Potential up to 2,000 job losses at Alstom Derby

[JonathanH]

Core stations are big enough, just lacking platform screen doors. The issue is particularly Heathrow as well as other stations outside the core.

That, and the various standing sidings, particularly Old Oak Common. Yes, the core stations have provision for longer trains, but the idea that a huge sum is available to be spent on the Elizabeth Line just to prolong the life of the Derby plan is fanciful.

 

[Invincible]

Well they will be CrossRail 345 units then.

The Derby Telegraph says,

. It is understood that the Government has offered five trains immediately for production

but not any more detail where the five trains will be used. And how the work will keep Derby and suppliers going till the next big orders

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

The Derby Telegraph says,

but not any more detail where the five trains will be used. And how the work will keep Derby and suppliers going till the next big orders

There are going to be no more big orders for Alstom that option was forgone as soon as we let in Hitachi, CAF and now Siemens as well importing from Stadler. Also given main demand is for 15x replacements that rather leaves the door wide open for CAF and Stadler to be the ones most likely to have a competitive tender for approved products.

 

[hwl]

but not any more detail where the five trains will be used.

It is widely known TfL (in TfL board papers) have been in discussions with Alstom for 5 more 345s for a while to enable the current 12tph Paddington terminators to run further west to Old Oak Common when the GWML station opens in ~4years time.

 

[Invincible]

There are going to be no more big orders for Alstom that option was forgone as soon as we let in Hitachi, CAF and now Siemens as well importing from Stadler. Also given main demand is for 15x replacements that rather leaves the door wide open for CAF and Stadler to be the ones most likely to have a competitive tender for approved products.

The UK Government wanted to stop new diesel power traction to meet climate concerns, until the West and Wales electrication went wrong, and then more diesel power train orders were placed.
Bombardier/Alstom UK did not plan for another Turbostar for a 15x replacement, but concentrated on EMUs and hydrogen power (which did not go well).

Alstom and Eversholt Rail sign an agreement for the UK’s first ever brand-new hydrogen train fleet

A Member of Eversholt UK Rails Group

eversholtrail.co.uk

But battery technology has improved, so a large order for battery trains to replace 15xs and other units is still a possibility for Derby (if it survives the current lack of orders)

 

[hwl]

345 reliability is atrocious according to data presented monthly in modern railways which is sourced from RDG so Alstom need to fix the underlying problems with the Aventra fleet before anymore are ordered.

But is that purely rolling stock reliability in the traditional sense given the level of onboard signalling equipment and constant live comms signal requirement in the Core and for ETCS? Still plenty of non Alstom signalling issues involving trains...

 

[Trainman40083]

The UK Government wanted to stop new diesel power traction to meet climate concerns, until the West and Wales electrication went wrong, and then more diesel power train orders were placed.
Bombardier/Alstom UK did not plan for another Turbostar for a 15x replacement, but concentrated on EMUs and hydrogen power (which did not go well).

Alstom and Eversholt Rail sign an agreement for the UK’s first ever brand-new hydrogen train fleet

A Member of Eversholt UK Rails Group

eversholtrail.co.uk

But battery technology has improved, so a large order for battery trains to replace 15xs and other units is still a possibility for Derby (if it survives the current lack of orders)

Yes, if the Government had wanted to stop new diesel power, I guess East /West rail would have been electrified. I guess Didcot to Oxford may be, they have have remodelled the station, Bristol Parkway to Temple Meads is likely then just the route through Bath

There are going to be no more big orders for Alstom that option was forgone as soon as we let in Hitachi, CAF and now Siemens as well importing from Stadler. Also given main demand is for 15x replacements that rather leaves the door wide open for CAF and Stadler to be the ones most likely to have a competitive tender for approved products.

I seem to recall Bombardier at the time, did not quote for diesel trains, and we're fully committed to electric and TfL...Maybe the Government message was "electric trains are the future". Now, I seem to think there was an option for extra 345s, although ideally that would surely be whilst they are building them

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

It is widely known TfL (in TfL board papers) have been in discussions with Alstom for 5 more 345s for a while to enable the current 12tph Paddington terminators to run further west to Old Oak Common when the GWML station opens in ~4years time.

The OOC GWML station won't be needed until HS2 itself opens.
That could very well be more than 4 years away.
It may be that the existing 345 contract with Alstom has scope for extra trains, but they certainly aren't needed to be produced this year.

 

[Trainbike46]

The OOC GWML station won't be needed until HS2 itself opens.
That could very well be more than 4 years away.
It may be that the existing 345 contract with Alstom has scope for extra trains, but they certainly aren't needed to be produced this year.

maybe not, but if you want them when HS2 opens you need to have them built BEFORE the factory closes, which at the moment seems to limit the options to ordering them now or not ordering them at all

 

[Roast Veg]

There's nothing to say that future Elizabeth Line rolling stock must be Alstom-made. The signalling system is off-the-shelf Siemens CBTC in the core, and ECTS outside of it. The only bespoke part of the whole affair is the platform screen doors.

 

[Energy]

There's nothing to say that future Elizabeth Line rolling stock must be Alstom-made. The signalling system is off-the-shelf Siemens CBTC in the core, and ECTS outside of it. The only bespoke part of the whole affair is the platform screen doors.

The platform screen doors are Masats. Its a lot easier to get the 5 extra 345s built by Alstom now than have a small fleet of different crossrail trains later.

 

[D365]

I’m still not sure if there is a source that confirms additional Crossrail trains will be ”Class 345”?

 

[Snow1964]

I’m still not sure if there is a source that confirms additional Crossrail trains will be ”Class 345”?

The TfL Board papers are clear they want the handful of extra trains to be the same specification, for operating and maintenance simplification.

Non-standard microfleets <10% of the fleet usually have more downsides over lifespan than any initial cost advantage



Financial Times update, Saturday evening

The future of two factories set to build trains for the High Speed 2 line from London to Birmingham is in doubt because a lack of other orders may force their closure before the work is due to begin, Hitachi and Alstom have warned.
Ministers this week told Hitachi that they would not place a new order for conventional trains that would have kept its Newton Aycliffe plant in the north-east of England in business until the HS2 build began in 18 months, according to people familiar with the matter.
Meanwhile, France’s Alstom has told the Financial Times that it had “all but run out of time” to secure the future of its plant in Derby because it also faces a gap in production. Train companies are technically in charge of making rolling stock orders, but their budgets for these are set by the government.
Hitachi and Alstom in 2021 won a contract worth up to £2.8bn to build 54 trains for HS2 rail line. But last year Prime Minister Rishi Sunak cancelled the northern leg of HS2 from Birmingham in the Midlands to Manchester to rein in spiralling costs on what has been the most expensive infrastructure scheme in Europe.
HS2 will still require custom-built trains, but they will run on existing lines north of Birmingham. The initial stages of vehicle body assembly and fit-out are set to be carried out at Hitachi’s plant in Newton Aycliffe while the second stage of fit-out and testing will be done at the Alstom factory in Derby.
The Hitachi factory, which employs 700 people, opened in 2015 and is making its final trains for Avanti West Coast and East Midlands Railway.
Ministers told Hitachi this week they had no plans to order more trains to run on the west coast mainline. That order was seen as the only viable way to plug the production gap. The decision has heightened the risk of significant lay-offs, or even the closure of the plant, although no final decisions have been made, one of the people said.
Doubts over the future of the Newton Aycliffe plant have led some industry executives to suggest that the HS2 trains could end up at least partly built in factories outside of the UK.
In a statement, Hitachi said it was reviewing its options “We have been engaged in discussions at all levels of UK government for two years, in an attempt to find a solution to the production gap at our Newton Aycliffe manufacturing facility. “Disappointingly these discussions have not resulted in a positive resolution,” the statement said. “We are now reviewing all remaining options available to us in order to keep our manufacturing teams building rolling stock to support the UK rail industry.”
Hitachi took a £64.8mn impairment against the value of the plant in its accounts for the year to the end of March 2023, as it signalled the production gap alongside supply chain pressures and rising inflation.
In Derby, Nick Crossfield, managing director of Alstom UK, warned the plant was on the brink of stopping production. “Between now and May, June we will go down to very little, or no, activity, in what is one of the group’s largest facilities worldwide,” he told the BBC this week.
In a statement on Saturday, Alstom said: “We continue to work constructively with the government on securing a sustainable future for Derby Litchurch Lane, but after 10 months of discussions we have all but run out of time, and need to provide the much-needed certainty to our Derby staff and supply chain.”
The Department for Transport said: “The Government is committed to supporting the entire sector and is working with all rolling stock manufacturers, including Hitachi, on the future pipeline of orders which we expect to remain strong in the coming years.”

Lack of orders puts future of HS2 train factories in doubt

Government decision heightens risk of significant lay-offs at Hitachi and Alstom’s UK plants

www.ft.com

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Ironic that Hitachi expanded the facility at Newton Aycliffe to weld car bodies, in order to get more UK content into the HS2 build.
Now they find there is no more work for the plant, when the Avanti and EMR orders are complete.
I don't think there was ever a chance of an increased Avanti order for the WCML.

 

[Mikey C]

I seem to recall Bombardier at the time, did not quote for diesel trains, and we're fully committed to electric and TfL...Maybe the Government message was "electric trains are the future". Now, I seem to think there was an option for extra 345s, although ideally that would surely be whilst they are building them

If Bombardier had changed their mind, and quickly knocked up a diesel Aventra for the Northern requirement, would CAF have got its foothold in the UK with that 195/331 order, which has led to a steady number of other orders, including the most recent one from LNER which could have kept Derby going.

 

[whoosh]

If Bombardier had changed their mind, and quickly knocked up a diesel Aventra for the Northern requirement, would CAF have got its foothold in the UK with that 195/331 order, which has led to a steady number of other orders, including the most recent one from LNER which could have kept Derby going.

Would foothold Aventra diesels be in service yet, or would they be 'doing a 701' and still having problems?

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

If Bombardier had changed their mind, and quickly knocked up a diesel Aventra for the Northern requirement, would CAF have got its foothold in the UK with that 195/331 order, which has led to a steady number of other orders, including the most recent one from LNER which could have kept Derby going.

Those tenders, and any new ones in the future except possibly the extra 345s, would have been competitive, and it is by no means certain Derby would have won.

 

[Trainman40083]

If Bombardier had changed their mind, and quickly knocked up a diesel Aventra for the Northern requirement, would CAF have got its foothold in the UK with that 195/331 order, which has led to a steady number of other orders, including the most recent one from LNER which could have kept Derby going.

You say changed their mind, but the capacity in the factory wasn't there

Ironic that Hitachi expanded the facility at Newton Aycliffe to weld car bodies, in order to get more UK content into the HS2 build.
Now they find there is no more work for the plant, when the Avanti and EMR orders are complete.
I don't think there was ever a chance of an increased Avanti order for the WCML.

I would think HS2 stock is the next West Coast trains. Wonder how old the Pendos will be then.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

I would think HS2 stock is the next West Coast trains. Wonder how old the Pendos will be then.

54x200m HS2 trains is 10800m in total train length.
The Pendolino fleet, if you add up the 35 11-car and 22 9-car, totals 14035m.
The 80x fleet (13x5 and 10x7) is something like 3510m.
So the overall Avanti fleet size is 17545m.

The HS2 fleet could therefore replace about 2/3 of the current Avanti fleet, or 3/4 of the Pendolinos, assuming no growth.
The Pendolino replacement is complicated by the fact that 2 of the 11 cars in the extended sets are a decade younger than the original vehicles, and there are 4 complete sets of this younger age.
The Pendolinos (original vehicles) will be broadly 30 years old in 2032.
The 80x fleet will presumably be good up to 2050 and beyond.

 

[Mikey C]

Those tenders, and any new ones in the future except possibly the extra 345s, would have been competitive, and it is by no means certain Derby would have won.

My point was that if CAF hadn't won the initial Northern order, they might not have bothered tending for other UK work, or just stuck to niche products like the Mk 5s, not bothering with a UK factory.

Instead they became the default option for anyone wanting high floor DMU, the customers who would previously have bought Turbostars, and with that position were able to invest in a UK factory, enabling them to wave the "UK assembled" flag as well. I imagine that helped them win the LNER order at a time of order famines, indeed it was probably a necessity.

 

[Trainman40083]

54x200m HS2 trains is 10800m in total train length.
The Pendolino fleet, if you add up the 35 11-car and 22 9-car, totals 14035m.
The 80x fleet (13x5 and 10x7) is something like 3510m.
So the overall Avanti fleet size is 17545m.

The HS2 fleet could therefore replace about 2/3 of the current Avanti fleet, or 3/4 of the Pendolinos, assuming no growth.
The Pendolino replacement is complicated by the fact that 2 of the 11 cars in the extended sets are a decade younger than the original vehicles, and there are 4 complete sets of this younger age.
The Pendolinos (original vehicles) will be broadly 30 years old in 2032.
The 80x fleet will presumably be good up to 2050 and beyond.

I think we should assume growth, as Pendos might serve new markets along the current WCML. It is interesting that Alstom still seem to be working on the idea of 54 trains. That suggests HS2 in full, else serious curtailment charges for less trains.

 

[Peter Sarf]

345 reliability is atrocious according to data presented monthly in modern railways which is sourced from RDG so Alstom need to fix the underlying problems with the Aventra fleet before anymore are ordered.

I agree there is the possibility we are throwing good money after bad but we have little choice.

The reliablity of 345s might be bad but it is not all down to the 345s themselves. Very complex so a competing product would risk being be up against the same challenges.

No one is going to quote competitively for just five trains that have to suit the same environment as the 345s have to suit. Furthermore TfL will not want a microfleet.

Waiting to fix what may or may not be within Alstoms remit to fix guarantees there wil be no more 345s.

The TfL Board papers are clear they want the handful of extra trains to be the same specification, for operating and maintenance simplification.

Non-standard microfleets <10% of the fleet usually have more downsides over lifespan than any initial cost advantage



Financial Times update, Saturday evening

Lack of orders puts future of HS2 train factories in doubt

Government decision heightens risk of significant lay-offs at Hitachi and Alstom’s UK plants

www.ft.com

It is plain to see to me that the UK's headlong rush to replace intercity trains with IETs resulted in supply having to be supplemented by assembly outside the UK. I feared this would happen at the time. Had we been more patient then Newton Aylcliffe would still be completing those orders and the ones immediately after it. The UK created its own problem.

Anyway there are too many train factories in the UK and something has to go.

Derby is saddled with the reputation Aventra has. Probably caused by making promises to build too much too quickly. Iirc Siemens declined to bid for the Elizabeth line stock as they felt they could not meet the timescale.

Yes we indicated no more DMUs wanted and then changed our minds to the extent that CAF were prepared to design DMUs for the UK loading guage and then even open a factory in the UK. Stalling electrification is doing us harm.

 

[JonathanH]

Had we been more patient then Newton Aylcliffe would still be completing those orders and the ones immediately after it. The UK created its own problem.

Would that mean we still have HSTs operating on front line express services? Once the decision was taken that they needed to be replaced, the timing of their replacement wasn't actually impatient.

Had Derby had a better product for TfL rather than Siemens becoming the partner for TfL on its new train concept, Derby would have a healthy order book. One factory can't win all the competitive tenders, yet there isn't work for multiple factories.

 

[Peter Sarf]

Would that mean we still have HSTs operating on front line express services? Once the decision was taken that they needed to be replaced, the timing of their replacement wasn't actually impatient.

Had Derby had a better product for TfL rather than Siemens becoming the partner for TfL on its new train concept, Derby would have a healthy order book. One factory can't win all the competitive tenders, yet there isn't work for multiple factories.

I think for HST replacement there is an argument that we should ave been starting the replacement earlier instead of seeming to do it at the last minute and in a hurry. But that the last HSTs would still be in frontline service now. Perhaps if we had done HST replacement slower over a longer period of time we might have seen the problems (cracking etc in IETs) earlier and hesitated to commit so much to one product. We ordered a lot of IETs before seeing what the product was really like. Fools rush in.

Then again it might have been necessary to offer a big enough order so as to make it worth Hitachi's while designing the IET. Britain really is the odd one out due to its loading gauge and we have to factor that into our expectations.

It is true TfL has moved a long way from Metro Cammell via Derby Works to Siemens. Lets see what the Siemens product actually ends up being like.

I do think that right now the possibility of keeping Derby going would be at the expense of another UK factory so that is pointless.

In the UK we really need to smooth out the peaks and troughs in demand for new trains. That would give us more time to see a new product go through teething problems before massive orders.

How many factories would we need in the UK to keep a steady trickle of new trains going for ever - I mean via competitive tenders. Answer is not four maybe only two.

I certainly do not want to see Derby propped up just for the sake of it. The UK spent a lot of money and decades keeping British Leyland going when there were viable alternatives not receiving support. But unlike new cars demand has been irregular for new trains.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Probably caused by making promises to build too much too quickly. Iirc Siemens declined to bid for the Elizabeth line stock as they felt they could not meet the timescale.
Yes we indicated no more DMUs wanted and then changed our minds to the extent that CAF were prepared to design DMUs for the UK loading guage and then even open a factory in the UK. Stalling electrification is doing us harm.

Arguably, winning the Aventra orders has turned out poorly for Derby.
They were nursed along initially by DfT with Electrostar (387) and then multiple Aventra orders after Hitachi got the IEPs and Siemens the 700s.
That kept them very busy for 5 years or so, but now we have the inevitable cliff-edge.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

I agree there is the possibility we are throwing good money after bad but we have little choice.

The reliablity of 345s might be bad but it is not all down to the 345s themselves. Very complex so a competing product would risk being be up against the same challenges.

No one is going to quote competitively for just five trains that have to suit the same environment as the 345s have to suit. Furthermore TfL will not want a microfleet.

Waiting to fix what may or may not be within Alstoms remit to fix guarantees there wil be no more 345s.

If TfL genuinely need those few more trains then it makes absolute sense to order them as the base mechanical and electrical train is reliable its making the trains too complex, not just the signalling, which is killing reliability compared to earlier classes. Mind you when I travel past Old Oak or Ilford there are plenty of 345's in the sidings yes some on mtce but they should be in the sheds so i do wonder whether the extra trains is driven by poor availability.

It is plain to see to me that the UK's headlong rush to replace intercity trains with IETs resulted in supply having to be supplemented by assembly outside the UK. I feared this would happen at the time. Had we been more patient then Newton Aylcliffe would still be completing those orders and the ones immediately after it. The UK created its own problem.

Where good at that

Anyway there are too many train factories in the UK and something has to go.

Sadly yes and its Alstom im afraid as in any sane world of the past the IET would be the train for IC and long distance regional routes. CAF would have had the plain diesel replacements at Stadler have the BiModes (Diesel or Battery). ie we have ready made solutions for all immediate needs that are type approved. Not mentioned EMUs as we have approaching 100 surplus units available now or soon. Of course the fault line here is whether more electrification is coming and the next government along with the industry need to quickly work out policy there. As someone who worked on all the major AC & DC electrifications from 85-93 im an advocate but the price now is still so far adrift that i now believe a 755 with a battery pack makes sense for all routes with extensive under the wires running.

Derby is saddled with the reputation Aventra has. Probably caused by making promises to build too much too quickly. Iirc Siemens declined to bid for the Elizabeth line stock as they felt they could not meet the timescale.

Yes we indicated no more DMUs wanted and then changed our minds to the extent that CAF were prepared to design DMUs for the UK loading guage and then even open a factory in the UK. Stalling electrification is doing us harm.

 

[TomH1994]

When are the class 730 orders expected to be finished then? Are they built at derby?

 

[Gag Halfrunt]

Iirc Siemens declined to bid for the Elizabeth line stock as they felt they could not meet the timescale.

IIRC Siemens were allegedly persuaded to step aside so that the trains would be built in the UK.

 

[dgl]

I believe that First had picked Siemens for a HST replacement but the whole IET process and electrification happened.

As with other posters there is no reason propping up Derby if the output continues to be dire if there are better manufacturers assembling trains in Britain, plus Siemens trains already had a lot of British parts so really th3 manufacturing location was less relevant.

 

[Wolfie]

I think for HST replacement there is an argument that we should ave been starting the replacement earlier instead of seeming to do it at the last minute and in a hurry. But that the last HSTs would still be in frontline service now. Perhaps if we had done HST replacement slower over a longer period of time we might have seen the problems (cracking etc in IETs) earlier and hesitated to commit so much to one product. We ordered a lot of IETs before seeing what the product was really like. Fools rush in.

Then again it might have been necessary to offer a big enough order so as to make it worth Hitachi's while designing the IET. Britain really is the odd one out due to its loading gauge and we have to factor that into our expectations.

It is true TfL has moved a long way from Metro Cammell via Derby Works to Siemens. Lets see what the Siemens product actually ends up being like.

I do think that right now the possibility of keeping Derby going would be at the expense of another UK factory so that is pointless.

In the UK we really need to smooth out the peaks and troughs in demand for new trains. That would give us more time to see a new product go through teething problems before massive orders.

How many factories would we need in the UK to keep a steady trickle of new trains going for ever - I mean via competitive tenders. Answer is not four maybe only two.

I certainly do not want to see Derby propped up just for the sake of it. The UK spent a lot of money and decades keeping British Leyland going when there were viable alternatives not receiving support. But unlike new cars demand has been irregular for new trains.

I agree with your last para. It's just sad that taxpayer money was used to open the rival facilities that could kill Derby. That is no more appropriate.