Ah, so maybe you haven't heard about the Transpennine Express order for 19 AT300 sets
announced today? That's most of the options and 2019 deliveries accounted for.
Yes, I have heard about it, thanks.:roll:
What has an option taken out by First Group - not the DfT or anyone else - got to do with any potential Class 800/802 orders for other routes run by other operators?
That's right - nothing.
And the TPE sets will be built in Japan and County Durham, not Italy, where there will be a whole different production line in a whole different country at a plant that needs new orders to justify Hitachi buying Ansaldo Breda, and will have delivered the confirmed GWR sets in time for the December 2018 timetable change. Even if GWR does get nine more five-car AT300 sets and a Hull Trains order is firmed up too, that's still only going to provide work into the first part of 2019 in Italy.
The TPE sets will be introduced "from December 2019", not by December 2019, suggesting that some, but not all, will be in service at the end of that year - the ones from Japan perhaps - and that a number of them are going to follow the East Coast order down the production line at Newton Aycliffe, an order which is due to completed in early 2020.
I can't see any point in ordering a single new train for XC until wiring of its network spreads far enough to justify use of a bi-mode, never mind a straight electric set - for all the running under wires right now, the fact remains that on the XC core area, with half-hourly service frequencies, you need diesel traction, apart from Birmingham-Manchester.
On the other hand, a modest number of bi-modes for MML to replace all their HSTs plus a number of 222s could make sense, with the displaced 222s going to XC to replace their HSTs and give them some more capacity generally as well. Wiring to Corby by the end of 2019 will displace about four 222s for starters.
And I'd agree with LNW-GW Joint about the likely destination of the 221s used under the wires on West Coast being XC, assuming Alstom finally does come up with a UK-gauge version of the new generation Pendolino for the next West Coast franchise.
More 222s could also move to XC as MML wiring moves north and electric trainsets arrive to replace them, which could also displace any MML bi-modes to XC or GWR, which will also clearly have a long-term need for bi-modes generally, given how far down the line any further electrification in the GW area looks right now and GWR may well need an expansion of its fleet at some point in the 2020s if passenger traffic keeps growing at current rates.
Nor is there likely to be much effort on the ground put into adding overhead wires to a single extra mile of XC's network until all the currently committed schemes are out of the way in 2022-23, so I see little point in it getting bi-modes if 222s can move over in batches as MML wiring spreads - and I know they are not electrically compatible with a 220/221, etc, etc, but nor are the HSTs and they somehow cope with operating those.
There must be a good chance of something like this being proposed, wires from Edinburgh to Derby will be in place in 5 years or so and DfT can't approve enough AT-300s. Probably 5-cars only though and it will be 2020 before there's any capacity for the AT-300 build.
Sorry, where do you get this idea from? The Hendy update says MML wiring to Sheffield is not expected to be complete until December 2023 and does not set any dates for infill wiring in Yorkshire from Sheffield to the likes of Doncaster and Wakefield to link to the ECML. And see above about the availability of AT300 production capacity in Italy from late 2018.
Concentrate the 221s on Bournemouth to Manchester and reactivate the tilt, with Norton Bridge complete and the tilt section between Oxford and Leamington available as well as WCML, there would be scope for a bidder to offer better journey times.
The balises to activate tilt between Oxford and Banbury were switched off when XC stopped using tilt. Someone may know if they are still in place. And tilt only cut two or three minutes off the journey time anyway, which you could probably deliver by other means through various capacity enhancement schemes between Birmingham, Oxford and Didcot.