Proposal to rebuild the line to Ballater

[Wynd]

Please point me to the literature showing the Borders Railway cost £400m.

 

[Bald Rick]

The Borders railway cost what, £300m for 35 miles of line, so may someone explain to me, in detail please, how it can be that numbers of £40m a mile are being bandied about just a few years after that projects completion?

How can we be talking about a 400% inflation in cost in a few short years?

I have just won a bet that this would come up. It does on most similar threads.

Firstly, the Borders railway didn’t cost £300m. That was the headline figure used for the construction element, but there were lots of other costs too. (Feasibility, development, all the costs for getting the Act, land purchase, etc). All told, it was over £400m.

Secondly, it was 30 miles.

Thirdly, the land had been protected from development for some time, so was relatively easy to secure. This is not the case for most other proposed lines, including Deeside.

Finally whilst the line opened in September 2015 (I was there), the bulk of the money had been spent across the previous 4 years. The mid point spend for inflation purposes is 2013. The midpoint spend for inflation purposes for a new proposal now will be around 2026 at best: 2 years feasibility / development, 2 years for the consents, 3 years for construction (and this is pushing it).

So, take the (approx) £13.5m a mile that Borders cost, add in 13 years construction inflation at a compound 3%pa compound, (47%), and you get to the £20m start point I quoted. That’s for a knock down basic scheme, assuming all land on the line of route is protected, no difficult arguments through the consents process, and a rapid & straightforward design / development process.

 

[Wynd]

Seem pretty inevitable that this topic would get on to cost at some point, who was daft enough to take the opposing bet? What did you win?

Does a document exist anywhere that we can point to that captures the full cost of the Borders line?

The Deeside line is already protected from development and has been for some time. As is the F&B.

My understanding is Aberdeenshire Council have a protection for these lines in place as it stands. Do you have evidence to the contrary?

 

[LSWR Cavalier]

Surely it could be restored as a light railway for much less money.

 

[snakeeyes]

From a local (Aberdeen) Facebook page, there was outrage a few days ago when the reopening proposal was mentioned.
The Deeside line is an exceptionally busy walking and cycling route, not sure if Peterculter to Duthie Park could be shared ?

 

[Llandudno]

Surely it could be restored as a light railway for much less money.

In pre Covid times I was amazed at how frequent (half hourly) the Stagecoach buses were on this route, with many buses from Aberdeen running beyond Ballater to Braemar.

The buses ran 7 days a week until after midnight!

You can look at this two ways I suppose:
There must be decent demand so a railway line would be well used
Or alternatively
The commercially operated bus service is so good, there is no need to spend public money on building a railway line!

 

[Bald Rick]

Seem pretty inevitable that this topic would get on to cost at some point, who was daft enough to take the opposing bet?

My bet was rather more specific, in that someone would say “the Borders line was only £300m for 30 odd miles, why is this so expensive”.

It’s a fair question of course. But I hope I’ve answered it already. If you didn’t like that answer then find out how much it is going to cost to reopen the 5 1/2 miles of the Leven branch - which is already there, with no development in the way, and no need for a difficult and expensive consents process.

Does a document exist anywhere that we can point to that captures the full cost of the Borders line?

Possibly, but not that I’ve seen where it is all in one place.

The Deeside line is already protected from development and has been for some time.

Well if it is / has, it isn’t very effective. Otherwise it would have stopped all the residential property being built on the formation in: Aberdeen, Peterculter, Drumoak, Crathes, Banchory, East Mains, near Glassel, Torphins, Lumphanan, Aboyne and Ballater ... and the Deeside activity park and Deeside Brewery.

My understanding is Aberdeenshire Council have a protection for these lines in place as it stands. Do you have evidence to the contrary?

As a regular student of Local Plans (yes I should get out more), its rare to find one that makes a specific statement not to safeguard a potential transport corridor. Either it’s a corridor that is needed and thus safeguarded, or it isn’t and therefore not mentioned.

Nevertheless, neither the Aberdeenshire nor Aberdeen City Council Local Development Plan safeguard any part of the route specifically for reinstatement of the railway. They do both identify parts of the line as being a strategic cycleway / footpath, which is a rather different type of protection. This means they can’t be built on for any reason, including a railway. Of course that protection could be changed through amending those provisions (following consultation) and adopting them, or of course through primary legislation - which would be needed anyway. But as written now the plans effectively prevent the use of those parts that are cycleway / footpath from being turned into a railway; and those parts of the line that aren’t cycleway / footpath are not safeguarded. That’s my reading of it anyway - if there’s evidence to the contrary I’ll happily stand corrected.


For the record I’m not trying to put obstacles in the way of this, I’m just pointing out the realities!

 

[Clansman]

In pre Covid times I was amazed at how frequent (half hourly) the Stagecoach buses were on this route, with many buses from Aberdeen running beyond Ballater to Braemar.

The buses ran 7 days a week until after midnight!

You can look at this two ways I suppose:
There must be decent demand so a railway line would be well used
Or alternatively
The commercially operated bus service is so good, there is no need to spend public money on building a railway line!

That is Aberdeen and its surrounding areas in a nutshell.

 

[6Gman]

Wikipedia tells me that the population of Ballater is around 1,500.

1,500.

Is that (broadly) correct?

 

[HSTEd]

Wikipedia tells me that the population of Ballater is around 1,500.

1,500.

Is that (broadly) correct?

If Climate change causes much colder winters in the Cairngorms you might be able to make a case based on developing ski resorts in the upper dee valley, but without that I don't think you've got any chance at all.

 

[Bald Rick]

Wikipedia tells me that the population of Ballater is around 1,500.

1,500.

Is that (broadly) correct?

That will be about right - it occupies that awkward size to describe: bigger than a village but smaller than a town. Population swells in the summer though - perhaps as much as doubles. Couple of pubs, a few restaurants (mostly excellent), couple of cafes, a wonderful ice cream shop, a Co-op, a few hotels, a petrol station etc. If you see a black Range Rover outside any of these, expect to see the Royal Protection Squad.

 

[Journeyman]

The Borders railway cost what, £300m for 35 miles of line, so may someone explain to me, in detail please, how it can be that numbers of £40m a mile are being bandied about just a few years after that projects completion?

How can we be talking about a 400% inflation in cost in a few short years?

The Borders Railway trackbed was largely intact, as were a number of major structures, so there wasn't much need to get around obstructions and obstacles, with one or two exceptions, like the new alignment around Shawfair.

Wikipedia tells me that the population of Ballater is around 1,500.

1,500.

Is that (broadly) correct?

In which case, forget it.

 

[Bevan Price]

Banchory, 16 miles from Aberdeen, was the largest town along the route to Ballater, with 7500 population. .
On the next 27 miles to Ballater (pop.1500), there were Aboyne (2900), Lumphanan & Torphins (each about 1500), and some small villages or settlements.

If Banchory was a bit bigger, it might just be able to support a railway to Aberdeen, but I see little prospect of ever being able to justify restoration of the 27 miles between Banchory & Ballater, not even allowing for potential tourist traffic and maybe a royal train to Ballater once or twice a year.

 

[Dr Hoo]

Mallaig has a population of less than 1,000 I believe. So Ballater is bigger. Settlements en route from Aberdeen generally bigger. too.

 

[Bevan Price]

Mallaig has a population of less than 1,000 I believe. So Ballater is bigger. Settlements en route from Aberdeen generally bigger. too.

Mallaig survived Beeching/Marples. If it had closed, it is doubtful that it would now be considered viable to restore a railway.

 

[Journeyman]

Mallaig survived Beeching/Marples. If it had closed, it is doubtful that it would now be considered viable to restore a railway.

Absolutely, that's the big difference. It costs less to subsidise the operation of a surviving railway than it does to put back an extinct one - and then subsidise it.

 

[AlastairFraser]

Banchory, 16 miles from Aberdeen, was the largest town along the route to Ballater, with 7500 population. .
On the next 27 miles to Ballater (pop.1500), there were Aboyne (2900), Lumphanan & Torphins (each about 1500), and some small villages or settlements.

If Banchory was a bit bigger, it might just be able to support a railway to Aberdeen, but I see little prospect of ever being able to justify restoration of the 27 miles between Banchory & Ballater, not even allowing for potential tourist traffic and maybe a royal train to Ballater once or twice a year.

This is what I think would end up being a proposal. Restoration as light rail standards (perhaps Class 230 as stock) out to Banchory, bus interchange for further out, P and R at Peterculter/Milltimber next to the Aberdeen Western Bypass.
Alignment mostly preserved, decent population along the route, residents in Westhill may drive down to Milltimber over Dyce if the service was quick and frequent enough (e.g. every 30 mins shuttle in each direction out to Banchory Mon - Sat daytime, rest of time hourly). Potentially, Porthlethen/Cove Bay traffic may choose to use the P and R, given the traffic and parking issues in Aberdeen if the fares were reasonable.
However, I think a reopening of the old Formartine and Buchan Railway (Dyce - Newmachar - Ellon - Peterhead/Fraserburgh). It's 57 miles of line, a bit longer, but there's easily 50k population in the towns, plus at least 25k in the surrounding rural areas. Alignment pretty much entirely preserved, industry in Ellon, Peterhead and Fraserburgh, so potential for freight services, and decent golf courses for tourist potential. You could run one DMU (maybe Class 156, as they are being released from Barrhead/East Kilbride duties in the not-too-distant future) to Peterhead and Fraserburgh each per hour, meaning a half hourly frequency to Maud (where the lines diverge) including Ellon.

 

[30907]

Banchory seems more within the bounds of possibility, though Peterhead would seem to be a better bet - didn't we have a thread not so long ago?

 

[AlastairFraser]

Banchory seems more within the bounds of possibility, though Peterhead would seem to be a better bet - didn't we have a thread not so long ago?

Yep, what I thought. Here's the thread: https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/could-the-formartine-and-buchan-line-be-reopened.212292/

 

[Wynd]

Now we are getting somewhere, I wondered when this would be suggested. This is the proposal that I have made reference to already.

So, pick...sorry, scrutinize a joined up proposal to have a cross rail type service between Banchory and Peterhead Fraserburgh.

F&B would be on new alignments north of Ellon, per thread already referenced and would start initially at Banchory.

 

[yoyothehobo]

If we are being honest, having an intact route alignment saves you as much costs as buying a car and already having the wheels, but the wheels are from 1960.

The whole route would have to be checked for embankment stability and with the wetter winters we will be getting through climate change, the more conservative any engineering solutions will be.

It seems like one of those places where it is best left as a cycle - walking route.

I just dont see the strength behind this idea. The populations involved are miniscule in the scheme of things and if 10% of the population of Ballater wanted to go to Aberdeen, thats 150 people. THats one train each way, per day

 

[Glenn1969]

Would it have a stronger case if it carried on to Braemar rather than stopping at Ballater? Leisure traffic as well as commuting?

 

[yoyothehobo]

Would it have a stronger case if it carried on to Braemar rather than stopping at Ballater? Leisure traffic as well as commuting?

I am not sure, most of the Cairngorm leisure traffic seems to go to Aviemore and it is a long way round to get to Braemar. May as well just go to Pitlochry and catch a bus.

Any route would be very twisty and have a low average speed.

If you were going from Perth from comparison using driving, it is 1 hour 30 direct, or 3 hours 40 via Aberdeen.

 

[Bald Rick]

Would it have a stronger case if it carried on to Braemar rather than stopping at Ballater? Leisure traffic as well as commuting?

Nope. An extra 16 miles / £400m-£500m, for a population of under 1000. Through some difficult topography, some of which is property of Her Majesty (Balmoral Estate).

And whilst there are tourists heading for Braemar (and Ballater) to stay and eat, they are (mostly) actually heading for the routes into the hills, the most popular of which are another 7 miles further on at the Linn of Dee, or 9 miles (and 1100 feet) up the A93 at Glenshee.

If you were going from Perth from comparison using driving, it is 1 hour 30 direct, or 3 hours 40 via Aberdeen.

Indeed. I’ve done Braemar to Edinburgh Waverley in 2hrs. It’s only 90 miles.

 

[ainsworth74]

And whilst there are tourists heading for Braemar (and Ballater) to stay and eat, they are (mostly) actually heading for the routes into the hills, the most popular of which are another 7 miles further on at the Linn of Dee, or 9 miles (and 1100 feet) up the A93 at Glenshee.

Well as we've already spent over a billion to get that far what's a few hundred million more to get the nine miles to Glenshee for the real walking?

 

[Bald Rick]

Well as we've already spent over a billion to get that far what's a few hundred million more to get the nine miles to Glenshee for the real walking?

Real walking in Glenshee? Pah! It’s a stroll compared to the Eastern Cairngorms!

 

[yoyothehobo]

Well as we've already spent over a billion to get that far what's a few hundred million more to get the nine miles to Glenshee for the real walking?

Well you could always have a funicular, because thats worked out so well in the Cairngorms!

 

[Wynd]

Its striking that there is a very limited understanding of the effect this would have on the surrounding communities.

 

[Journeyman]

Its striking that there is a very limited understanding of the effect this would have on the surrounding communities.

It's a very sparsely populated area, and the potential demand is tiny.

 

[Bald Rick]

Its striking that there is a very limited understanding of the effect this would have on the surrounding communities.

What surrounding communities? Balmoral?