Potential up to 2,000 job losses at Alstom Derby

[Invincible]

I can read it and I'm not a subscriber.
Another Telegraph article was mentioned in another thread a day or two ago and I could read that too.
But I don't try very often - these two are the first I've tried in ages.

I've noticed some news and magazine sites allow a number of free visits before asking you to sign up for a free subscription trial (in the hope you will remain a subscriber).

The normally Tory supporting press seems to be questioning the current Government policies.

 

[Speed43125]

Interesting interview here:

Notable points mentioned include the potential for the Irish X'trapolis order to have been built at Derby in return for a UK 'baseload', if it had been committed about 6 or 7 months ago.

 

[HSTEd]

Interesting interview here:

Notable points mentioned include the potential for the Irish X'trapolis order to have been built at Derby in return for a UK 'baseload', if it has been committed about 6 or 7 months ago.

The Xtrapolis order is apparently only about a hundred vehicles, so its not going to prolong the life of the site for long, even if it contains hundreds more options.

And the maximum potential 500-600 vehicles over ten years is also a miniscule order in terms of keeping a plant on the scale of Derby open.

 

[JonathanH]

Notable points mentioned include the potential for the Irish X'trapolis order to have been built at Derby in return for a UK 'baseload', if it has been committed about 6 or 7 months ago.

In a free market, you can't have a UK baseload. What if Derby isn't offering the best product?

While it is absolutely true that a small premium for UK build should be seen as reasonable when costs are being considered, since wealth maintained in the UK economy is better than spending money on imports, it requires there to be an agreement on what those extra costs are.

There isn't a baseload for UK rolling stock manufacturing in any case because that would mean building slower and less than the factories can produce.

 

[HSTEd]

There isn't a baseload for UK rolling stock manufacturing in any case because that would mean building slower and less than the factories can produce.

As you (indirectly) point out, the only way to get a 'baseload' of production would be to select one factory to do it and abandon the free market model entirely.

 

[JonathanH]

As you (indirectly) point out, the only way to get a 'baseload' of production would be to select one factory to do it and abandon the free market model entirely.

Clearly one reason not to do that is that the procurement body would have to tender that process, rather than just awarding a, say, ten year contract to build all rolling stock to Derby, complete with sourcing of parts from around the world.

 

[Nym]

Or award a large framework contract for stock. But that would mean joined up rolling stock procurement which this country simply does not do

 

[HSTEd]

Clearly one reason not to do that is that the procurement body would have to tender that process, rather than just awarding a, say, ten year contract to build all rolling stock to Derby, complete with sourcing of parts from around the world.

Well it only has to tender if it is tendering. If it just bought up the complex and declared it to be an integral part of the government rail apparatus then no tendering would be required.

But as I said, that would require a fundamental change in the nature of the industry.

 

[JonathanH]

Well it only has to tender if it is tendering. If it just bought up the complex and declared it to be an integral part of the government rail apparatus then no tendering would be required.

If the government just nationalises Derby, that is somewhat different to awarding Alstom a long term exclusivity contract, and also highly unlikely.

 

[Invincible]

Or award a large framework contract for stock. But that would mean joined up rolling stock procurement which this country simply does not do

Not since 1997!

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Not since 1997!

Well, arguably more like 1989 when BREL was sold to the ABB consortium.
Since then there has been increasing competition for orders from a wider supply chain.
For most of its life BR saw to it that there was not a monopoly supply situation, placing orders with private industry notably the GEC group.
Ironically, the GEC arm was absorbed into (old) Alstom before it acquired Bombardier and with it the Derby works.

 

[Trainbike46]

The Xtrapolis order is apparently only about a hundred vehicles, so its not going to prolong the life of the site for long, even if it contains hundreds more options.

And the maximum potential 500-600 vehicles over ten years is also a miniscule order in terms of keeping a plant on the scale of Derby open.

If I was being cynical, I would point out that for the Conservatives it only needs to extend the life by about 1 year, as it will then be Labour's problem, not theirs

For the factory, if it is enough to keep running until the HS2 order starts building, that would keep the factory open until that is finished

 

[YorkRailFan]

For the factory, if it is enough to keep running until the HS2 order starts building, that would keep the factory open until that is finished

I thought that the HS2 trains were having their bogies being built in Crewe.

 

[Chester1]

If I was being cynical, I would point out that for the Conservatives it only needs to extend the life by about 1 year, as it will then be Labour's problem, not theirs

For the factory, if it is enough to keep running until the HS2 order starts building, that would keep the factory open until that is finished

Litchurch Lane was completing about three vehicles per two days during peak of Crossrail production, with six production lines at full capacity. On that basis one production line would take 440 days to complete 10 x 11 coach sets for Crossrail. That would be long enough to make it not the Tories problem.

Informed members should feel free to correct my very rough calculation!

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

An order for 10x345s made today would not necessarily save the plant.
The supply chain would have to grind back into production before Derby could start work, and we know some of the Aventra suppliers have closed.
Any other train design would have to go to open tender.

 

[Speed43125]

Litchurch Lane was completing about three vehicles per two days during peak of Crossrail production, with six production lines at full capacity. On that basis one production line would take 440 days to complete 10 x 11 coach sets for Crossrail. That would be long enough to make it not the Tories problem.

Informed members should feel free to correct my very rough calculation!

The MD suggested - in the Green Signals interview I've linked above - that going forwards it would (have) been scaled back to '3 or 4' production lines instead.

Class 345s are 9 Car sets, 11 car passive provision has been made in the core section station boxes, but none of the other surrounding infrastructure is able to accommodate them.

 

[800001]

I have a cheap online subscription through 02 rewards, but as a paper it is read by several influencing people.
Gives a good overview, concluding with
"Losing Alstom’s Litchurch Lane site would make Britain the only nation in the G7 without a combined train design and manufacturing capability. Nearly 200 years after first leaving the station, the end of the line for the industry is in sight."

Does look like Sunak's preferred "cost and time effective" transport is a RAF helicopter

Rishi Sunak ‘personally intervened to save his RAF helicopter trips’

Government U-turn at PM’s request prompted ‘frenetic’ scramble, air force reveals

www.independent.co.uk

"Figures show Mr Sunak has taken a taxpayer-funded private flight for travel in the UK once every eight days since he secured the keys to No 10."
"The decision followed criticism over his use of the aircraft for short trips, including flying from London to Southampton, a journey that would have taken an hour and 15 minutes by train and cost £30 return."

With subsidised buses for those without access to helicopter or cars. For some reason, unlike previous PMs Sunak does not seem to like trains?.

Sunak travels by train at least 2 times a week, it’s just people do not see him, or report him travelling. As usually he is segregated from other passengers.

An order for 10x345s made today would not necessarily save the plant.
The supply chain would have to grind back into production before Derby could start work, and we know some of the Aventra suppliers have closed.
Any other train design would have to go to open tender.

Just seen a tweet with a link to an online news story (can’t find it I will post if find it), stating that a order for ‘just 10’ trains will help secure the future of the factory until the time the HS2 order starts. That comes from the MD.

 

[PG]

Sunak travels by train at least 2 times a week, it’s just people do not see him, or report him travelling. As usually he is segregated from other passengers.

You're just over a week late with that one

 

[800001]

You're just over a week late with that one

Well seeing as the comment I replied to was from this morning, I disagree.
But thank you for your input.

 

[HSTEd]

Litchurch Lane was completing about three vehicles per two days during peak of Crossrail production, with six production lines at full capacity. On that basis one production line would take 440 days to complete 10 x 11 coach sets for Crossrail. That would be long enough to make it not the Tories problem.

Informed members should feel free to correct my very rough calculation!

If you go from six lines to one you would end up with thousands of job losses and it would still be the Government of the day's problem.

 

[Chester1]

The MD suggested - in the Green Signals interview I've linked above - that going forwards it would (have) been scaled back to '3 or 4' production lines instead.

Class 345s are 9 Car sets, 11 car passive provision has been made in the core section station boxes, but none of the other surrounding infrastructure is able to accommodate them.

90 vehicles would be about 360 days work for one production line. That is enough to push closure back until after the election but not enough until HS2 arrives unless Alstom are holding back on other potential work.

Just seen a tweet with a link to an online news story (can’t find it I will post if find it), stating that a order for ‘just 10’ trains will help secure the future of the factory until the time the HS2 order starts. That comes from the MD.

If 10 units were enough to keep the factory going until HS2 contract starts I am sure the government would have signed on the dotted line in an election year. "Help to secure" is different to secure.

If you go from six lines to one you would end up with thousands of job losses and it would still be the Government of the day's problem.

One production line would avoid being responsible for a final closure decision. I think it would just be delaying the inevitable.

 

[Trainbike46]

I thought that the HS2 trains were having their bogies being built in Crewe.

If I understand it correctly, HS2 train work was to be split across Crewe (Bogies), Newton Aycliffe and Derby

 

[Russel]

I read the article that quoted the MD of Litchurch Lane as stating an order of 10 345 units would keep the plant going until the HS2 order was started...

These trains are going to be needed in future anyway and postponing the order would only lead to buying them at a higher price in a couple of years, yet, it seems we have a government that, if their track record is anything to go by, would rather take the postpone a couple of years and let the factory close option simply out of spite.

 

[YorkRailFan]

If I understand it correctly, HS2 train work was to be split across Crewe (Bogies), Newton Aycliffe and Derby

Due to start rolling off the production line around 2027, the eight carriage trains measuring 200 metres in length, will be manufactured across three UK factories. Hitachi’s Co Durham plant will handle vehicle body assembly and initial fit-out before transferring further fit-out and testing work to Alstom’s historic Derby works.

Trains - HS2

www.hs2.org.uk

Found that on HS2's website, doesn't mention Crewe however.

 

[Trainman40083]

I read the article that quoted the MD of Litchurch Lane as stating an order of 10 345 units would keep the plant going until the HS2 order was started...

These trains are going to be needed in future anyway and postponing the order would only lead to buying them at a higher price in a couple of years, yet, it seems we have a government that, if their track record is anything to go by, would rather take the postpone a couple of years and let the factory close option simply out of spite.

Could see Alstom and Government arguing about the price. If the option had been exercised whilst the main build had been going on, it might have saved a few bob

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Could see Alstom and Government arguing about the price. If the option had been exercised whilst the main build had been going on, it might have saved a few bob

There might well have been priced options, and inflation clauses, in the original TfL contract (not directly with DfT) in 2014.
But if those have expired, which is very likely, there would have to be new terms agreed.
At the same time, Alstom will be subject to performance and warranty terms on the existing fleet which might have a bearing on price.
The other Aventra TOCs will also need continuing support for their fleets.

If Wiki is correct, the original Crossrail order was for 65 trains with options for 18 more.
Five trains were added to the order in 2018 leaving 13 options, but no doubt with time/price limitations.

 

[Trainman40083]

There might well have been priced options, and inflation clauses, in the original TfL contract (not directly with DfT) in 2014.
But if those have expired, which is very likely, there would have to be new terms agreed.
At the same time, Alstom will be subject to performance and warranty terms on the existing fleet which might have a bearing on price.
The other Aventra TOCs will also need continuing support for their fleets.

If Wiki is correct, the original Crossrail order was for 65 trains with options for 18 more.
Five trains were added to the order in 2018 leaving 13 options, but no doubt with time/price limitations.

One wonders if the same situation will arise when Hitachi runs out of work, or CAF etc.

 

[Bornin1980s]

Has any other country ever gone from building literally all its railway carriages to importing them all?

 

[Trainbike46]

Has any other country ever gone from building literally all its railway carriages to importing them all?

The Netherlands used to build its own carriages etc. at Werkspoor Utrecht, but now has no train manufacture at all, so everything is imported

 

[Invincible]

Trains - HS2

www.hs2.org.uk

Found that on HS2's website, doesn't mention Crewe however.

In pursuit of speed

www.imeche.org

A history of the Bombardier Zefiro (on which the HS2 train is based) on says the bogies were designed in Derby but made in Italy or China.
HS1 was based on the Hitachi A train made in Japan, then Hitachi brought the Zefiro platform from Alstom, but they made a joint bid for HS2.
Guess if all the UK factories close, the production line in China could do HS2?, but hope a way forward for UK production can be found.