Prediction: Do you think 2021 will be better or worse than 2020?

[PTR 444]

This year has not gone well for pretty much anyone, so it is natural to wonder whether the next year will be any better, or just more of the same misery. We have a vaccine now so you would like to think that we could get back to some sort of normality in the spring, but what if the roll out does not go to plan and we’re stuck in this mess for another 9 months? At least the US will no longer have Trump as its president so we can hope for a speedier recovery over there, as well as the country’s return to the Paris Climate agreement. Even so, we have the biggest elephant in the room, Brexit. It is looking more and more likely that we will leave with no deal, and that with rising food prices it will bring, this will only rub salt into the wound of an already trashed economy.

So those are just a mixture of good and bad things to expect in 2021. Do you think it will be any better or worse?

 

[birchesgreen]

I think for a lot of people 2021 will be worse, for a gilded few it will be an excellent year.

 

[Chester1]

This year has not gone well for pretty much anyone, so it is natural to wonder whether the next year will be any better, or just more of the same misery. We have a vaccine now so you would like to think that we could get back to some sort of normality in the spring, but what if the roll out does not go to plan and we’re stuck in this mess for another 9 months? At least the US will no longer have Trump as its president so we can hope for a speedier recovery over there, as well as the country’s return to the Paris Climate agreement. Even so, we have the biggest elephant in the room, Brexit. It is looking more and more likely that we will leave with no deal, and that with rising food prices it will bring, this will only rub salt into the wound of an already trashed economy.

So those are just a mixture of good and bad things to expect in 2021. Do you think it will be any better or worse?

I had a good 2020. I know that is extremely fortunate in the circumstances.

For the vast majority of people next year will be better. The OBR predicts 3% economic growth under no deal and 5% if there is a deal. Either way the economy will be better next year. The effect of vaccine roll outs should provide a massive economic and societal boost. 2021 won't be as a good a year as 2019 but it should almost certainly be than 2020 for the vast majority of people.

 

[DB]

I think for a lot of people 2021 will be worse, for a gilded few it will be an excellent year.

I expect some disaster capitalists will manage to do well out of the whole Brexit and Covid-related mess...

 

[Journeyman]

I had a good 2020. I know that is extremely fortunate in the circumstances.

For the vast majority of people next year will be better. The OBR predicts 3% economic growth under no deal and 5% if there is a deal. Either way the economy will be better next year. The effect of vaccine roll outs should provide a massive economic and societal boost. 2021 won't be as a good a year as 2019 but it should almost certainly be than 2020 for the vast majority of people.

What would it have been if we were still in the customs union and single market, like all the Brexiteers told us we would be?

2021 is going to be pretty lousy for the owners and staff at our village pub, who invested a fortune in refurbishing it last year, and today announced they'll be closing at the end of the year, because they've lost so much money.

 

[C J Snarzell]

2021 will be a mixed bag - good & bad.

Good that we should see most restrictions lifted by around the spring & summer once the vaccine has been rolled out for several months. Hopefully, we will see the back on the Tiers and possibly social distancing, but I do suspect some measures to remain long term, such as the face mask policy.

The bad aspect is the economical gloom - the government cannot really start addressing the recession until the virus itself is finally brought under control. I'm predicting more businesses will go to the wall and unemployment rates will continue to rise to levels beyond those of the early 1980s.

Give or take - 2021 will be a slightly better year than 2020 but its not going to be like the ending of the Wizard of Oz.

CJ

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Since the last nine months of 2020 have seen life changed in so many respects, with long and short lockdown periods on in the north, being under strictures for far longer that in other areas, we cannot dare hazard a guess as to how 2021 will fare, as it is only in the last month of 2020 that the first of the vaccines have received full acceptance and whilst December 2020 will see the most immediate cases being inoculated, it is said that some early months of 2021 will pass before a fuller inoculation programme can be rolled out.

My own personal view, for what it is worth, will be to wait and see what the year 2022 brings forth.

 

[C J Snarzell]

To keep the whole country under the Tier system until mid or late 2021 under tight restrictions would be catastrophic for people's mental health, livelihoods and social wellbeing.

I suspect key government figures are aware of the damage it is doing and to be frank the longer it continues - more & more people are not going to comply.

I'm predicting the first anniversary of all of this chaos in late March 2021 will be a significant milestone with restrictions loosened in quite a few areas.

CJ

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I suspect key government figures are aware of the damage it is doing and to be frank the longer it continues - more & more people are not going to comply.
CJ

But if the said non-compliance brings forth the possibility of a rise in the death toll, then it will be no-ones fault but the non-compliees.

Who can say at this early stage, noting the pandemic is world-wide, how long the various viral strains will still pose danger to people.

 

[DB]

But if the said non-compliance brings forth the possibility of a rise in the death toll, then it will be no-ones fault but the non-compliees.

Who can say at this early stage, noting the pandemic is world-wide, how long the various viral strains will still pose danger to people.

How did we get to the stage where a virus spreading is someone's 'fault' - viruses spread, that's what they have evolved to do and are going to do: at most, measures might slow it down a bit. Death tolls will rise, because its the time of year when respiratory viruses spread most easily. The measures taken to 'beat the virus' are causing more problems than the virus itself, and aren't even working (it's still running through care homes).

It will always pose some risk, like flu does, but with an increasing level of natural immunity and potentially vaccines reducing its ability to spread, it will reduce to background levels.

 

[Journeyman]

But if the said non-compliance brings forth the possibility of a rise in the death toll, then it will be no-ones fault but the non-compliees.

Who can say at this early stage, noting the pandemic is world-wide, how long the various viral strains will still pose danger to people.

Yeah - I'm actually quite relieved there's a possibility of the Christmas rule relaxations being tightened up. Given how close we are to mass vaccination, it would be insane to see cases go through the roof when, hopefully, only one Christmas will be affected.

I suspect it will be possible to ease restrictions domestically fairly soon, but I wouldn't be surprised if quarantine, getting tested and needing proof of vaccination will be requirements for foreign travel for some time.

 

[alex397]

I do often try to stay positive about life, but I dread to think what 2021 will be like. That’s for both the country in general, and also my personal life. My only hope is that it won’t be as bad as some are predicting (and I do think some are overly-negative with their predicting).

I’d be feeling a bit better if we didn’t have both Covid and Brexit to deal with. If we had just Covid alone, I’d be feeling more optimistic as we now have the vaccine, and businesses might be hoping for normality as the vaccine becomes common. Adding Brexit on top of this is far too overwhelming and too much for the economy to cope with.

 

[southern442]

Economics wise, it's probably looking pretty grim.

However, I think that by virtue of the fact that we are making progress in the fight against Covid which has dominated everyone's lives in 2020, people will start the year off being very optimistic, and even if that eventually passes, there will be more of a feelgood factor next year.

 

[C J Snarzell]

The poor folks in Wales will have a very grim start to 2021 from watching tonight's news.

CJ