• Our booking engine at tickets.railforums.co.uk (powered by TrainSplit) helps support the running of the forum with every ticket purchase! Find out more and ask any questions/give us feedback in this thread!

Reccesion over?

Status
Not open for further replies.

anthony263

Established Member
Joined
19 Aug 2008
Messages
6,558
Location
South Wales
Just read on the BBC that a lot of people are starting to believe that the reccesion could be coming to a end?

Personally i havent actually been affected by this reccesion, only thing i have noticed is that my bus fares have decreased and there seems to be more special offers.

anyone else have any opinions on this subject?
 
Sponsor Post - registered members do not see these adverts; click here to register, or click here to log in
R

RailUK Forums

Joined
5 Feb 2009
Messages
1,012
Location
Milton Keynes
I think that when the news had said that the worst of the recession is over people thought that the recession was completely over and the recession hasn't affected me very much atall
 

Geezertronic

Established Member
Joined
14 Apr 2009
Messages
4,094
Location
Birmingham
Not affected me either, in fact myself and my family are a lot better off than this time last year. I do know family and friends who have been affected though.
 

Aussie_Rail

Member
Joined
1 Jun 2008
Messages
560
Location
London, Great Britain!
That's excellent news, things similar have been said here and in the USA, so its starting to look good.

And all those Socialists blamed Capitalism, pfft what would they know.
 

43021HST

Established Member
Joined
11 Sep 2008
Messages
1,564
Location
Aldershot, Hampshire
I reckon the large companies will try to keep saying that there is a reccession as an excuse to make cut backs and the newspapers will try to make it sound like it is continuing but in fact it is long over because they like all the doom and gloom.
 

gingerheid

Established Member
Joined
2 Apr 2006
Messages
1,503
If it's over then it was the shortest recession in history; I don't believe a word of it.

We've borrowed billions as a country to prop up a failing system and we still are. The hangover isn't over until we've paid it back.
 

Pumbaa

Established Member
Joined
19 Feb 2008
Messages
4,983
No it isn't over. It's not that squeezy at the moment as the billions that were pumped into the system in the name of quantitative easing are doing what they're meant to do. But it won't last forever.

There's still a hell of a lot of empty void out there that needs to be uncovered. As soon as it is....
 

Aussie_Rail

Member
Joined
1 Jun 2008
Messages
560
Location
London, Great Britain!
Would anyone agree that the rate of the recession is slowing? I mean its not as fast moving as it was a few months ago, I mean the first time I recall this all happening was about July last year, so in one year a lot has happened, but now its not has bad as it was back then.
 

thefab444

Established Member
Joined
27 Oct 2006
Messages
3,688
Location
The New Forest
And all those Socialists blamed Capitalism, pfft what would they know.

What, may I ask, is wrong with a bit of socialism? It seems popular for people to slag it off for no reason what-so-ever. I know down under you're a bit more right wing that us, but it happens over here as well!
 

SouthEastern-465

Established Member
Joined
24 May 2009
Messages
1,657
Location
Greater London
In my opinion it comes and it goes.

I have not been affected (Touch wood!)but i feel for those who lost there job and were made jobless.

I do not know if this is the reason TOC's upped there fares,but i can Merrly that SouthEastern raised theres before the credit crunch,probaly knew it was coming!.

But im not hearing on the news all the time about the credit Crunch,so i think were nearly through it,and England are faring quite well now.
 

Pumbaa

Established Member
Joined
19 Feb 2008
Messages
4,983
well the markets have levelled out, which is s step in the right direction

It just shows that investors have a little more confidence in ventures, that's all. To be fair, the upward trend we see these few months is always there, the markets always perform better in summer, and the indexes fall again during September/October.
 

Aussie_Rail

Member
Joined
1 Jun 2008
Messages
560
Location
London, Great Britain!
What, may I ask, is wrong with a bit of socialism? It seems popular for people to slag it off for no reason what-so-ever. I know down under you're a bit more right wing that us, but it happens over here as well!
Well one of my friends is more involved in the SP than it seems to be worth and it all got to his head years ago and for ages he's been blaming my attempts, and others to make some money out there on the global financial crisis, which i think is a bit short sighted, but you cant change his mind.

So really when I say Socialists I mean those that have had it all gone to their head and have lost grip on themselves and are too narrow sighted to see otherwise.

Personally I don't blame Capitalism for it, I think it played a part in the whole crisis, but no to be blamed entirely, just a few bad elements of it.

I read in the news here today that the Commonwealth Bank of Australia put their interest rates up by a few percent, much to K Rudd's anger and other people, but I see this as a positive move as a few months ago all the interest rates were going down further and further, but now one bank has put them up, so this should be a good thing yeah?
 

Pumbaa

Established Member
Joined
19 Feb 2008
Messages
4,983
I read in the news here today that the Commonwealth Bank of Australia put their interest rates up by a few percent, much to K Rudd's anger and other people, but I see this as a positive move as a few months ago all the interest rates were going down further and further, but now one bank has put them up, so this should be a good thing yeah?
__________________

Well, not really. Australia did increase their money supply, and although it was less than UK and USA and Eurozone, it has worked for you. On the down side, the bank has had to increase interest rates to control inflation, as otherwise it will get out of control

I'm half expecting a similar move here next month, but I think it is too early to tell. Solving one problem only leads to another really.
 

Aussie_Rail

Member
Joined
1 Jun 2008
Messages
560
Location
London, Great Britain!
Well, not really. Australia did increase their money supply, and although it was less than UK and USA and Eurozone, it has worked for you. On the down side, the bank has had to increase interest rates to control inflation, as otherwise it will get out of control

I'm half expecting a similar move here next month, but I think it is too early to tell. Solving one problem only leads to another really.
Apparently the banks here are quite wealthy and doing pretty good for themselves but like all banks they do have some debts and I think this is a good way of keeping on top of things, but one good thing is the banking system here is very well regulated and the Government work well with them, something like that anyway. But either way the sooner this 'crisis' ends the better.
 

mumrar

Established Member
Joined
26 Sep 2008
Messages
2,646
Location
Redditch
The recession is no where near over, it's a media placebo story to make people feel better because they are told they are. The recession isn't over until the massive loans and government stakes are paid back. It's not over till the tens of thousands made redundant in the uk have jobs again. The recession is so far from being over it's not even conceivable
 

Pumbaa

Established Member
Joined
19 Feb 2008
Messages
4,983
Proof today that the Recession is not over.

Most markets in the world ended up "down" for the first time in several weeks by many points. Worst were those in South America and Asia. It is the belief of some, including myself, that this is again a contraction of credit; the huge amounts of money being pumped into the system have run their course, and now it has run dry. Nikkei 225 closed down over 2.5% today, that's a serious amount.

I got a phone call today at around 2 from a friend who works on Threadneedle St, who had popped over to the Exchange to share lunch and thoughts. He reported many people becoming anxious, and large amounts of reserves being rung through to shore up values. The volatile history today of the 250 index is particularly well hidden, but other commodities and precious metals have suffered.

In my eyes, this is very much evidence that we simply postponing the inevitable. Contractions such as this will continue, the cycle will continue, eventually however it must collapse. With a few black swans, it could be great fun to live through. Watch this space, watch the world of economics. Not wanting to sound to clichè, and advertise for them, we do live in financial times.

Interestingly, on a side note, research was published today that indicated a lack of sun spots over the last two years. This is proven to bring long, harsh winters. This could have serious impacts on the availability of food; not good news when you consider that Malthus looks set to be proven right, and our population pushes towards 7 billion.
 

Demps

Member
Joined
11 May 2006
Messages
692
Location
York
When the reccesion does come down, if it does, will train prices come down off their high horses, no, they wont.

Agree with mumrar, this is just media percieved bollocks. Unemployment is off the scale.
 

Metroland

Established Member
Joined
20 Jul 2005
Messages
3,212
Location
Midlands
No the recession is not over, and won't be for some time:

Reasons:

- Housing prices are still out of kilter with real wages, there are some way about the 3 x multiple and you now need a substantial deposit. Property and cheap credit fuelled spending in the UK and US.

- Many people have borrowed far too much and are activity seeking to discharge their debts through bankruptcy, this there are still many losses to come, especially as unemployment increases.

- Energy/commodity prices are climbing again, which I believe broke the camels back in the first place

- World imbalances. The UK economy and productivity is fundamentally over priced and out of balance with the rest of the world. While it is possible to offshore work (such as IT, telesales) and import cheap labour, expect some parts of society to be in recession for long periods to come. Indeed, some studies say that some elements of society have been in recession for many years anyway (especially semi skilled, low skill jobs and trades).

- Because the world was globalised and controlled by a relatively small number of monopolies, the financially 'bad contamination', spread throughout all areas and will take some time to work out.

Fundamentally I don't see any answer to any of this until Economics reflect societal well being, takes into account externalities (social and environmentally responsibility), and there is a sensible discussion about decentralisation rather than increasing monopolistic macro economic commercial behaviour and politics which supports this. Essentially, I believe the neo liberal economic system is broken.
 

Dennis

Established Member
Joined
8 Aug 2005
Messages
2,676
Location
Trowbridge
Fundamentally I don't see any answer to any of this until Economics reflect societal well being, takes into account externalities (social and environmentally responsibility), and there is a sensible discussion about decentralisation rather than increasing monopolistic macro economic commercial behaviour and politics which supports this. Essentially, I believe the neo liberal economic system is broken.

Be good to have that in words of one syllable or less :-?
 

Metroland

Established Member
Joined
20 Jul 2005
Messages
3,212
Location
Midlands
It's a critique of neo-liberal policies and political unions which have defined politics since the 1970s, and embraced by New labour, Thatcher, and most western governments.

It's surprising that many things that British people moan about, such as decline of manufacturing, mass immigration, privitisation, inequalities, are tied up with the embrace of neo-liberalism by all political parties in this country and elsewhere, but yet few know anything about it.

My criticism is that [neo liberal] economics is too much about profit seeking and efficiency rather than the social or environmental costs, the respect for cultures, and enabled manipulation and ultimately the destruction of markets. You will find a number of critiques around the internet, from leading economists, politicians and financiers for more information, you will also find antidotes to it from leading think tanks like the new economics foundation or Keynesian, which went out of fashion in the 70s.

And because the system is so fundamentally broken, the recession is a long way from over yet, especially among certain socio-economic groups.

Neo-liberal does not mean liberal in the sense of the liberal party, its actually another word for Thactherism (although she wasn't for giving up UK control over tax and borders) in short it is:

* The rule of the market — freedom for capital, goods and services, where the market is self-regulating allowing the “trickle down” notion of wealth distribution. It also includes the deunionizing of labor forces and removals of any impediments to capital mobility, such as regulations. The freedom is from the state, or government.
* Reducing public expenditure for social services, such as health and education, by the government
* Deregulation, to allow market forces to act as a self-regulating mechanism
* Privatization of public enterprise (things from water to even the internet)
* Changing perceptions of public and community good to individualism and individual responsibility.

Critics say:

Neoliberal economic globalisation encourages the pursuit of profit regardless of social and
environmental costs. It is associated with:

- Anti-sovereignty: globalization and liberalization is argued by opponents to have subverted nations' ability for self-determination;=
- Exploitation: critics of neoliberal policies consider capitalistic economics to be exploitive;
- Environmental costs: critics argue that neoliberalism leads to more transportation, and that more industrial production occurs in unregulated markets;
- Negative economic consequences: Critics argue that neo-liberal policies produce inequality and deterioration in living standards without the improvements in efficiency which are predicted.
- Increase in corporate power: some anti-corporate organizations believe neoliberalism, in difference to liberalism, changes economic and government policies to increase the power of corporations and large business and a shift to benefit the upper classes over the lower classes

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neoliberalism

However after collapse, leading economists said

'This crisis raises fundamental questions about globalization, which was supposed to help diffuse risk. Instead, it has enabled America’s failures to spread around the world, like a contagious disease. Still, the worry at Davos was that there would be a retreat from even our flawed globalization, and that poor countries would suffer the most.'

and

'[There was a] striking … loss of faith in markets. In a widely attended brainstorming session at which participants were asked what single failure accounted for the crisis, there was a resounding answer: the belief that markets were self-correcting.'

'The uncomfortable truth is that democracy and free markets are incompatible. The whole point of democratic government is that it uses the legitimacy of the democratic mandate to diffuse power throughout society rather than allow it to accumulate—as any player of Monopoly understands—in just a few hands. It deliberately uses the political power of the majority to offset what would otherwise be the overwhelming economic power of the dominant market players.'

http://www.globalissues.org/article/39/a-primer-on-neoliberalism

In short the system collapsed because the people that ran the system, knew that governments would have to bail the system out, the other option was complete financial collapse. Point is, so much money has been lost, its going to take a long, long while to work through.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2007/aug/28/comment.businesscomment
 
Last edited:
Status
Not open for further replies.

Top