaining 91s), maybe Paddington-Cardiff, but bit non standard unless can also convert Bristol services (frees up some bimodes). So question is do start building the new HS2 fleet early and tell Avanti to lose some recently refurbished 390s

 

[AJDesiro]

You are correct, would need more for slower service

Does create an interesting problem of which line to put the 390s on if the are too slow to use HS2. The 390s are 19-22 years old (with some newer), so probably expected to survive until 2035-2040.
I guess about dozen for East Coast (to replace remaining 91s), maybe Paddington-Cardiff, but bit non standard unless can also convert Bristol services (frees up some bimodes). So question is do start building the new HS2 fleet early and tell Avanti to lose some recently refurbished 390s

The West Coast will still have intercity services running away from HS2, to serve places like Milton Keynes, Rugby and Coventry, so it’s entirely possible some will be retained for those services, since the IET fleet may not be enough.

 

[Dan G]

Afaik I know the design life of trains is typically 30 years and if you push them beyond this it will be painful (witness the Turbos).

The glut of units that has just been built aren't helpful in bunching everything up.


Are you condemning Electrostars to a life of less than 30 years? Why? Once those have been replaced what goes next? 720s?

Electrostars entered service in 1999. Turbostars in 1998. It will take until at least 2029 to manufacture the vehicles for known in-progress procurements (HS2, Northern, Chiltern, Southeastern, GWRish). I'm not sure what you're struggling with here.

E.g.

The Pendolino trains were designed with a life-expectancy of 30 years

Virgin Pendolino fleet clicks up 100 million miles

Virgin Trains iconic Pendolino tilting train fleet, designed, built and maintained by Alstom, has just clocked up 100 million miles since the first train entered service in June 2002.

www.alstom.com

 

[Trainbike46]

Afaik I know the design life of trains is typically 30 years and if you push them beyond this it will be painful (witness the Turbos).

For most trains, design life is usually around 40 years. Depending on the design, it can be possible to push them beyond that, depending on the design (e.g. 1972 stock on LU, which does not currently have a replacement on order despite being 50 years old). From my understanding, the Turbos are having issues with spares availability, rather than having reached their design life.

There is also differences in design life between countries

Electrostars entered service in 1999. Turbostars in 1998. It will take until at least 2029 to manufacture the vehicles for known in-progress procurements (HS2, Northern, Chiltern, Southeastern, GWRish). I'm not sure what you're struggling with here.

E.g.

Virgin Pendolino fleet clicks up 100 million miles

Virgin Trains iconic Pendolino tilting train fleet, designed, built and maintained by Alstom, has just clocked up 100 million miles since the first train entered service in June 2002.

www.alstom.com

 

[Dan G]

I've never seen anything longer than the 35 years proposed for the Voyagers (which seems ambitious for diesels). Can you provide evidence for 40 years?

 

[Bletchleyite]

I've never seen anything longer than the 35 years proposed for the Voyagers (which seems ambitious for diesels). Can you provide evidence for 40 years?

I believe the last Class 101 set was 43 years old when finally retired.

 

[Trainbike46]

I've never seen anything longer than the 35 years proposed for the Voyagers (which seems ambitious for diesels). Can you provide evidence for 40 years?

I was speaking general, not for the voyagers specifically. I personally would be surprised if the voyagers make it to 35 years tbh, I suspect they'll be long gone before then. Though that might be wishful thinking on my part!

But to give some examples of 40 year design life:

New Tube for London (intended for "over 40 years") https://tfl.gov.uk/info-for/media/p...r/design-for-the-new-tube-for-london-revealed

Class 150 (introduced in 1984, currently they're looking at replacement (e.g. Northern tender), but will exceed 40 years before retirement. Most other sprinters will likely hit the 40 year mark as well)

HSTs were introduced 1975-1982, and replaced over 2017 (GWR IET introduction), 2019 (LNER azuma introduction), 2023 (GWR short HST and XC HST retirement), and future (HSTs still in service at GWR, Scotrail and in Mexico), so approximately 40 years as well for most vehicles, though some are heading towards 50 and may reach that before actually retiring

Class 507/508 at merseyrail (introduced 1978-1980, currently being replaced) also exceeded 40 years

The electrostars should be able to reach 40 years, barring spares issues or anything like that

-------------------------- Automerged message --------------------------

Various people on this thread have reported that CAF has secured export orders for Newport. Does anyone know what they'll be building there?

I was thinking it could be the NS DDNG (new double-decker Civity EMUs for the Netherlands), where the contract was signed last year. Could this be the plan for Newport?

NS orders 60 double-decker trains from CAF

NS has awarded CAF a contract, for the supply a new fleet of 60 double-decker trains for intercity services.

www.globalrailwayreview.com

 

[hacman]

But to give some examples of 40 year design life:

Class 150 (introduced in 1984, currently they're looking at replacement (e.g. Northern tender), but will exceed 40 years before retirement. Most other sprinters will likely hit the 40 year mark as well)

HSTs were introduced 1975-1982, and replaced over 2017 (GWR IET introduction), 2019 (LNER azuma introduction), 2023 (GWR short HST and XC HST retirement), and future (HSTs still in service at GWR, Scotrail and in Mexico), so approximately 40 years as well for most vehicles, though some are heading towards 50 and may reach that before actually retiring

Class 507/508 at merseyrail (introduced 1978-1980, currently being replaced) also exceeded 40 years

The electrostars should be able to reach 40 years, barring spares issues or anything like that

It's essential to not conflate "design life" with what can be achieved.

Design life is the initial specified and projected life of vehicles from the point of manufacture, based on a certain maintenance regime and duty cycle, usually assuming no major interventions.

The actual lifespan of vehicles varies dramatically based on a wide range of factors - and some of the examples you've cited are great examples of this, with the HSTs having had complete engine replacements and in some cases significant structural modifications, the 507/8 pretty much falling apart despite an extensive mid-life rebuild, etc.

A vehicle will last forever if you throw enough money at it, but the design life (certainly for contemporary stock) is generally considered to be the point at which it stops being economical to do so, as beyond a certain point you've replaced so much that you may as well have built a new train!

 

[Speed43125]

It's essential to not conflate "design life" with what can be achieved.

Design life is the initial specified and projected life of vehicles from the point of manufacture, based on a certain maintenance regime and duty cycle, usually assuming no major interventions.

The actual lifespan of vehicles varies dramatically based on a wide range of factors - and some of the examples you've cited are great examples of this, with the HSTs having had complete engine replacements and in some cases significant structural modifications, the 507/8 pretty much falling apart despite an extensive mid-life rebuild, etc.

A vehicle will last forever if you throw enough money at it, but the design life (certainly for contemporary stock) is generally considered to be the point at which it stops being economical to do so, as beyond a certain point you've replaced so much that you may as well have built a new train!

Indeed, first generation DMUs in the early 2000s were invariably pretty knackered above the solebar, and we've come pretty close at Northern and Scotrail to writing off Sprinters given the extent of structural work needed; only there are (or at least pre Covid were) few DMUs available to replace them.

I've heard it stated numerous times that under BR a planned life of 30 years for DMUs and 40 for EMUs was expected, although I can't say how true that might be.

The other issue with more modern stock is the computers on them that will rapidly become obsolete, such that I presume trying to alter the TMS or other programming of an early electrostar in the late 2030s might be interesting.

 

[Energy]

I was speaking general, not for the voyagers specifically. I personally would be surprised if the voyagers make it to 35 years tbh, I suspect they'll be long gone before then. Though that might be wishful thinking on my part!

But to give some examples of 40 year design life:

New Tube for London (intended for "over 40 years") https://tfl.gov.uk/info-for/media/p...r/design-for-the-new-tube-for-london-revealed

Class 150 (introduced in 1984, currently they're looking at replacement (e.g. Northern tender), but will exceed 40 years before retirement. Most other sprinters will likely hit the 40 year mark as well)

HSTs were introduced 1975-1982, and replaced over 2017 (GWR IET introduction), 2019 (LNER azuma introduction), 2023 (GWR short HST and XC HST retirement), and future (HSTs still in service at GWR, Scotrail and in Mexico), so approximately 40 years as well for most vehicles, though some are heading towards 50 and may reach that before actually retiring

Class 507/508 at merseyrail (introduced 1978-1980, currently being replaced) also exceeded 40 years

The electrostars should be able to reach 40 years, barring spares issues or anything like that

I wouldn't give a hard and fast rule as it really depends on the trains. Spare parts availability can really control how long they last as parts for Turbos become more difficult to obtain. I wouldn't be surprised if there was a cascade to SouthEastern to let it cannibalize some of the 465/466s short term.

150s have lasted longer than expected, though that's partly because there is fairly little to go wrong.

I could easily see the desiros making 50 years, particularly the 350s.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Asbestos did for many early BR builds, and then the extinction of slam door stock terminated a lot of still-usable stock in 2000.
Disability rules are doing the same for more modern stock.

BR also had a book life factor, which is how long depreciation was carried on the books.
BR was probably paying for early retirements where it took stock out before the booked life ended (eg the diesel hydraulics).
Commercial expiry didn't necessarily mean you retired the stock, just that it was "free" to use after that point, like a house with an expired mortgage.
In the modern leased world, nothing is free.

 

[Chester1]

Various people on this thread have reported that CAF has secured export orders for Newport. Does anyone know what they'll be building there?

I was thinking it could be the NS DDNG (new double-decker Civity EMUs for the Netherlands), where the contract was signed last year. Could this be the plan for Newport?

NS orders 60 double-decker trains from CAF

NS has awarded CAF a contract, for the supply a new fleet of 60 double-decker trains for intercity services.

www.globalrailwayreview.com

I don't think there is anything in public domain about the contract(s). I posted it because I read it in Modern Railways (reported by Roger Ford). The lack of any media reporting about potential closure at a time when they have almost finished their UK orders is a good indication that it is true. If they were about to run out of work at Newport then CAF would be trying to play off the Welsh Government against the DfT. Milan Metro work at Newton Aycliffe leaked out because one of the units was photographed being moved. European voters are less tolerant than British about importing stock when they have a domestic factory. Bombardier announced the Cairo Metro order in the normal fashion. If CAF has lined up export work for Newport then I bet it is something like the order you have suggested, which would explain the lack of publicity.

 

[JonathanH]

Asbestos did for many early BR builds, and then the extinction of slam door stock terminated a lot of still-usable stock in 2000.
Disability rules are doing the same for more modern stock.

Yes, absolutely. The next one of these factors should arguably be diesel propulsion, but won't be.

However, the actual design of rolling stock has not moved on as considerably over the last 20 years, as it did prior to that, and it is difficult to see right now what the pressure will be. It could be level access, but given new stock is being built without that, thinking that issue may see off stock prematurely is quite unlikely at this stage.

Trying to bin off Electrostars just because the oldest ones have reached 30 years from 2029 onwards would be ridiculous, as they are still modern trains and a design where the newest examples will only just be 15 years old. The early 357s, 375s and 377s could easily reach 40 years.

 

[DanNCL]

I’d have more sympathy for the Derby site if they hadn’t just churned out so much unreliable crap. The 345s aren’t exactly shining themselves in glory. And as for the 701s…

The best Derby can hope for is that Alstom gets rid of it and a more reputable manufacture (ie Stadler) bought the site. Unlikely to happen though.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I’d have more sympathy for the Derby site if they hadn’t just churned out so much unreliable crap. The 345s aren’t exactly shining themselves in glory. And as for the 701s…

The best Derby can hope for is that Alstom gets rid of it and a more reputable manufacture (ie Stadler) bought the site. Unlikely to happen though.

I love FLIRTs, but the Merseyrail units are hardly bathing themselves in reliability glory either...from what I'm hearing Merseyrail has turned into rather a joke of late with cancellations and short formations all over the shop.

 

[Dan G]

It's essential to not conflate "design life" with what can be achieved.

Design life is the initial specified and projected life of vehicles from the point of manufacture, based on a certain maintenance regime and duty cycle, usually assuming no major interventions.

The actual lifespan of vehicles varies dramatically based on a wide range of factors - and some of the examples you've cited are great examples of this, with the HSTs having had complete engine replacements and in some cases significant structural modifications, the 507/8 pretty much falling apart despite an extensive mid-life rebuild, etc.

A vehicle will last forever if you throw enough money at it, but the design life (certainly for contemporary stock) is generally considered to be the point at which it stops being economical to do so, as beyond a certain point you've replaced so much that you may as well have built a new train!

Yes exactly. The Class 43s were remanufactured in the 2000s after 30ish years of service – the whole traction package was replaced. The ScotRail Mk3s are famously leaking as they're coming apart at the seams...

I've not seen it myself but there's talk in the Turbo refresh thread of window units begining to fail. When you get to the point the body is failing it's likely everything else is knackered too and it's cheaper to replace than repair (over the next 30 years).

 

[43096]

The Class 43s were remanufactured in the 2000s after 30ish years of service – the whole traction package was replaced.

It wasn't the "whole traction package" at all. Engine and cooler group was the primary work, together with re-wiring (and in some cases a new electronics package) where not already done. Alternators, rectifiers, control system, traction motors etc. were all unchanged.

 

[Townsend Hook]

I love FLIRTs, but the Merseyrail units are hardly bathing themselves in reliability glory either...from what I'm hearing Merseyrail has turned into rather a joke of late with cancellations and short formations all over the shop.

It‘s hardly out of the ordinary for a new fleet of trains to have reliability problems when they enter service.

 

[Chester1]

I’d have more sympathy for the Derby site if they hadn’t just churned out so much unreliable crap. The 345s aren’t exactly shining themselves in glory. And as for the 701s…

The best Derby can hope for is that Alstom gets rid of it and a more reputable manufacture (ie Stadler) bought the site. Unlikely to happen though.

Another factor is that Alstom designed its Widnes site with train assembly in mind, shortly prior to buying a chunk of Bombardier. Alstom could close Derby, move design work to a modern out of town site and do some assembly work in Widnes and make parts in Crewe. Closure of Derby would not necessitate withdrawing from UK.

 

[AJDesiro]

It‘s hardly out of the ordinary for a new fleet of trains to have reliability problems when they enter service.

They’ve been in service 9 months, and can still hardly manage to get above 500 MTIN, which is abominable.

 

[Merle Haggard]

I’d have more sympathy for the Derby site if they hadn’t just churned out so much unreliable crap. The 345s aren’t exactly shining themselves in glory. And as for the 701s…

The best Derby can hope for is that Alstom gets rid of it and a more reputable manufacture (ie Stadler) bought the site. Unlikely to happen though.

Someone I know well works on rolling stock as a job and helps at a steam railway. He says that, without looking at the build plate, you can tell whether a Mk 1 was built at Derby (as against the other works) by the build quality - or lack of it. So it's not recent...

 

[Snow1964]

Another factor is that Alstom designed its Widnes site with train assembly in mind, shortly prior to buying a chunk of Bombardier. Alstom could close Derby, move design work to a modern out of town site and do some assembly work in Widnes and make parts in Crewe. Closure of Derby would not necessitate withdrawing from UK.

Alstom has also recently (just 4 weeks ago) reorganised its legal divisions and factory in Poland, and will be exporting to multiple countries

“By creating a single company, ALSTOM Polska S.A., we are starting a new chapter in Alstom's history in Poland. The merge of three entities with a heritage of more than 120 years of history in Poland and 4000 employees, solidifies our leading position in the market and enables us to serve our customers both in the domestic market, as well as in the international arena, with our export activities extending to Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Germany, the Baltic states and United Arab Emirates,” said Sławomir Cyza, CEO and Managing Director of Alstom in Poland, Ukraine and Baltic States.

Alstom integrates its operations in Poland to form a single company, ALSTOM Polska S.A. and solidifies its leading position in the market

Alstom has merged all the entities previously operating in Poland into one company

www.alstom.com

It is also expecting to deliver first of 37 trains for Romania next month from Konstal factory in Katowice, Poland

Alstom to deliver the first of the 37 trains to Romania in November

On November 25, Alstom will deliver to Romania the first train of the 37 RE-IR1 electric frames to be provided under the contract signed by the Railway Reform Authority (ARF) and Alstom Ferroviaria SpA in March 2022, ARF informed on October 6. This first train will serve the Bucharest-Constanta...

www.romania-insider.com

Makes me wonder if it it still needs Derby as a production site

 

[70014IronDuke]

For most trains, design life is usually around 40 years. Depending on the design, it can be possible to push them beyond that, depending on the design (e.g. 1972 stock on LU, which does not currently have a replacement on order despite being 50 years old). From my understanding, the Turbos are having issues with spares availability, rather than having reached their design life.

I can only say that, for BR in the early 1970s, this is definitely incorrect.

The design life for Mk II carriages was 30 years. And, I'm pretty sure, that is true for the Mk IIIs too.

Whether stock lasted beyond the design life is, of course, a different question.