Severn Tunnel Closure - Have they Worked Out the Best Road Route?

[Nevasleep]

1h45 on Google Maps, if you go M32-M4
1h15 if you go M5-M48-A4180 (although queuing in Newport itself)

I guess they'll probably stick to the M4, although First do operate a service to Newport so maybe they aren't totally naive.

 

[Envoy]

And to think that some people on this forum don’t want a new M4 built south of Newport! I am all for rail travel but it is also important to have fast and safe roads to get people from place to place and take traffic away from built up areas. The railways could never cope with all those people who are now on the M4.

Just been checking on trains passing through Newport = the usual 2 & 3 coach formations apart from the longer London services. However 1B48 from Paddington has been cancelled - it could not come at a worse time! (Person hit by a train at Southall).
http://iris2.rail.co.uk/tiger/renderstaffsoad.asp?file=3046A6.xml

 

[Dai Corner]

If the drivers are expected to stick rigidly to a specified route - then I don’t think that this is good enough. In the case of the Severn Tunnel closure, staying in jams on the M4 tailing back from the Newport tunnel is going to be horrendous for passengers - which is why I say someone needs to be in overall command and advise when the tailbacks are so bad that it would be wise to take the alternative routes - such as the A4810. (If the drivers have smartphones - perhaps they could check out Google Traffic before starting off from Bristol Parkway)?

And to think that some people on this forum don’t want a new M4 built south of Newport! I am all for rail travel but it is also important to have fast and safe roads to get people from place to place and take traffic away from built up areas. The railways could never cope with all those people who are now on the M4.

Just been checking on trains passing through Newport = the usual 2 & 3 coach formations apart from the longer London services. However 1B48 from Paddington has been cancelled - it could not come at a worse time! Just shows, you can’t rely on the railways.
http://iris2.rail.co.uk/tiger/renderstaffsoad.asp?file=3046A6.xml

Sadly, it seems another person has been hit by a train at Southall.

 

[jimm]

And to think that some people on this forum don’t want a new M4 built south of Newport! I am all for rail travel but it is also important to have fast and safe roads to get people from place to place and take traffic away from built up areas. The railways could never cope with all those people who are now on the M4.

Just been checking on trains passing through Newport = the usual 2 & 3 coach formations apart from the longer London services. However 1B48 from Paddington has been cancelled - it could not come at a worse time! (Person hit by a train at Southall).
http://iris2.rail.co.uk/tiger/renderstaffsoad.asp?file=3046A6.xml

Or you might perhaps like to consider the bigger picture.

Someone has been hit by a train at Southall this afternoon, so GWML services are all over the place at the moment and there are plenty of delayed or cancelled services.

If you don't want to rely on the railways, you could always rely on the M4... or perhaps not.

And have you tried enquiring directly of GWR what arrangements might apply for routing of the replacement transport it is arranging, as opposed to on an internet forum not run by GWR?

 

[Envoy]

I now see that 1B51 from London to Swansea has also been cancelled due to the person being hit by a train. I just can’t see how GWR are going to cope at this time trying to shift all these people. This is not a criticism of GWR.

 

[D2007wsm]

If the drivers are expected to stick rigidly to a specified route - then I don’t think that this is good enough. In the case of the Severn Tunnel closure, staying in jams on the M4 tailing back from the Newport tunnel is going to be horrendous for passengers - which is why I say someone needs to be in overall command and advise when the tailbacks are so bad that it would be wise to take the alternative routes - such as the A4810. (If the drivers have smartphones - perhaps they could check out Google Traffic before starting off from Bristol Parkway)?

I think the guide is there to tell them the ideal route, but they can vary this if required.

 

[Grumpy]

. There were many wrong decisions made in the 1960s by the Tory Government that we regret now.
.[

Quite possibly. However it appears that the decision to demolish was taken in 1965 and demolition took place between 1967 and 1970. We had a Labour government from 1964 to 1970

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Quite possibly. However it appears that the decision to demolish was taken in 1965 and demolition took place between 1967 and 1970. We had a Labour government from 1964 to 1970

Please please don’t let facts get in the way of a nice conspiracy theory!

A lot of problems are coming home to roost now and no party is blame free. An integrated transport policy is surely the way forward even though I don’t want to build more roads. I think the above posts highlight how we also eventually need electrified rail diversionary routes into Wales.

 

[PHILIPE]

The Severn Tunnel and Southall are quite a distance apart. The Southall PHBT and the aftermath is here:-

www.railforums.co.uk/threads/severe-delays-on-gwml.165889

 

[Envoy]

The Welsh Government are imposing from Monday 18 June 2018 a 50mph limit on part of the M4 around Newport - right by the choke point of the tunnels. Well, it can be argued that due to the congestion, traffic can hardly go much faster in any case for much of the time. This speed restriction has the absolute bonkers reasoning that by going slower, less pollution will be produced. Perhaps they should tell all those taxi drivers who leave their stinking diesels running in the streets to turn them off first before trying to create even worse jams on the M4?

If you look at a river, where is passes through a narrow point, the flow speeds up. By slowing the traffic at the Newport ‘narrows’ (tunnel) - I think we can expect the tailbacks to be even worse. Well done Welsh Government - right at the time when the Severn Tunnel is closed for 3 weeks and the railways are trying to bus as quickly as possible people between Newport & Bristol.

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/new-50mph-speed-limits-come-14792421

Welsh Government environment minister Hannah Blythyn said: “I am committed to taking action to reduce air pollution in Wales to support a healthier future for our communities and protect our natural environment.”

 

[Dai Corner]

The Welsh Government are imposing from Monday 18 June 2018 a 50mph limit on part of the M4 around Newport - right by the choke point of the tunnels. Well, it can be argued that due to the congestion, traffic can hardly go much faster in any case for much of the time. This speed restriction has the absolute bonkers reasoning that by going slower, less pollution will be produced. Perhaps they should tell all those taxi drivers who leave their stinking diesels running in the streets to turn them off first before trying to create even worse jams on the M4?

If you look at a river, where is passes through a narrow point, the flow speeds up. By slowing the traffic at the Newport ‘narrows’ (tunnel) - I think we can expect the tailbacks to be even worse. Well done Welsh Government - right at the time when the Severn Tunnel is closed for 3 weeks and the railways are trying to bus as quickly as possible people between Newport & Bristol.

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/new-50mph-speed-limits-come-14792421

All those millions they spent on the variable speed limit technology to optimise flow (and thereby minimise pollution!) through Newport and they do this instead of letting the system do its job.

 

[paul1609]

Or you might perhaps like to consider the bigger picture.

Someone has been hit by a train at Southall this afternoon, so GWML services are all over the place at the moment and there are plenty of delayed or cancelled services.

If you don't want to rely on the railways, you could always rely on the M4... or perhaps not.

And have you tried enquiring directly of GWR what arrangements might apply for routing of the replacement transport it is arranging, as opposed to on an internet forum not run by GWR?

My experience of driving long distance is that the journey time is remarkably consistent. You might get held up in different places but the overall journey time is within a few minutes 99% of journeys. Rail on the other hand is only consistent when there are no problems when things go wrong they go badly wrong and you have to default on to different modes. My last caledonian sleeper journey was over 5 hours late for instance and i only achieved that by giving up on railway arranged transport and getting a taxi for the last 50 miles. This compares to my worst ever road journey which was delayed by just under 3 hours.

 

[HowardGWR]

The Welsh Government are imposing from Monday 18 June 2018 a 50mph limit on part of the M4 around Newport - right by the choke point of the tunnels. Well, it can be argued that due to the congestion, traffic can hardly go much faster in any case for much of the time. This speed restriction has the absolute bonkers reasoning that by going slower, less pollution will be produced. Perhaps they should tell all those taxi drivers who leave their stinking diesels running in the streets to turn them off first before trying to create even worse jams on the M4?

If you look at a river, where is passes through a narrow point, the flow speeds up. By slowing the traffic at the Newport ‘narrows’ (tunnel) - I think we can expect the tailbacks to be even worse. Well done Welsh Government - right at the time when the Severn Tunnel is closed for 3 weeks and the railways are trying to bus as quickly as possible people between Newport & Bristol.

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/new-50mph-speed-limits-come-14792421

No, that's not so . The slower the speed, the greater the capacity. See the M25 and other motorway peak speed limits.

 

[The Planner]

That is as may be, but I think the argument is that this section is variable limit capable so why not just use that system instead of a permanent arrangement otherwise it is a lot of wasted cash, £120m apparently.

 

[HowardGWR]

That is as may be, but I think the argument is that this section is variable limit capable so why not just use that system instead of a permanent arrangement otherwise it is a lot of wasted cash, £120m apparently.

Indeed.

 

[thaitransit]

They could set up a temporary 24/7 bus only lane in both directions for the period of the works. This has ben done elsewhere around the world. Even when it ment just a single car lane available and hours of extra travel time for car users but the buses were ontime and carried more people due giving up on the extra traffic.

 

[The Planner]

Good luck with that!

 

[Lucan]

If you look at a river, where is passes through a narrow point, the flow speeds up. By slowing the traffic at the Newport ‘narrows’ (tunnel) - I think we can expect the tailbacks to be even worse.

Not as simple as that. Because the safe "Highway Code" distance between cars increases more than linearly with speed, the capacity in terms of cars per hour tends to reduce as their speed goes up. OTOH the capacity does not tend to infinity as the speed tends to zero (with the gaps between the cars tending to zero) because cars have a finite length. There is an optimum (I would put the calculation in the margin but the margin is too small ) which is one reason why these speed limits are imposed on busy roads like the M25.

That is all in theory anyway. In reality, many drivers are incapable of keeping to a certain speed limit, so in bottleneck circumstances (when they don't have other cars overtaking them) they feel "exposed" and go even slower to avoid prosecution. Also, many drivers go rabbit-in-headlights under these conditions or go fast-slow-fast-slow. Of course those behind are affected too and flow instabilities are triggered. Other drivers leave massive gaps in front of them through perceived "difficult" conditions, such as through lane-closure bottlenecks or a tunnel, often leaving enough space that could have held four or more cars at normal safe spacing, thus fractioning the road's capacity.

Somewhere on the web I have seen a simulation of cars going round a large circular "motorway" track with features such as lane closures, taking account of driver reaction times etc, and though the sim is set off smoothly it soon degenerates into a stop-start mess, which gets even worse as you set the permitted max speed higher.

On balance though, Envoy will probably be right about the tailbacks.

 

[Nevasleep]

Not a good night, M4 closed Eastbound between 24 and 23A due to accident about 5:30pm - Diversion via A48, A466 and M48 and rejoin M4 at J21, plenty of trapped traffic though, but starting to turn people around looking at cams.
Expected clear: 21/06/18 07:00 (Don't think that is accurate though).

 

[Envoy]

Expect big traffic jams and very full trains 21 June to 24 June due to Ed Sheeran concerts at the Principality Stadium. Also note that traffic is banned from much of central Cardiff.
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/whats...s/ed-sheeran-cardiff-gig-information-14794426

(After the concerts):>
There will be no trains to London Paddington
Rail replacement buses will run from Cardiff Central direct to Bristol Parkway and Bristol Temple Meads.

Arriva Trains Wales is advising customers that Cardiff Central station is expected to be extremely busy on all four days.

After the concerts, fans should use Cardiff Central where a queue system will be in place. Cardiff Queen Street station will be exit only from 10pm so customers will not be able to use Cardiff Queen Street after the concert.

 

[PHILIPE]

When there is a big event in Cardiff there are usually long tail backs along the M4 due principally to the M4 narrowing to 2 lanes through the Brynglas Tunnels. On one occasion there were tailbacks as far as the Tolmarton Junction on the M4, so with a shortage of trains for the Ed Sheeran concerts over the next 4 nights I'm just wondering how the RRBs are going to cope.

 

[Envoy]

3pm Thursday 21 June 2018:> M4 now jammed solid westbound all the way from the Tolls to the Newport Tunnel. And to think that some on this forum don’t want a new M4 built south of Newport. I’m all for rail travel but this situation is intolerable! You can see what is happening here - link will show situation live at time you click it:>
https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@51.5625164,-2.8803133,12z/data=!5m1!1e1

 

[Dai Corner]

3pm Thursday 21 June 2018:> M4 now jammed solid westbound all the way from the Tolls to the Newport Tunnel. And to think that some on this forum don’t want a new M4 built south of Newport. I’m all for rail travel but this situation is intolerable! You can see what is happening here - link will show situation live at time you click it:>
https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@51.5625164,-2.8803133,12z/data=!5m1!1e1

Not just the M4, but congestion is building up at all the usual pinch points in Newport. I'm glad I can walk the shops etc, having missed a meeting the other day because I was caught in traffic.

 

[Envoy]

No doubt that the rail replacement buses are caught in all the congestion.

 

[Nevasleep]

M4 closed again J30 to J28, although between Cardiff and Newport this time, so buses should be fine.

Although still 1h45 between Bristol and Newport. I wonder if it'll be even worse tomorrow.

 

[PHILIPE]

M4 closed again J30 to J28, although between Cardiff and Newport this time, so buses should be fine.

Although still 1h45 between Bristol and Newport. I wonder if it'll be even worse tomorrow.

The Westbound was closed for half an hour for the Air Ambulance to land.

 

[Dai Corner]

M4 closed again J30 to J28, although between Cardiff and Newport this time, so buses should be fine.

Although still 1h45 between Bristol and Newport. I wonder if it'll be even worse tomorrow.

Fridays are pretty bad even when there isn't an event on and more people than usual driving as they can't catch the train.