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Scotland Votes 2011
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It's been an interesting election, but I would argue that it didn't get the media coverage it deserves. These are always important elections for Scotland (as are the equivalent polls in Wales); I would argue at least as important as the Westminster elections.
The polls currently suggest that the Conservatives and Lib Dems will lose a significant number of seats, whilst SNP and Labour look set to gain. In an odd twist, the Greens are doing remarkably well and could well end up beating the Lib Dems! The balance between constituency seats and regional seats is particularly interesting this time around, and those re-elected may be sitting with a different agenda this time around! SNP look set to gain more constituency seats, and Labour look set to gain more regional seats.
A while back, a Labour win looked almost certain. How things have changed. It's a much more closely fought election than anticipated. Labour's campaign has been disappointing; very few original ideas. They seem to have stolen their flagship policies off other parties! (eg SNP's council tax freeze, the Tory knife crime policy, etc). I think people are beginning to realise that voting Labour does not keep the Tories out; a tactic that failed spectacularly one year ago.
And the more Scotland sees of Iain Gray, the more they seem to want to punch him in the face!
An SNP win looks most likely at the moment, and it's safe to say that in this situation Alex Salmond would continue to govern as a minority. It seems to work for them, and it's not in his interest to form a coalition with the Tories or Lib Dems at this moment in time! And hell would freeze over before the SNP collude with Labour. However, enough Green seats could very possibly see an SNP-Green coalition (as the parties do share a number of views, most notably on independence). This would more than likely still be a minority government, but it would definitely give them more oomph, with as many as 8 green seats being predicted this time around!
The polls currently suggest that the Conservatives and Lib Dems will lose a significant number of seats, whilst SNP and Labour look set to gain. In an odd twist, the Greens are doing remarkably well and could well end up beating the Lib Dems! The balance between constituency seats and regional seats is particularly interesting this time around, and those re-elected may be sitting with a different agenda this time around! SNP look set to gain more constituency seats, and Labour look set to gain more regional seats.
A while back, a Labour win looked almost certain. How things have changed. It's a much more closely fought election than anticipated. Labour's campaign has been disappointing; very few original ideas. They seem to have stolen their flagship policies off other parties! (eg SNP's council tax freeze, the Tory knife crime policy, etc). I think people are beginning to realise that voting Labour does not keep the Tories out; a tactic that failed spectacularly one year ago.
And the more Scotland sees of Iain Gray, the more they seem to want to punch him in the face!
An SNP win looks most likely at the moment, and it's safe to say that in this situation Alex Salmond would continue to govern as a minority. It seems to work for them, and it's not in his interest to form a coalition with the Tories or Lib Dems at this moment in time! And hell would freeze over before the SNP collude with Labour. However, enough Green seats could very possibly see an SNP-Green coalition (as the parties do share a number of views, most notably on independence). This would more than likely still be a minority government, but it would definitely give them more oomph, with as many as 8 green seats being predicted this time around!
HawkeyeTheNoo
Member
I've really become disillusioned with the SNP particularly with their Edinburgh-centric attitude and the cancellation of the GARL! Still haven't decided which way to vote though but I guess I'll need to decide quick!
Cancelling EARL and gaRl were amongst the best decisions the SNP made!
With anti-LibDem feeling running relatively high, and lAbour likely to get a lot of constituencies in west/central scotland, SNP could easily have a minority government agin but with a smaller difference against the other parties. At that point they can contiunue to horse trade vote for vote. salmond well recognises that if the Tories and LibDems can say they got concessions from him it reduces their ability to argue against his policies when they supported them. Also it acts like a more consensus politics.
Given a choice between Salmond and Gray for First Minister it's tough.
No it wasn't !!
I would far rather have EARL than trams, and I said that before they had problems with the tram network.
No it's not. Politics aside, Iain Gray must not be allowed into the public eye. He's the most annoying, pathetic, vile little man to ever enter Scottish politics. And that's saying something! If it was a contest between Gray and Salmond, Salmond would win in a landslide. Thankfully, the electorate aren't just voting for personalities here.
I really was never sure about GARL. Although a link to the Airport would be a good thing, I don't think it warrants 4tph whilst the existing routes through Paisley struggle. The capacity would be better used elsewhere IMHO. As such, I wouldn't like to see GARL revived in the same way. It would be a waste of money.
CarterUSM
Established Member
I agree on both points! I don't care for the SNP, but i do like Salmonds smug demeanour and amusing quips. Gray seems more of a parish councillor , but i suppose he'd fit in to the parliament well then!! Not sure about the public not only voting for personalities though, the SNP seem to push Salmond to the fore in almost all election communication, I think it could be fair to say that he is miles ahead of any of his party colleagues in the charisma and personality stakes. I'd perhaps go as far to say he IS the SNP.
GARL had to go. It's sad, and in an ideal world it would've remained, but the Edinburgh trams fiasco sucked the money from it. It's unfortunate, but the trams were too far on to be caned, so something had to go and GARL was the best choice. The SNP have delivered on other rail projects such as A-B -which did actually open on time and budget, even if some of the stations didn't (open on time) - and Borders Railway work has begin. Remember, the SNP were always against the trams, and it was the Tories, Labour and Lib Dems who supported that.
They've also lead a pretty positive campaign which is farm roe attractive than Labour's negative, and failure campaigns (note the plural due to the failure of the "Protection from the Tories" mess).
I also like how we don't have to pay for prescriptions anymore, and how we have far more police out there than we did under Labour
Iain Gray's too busy running away.
They've also lead a pretty positive campaign which is farm roe attractive than Labour's negative, and failure campaigns (note the plural due to the failure of the "Protection from the Tories" mess).
I also like how we don't have to pay for prescriptions anymore, and how we have far more police out there than we did under Labour
Iain Gray's too busy running away.
From people who were actually on his side!
He probably thought he would ride the Subway to safety or something... This was set to be an easy victory from Labour, but their campaign has been one of the poorest I've ever seen. They have handed the election away (not that I'm complaining!)
DarloRich
Veteran Member
I cant understand why they dont just build a station at the end of the runway and be done with it! Much cheaper! Might be a bit close to Paisely St Mirren!
It will be SNP who get the most votes but i dont think they will get a large/any majority. The question could be who they go into coalition with, if any one! I have been up in Scotland with the parental unit for the last 15 days and have followed this quite closely.
I have to say that very few of the Scottish politcal leaders has any chariama at all. Salmond looks awful and seems to swell more and more every time i see him and he always looks a little smug, the conservative woman is terrible - who thought she would be a good idea - looks like a mad bag women who has been dragged through a hedge whenever i see her on TV. Gray has the right name for his personality, he is even more bland than Millibrain and i wouldnt know Tavish Scott if he walked in now! But what do they care what i think - i am registered in England!
From people who were actually on his side!
He probably thought he would ride the Subway to safety or something... This was set to be an easy victory from Labour, but their campaign has been one of the poorest I've ever seen. They have handed the election away (not that I'm complaining!)
Did you see that report when he walked into the Asda at Adrossan when Salmond was there. He claims in a false press release that it was Salmond who ran away, it it was recorded on video that it was HIM who took off saying "I only dropped in for a coffee."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i6Gqd_cWdEk
Honestly, this guy may be a decent person as they at Labour say, but he's a terrible pollution. He gets owned by Salmond every time they're in the same room. At least the Tories stand their ground.
Eng274
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I seem to remember the grand homecoming for 'wee' Eck when he returned at the helm of the SNP, they were lost without him!
Iain Gray has been exposed for the leering cocksocket that he is, how Miliband can defend him on telly without wincing takes courage (and botox I dare say
). He was torn a new one on the televised leaders debate a few days ago!
I have a smidgeon of respect for Annabel Goldie (is there a doctor in the thread..?!) but she is fighting a losing battle for the Cons in Scotland. Fair play to her though, there are more Conservative MSPs in Scotland than MPs, though it could just be a national apathy for Westminster in general.
I hope a SNP majority emerges, but as said above a coalition with the greens seems the only sane choice if two parties could ever join forces.
Iain Gray has been exposed for the leering cocksocket that he is, how Miliband can defend him on telly without wincing takes courage (and botox I dare say
). He was torn a new one on the televised leaders debate a few days ago!I have a smidgeon of respect for Annabel Goldie (is there a doctor in the thread..?!) but she is fighting a losing battle for the Cons in Scotland. Fair play to her though, there are more Conservative MSPs in Scotland than MPs, though it could just be a national apathy for Westminster in general.
I hope a SNP majority emerges, but as said above a coalition with the greens seems the only sane choice if two parties could ever join forces.
CarterUSM
Established Member
I've actually got a bit of time for Annabel Goldie, but the Conservatives really struggle to inspire any votes in Scotland nowadays. I just can't help feeling that the majority of MSP's are pretty dire compared to Westminister. And that is saying something......
I also quite like Ms Goldie. She's a good debater, she's quite well grounded, she speaks a lot of sense. If she weren't a Tory, she'd do really well in Scotland. To be honest, she does well even for a Tory.
I do agree with Carter's sentiments regarding the quality of debates. What really annoys me about the Parliament is that some parties (most notably Labour and the Lib Dems) send their weaker candidates to Holyrood, with their stronger candidates going to Westminster. This is quite clearly seen in the cases of Margaret Curran and Cathy Jamieson being "promoted" to Westminster, whereas the opposite has never happened. As such, the best debating tends to be SNP vs Tory (SNP sending their best candidates to Holyrood, and the Conservatives having no choice but to do so!). It's actually quite insulting, because the Scottish Parliament decides on some of the biggest issues that affect our day to day lives; education, health, transport, justice, etc... and as such I think the posts of MP and MSP should be of equal standing.
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The SNP (or, indeed, any party) winning a majority is an unlikely scenario. The AMS we use is a form of PR, and as such to get a majority you'd need huge levels of support. There's not that much between Labour and the SNP, and the swing needed to give an SNP majority would be phenomenal. It's an unrealistic expectation, I'm afraid.
However, if the polls are to be believed, an increased number of SNP seats combined with an increased number of Green seats (plus Margo MacDonald, if re-elected, and maybe some smaller parties) could create a nationalist majority, and we would then see an independence referendum in the next few years. Unlike last time, this is a realistic possibility. But that largely depends on the votes for the unionist parties as well, so we'll have to see what happens.
I do agree with Carter's sentiments regarding the quality of debates. What really annoys me about the Parliament is that some parties (most notably Labour and the Lib Dems) send their weaker candidates to Holyrood, with their stronger candidates going to Westminster. This is quite clearly seen in the cases of Margaret Curran and Cathy Jamieson being "promoted" to Westminster, whereas the opposite has never happened. As such, the best debating tends to be SNP vs Tory (SNP sending their best candidates to Holyrood, and the Conservatives having no choice but to do so!). It's actually quite insulting, because the Scottish Parliament decides on some of the biggest issues that affect our day to day lives; education, health, transport, justice, etc... and as such I think the posts of MP and MSP should be of equal standing.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
The SNP (or, indeed, any party) winning a majority is an unlikely scenario. The AMS we use is a form of PR, and as such to get a majority you'd need huge levels of support. There's not that much between Labour and the SNP, and the swing needed to give an SNP majority would be phenomenal. It's an unrealistic expectation, I'm afraid.
However, if the polls are to be believed, an increased number of SNP seats combined with an increased number of Green seats (plus Margo MacDonald, if re-elected, and maybe some smaller parties) could create a nationalist majority, and we would then see an independence referendum in the next few years. Unlike last time, this is a realistic possibility. But that largely depends on the votes for the unionist parties as well, so we'll have to see what happens.
43106
Member
I don't think that there will be much change. I'm amazed that there are some directly elected tory MSPs (e.g. David McLetchie), and I think that some of them are going to lose, due to Cameron. I'm in McLetchies constituency (Edinburgh Pentlands), but I think he'll get in by the skin of his teeth, simply due to boundary changes - I haven't helped him.
Iain Gray lives up to his name. He's grayer than John Major (which is quite a feat), and has the charisma of a wet haddock. He used to be MSP in Pentland, and had an office in Colinton Mains Drive. Therefore, the locals (including myself) had the misfortune to bump into the creep on a regular basis.
I don't like Salmond - he has the presence of a oil slick, I hope Kenny MacCaskill gets stuffed, as he is an idiot. The Lib-Dems will suffer, due to the coalition.
Iain Gray lives up to his name. He's grayer than John Major (which is quite a feat), and has the charisma of a wet haddock. He used to be MSP in Pentland, and had an office in Colinton Mains Drive. Therefore, the locals (including myself) had the misfortune to bump into the creep on a regular basis.
I don't like Salmond - he has the presence of a oil slick, I hope Kenny MacCaskill gets stuffed, as he is an idiot. The Lib-Dems will suffer, due to the coalition.
The count is underway... and although there's no results in as of yet, there appears to be a lower turnout (due to the weather), but a huge increase in the SNP vote. Indeed, some polls seem to suggest the possibility of an SNP majority; a rather unexpected prediction! It may well be rubbish, but early indications are a huge swing to SNP.
Eng274
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Kenny Mac is the incumbent MSP in my neck of the woods, much as I don't like the guy I think he was right in his part in the lockerbie "bomber" release saga (but that's for another day!) since the conviction was sketchy at best.
There is added confidence in some counting houses towards the SNP, but exit polls and rumour don't win elections, so hopefully I'm still awake at 6am to hear the important results. Lib dems as predicted are taking a serious beating.
EDIT: I hope George Galloway leaves East Kilbride with his cat tail between his legs, his Daily Recordo column is sensationalist tripe, and why Labour thought his presence would help I don't know. Can only help the SNP cause I guess
Also heard recently Sarah Johnstone of the green party saying "Every house insulated...reduce carbon..save every household an average of £340 a week" Well b*gger me, I don't even spend that much a week! Ker-ching!
There is added confidence in some counting houses towards the SNP, but exit polls and rumour don't win elections, so hopefully I'm still awake at 6am to hear the important results. Lib dems as predicted are taking a serious beating.
EDIT: I hope George Galloway leaves East Kilbride with his cat tail between his legs, his Daily Recordo column is sensationalist tripe, and why Labour thought his presence would help I don't know. Can only help the SNP cause I guess
Also heard recently Sarah Johnstone of the green party saying "Every house insulated...reduce carbon..save every household an average of £340 a week" Well b*gger me, I don't even spend that much a week! Ker-ching!
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Rutherglen or EK to announce first, both in the next few minutes. Both are safe Labour seats, but the swing will probably give us an idea of what's going to happen.
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EDIT: Rutherglen announcing just now... Labour hold the constituency, 1779 vote majority. SNP gained a lot of votes, but almost all from the Lib Dems. Nevertheless, a huge 7.4% swing to the SNP, broadly in line with the rumours and ballot samples across Scotland.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
EDIT: Rutherglen announcing just now... Labour hold the constituency, 1779 vote majority. SNP gained a lot of votes, but almost all from the Lib Dems. Nevertheless, a huge 7.4% swing to the SNP, broadly in line with the rumours and ballot samples across Scotland.
Eng274
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Rutherglen has been a Labour fortress for years, both at Holyrood and Westminster; they have done well to keep it. Good to see the SNP gaining huge ground despite not winning the seat.
Eng274
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Well done hen!
EK goes to SNP, swing of 6.6% from LAB to SNP.
Andy Kerr losing EK is a shocker. He's a huge Labour figure,and although he's probably going to get in on the regional list, it's a surprise to see him lose a relatively safe seat. He's not actually standing in the list, so he'll be signing on tomorrow morning.
Similar results in both constituencies, consistent with the predicitons... going to be a big night for the SNP. And, again, Lib Dems losing huge swathes of their votes.
Andy Kerr losing EK is a shocker. He's a huge Labour figure,
Similar results in both constituencies, consistent with the predicitons... going to be a big night for the SNP. And, again, Lib Dems losing huge swathes of their votes.
So if things continue to go like this for the SNP when is the independence referendum?
Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse goes over to SNP. This is an 11% swing to SNP, with Christina McKelviw gaining a whopping 18% of the vote!
We're not merely in Labour heartland here; these are amongst the safest Labour areas in the UK. This is huge. Iain Gray must be in tears at the moment.
We're not merely in Labour heartland here; these are amongst the safest Labour areas in the UK. This is huge. Iain Gray must be in tears at the moment.
Am very proud to have voted SNP in Hamilton and many of my friends no doubt did so in EK. Very good start to what's turning out to be a very good night for the party I'm proud to be a part of. Word has it Aberdeenshire is an SNP "whitewash" and that Miss Sturgeon may well win in Glasgow. Despite this, caution must be exercised.
Eng274
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Just seen footage of him turning up at the counting house in his own constituency, he looks rather keen to hide his face..
Rumour has it that parts of non-SNP Aberdeenshire are swinging to SNP as well, obviously can't tell until the results come in but it doesn't bode well for Labour or Lib dems.
Iain Gray could be the next Iain Duncan-Smith in terms of abject failures at the polls.
(Doesn't he look like Glen Quagmire close-up..?)
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CarterUSM
Established Member
Sooner the better hopefully, get it dead and buried for a good few years again. Very good results for the SNP all the same, though Labour have been getting away with murder for many years now, I don't even know what they stand for nowadays.
So if one were to be held you would expect it come out in favour of the status quo?
Certainly from what I'm hearing on the BBC it sounds like Labour have cocked up in Scotland quite spectacularly. Sounds like a case of pride cometh before the fall.
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