Reopen Penrith to Workington via Keswick

[TheWierdOne]

Surely a light rail service would be best for a Keswick reopening too. The reasons for heavy rail don't really exist. Its not going to have linespeeds much quicker than 60mph. Its unlikely to be an attractive route for freight. There's unlikely to be through running and there not really a nearby depot for maintenance so not much issue in setting up a new light rail facility.

The benefits are potentially lower construction costs as not everything has to be grade separated and no need for a full heavy rail signaling system. Theres also potentially lower operation costs thanks to driver only operation.

Light rail seems like a sensible solution, as long as there is surge capacity available. Bonus points for easier disabled access, and it could make getting to Cockermouth and Workington easier because that part of the route really has been let go.

 

[deltic08]

Only on the section between Keswick and Cockermouth, the Penrith - Keswick section would be quite easy to reopen in engineering terms (bar that one bridge that got washed away a few years ago.

I would have thought the business case would be a fairly quick slam dunk given the thousands of tourists that go to or near Keswick each year. There is a bus link but it's hardly convenient. The Keswick Convention alone generates over 12,000 visitors, worth a through train to Manchester or Glasgow I would think, at least in the summer for convention goers.

A London-Keswick through train ran as late as 1968 for the Convention top and tailed by a class 50 that brought the train from London and class 40 from Penrith to Keswick.
I presume the line will be single track with passing loops. There is still room between the A66 east bound carriageway built on the old trackbed, and the lake. Where width is lacking for a few hundred yards, the new trackbed can be raised and built out into and above water level. That would avoid a lengthy and expensive tunnel. That will keep the railway on the north side of the A66 between Braithwaite and Cockermouth and require two less road over rail bridges if the old route is followed.
Isn't the route north of the lake too hilly influenced by Skiddaw? It is certainly longer.
A road over rail bridge will be needed where the B5291 leaves the A66 to Bassenthwaite village and again at the site of Embleton station. The old alignment can be picked up again just out side Cockermouth.
Why not build a new A66 immediately adjacent and south of the present A66 and use the present A66 for a railway trackbed as it was originally ?
I agree with building a new alignment straight up the hill from the junction with the WCML avoiding the looping alignment at Thrusco that has encroached on the old trackbed, but what will be the gradient to Penruddock? Would the line need to be electrified?
What does Mr Martindale think of your suggestion?

 

[waverley47]

"A business case for the Keswick and Penrith line reinstatement, collated by JMP Consultants, was first released in 2007. It stated passenger usage was likely to be in the range of 230,000 to 320,000 a year, with the potential to rise to 480,000."

The costs of reconstruction the last time it was looked at was broken into three parts: "The first with minimal infrastructure intervention was slated to cost £89M (in 2007 prices). The second option, which would see the construction of intermediate stations, was estimated to cost close to £93M. Option three, which would see the same stations as option two built but with a deviation of the route to Stainton and with a passing loop in Keswick, was costed at over £111M" these prices will have significantly increased though.

However there is already political will, with the local MP supporting it along with the newly formed unitary council.

I think the reply in post 28 by ThePlanner sums up my feelings quite well.

If we assume maximum potential ridership of 1 million a year, which is quite an ambitious overestimate, and take a nice median estimate of prices from 2007 at £100m, that still means that the line would pay itself back over 100 years. That's not terrible for a railway line.

But that's at the absolute height of feasibility. The numbers will only get worse from there. At modern prices you're looking at the line paying itself back over more like 400 years.

I like the idea of rebuilding railway lines, and I generally agree with the position that they are a social good. I contributed heavily to the reopening of several of them through my work.

This line however is a non starter. The sums will never work out in a way that supports a railway line.

 

[Bald Rick]

This has been discussed a few times before, for example here:

"Cedric Martindale proposes Penrith to Keswick reopening"

Cedric Martindale founder of CKP Railways reports that the bid documents that he submitted with the support of Allerdale District Council and 4 local MP's is one of only 10 out of 60 submissions that is to be taken forward immediately by Department for Transport to the next stage (source...

www.railforums.co.uk

Back then (4 years ago) I estimated Penrith - Keswick alone to be in the range £500m-£700m. It will be more now. Going all the way to Workington will be well north of £2bn. To put it in context, it’s about 30% longer than EWR Eastern Section which is in the order £3bn. And EWR is mostly on easy ground, and very specifically not through a national park.

Worth noting that this went absolutely nowhere in the Restoring Your Railway programme.

I would have thought the business case would be a fairly quick slam dunk given the thousands of tourists that go to or near Keswick each year.

Absolutely slam dunked.…. straight into the bin.

There is a bus link but it's hardly convenient.

It is *very* convenient. In my opinion rather more convenient than the train would be, as it actually goes to Keswick town centre, unlike the railway. And at the Penrith end drops you right outside the front door of the station - it‘s a shorter walk from bus to train for southbound passengers than it would be for an imaginary Keswick train to train.

For the price of a (proper) feasibility study that would inevitably tell you it has no business case, you could double the bus service for several years and make every other one a very limited stop Penrith - Keswick - Cockermouth - Workington which would knock chunks of time off it.

 

[yoyothehobo]

This has been discussed a few times before, for example here:

"Cedric Martindale proposes Penrith to Keswick reopening"

Cedric Martindale founder of CKP Railways reports that the bid documents that he submitted with the support of Allerdale District Council and 4 local MP's is one of only 10 out of 60 submissions that is to be taken forward immediately by Department for Transport to the next stage (source...

www.railforums.co.uk

Back then (4 years ago) I estimated Penrith - Keswick alone to be in the range £500m-£700m. It will be more now. Going all the way to Workington will be well north of £2bn. To put it in context, it’s about 30% longer than EWR Eastern Section which is in the order £3bn. And EWR is mostly on easy ground, and very specifically not through a national park.

Worth noting that this went absolutely nowhere in the Restoring Your Railway programme.





Absolutely slam dunked.…. straight into the bin.




It is *very* convenient. In my opinion rather more convenient than the train would be, as it actually goes to Keswick town centre, unlike the railway. And at the Penrith end drops you right outside the front door of the station - it‘s a shorter walk from bus to train for southbound passengers than it would be for an imaginary Keswick train to train.

For the price of a (proper) feasibility study that would inevitably tell you it has no business case, you could double the bus service for several years and make every other one a very limited stop Penrith - Keswick - Cockermouth - Workington which would knock chunks of time off it.

This.

Close thread.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The main problem with the bus is that it suffers tremendous traffic congestion particularly on approach to the M6 roundabout which makes it unreliable for connecting into trains on an Advance fare, meaning you have to plan to sit around in a rather boring part of town for an hour. With it looking increasingly likely that intercity rail will move further towards a specific-train model, this needs to be resolved or people simply won't bother - if your bus misses the train, "£200 please" is not an acceptable response, and once you've had a McDs and walked around B&M there's not, unlike e.g. an airport, much to do by the station in Penrith.

A bus-improvement based solution might work alongside a P&R car park, but it would need to include two things - bus lanes on the dual carriageway to avoid the congestion, and it being sold as a "virtual train" so connection protection and Delay Repay apply. There were the RailLinks services in the early 2000s of which it was one, perhaps the concept needs to resurface.

I reckon simply having the bus in the journey planner and through-ticketable would make a significant difference to how many people used it for a rail journey.

The other problem with the bus is its poor quality (same reason I've given up using the "other X5" down here) - using urban-spec double deckers with fancy seats really isn't a substitute for the quality of something like a Class 170. This was formerly a service (like t'other X5) run with decent quality coaches which made the relatively long and undulating journey far more acceptable. There is accessibility to consider, but suitable accessible coaches (Plaxton Interdeck for example) do exist, they just cost more than rattly, bumpy buses which just don't offer the quality.

A third issue is bicycles and luggage, which really could do with provision (though there are options for doing this with buses). A road cyclist would just cycle, but it's a long way to go on a mountain bike with wide knobblies.

 

[Topological]

Without getting too deep into the geography, could the trackbed be used to get the bus into Penrith more efficiently?

Perhaps even provide some extra bus priority in areas where the traffic is also expected to be bad.

I see the point about bus delays, but these days you also have to factor in cancelled trains when working out schedules. If we were serious about modal shift the bus ticket could be integrated and any delay to the bus have the same validity change effect on the advance rail ticket as would be had if a train from Keswick was late.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I see the point about bus delays, but these days you also have to factor in cancelled trains when working out schedules. If we were serious about modal shift the bus ticket could be integrated and any delay to the bus have the same validity change effect on the advance rail ticket as would be had if a train from Keswick was late.

This is absolutely essential, I'd say. Less so at Windermere where Northern is the main operator and Advances aren't the main ticketing (and the through services to Manchester seem by far the busiest trains), but if IC is moving that way it'll never get much takeup unless connections are protected (including alternative transport/accommodation if the last train is missed due to bus delays).

 

[Peter Sarf]

I find myself wondering why this line was not rescued and turned into a preserved railway within years of it closing. If there truly is so much tourist potential.

This is a thought I arrive at with many of these re-opening ideas. If it did not happen on the cheap with volunteers then what chance does it have unless there has been a dramatic change in need.

The light rail option might make the figures line up well enough ?.

Demand could increase enough if a huge housing estate were to be built at Keswick !.

Without getting too deep into the geography, could the trackbed be used to get the bus into Penrith more efficiently?

Perhaps even provide some extra bus priority in areas where the traffic is also expected to be bad.

I see the point about bus delays, but these days you also have to factor in cancelled trains when working out schedules. If we were serious about modal shift the bus ticket could be integrated and any delay to the bus have the same validity change effect on the advance rail ticket as would be had if a train from Keswick was late.

I know. Lets have an integrated transport policy. Oh wait.... this is Britain.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Demand could increase enough if a huge housing estate were to be built at Keswick !.

The main demand is the other way and is tourists. There won't be that many Keswick to Penrith commuters, if anything there's probably more (tourist industry) jobs in Keswick.

 

[waverley47]

This line falls into the category shared by so many of our closed railway lines. I can think of three, maybe four, reopening proposals that I could fudge the numbers enough to make work on paper.

The rest all have the same problem. If we were doing Beeching now, we might decide not to close it, and that might be a good decision. But we aren't. The line did close. And now that it's closed, it's impractical to reopen.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I know. Lets have an integrated transport policy. Oh wait.... this is Britain.

We did briefly have RailLinks which were sort-of-integrated, ideal for this sort of case (and Ambleside). We could do with that back, allowing through bookings online. Simply being able to enter Ambleside or Keswick* in a journey planner and get a sensible result would be a big move the right way, as that's what people will tend to do, and then give up and drive when there's no station.

* Or Lyndhurst. Or Llanberis/Pen y Pass. There are so many examples of tourist journeys that likely don't get sold because the destination isn't in the planners.

 

[Peter Sarf]

We did briefly have RailLinks which were sort-of-integrated, ideal for this sort of case (and Ambleside). We could do with that back, allowing through bookings online. Simply being able to enter Ambleside or Keswick* in a journey planner and get a sensible result would be a big move the right way, as that's what people will tend to do, and then give up and drive when there's no station.

* Or Lyndhurst. Or Llanberis/Pen y Pass. There are so many examples of tourist journeys that likely don't get sold because the destination isn't in the planners.

It is so true. After all most SatNavs can do the entire car journey in one go (even adding via points) !.

 

[Burton Road]

We did briefly have RailLinks which were sort-of-integrated, ideal for this sort of case (and Ambleside). We could do with that back, allowing through bookings online. Simply being able to enter Ambleside or Keswick* in a journey planner and get a sensible result would be a big move the right way, as that's what people will tend to do, and then give up and drive when there's no station.

* Or Lyndhurst. Or Llanberis/Pen y Pass. There are so many examples of tourist journeys that likely don't get sold because the destination isn't in the planners.

For national parks where there's little prospect of the level of housing development needed to make a new rail line's business case stack up this seems the only logical option for integrating towns into the rail network. Indeed where track bed still remains a partial bus conversion along the lines of Leigh or Cambridgeshire could be used to avoid road congestion, improve services (and hypothetically demonstrate a business case for eventual rail reopening if it climbs high enough). If we want to improve passenger transport into the NPs that seems a much more viable model in the medium term.

This line falls into the category shared by so many of our closed railway lines. I can think of three, maybe four, reopening proposals that I could fudge the numbers enough to make work on paper.

The rest all have the same problem. If we were doing Beeching now, we might decide not to close it, and that might be a good decision. But we aren't. The line did close. And now that it's closed, it's impractical to reopen.

Just out of interest which three or four projects are you thinking of?

 

[CAF397]

Bit of a non sequitur there - there's no reason 3 aspect signalling can't have quite high line speeds, one example local to me being the Airedale Line, much of which is 90 mph.

Indeed. Carstairs to Midcalder Junction is predominantly 95mph with two aspect signalling (Distant, Stop).

 

[BogiePicker]

I think I've also seen a proposal from a while back for a new-build North Transpennine Main Line from Penrith to Darlington, 32 mins, 125mph VMax. Via Stainmore gap, Brough and Appleby. This could tie in with that.

 

[The Planner]

I think I've also seen a proposal from a while back for a new-build North Transpennine Main Line from Penrith to Darlington, 32 mins, 125mph VMax. Via Stainmore gap, Brough and Appleby. This could tie in with that.

What on earth is that serving or solving?

 

[wilbers]

Without getting too deep into the geography, could the trackbed be used to get the bus into Penrith more efficiently?

If you mean could a road be built on the route of the trackbed for buses to use, then no - the way it comes into Penrith is on the same bridge over the M6 as the WCML.

 

[BogiePicker]

What on earth is that serving or solving?

I'd need to dig around to find specifics, but my memory tells me it was to serve as a rail alternative to the A66.

Edit: from Mr Gareth Dennis, proposed as mixed traffic railway, details here

x.com

x.com

 

[wilbers]

.. and once you've had a McDs and walked around B&M there's not, unlike e.g. an airport, much to do by the station in Penrith..

I know its very much not the main point of your post, but there are 2 B&Ms in town, one at the opposite side of town across from the hospital, and one in the middle of town (the old Woolworths). Home Bargains is the one near the station you are thinking of.

 

[HSTEd]

I'd need to dig around to find specifics, but my memory tells me it was to serve as a rail alternative to the A66.

Edit: from Mr Gareth Dennis, proposed as mixed traffic railway, details here

x.com

x.com

A rather strange way to spend many billions of pounds.....
Rail has to go where the people are, and Barnard Castle does not strike me as a particularly built up area.

 

[The Planner]

I'd need to dig around to find specifics, but my memory tells me it was to serve as a rail alternative to the A66.

Edit: from Mr Gareth Dennis, proposed as mixed traffic railway, details here

x.com

x.com

So a 125mph railway not serving anywhere and not going where anything really needs to go?

 

[waverley47]

I think I've also seen a proposal from a while back for a new-build North Transpennine Main Line from Penrith to Darlington, 32 mins, 125mph VMax. Via Stainmore gap, Brough and Appleby. This could tie in with that.

You must be joking. Unless this is very well veiled sarcasm, i cannot for the life of me fathom why anyone would ever propose this.

Just out of interest which three or four projects are you thinking of?

This is a new thread but I'll do them briefly.

I could make the Leamington line work on paper if it is run as a combination heavy rail/metro line, with metro providing a passenger service, and infrequent freight and heavy rail services.

I could make reopening the line to Cowley work if it was done bare budget and with one train in steam. This would require fudging the numbers to an extreme extent.

I could make the Sutton Park line work with basically any service level, because the line is already there. The problem is finding a service level that justifies the capital investment of building new stations, and that any reintroduction would also require capital expenditure to allow the paths to run

If I squinted, I could imagine a business case for the reopening of the Fraserburgh line, but this is primarily because the Scottish government puts different premiums on the social mobility of reopening, and ScotGov ask for the most optimistic business case, and a best estimate, whereas the UKGov ask for the most pessimistic and a best estimate.

 

[BogiePicker]

So a 125mph railway not serving anywhere and not going where anything really needs to go?

From the original twitter thread, these were what were aspired to:
- Scarborough/Scunthorpe -> York - > Glasgow
- Moors to Lakes via Keswick (relevant to this)
- Intermodal freight.
If one went all the way from Keswick to the Energy Coast Line, in theory you have another coast to coast between two industrial areas as well (Cumbria - Teesside)

 

[Topological]

If you mean could a road be built on the route of the trackbed for buses to use, then no - the way it comes into Penrith is on the same bridge over the M6 as the WCML.

Thanks, I can see it now. The old junction is just west of the M6 meaning any saving from having the bus segregated from the road is entirely alongside the WCML where there is insufficient space. The only way for the bus is still to use the roundabout and head into Penrith the normal way.

 

[InkyScrolls]

From the original twitter thread, these were what were aspired to:
- Scarborough/Scunthorpe -> York - > Glasgow
- Moors to Lakes via Keswick (relevant to this)
- Intermodal freight.
If one went all the way from Keswick to the Energy Coast Line, in theory you have another coast to coast between two industrial areas as well (Cumbria - Teesside)

What an awful name. I do wish people would use the Cumbrian Coast's real name.

And really? Cumbria is an industrial area now? I must have missed the masses of people travelling from Maryport to Dinsdale.

 

[paul1609]

"A business case for the Keswick and Penrith line reinstatement, collated by JMP Consultants, was first released in 2007. It stated passenger usage was likely to be in the range of 230,000 to 320,000 a year, with the potential to rise to 480,000."

The costs of reconstruction the last time it was looked at was broken into three parts: "The first with minimal infrastructure intervention was slated to cost £89M (in 2007 prices). The second option, which would see the construction of intermediate stations, was estimated to cost close to £93M. Option three, which would see the same stations as option two built but with a deviation of the route to Stainton and with a passing loop in Keswick, was costed at over £111M" these prices will have significantly increased though.

However there is already political will, with the local MP supporting it along with the newly formed unitary council.

Im not against the re-opening of the line but given that Uckfield to Lewes (7 miles) was costed at £141 million in 2008 by Network Rail for a basic railway option and that is basically rebuilding a flat railway down a river valley with no intermediate stations that suggests that the cost in 2008 prices was £20 million per mile. Just taking in to account inflation no extra regulatory cost that would be £220 million now or £32 million/per mile. Penrith to Workington is 40 miles by the A66 the railway was more cicuitous than that. So a very conservative estimate based on network rail basic costs would be in the region of £1.3 billion.

 

[Bald Rick]

The main problem with the bus is that it suffers tremendous traffic congestion particularly on approach to the M6 roundabout which makes it unreliable for connecting into trains on an Advance fare,

I must admit, having been at that junction M6 / A66 multiple times, car and bus, all times of day and week, mostly in spring / summer including school holidays.… I have never had anything remotely like ‘tremendous’ traffic congestion. (Most recent visit was weekend before last, in the evening at peak ‘going home after a day on the fells’ time). That’s not to say there isn’t congestion sometimes, but I suspect that for the vast majority of passengers on that bus service the arrival time into Penrith (which is the pertinent issue) is pretty reliable. It has always been on time when I have used it.

I reckon simply having the bus in the journey planner and through-ticketable would make a significant difference to how many people used it for a rail journey.

agreed. I forsee this happening under GBR in various places.

The light rail option might make the figures line up well enough ?.

No chance. For something like this, the costs of light rail arent that much different to heavy rail.

Im not against the re-opening of the line but given that Uckfield to Lewes (7 miles) was costed at £141 million in 2008 by Network Rail for a basic railway option and that is basically rebuilding a flat railway down a river valley with no intermediate stations that suggests that the cost in 2008 prices was £20 million per mile.

And that figure was optimistic then. Fortunately we have lots of real world costs for building new railways since, all over the country. Most relvantly, East West Rail (Bicester - Bletchley) is outturning at between £40m and £50m a mile in cash values. Bear in mind that much of that is long since spent, and the cost would be higher if inflated to current prices.

Anyone proposing a new railway would be well advised to use that as a baseline, and explain what would make their propsal different (positively and negatively).

In this case I can think of several reasons why it would be technically more difficult (and therefore expensive) than EWR - requires completley new primary consent and would have to be deemed of national stategic importance compared to reasonable alternatives (my emphasis), location partly in a National Park, formation missing / washed away in places, some sections prone to flooding and further wash outs, formation built on in several locations, structures not maintained for 60 years, and only one where it would be less difficult - no need for a Bletchley Flyover.

 

[The Planner]

From the original twitter thread, these were what were aspired to:
- Scarborough/Scunthorpe -> York - > Glasgow
- Moors to Lakes via Keswick (relevant to this)
- Intermodal freight.
If one went all the way from Keswick to the Energy Coast Line, in theory you have another coast to coast between two industrial areas as well (Cumbria - Teesside)

What is the point of York to Glasgow when it would be no quicker than via the ECML. Where is the Intermodal freight going?

 

[Bald Rick]

I think I've also seen a proposal from a while back for a new-build North Transpennine Main Line from Penrith to Darlington, 32 mins, 125mph VMax. Via Stainmore gap, Brough and Appleby. This could tie in with that.

Your luck is in.

There is a good book on the history of the former line on most of that route (Stainmore) published at the end of last yesr and written by no lesser authority than Network Rail’s Director of Capacity Planning (ie timetabling).

Go buy it, have a good read, and you will see why a) that line opened, b) it closed and c) it won’t ever reopen.


Also note Mr Dennis’ cost estimate of £4.5bn, for just over 50 miles of route…