You have contradicted yourself. You can't accept the timetable won't be optimised and then say the journey time if it was optimised would be competitive. If the timetable was optimised, which it wouldn't be, the journey would be at least 1 hour. If it wasn't then the journey would be around 1 1/2 hours.
Either way it simply wouldn't be competitive. Just about everybody would still choose to drive a 1 1/4 hour journey than a 1 hour hourly train service that involved a connection, which if missed would make it a 2 hour journey.
Clitheroe - Preston had 3,000 passenger journeys last year. So Gisburn - Preston would almost certainly have far fewer than 1,000. That isn't even 3 per day.
I accepted the timetable won't be optimised in some ways - modifications could be made to the Gisburn to Preston service to permit this, rather than the Blackpool North to York, which is, of course, more difficult to tweak.
It's not necessarily a given that people would still choose to drive given the poor state of the roads in the area.
I have always been interested in how development, particularly residential development, may be able to provide part of the infrastructure funding and additional patronage that help to underpin wider improvements in services.
I think ultimately the controversy of the additional residential development coupled with the costs would be unfeasible but I wondered if you could:
- Extend Clitheroe services to Hellifield via additional station at Chatburn and Gisburn
- Extend one of the Leeds to Skipton services to Hellifield using battery EMUs calling at Gargrave
- Introduce an hourly service from Leeds to Heysham/Carlisle splitting at Hellifield (something like 2 x 2 carriage 195s)
This would need development of Hellifield station with additional platforms and would need to be supported by fairly significant residential development at Gargrave (area between rail line and existing village), Hellifield (area between A65 and rail line), Chatburn (area between A59 and Sawley Road around a new station) and Gisburn (area either side of A682 around a new station) along with decent parking facilities at these stations. The case for the residential development would be that there is an identified need across all areas therefore given you have to put it somewhere it makes sense to direct this to places it can support the provision of improved rail services as these improved services deliver much wider benefits across the area.
This would:
- Improve services on the Bentham and Settle to Carlisle lines materially which would be supported in part by the increased population at the southern part of the line and in part by the improved connections from the Clitheroe line.
- Allow better access from Manchester, Bolton and Blackburn to the Yorkshire Dales and to a lesser extent the Forest of Bowland.
- Improve connections from points north of Manchester to Skipton, Keighley and Bingley.
As I say though, the controversy of the additional residential development coupled with the costs would make this unfeasible but would hugely improve connectivity across these poorly connected parts of Lancashire and Yorkshire.
I think this is a good plan, but it could work without huge housing development on a smaller scale.
A split at Hellifield for Carlisle/Morecambe hourly (Heysham is a pointless extension with the current infrastructure) wouldn't be a bad idea, especially to soak up passengers on the Skipton to Leeds section of the lines. You wouldn't necessarily need new platforms at Hellifield to facilitate this either.
I'd avoid investing in new platforms and extending the Skipton to Leeds electrics until a few thousand units of new housing was in place, rather than build before.
Extending the Clitheroe line to Hellifield in that scenario is a decent idea with the regular connections down the Bentham line or S+C.
I'm not convinced about the station at Chatburn because even a completely new location towards Sawley would be difficult to access, and receive objections from local powerful landowners given the proximity to Downham and the Pendle Hill section of the Forest of Bowland AONB, and it's only a 10 min drive or bus ride (they have the C3/66/67 on top of the 280 here too) to Clitheroe station for people living in Chatburn itself.
Gisburn can support more development, perhaps more housebuilding in Barnoldswick or Earby could support a more frequent bus link from Housing Infrastructure Levy/S106 payments?
I wasnt suggesting services to Hellifield instead of the Gisburn station, more as closing a missing link if you extend to Gisburn and reopen the station, over tracks that exist.
OK.
Biggerisbetter's plan is a reasonable idea that combines mine and your ideas.
Quite the reverse: the business case is improved by reducing capital outlay (turnback facility at Gisburn). Settle/Long Preston/Hellifield is a reasonable potential source (you'd need decent connections of course), and there is certainly a Ribble Valley-Skipton market (you only have to drive the A59 at peak times to know).
Probably, and it would be daft not to serve Earby etc - but if even they haven't identified West Craven-Lancs as a market that probably means it's negligible.
I wasn't referring to Chatburn as a Parkway but as a location for housing develooment (which would be within car-free distance of a starion).
You obviously know Barlick better than I, but I still think they will continue look to Leeds, which is considerably nearer than Manchester.
It's not a coincidence that the parishioners demanded to remain ecclesiastically in Yorkshire when the (C of E) Dioceses Commission wanted to align the diocesan and county boundaries 10 years ago
The issue with extending to Hellifield is it means you'd probably make an extension using the same unit unviable and mess up the paths through Manchester.
But it could be worth additional units if the Leeds - Keighley - Skipton - Hellifield (split) --> Morecambe/Carlisle service pattern was chosen for the connection options.
On SELRAP's plans, I would suggest the roughly 30 min frequency on the M5 and M6 buses from Barnoldswick and Earby mean the demand is hardly negligible, and the daily traffic jams on the A682 in Barrowford, plus the A6068 Vivary Way in Colne (between the end of the M56 and the A56 towards Earby/Barnoldswick/Skipton) are pretty notorious.
Chatburn as a location for development is pretty hamstrung by the proximity of the Bowland AONB as mentioned above, and the powerful local landowners obstructing it (hence why the A59 Clitheroe-Whalley Bypass was built in a cutting round there).
As for the West Craven towns and villages, there'll always be some that want to be in Yorkshire or still think of themselves as Yorkshiremen/women, but there's a fair bit of economic links to the businesses around Colne/Burnley/Blackburn/Preston/Accrington.
Not linked with Manchester as much, but as you acknowledge, that's a factor of distance if anything.