I do think may people lack the willingness to think or even to see what is going on. I think that to do so means the whole thing unravels meaning you have to admit that your whole belief structure is, in fact, rotten! It is easier to swallow the "alternative facts" and pretend that things are going well and witter on about flights to Faro. Although some/most days I just think people are thick!
I think there's probably an element of that going on but at the same time it's not the easiest story to unpick and understand exactly what's going on. I read Private Eye religiously and still don't fully understand all the nuances of what's going on! How someone who isn't as politically switched on is supposed to understand the issues is beyond me. Whereas understanding that there are more flights to the airport, you can fly to Faro or Alicante direct, there's signs of progress at the steelworks is an easier thing to grasp even if it's all mired in dodgy dealings and could well represent poor value for money.
Even the duo of Campbell and Stewart I seem to recall fudged their explanation of the issues when they covered it a couple of months ago on their podcast and they're amongst the most politically switched on of anyone!
( it doesn't help Houchen has the Echo and Gazette "captive" - odd how the Echo put the anti Houchen news about Steve Gibson behind a paywall yet put every press release from Houchen free to air!)
Yes the Gazette at least published Gibson's attack without a paywall a few days later but you still had to navigate all the ads to see it! However it is disappointing that the local papers appear to be some degree of captive. I'm not sure it's malicious particularly, just a symptom of the death of local journalism generally meaning that all they really have the capacity to do these days is pump out press releases from whoever sends them without ever really doing any actual journalism by asking questions.
Is it a sign that the area is still leaning rightwards, and might be an area where the Tories do disproportionately well in the coming general election compared to other parts of the north?
Maybe?
I think the Tees Valley has been on quite an interesting journey politically. In 2019 (the big bang, with Houchen in 2017 being the warning sign that went unnoticed) I think it was a sign that the area was fed up with Labour, rightly or wrongly, so voted for change in the form of Tories (still miraculous how they painted themselves as the change candidates in 2019 after nine years in power) as well as it being a vote in favour of Boris who, no matter how odious many of us found him, did have quite high personal popularity. It was also a reaction to the toxicity of Corbyn. It is sometimes forgotten (or never realised) just how deeply unpopular he was personally in this area. Houchen winning in 2021 was on the back of the vaccine rollout, Boris still being comparatively popular (this was pre-Partygate recall), the rebuilding job of Labour still being a work in progress (this is the same election where Hartlepool went Tory in a by-election) and the Labour Mayoral candidate being, I'm sure lovely, but making zero impact at all in their campaign.
Now in 2024, personally, I suspect a lot of the MPs are toast (hopefully not just me projecting). I do think there's a general groundswell, as there is in many places, of general being fed up with them which will, probably, translate into Labour votes. But as me and
@DarloRich have noted Houchen himself has managed to tie himself to something which are perceived positively even if, you dig a bit deeper, they're mired in potential scandal. I think he is also quite popular because he is seen, rightly or wrongly, as standing up for the area and talking a positive story about Teesside. That will probably be enough to see him over the line (even if he doesn't win a majority of the votes). If we still had a proper electoral system being used where second preferences were counted I'd be much more confident that he would be toast.
I think the other thing that's interesting, and potentially having an impact, is that Teesside feels like one of the few areas (and perhaps others will be able to opine on whether my sense on this is right) which has actually done well out of "Levelling Up". There are actually signs of money being spent (not enough, and not cleanly) but shovels are impacting the ground. It feels as if that's quite unusual nationally? It seems like we're having money thrown at us in way that other areas are not. See, for instance, the new return service to London with LNER from Middlesbrough, the signs of works at Middlesbrough and Darlington stations. With more funding promised with £1bn being announced in January 2024 for more transport projects.
I'm not sure that the area is particularly right wing compared to anywhere else. Socially perhaps more conservative than the leafy suburbs of London but economically I don't think there's any sign that we're suddenly buccaneering free marketeers desperate for a small government and limited state interference.
So, if I had to predict it, my prediction would be that Houchen wins a narrow victory on the back of a split vote but in the General Election the Tees Valley will return a majority of Labour MPs with most Tories unseated. Houchen has some local popularity, but I don't think that means that the Tories themselves have a wellspring of popularity.
