Proposals for "Northern arc": linking north Oxfordshire (Banbury) with Northampton and Peterborough

[muddythefish]

The A43 Between Northampton, Kettering and Corby, A45 between Northampton, Wellingborough and Thrapston, A605 between Thrapston, Oundle and Peterborough. The A14 between Corby, Thrapston and Huntingdon. What do all four roads have in common, all are very busy with long distance traffic.
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Yes, can confirm the amount of traffic on these roads owing to huge population growth in the Nene valley over the past 20 years. Coupled with the shift in work from the smaller towns to the larger towns, and the roads have become extremely busy. They continue to throw money at the problems - the current waste of public funds is the Chowns Mill roundabout rebuild near Higham Ferrers - which will do nothing to alleviate congestion. The county and commuters need an alternative to the A45 / A 43 / A14 roads so the northern rail route proposal is very welcome.

 

[edwin_m]

Am I missing something? I don't seem to be seeing masses of support for anything in this study, but then I wouldn't expect to. An area 'left over' between London and the Midlands is unlikely to have a lot of call for 'internal focus'. Why did the lines close? Table 61 of my BR timetable of Summer 1964 has five trains Northampton to Peterborough, timed at 80-90 minutes. What call is there for a service sixty or more years on shown on p56 of this study with a 'Generalised Journey Time' (GJT) as 220 minutes currently. What evidence is there of how many make such a journey now, or might? I certainly find it hard to imagine thousands of pent-up demand to travel Swindon to Cambridge, Ely or Norwich. I guess a crayonist could show that Swindon- Norwich could be done in just 2 hours at 100mph. So what?
I can just about see that maybe someone could be attracted to base themselves in Bletchley or MK to have a population of 5.1 million in 'the area' as defined by 'EEH'. I fail to see how this area means anything to Swindon or Ely, or any of the other 'key nodes' let alone Towcester or Faringdon or Thrapston.
Even East-West rail seems to be taking an age, so I'm not holding my breath, other than to gasp at the expenditure on this vanity 'study' when revealed.

Certainly these services were likely to be used at a time when people had no alternative. At those frequencies the lines were toast as soon as there was significant car and bus competition - and of course in the 50s and 60s the roads were pretty uncongested. I don't think in itself that says anything about today's situation when much of the South East and South Midlands is quite densely populated and this generates enough car traffic for congestion to be a problem on urban and some interurban roads. And any new rail route would have to have at least a couple of trains per hour otherwise it wouldn't be worth building it. So that should be the benchmark to determine how attractive these routes might be, not what they looked like before closure.

 

[squizzler]

England's Economic Heartland is the lovechild of the Stop HS2 Coalition and the E-W Rail Consortium. This gives two reasons why it doesn't talk about released capacity - it institutionally doesn't like HS2 (it does talk about access to it, mostly to point out how HS2 is pretty useless for most of the region to directly use) and is institutionally keen on E-W links.

Whatever the motive, the desired outcome, reconfiguring the legacy lines into a network allowing connectivity east-west as well as north-south is something I wholeheartedly agree with. And whatever they say about being a counterweight to HS2, there would not be much point in building linkages if the congestion on the old trunk lines prevent trains from being able to use it as a network.

The management of the legacy trunklines as sections of the east-west routes is something that is outside my expertise as an amateur railway scholar, but the beauty of a scheme that intelligently adds linkages is that the same section of line can form part of a north-south and east-west route at the same time. You will also be wanting Swiss style timed interconnections to get the full value. Essentially the whole thing has to be built incrementally with a completed system in mind, and trying to do that with intercity services on all the legacy trunklines would make it much harder.

The A43 Between Northampton, Kettering and Corby, A45 between Northampton, Wellingborough and Thrapston, A605 between Thrapston, Oundle and Peterborough. The A14 between Corby, Thrapston and Huntingdon. What do all four roads have in common, all are very busy with long distance traffic.

This is why the proposal is something totally different to dewy-eyed 'reversing beeching' drivel - it envisages a fast regional network tying into long distance flows rather than an attempt to recreate local branch lines with stopping trains calling at every shack. As a matter of fact I get the impression that the East-West rail - at least the western parts that suffer from a legacy alignment - is turning out to be something of a micky-mouse operation with no electrification from the start and rather short platforms. I think it will prove quite inadequate quite soon and, like the Transpennine upgrade up north, a clean sheet route needs to be in the pipeline.

 

[squizzler]

You will also be wanting Swiss style timed interconnections to get the full value.

Having written the previous post, this is the key thing that they should consider right from the get-go. The opportunity to link the vertical and diagonal services with very short connection times at the stations should be baked in from the start. This has implications for the design of the schemes since the performance of the linkages need to be tailored to spit out the trains into the right nodes at the right times. The whole Taktfahrplan thing is really complicated, and the Swiss have been refining their network to optimise its performance as an integrated system rather than just spending up given routes since the 1980's

The benefits of timed connection clock face timetable over the Heartlands area should be obvious to a place which has never had an integrated railway network previously and IMO is the unique selling point. They should craft an integrated timetable and design the linkages to suit.

 

[sammorris]

If you wanted to do Northampton to Peterborough there are 2 better options - the old Northampton to Peterboro line or Northampton to Wellingborough and then onto Corby and a south curve at Manton Jnc.

Not advocating either and certainly don't believe they are viable.

I normally agree with the sceptics on these things - but I think the idea of a new line to Northampton is often unfairly chalked up as a pie-in-the-sky idea, possibly because people assume that Northampton is a usual-sized county town - when actually 250,000 people live there, and there's another 200,000 in the other towns in North/Central Northants (Wellingborough, Rushden, Kettering and Corby).

I agree it wouldn't be viable to connect Northampton and Peterborough at the moment, or to connect Northampton and Banbury (in fact I really don't understand, as someone who knows the area pretty well, why there would ever be more than a handful of people wanting that last link, and calling it an 'arc' doesn't change that). But the Northampton - Wellingborough part should probably be treated a bit more seriously, especially because the distance isn't very large.

You'd have local demand arising from a combined population of nearly 500,000 - including a lot of commuting because there's a mismatch between location of employment (Northampton) and location of people (Corby in particular) which currently manifests itself in heavy traffic despite the development of the road network in recent years. You'd also get the potential for longer distance Birmingham to Luton Airport services (via Northampton and Bedford), which I'd suggest would be popular, similarly to the Birmingham - Stansted services.

 

[Camden]

I think this is worth doing, but would need to be accepted that initial use may (may) be lower than desired, as it is a complete shift in rail focus. Once in place, I can well imagine office clusters being able to emerge around key stations though.

With decent interchanges for Leicester at Kettering, it potentially offers all the major towns and cities in the area realistic commuting options to multiple locations.

A short stretch of rail between Northampton and Wellingborough and reinstatement of a line between Corby and Peterborough opens up a lot of possibilities. I'd say the only draw back is the slightly off centre locations of the stations themselves.

 

[BanburyBlue]

I normally agree with the sceptics on these things - but I think the idea of a new line to Northampton is often unfairly chalked up as a pie-in-the-sky idea, possibly because people assume that Northampton is a usual-sized county town - when actually 250,000 people live there, and there's another 200,000 in the other towns in North/Central Northants (Wellingborough, Rushden, Kettering and Corby).

I agree it wouldn't be viable to connect Northampton and Peterborough at the moment, or to connect Northampton and Banbury (in fact I really don't understand, as someone who knows the area pretty well, why there would ever be more than a handful of people wanting that last link, and calling it an 'arc' doesn't change that). But the Northampton - Wellingborough part should probably be treated a bit more seriously, especially because the distance isn't very large.

You'd have local demand arising from a combined population of nearly 500,000 - including a lot of commuting because there's a mismatch between location of employment (Northampton) and location of people (Corby in particular) which currently manifests itself in heavy traffic despite the development of the road network in recent years. You'd also get the potential for longer distance Birmingham to Luton Airport services (via Northampton and Bedford), which I'd suggest would be popular, similarly to the Birmingham - Stansted services.

Interested in the Banbury to Northampton comments. Banbury is right on the Northamptonshire border, and there is a lot traffic between the two. Whether there is enough to justify a rail link is another matter of course.

 

[edwin_m]

Northampton to Wellingborough does strike me as a better route to reinstate than Northampton to Market Harborough, which doesn't pass anywhere significant on the way. Journey time Northampton to Leicester would be a bit longer but serving (directly or by connection) Wellingborough, Kettering and Corby all of which are bigger than MH, plus onward possibilities to Peterborough. I'm not sure how much of the old route is viable though - mostly on flood plain by the look of it, and with the A14 and industrial/housing development obstructing the route into Wellingborough.

 

[sammorris]

Interested in the Banbury to Northampton comments. Banbury is right on the Northamptonshire border, and there is a lot traffic between the two. Whether there is enough to justify a rail link is another matter of course.

I may be wrong but Northampton doesn't seem a place with any particular reason to go there from Banbury. Shopping and leisure facilities are more conveniently available / better in other nearby large places (e.g. Oxford, Birmingham, Bicester Village) - and likely would be even with a direct rail line - and Banbury is a fairly buoyant employment centre in itself nowadays. I'm not saying there would be no-one wanting to go there, but I'm not sure why it would get any larger a flow than, say, Banbury to Coventry does now, which wouldn't (I'd guess, I'm not an economist) on its own support a rail link.

 

[Camden]

I assume it being a bouyant employment centre is part of the point. Northampton to Banbury may not be valuable on its own, but Banbury - Northampton - Wellingborough - Kettering - Corby - Peterborough, with all the resultant connections in between creates a whole new rail commuting corridor.

 

[A0wen]

I assume it being a bouyant employment centre is part of the point. Northampton to Banbury may not be valuable on its own, but Banbury - Northampton - Wellingborough - Kettering - Corby - Peterborough, with all the resultant connections in between creates a whole new rail commuting corridor.

Except you have nowhere of significance between Banbury and Northampton - it's basically open countryside. And most of the commuting demand from Northampton is north-south, so Coventry, Birmingham or MK and London. Not that many people go east-west. Peterborough has relatively few large employers overall.

 

[A0wen]

I normally agree with the sceptics on these things - but I think the idea of a new line to Northampton is often unfairly chalked up as a pie-in-the-sky idea, possibly because people assume that Northampton is a usual-sized county town - when actually 250,000 people live there, and there's another 200,000 in the other towns in North/Central Northants (Wellingborough, Rushden, Kettering and Corby).

I agree it wouldn't be viable to connect Northampton and Peterborough at the moment, or to connect Northampton and Banbury (in fact I really don't understand, as someone who knows the area pretty well, why there would ever be more than a handful of people wanting that last link, and calling it an 'arc' doesn't change that). But the Northampton - Wellingborough part should probably be treated a bit more seriously, especially because the distance isn't very large.

You'd have local demand arising from a combined population of nearly 500,000 - including a lot of commuting because there's a mismatch between location of employment (Northampton) and location of people (Corby in particular) which currently manifests itself in heavy traffic despite the development of the road network in recent years. You'd also get the potential for longer distance Birmingham to Luton Airport services (via Northampton and Bedford), which I'd suggest would be popular, similarly to the Birmingham - Stansted services.

We're back onto demand. People in Rushden or Wellingborough are just as likely (if not more) to be heading to Milton Keynes, Leicester or London as they are to Northampton for work. That's why a Northampton rail link is pretty pointless. And before anyone says 'well it'll open MK commuting opportunities' - so will EWR and that's already in flight. If anything that *might* actually be quicker as a journey - Wellingborough - Bedford is just under 15 mins, and EWR reckon MK- Bedford will be circa 30 mins. Northampton - MK is between 15 and 20 mins (depending on a stop at Wolverton). Northampton - Wellingborough is about 12 miles so you'll be looking at 15 - 20 mins on an end to end journey (it's not a straight line) - so basically the same times. Most of Northampton's key employment locations are nowhere near the station - instead they're at Brackmills (next to A45 / A428 junction), Swan Valley (by Junc 15a of M1), Moulton Park (north side of town) or Lodge Farm (A428 heading north towards Harlestone). No large employers are in the town centre or within a mile of the station.

Corby has no shortage of jobs, nor large employers for that matter.

And Birmingham - Luton Airport services are pretty pointless. Most people in the West Mids who are looking to fly off somewhere do so from Birmingham or East Mids, not Luton or Stansted. For longer haul, they'll head to Heathrow or Manchester - but then so will many people.

And the Northants road network hasn't been "developed" in recent years at all - you still have the A43 as single carriageway from Northampton to Kettering and Corby - Stamford as well as the A605 being single carriageway from Thrapston to Peterboro. The last "development" the Northants road network saw (apart from the dumb "Smart" motorway on the M1) was either the A43 upgrade (late 90s) or the A14 (again 90s).

 

[Camden]

Isn't the premise of the idea about introducing cross line resilience, and generating economic growth and demand rather than serving existing, though?

Northampton, Corby, Wellingborough and Peterborough have quite substantial areas around the stations ripe for private development if the business incentives were right.

Peterborough's economy is arguably weaker than it should be, and is fairly isolated from its peers.

Meanwhile, someone living in Northampton can rule out working in Leicester or Bedford unless they fancy a long car drive. Same goes for Kettering and Corby to MK, where there is a bigger range of job options.

Connecting already prosperous Oxford and Cambridge to each other seems rather lame by comparison to the opening of a whole new commuting triangle of potential growth throughout. I realise there will be possibilities that EWR will bring, but in reality opening up a commuter corridor involves maximum one change (and that has to be a frequent enough service to keep the total journey time reasonable).

Some are only too happy to throw over £100bn away on HS2. Is it really beyond the pale to consider spending only hundreds of millions on a growth promoting vision such as this?

 

[sammorris]

We're back onto demand. People in Rushden or Wellingborough are just as likely (if not more) to be heading to Milton Keynes, Leicester or London as they are to Northampton for work.

These places are really quite close to Northampton, and aren't very close to Leicester or MK. I can't say for definite, but I'd be very surprised if commuting to these places outweighed Northampton.

That's why a Northampton rail link is pretty pointless. And before anyone says 'well it'll open MK commuting opportunities' - so will EWR and that's already in flight. If anything that *might* actually be quicker as a journey - Wellingborough - Bedford is just under 15 mins, and EWR reckon MK- Bedford will be circa 30 mins. Northampton - MK is between 15 and 20 mins (depending on a stop at Wolverton). Northampton - Wellingborough is about 12 miles so you'll be looking at 15 - 20 mins on an end to end journey (it's not a straight line) - so basically the same times.

I'd agree with that - when built EWR will allow someone to get from Wellingborough to MK with no particular problem.

Most of Northampton's key employment locations are nowhere near the station - instead they're at Brackmills (next to A45 / A428 junction), Swan Valley (by Junc 15a of M1), Moulton Park (north side of town) or Lodge Farm (A428 heading north towards Harlestone). No large employers are in the town centre or within a mile of the station.

This is a fair point, although it could be said about just about anywhere in the UK - but the old route at least runs right past Brackmills. I remember hearing a while ago that "the old railway" at Brackmills was going to be built over, but I'm unsure if it was the Wellingborough route or the Bedford route affected. Obviously if the route has been built over within Northampton, that's a major obstacle.

And Birmingham - Luton Airport services are pretty pointless. Most people in the West Mids who are looking to fly off somewhere do so from Birmingham or East Mids, not Luton or Stansted. For longer haul, they'll head to Heathrow or Manchester - but then so will many people.

The Stansted service does pretty well, I understand - and I suspect people will travel for the flights available at Luton, although climate change may put a brake on it at some point.

The Northants road network hasn't been "developed" in recent years at all - you still have the A43 as single carriageway from Northampton to Kettering and Corby - Stamford as well as the A605 being single carriageway from Thrapston to Peterboro. The last "development" the Northants road network saw (apart from the dumb "Smart" motorway on the M1) was either the A43 upgrade (late 90s) or the A14 (again 90s).

The point I'm trying to make is that there's really not a lot wrong with the roads in the area and they're probably above average by UK standards (however old they are), yet they're still packed into Northampton.

I'm not saying it's a definite winner, but it might well be worth a feasibility study.

 

[Camden]

Apparently £230m is a value for money spend to connect Wisbech to March, so I think this is at least worth a look!!

 

[sammorris]

Isn't the premise of the idea about introducing cross line resilience, and generating economic growth and demand rather than serving existing, though?

Northampton, Corby, Wellingborough and Peterborough have quite substantial areas around the stations ripe for private development if the business incentives were right.

The thing I'm unsure about is whether this development across the 'arc' would cause people in Peterborough/Banbury to want to travel to Northampton and vice versa. Thinking about it from the perspective of someone living in a (hypothetical) newly expanded Banbury, bursting with new jobs and new houses... why would this make me want to travel to Northampton, even if the same thing were happening there? The more likely journeys for business or leisure would still be toward London, Birmingham or Oxford.

 

[A0wen]

Isn't the premise of the idea about introducing cross line resilience, and generating economic growth and demand rather than serving existing, though?

I don't think it's about "cross line resilience" whatever tgat's supposed to be?

Northampton, Corby, Wellingborough and Peterborough have quite substantial areas around the stations ripe for private development if the business incentives were right.

Can't speak for Peterboro, but you're wrong about Wellingborough - that's already earmarked for housing. Most of Corby's old steelworks site has now been redeveloped, so any further development will be more than a mile from the station. Northampton has some, but not much.

Peterborough's economy is arguably weaker than it should be, and is fairly isolated from its peers.

Depends who you class as Peterborough's "peers".

Meanwhile, someone living in Northampton can rule out working in Leicester or Bedford unless they fancy a long car drive. Same goes for Kettering and Corby to MK, where there is a bigger range of job options..

Sorry, that's rubbish about Northampton to Bedford or Leicester - neither are "long drives" - Bedford's 20 miles, same as to MK. Leicester's further - about 40 miles, but there's a bus which takes less than an hour between Northampton and Leicester.

Connecting already prosperous Oxford and Cambridge to each other seems rather lame by comparison to the opening of a whole new commuting triangle of potential growth throughout. I realise there will be possibilities that EWR will bring, but in reality opening up a commuter corridor involves maximum one change (and that has to be a frequent enough service to keep the total journey time reasonable).

Some are only too happy to throw over £100bn away on HS2. Is it really beyond the pale to consider spending only hundreds of millions on a growth promoting vision such as this?

If you think Banbury, Northampton and Peterborough is only "hundreds of millions" you are deluded. Northampton to Banbury is about 30 miles at a going rate on heavy rail of AT LEAST £30m a mile you're looking at a minimum of £900m just to do that. That's before you talk about Wellingborough or Peterborough. And part of HS2 is about unlocking capacity on, among other things, the WCML. Anything to achieve that will cost a huge sum.

 

[A0wen]

These places are really quite close to Northampton, and aren't very close to Leicester or MK. I can't say for definite, but I'd be very surprised if commuting to these places outweighed Northampton.

Wellingborough, Rushden and Northampton are all about 20 miles from MK.

I'd agree with that - when built EWR will allow someone to get from Wellingborough to MK with no particular problem.

This is a fair point, although it could be said about just about anywhere in the UK - but the old route at least runs right past Brackmills. I remember hearing a while ago that "the old railway" at Brackmills was going to be built over, but I'm unsure if it was the Wellingborough route or the Bedford route affected. Obviously if the route has been built over within Northampton, that's a major obstacle.

It's not been built over, but good luck with reinstating a line through the industrial estate - the level crossings alone would fall foul of current NR standards.

The Stansted service does pretty well, I understand - and I suspect people will travel for the flights available at Luton, although climate change may put a brake on it at some point.

I suspect very few travel from Birmingham to Stansted unless they are trying to fly to a specific destination. Birmingham, East Mids and even Liverpool or Manchester are far more accessible.

The point I'm trying to make is that there's really not a lot wrong with the roads in the area and they're probably above average by UK standards (however old they are), yet they're still packed into Northampton.

As somebody who's lived in the area close on 2 decades I can say you're wrong and there's alot wrong with the Northants road network - starting with the A43 still being single carriageway, the access to the M1 being via the A45 causing congestion there and a general lack of investment.

I'm not saying it's a definite winner, but it might well be worth a feasibility study.

If you want to waste taxpayer's money on a crayonista pipe dream, then yes. Far better to focus on real and likely schemes.

 

[si404]

The last "development" the Northants road network saw (apart from the dumb "Smart" motorway on the M1) was either the A43 upgrade (late 90s) or the A14 (again 90s).

In the last few years, the (basically bust) Northamptonshire County Council gave Corby an A43 bypass and Daventry a 'development road' (designed as dual carriageway, built as single carriageway) between it and Northampton. This list of schemes in development/construction has Kettering-Northampton improvements that is dualling the A43 between the two towns - a bypass opened earlier this year as part of that.

Compared to most of the rest of England, this is a lot of development of the road network for the last ten years (it's less of a 'general lack of investment' than elsewhere). And I've only mentioned schemes related to this E-W 'arc' idea.

I would suggest that Daventry-Northampton-East Northants is a growing corridor that needs better public transport links to go with the improved-but-still-not-adequate road links. Whether that's rail is a different matter.

---

Banbury in all this is adding confusion - the report's detail doesn't really talk about Banbury beyond the 'relieve the A43' benefit (which would suggest meeting the Chiltern line in that sort of area) - this, however, doesn't fit in with the talk of 'avoid-Leicester' Birmingham-Peterborough route via Leamington Spa (though what's wrong with Birmingham-Northampton via Coventry?), and the specific goal to serve Daventry. Banbury seems to be on there because Warwickshire is part of a different transport body and it's as close as they can get while still talking about their patch.

 

[squizzler]

The thing I'm unsure about is whether this development across the 'arc' would cause people in Peterborough/Banbury to want to travel to Northampton and vice versa. Thinking about it from the perspective of someone living in a (hypothetical) newly expanded Banbury, bursting with new jobs and new houses... why would this make me want to travel to Northampton, even if the same thing were happening there? The more likely journeys for business or leisure would still be toward London, Birmingham or Oxford.

It's a polycentric area and people who live in one town will not necessary work in the same, even if the number of jobs and people of working age in that town were exactly the same.

A brief anecdote: I lived and worked in Towcester as a planning officer for a couple of years during the late '00s. The opportunity for after work social life was very poor because almost all the other council officers would get in their cars and bugger off at the end of the day. So much for the professional salaried employees; in local government people will not get internally promoted but typically move up the ranks by responding to job adverts in nearby authorities so people would work in different places as their career progresses, making for long commutes. It also meant nobody had the freedom for an after-work drink. The admin staff were more likely to live local. With the recently deviated A43 alignment and Silverstone on the doorstep, the local highways were seemingly built for people called Rupert and Toby to thrash it everywhere in their Aldis at 90mph on largely dual carriageways. Even for myself as a paid up member of the motoring community (although not super-keen) it still affected one's lifestyle choices. Pity any non motorists, the busses were a joke.

Except you have nowhere of significance between Banbury and Northampton - it's basically open countryside. And most of the commuting demand from Northampton is north-south, so Coventry, Birmingham or MK and London. Not that many people go east-west. Peterborough has relatively few large employers overall.

So you think a rail connection must be justified by the local markets on its own route, but when it comes to the highways you appreciate that a local connection can form a link within larger scale regional corridors?

Whilst I get the impression that the Northern arc is not replacing the A43 through Towcester and Brackley but would likely take a northerly path through Daventry, these new rail links could take the form the backbone of decent transport services in the area, and more importantly take the strain (lorry and motorcar) off the local highways.

As somebody who's lived in the area close on 2 decades I can say you're wrong and there's alot wrong with the Northants road network - starting with the A43 still being single carriageway, the access to the M1 being via the A45 causing congestion there and a general lack of investment.

If you want to waste taxpayer's money on a crayonista pipe dream, then yes. Far better to focus on real and likely schemes.

Why take such an abrasive tone? I know this is a rail forum, and we feel most comfortable in the nostalgic world where rail was always the bridesmaid and never the bride, but let's be terribly brave and explore the real world where rail travel is increasingly seen as something to nurture and invest in. Furthermore I suggest that it is you who is indulging a "crayonista pipe dream" that afflicts less competent highway planners: the fallacy of being able to build your way out of congestion.

 

[A0wen]

It's a polycentric area and people who live in one town will not necessary work in the same, even if the number of jobs and people of working age in that town were exactly the same.

A brief anecdote: I lived and worked in Towcester as a planning officer for a couple of years during the late '00s. The opportunity for after work social life was very poor because almost all the other council officers would get in their cars and bugger off at the end of the day. So much for the professional salaried employees; in local government people will not get internally promoted but typically move up the ranks by responding to job adverts in nearby authorities so people would work in different places as their career progresses, making for long commutes. It also meant nobody had the freedom for an after-work drink. The admin staff were more likely to live local. With the recently deviated A43 alignment and Silverstone on the doorstep, the local highways were seemingly built for people called Rupert and Toby to thrash it everywhere in their Aldis at 90mph on largely dual carriageways. Even for myself as a paid up member of the motoring community (although not super-keen) it still affected one's lifestyle choices. Pity any non motorists, the busses were a joke.

I just love the stereotyping on these forums......

So you think a rail connection must be justified by the local markets on its own route, but when it comes to the highways you appreciate that a local connection can form a link within larger scale regional corridors?

Whilst I get the impression that the Northern arc is not replacing the A43 through Towcester and Brackley but would likely take a northerly path through Daventry, these new rail links could take the form the backbone of decent transport services in the area, and more importantly take the strain (lorry and motorcar) off the local highways.

Not necessarily - but Northampton to Banbury doesn't serve a useful purpose. Oxford would be a destination, but that will be more easily achieved once EWR is open. Going north from Banbury you get to Leamington - which can be achieved currently with 1 change from Northampton (at Coventry). That's why I think Northampton - Banbury is a waste of time - because it doesn't actually achieve anything. So unless it's also providing additional connectivity - and the likely places en route are very small - it doesn't really solve any problems.

Why take such an abrasive tone? I know this is a rail forum, and we feel most comfortable in the nostalgic world where rail was always the bridesmaid and never the bride, but let's be terribly brave and explore the real world where rail travel is increasingly seen as something to nurture and invest in. Furthermore I suggest that it is you who is indulging a "crayonista pipe dream" that afflicts less competent highway planners: the fallacy of being able to build your way out of congestion.

Well, isn't that (the bit I've put in bold) exactly what's happening with HS2 ? Yet instead on these forums there's opposition to that and people seriously suggesting reopening lines which weren't viable 70 years ago and closed before Beeching. And whilst you can't "build your way out of congestion", it's pretty irresponsible to allow for a population explosion of circa 20% between 1980 and 2010 and not invest in capacity in the prime method of transport.

 

[Camden]

Given the opposition to developing rail services in favour of road, I am a little confused as to why you'd be on this forum rather than Road Forums UK!!

The nature of the modern economy is very different to 70 years ago. Jobs are much more diverse, and companies increasingly need access to larger labour pools in order to fulfill all their needs. This is matched by populations that have increasing expectations of what life should be like, and who can vary between moving to where they can secure what they want, and those living unsatisfied in situ. Ideally, most people would be able to secure a satisfying life without having to be nomadic, and so that requires an opportunity landscape wider than a town of 50,000 can offer, hence connectivity.

That connectivity has to be fluid, reliable, affordable and accessible to as many different types of people as possible if it is to provide that landscape. The car is not that mode, especially for the young and less well off.

The area spoken about is fortunate in that it has the majority of needed infrastructure in place to cross connect these places to one another, at distances which are close enough to be easily bridged by rail in a way that can redefine their commuting relationships.

I would also argue that a region not entirely ruined by dual carriageway has much to gain from prioritising rail to road's exclusion.

And whilst you can't "build your way out of congestion" it's pretty irresponsible to allow for a population explosion of circa 20% between 1980 and 2010 and not invest in capacity

So, it could be argued this rail project is long overdue!

 

[A0wen]

Given the opposition to developing rail services in favour of road, I am a little confused as to why you'd be on this forum rather than Road Forums UK!!

Because I don't believe rail is the only option. And I don't believe reinstating long-dead lines which would still be marginal is a way forward. Rail has its benefits, but being pro-rail doesn't mean anti-car, nor vice versa, despite the 'groupthink' of some around here. Rail is expensive to reinstate or build new, so any such schemes need to be *very* carefully thought out. Reinstating lines which become a financial drain are not a good idea as all that will do is result in history repeating itself - resources spread more and more thinly, ballooning costs, ultimately service reductions to reduce the losses and so on.

The nature of the modern economy is very different to 70 years ago. Jobs are much more diverse, and companies increasingly need access to larger labour pools in order to fulfill all their needs. This is matched by populations that have increasing expectations of what life should be like, and who can vary between moving to where they can secure what they want, and those living unsatisfied in situ. Ideally, most people would be able to secure a satisfying life without having to be nomadic, and so that requires an opportunity landscape wider than a town of 50,000 can offer, hence connectivity.

You're talking about a totally different economic model to the one in use in Western Europe since the Industrial Revolution. There's perhaps a reason why that hasn't happened ?

That connectivity has to be fluid, reliable, affordable and accessible to as many different types of people as possible if it is to provide that landscape. The car is not that mode, especially for the young and less well off.

You evidently don't know that many 'young' (by that I'm going to draw the line at under 30s) - I do though, and almost without exception they wanted to learn to drive and get their own car as quickly as possible. Not through any antipathy to public transport, but because they wanted the freedom to travel when and where they wanted. With PCPs the actual "cost" of obtaining a car has dropped massively - when you can pick up a brand new supermini for sub £ 200 a month, that's not a significant outlay - and the virtue of being a new car means the maintenance costs are low.

I would also argue that a region not entirely ruined by dual carriageway has much to gain from prioritising rail to road's exclusion.

Well, OK - you're free to go and live in such an environment. But the reality is building a train line that doesn't go where people want it to, when they want it to is a waste of resources. You might like to reflect on the fact there is no bus service from Northampton to Banbury - even via all the villages. Even in the past there was only a sparse service aimed at shoppers - nothing else was viable. Daventry to Banbury is similarly sparse, a couple of peak hours only journeys aimed at college students. No doubt you'll now argue "ah, but that's because it's a bus and people don't like buses, but if we built a railway line people would use it" - there's only one answer to that - balderdash.

If you look at the rail reinstatements which have happened, they have been able to support a regular bus service - the Borders Railway is a case in point. Ebbw Vale was another, so was Corby. Same goes for EWR - the X5 is a regular and well used coach service and there's a regular MK to Aylesbury service as well. And Blyth's another one where it has sustained a regular bus service to Newcastle - which gives a view that a rail service might be well used.

 

[Camden]

You evidently don't know that many 'young' (by that I'm going to draw the line at under 30s) - I do though, and almost without exception they wanted to learn to drive and get their own car as quickly as possible. Not through any antipathy to public transport, but because they wanted the freedom to travel when and where they wanted. With PCPs the actual "cost" of obtaining a car has dropped massively - when you can pick up a brand new supermini for sub £ 200 a month, that's not a significant outlay - and the virtue of being a new car means the maintenance costs are low.

Yes, I'm sure most young people (and I'm talking ages 18 and up) would give their eye teeth to have a car.

£200 a month might not be a lot to you, and indeed might be a sore temptation to a 20 year old in receipt of their starters salary, but if a significant number of your population can't afford any car to reach neighbouring labour markets then those jobs to them do not exist.

The language you use I think betrays a detachment from the reality of the UK's economy as experienced by a large number of people who are trapped by proportionally high outgoings versus low earnings, whose human potential goes to waste, and whose number is so significant they result in regions being net deficit in GDP.

That's not going to be fixed by making an A43 junction a bit less queuey for you. But it might be fixed by expanding Peterborough's immediately and realistically available talent pool by 300,000, attracting new business, and enabling people in Kettering to have a wide variety of opportunities that they know they can get to on a pay as you go basis.

 

[A0wen]

In the last few years, the (basically bust) Northamptonshire County Council gave Corby an A43 bypass and Daventry a 'development road' (designed as dual carriageway, built as single carriageway) between it and Northampton. This list of schemes in development/construction has Kettering-Northampton improvements that is dualling the A43 between the two towns - a bypass opened earlier this year as part of that.

The A43 Corby - Kettering was to by pass Geddington which was being blighted by the lorry traffic to / from Corby. I have a feeling the developers around Corby actually paid for that.

The Daventry one is single carriageway as it happens - and is basically the Flore by-pass, something the villagers there had been campaigning on for the best part of half a century.

The A43 bit between Kettering & Northampton that's been done is about 2 miles and is completely tied up to the housing development at Moulton - all it's done is bypass a bit of Moulton which was on the old A43.

Compared to most of the rest of England, this is a lot of development of the road network for the last ten years (it's less of a 'general lack of investment' than elsewhere). And I've only mentioned schemes related to this E-W 'arc' idea.

The sum total of the mileage built over those three schemes is 4 miles (Geddington by pass), 3.5 miles (Flore by pass) and 1 mile (Moulton) - so less than 10 miles in almost 20 years. Hardly excessive.

I would suggest that Daventry-Northampton-East Northants is a growing corridor that needs better public transport links to go with the improved-but-still-not-adequate road links. Whether that's rail is a different matter.

---

Banbury in all this is adding confusion - the report's detail doesn't really talk about Banbury beyond the 'relieve the A43' benefit (which would suggest meeting the Chiltern line in that sort of area) - this, however, doesn't fit in with the talk of 'avoid-Leicester' Birmingham-Peterborough route via Leamington Spa (though what's wrong with Birmingham-Northampton via Coventry?), and the specific goal to serve Daventry. Banbury seems to be on there because Warwickshire is part of a different transport body and it's as close as they can get while still talking about their patch.

There isn't a Daventry - East Northants corridor - and there will be even less so once the county council has gone. There's East Northants - which is basically Kettering, Wellingborough, Corby and points east which look a bit to Northampton a bit to MK a bit to Leicester. And there's the Northampton and Daventry and points west which look to MK, London and the West Mids.

 

[corfield]

Interesting this arc takes in the area I suggested as part of Verney-Buckingham-Brackley-Banbury.

It suggests there is a real and wider sense that more should be done than just complacently thinking that what we have is enough and we should be grateful for that.

Looking at services decades ago is utterly daft - these towns have grown (and will do) beyond all recognition and people now travel regionally on a daily basis.

As an example, my cousin works in central Aylesbury but lives in Uxbridge (partner). No sensible (quick/easy) train route so drives. There are millions like this, where the lack of non radial or town to town services forces them onto roads.

The Heart region has a lot of activity and lots of potential if ideas like this one can get realised. Obviously a few of the negative types will be embarassed but they really belong to 1960s BR and are likewise best consigned to history.

Much as I love my car and recognise the advantages of a private vehicle, we need to invest much more in rail at the local level. What wasn’t viable decades ago is irrelevent, population growth and greater travel have upended that equation.

All we need now is for the professionals to be able to do it with less of a song and dance cost wise.

 

[A0wen]

As an example, my cousin works in central Aylesbury but lives in Uxbridge (partner). No sensible (quick/easy) train route so drives. There are millions like this, where the lack of non radial or town to town services forces them onto roads.

But that's a daft example - there has *never* been a direct rail link between those two. And you'll always have people who make choices to live in one place and work somewhere else knowing full well they'll have a commute to go with it. That's not a justification for building a line from Uxbridge to Aylesbury.

And actually there is a *fairly* sensible rail option for that journey on existing network - Denham or West Ruislip to Aylesbury in a little over an hour.

All we need now is for the professionals to be able to do it with less of a song and dance cost wise.

I'm sure that @Bald Rick among others as one of said professionals will be delighted that you think he and his colleagues create a "song and dance cost wise"........ And no doubt will be along shortly to demonstrate such an assertion is completely misplaced.

 

[ForTheLoveOf]

The reality is that a town-to-town railway is only going to give rise to a BCR that's considered "good value" by today's standards if it enables connectivity between two poorly connected big attractors (i.e. Oxford to Cambridge), and/or if it serves the market also served by a road that's at least a dual carriageway A road, if not motorway, or else a highly congested road.

Northampton is a very large town that is currently disproportionately poorly served by the railway (thanks to the indigent landowners at the time of the WCML being built...). The roads have adjusted to the growth of the town but there is still only one station with slow (if cheap) north-south links. It would do well to have better regional connectivity.

As much as I have vested interests in it being built, you just have to look at the map to realise that a Northampton to Banbury line won't be built in a month of Sundays under this country's contemporaneous approach to rail investment.

Were it ever to happen, it would have to go via Towcester and Brackley to be even remotely viable and politically acceptable. That in turn would make it quite slow and uncompetitive for Northampton to Banbury journeys (especially seeing as it would scarcely justify more than an hour service). Even less so for journeys from further afield (Kettering/Peterborough etc.).

Even then, Towcester and Brackley would probably be better served with links to major high-end employment centres such as MK, Oxford and London. And so the circle will never be squared, because you can't serve both needs with one line, and two lines are even more unthinkable than building even just one.

In short, this is all just a load of pie in the sky thinking, much as I'd love for it to happen. We'd need to reduce costs by roughly an order of magnitude, and demand lower BCRs from infrastructure investment, before it could ever happen. Unless there's a crucial by-election that can be won by promising that they will start to think about doing it

 

[Camden]

Seems to be a lot of focus on Banbury-Northampton, but the full "arc" is Banbury-Peterborough via Northampton and Corby.

I think any of these segments on their own would struggle. But taken as a whole, does this not represent a different type of proposition entirely?

 

[A0wen]

Yes, I'm sure most young people (and I'm talking ages 18 and up) would give their eye teeth to have a car.

£200 a month might not be a lot to you, and indeed might be a sore temptation to a 20 year old in receipt of their starters salary, but if a significant number of your population can't afford any car to reach neighbouring labour markets then those jobs to them do not exist.

Sorry, but the stats don't bear out your claim of "significant" number - a small minority would be far more accurate.

The language you use I think betrays a detachment from the reality of the UK's economy as experienced by a large number of people who are trapped by proportionally high outgoings versus low earnings, whose human potential goes to waste, and whose number is so significant they result in regions being net deficit in GDP.

That's not going to be fixed by making an A43 junction a bit less queuey for you. But it might be fixed by expanding Peterborough's immediately and realistically available talent pool by 300,000, attracting new business, and enabling people in Kettering to have a wide variety of opportunities that they know they can get to on a pay as you go basis.

Where are you getting 300,000 from?

Corby + Kettering + Wellingborough's about 200,000 population. And across the whole of Northants you've only got about 20,000 unemployed (popn of 750,000) - so a relatively low unemployment rate - so few have the need to commute to Peterboro - and if you go east from Peterboro into the Fens you've got higher unemployment and worse deprivation. If anything that's where the focus for Peterboro should be.